Technical analysis on gold, silver and copper – Just how solid is this double bottom in gold?
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold joins me to share his technical analysis on gold, silver, and copper. We focuses a lot on the recent double bottom in gold stocks and the gold price. How does it compare to other corrections in gold and just how solid is this bottom?
Take a look at the 1 hour chart for TLT if you want to see something that bodes well for gold (and therefore silver). For stockcharts subs, here it is:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p87769196291
Watch for a volume surge to confirm the low and give us a “textbook” inverse H&S pattern.
Jordan,
Thank you for your blog today and valuable insight it’s greatly appreciated. What you spoke about today is in line with what I’ve been thinking about for a few weeks now. I have found a pattern that goes way back and like you mentioned you need to go back to work and take a look at the prior years and specifically their movements are with volume and patterns. There is something not sitting well with me as well and I have changed tone from about two weeks ago but I mentioned it today just before your blog and posted it I’ve had two reactions I would like to think what others think?
Your mind is telling you guess that the bottom is possibly in 99% but something inside a gut feeling or something for me more than a gut feeling is the pattern that I’m watching now I placed a high probability that the law is not in and I put 51% that that November low is going to be broken and as Matthew has said if it’s going to be done they better be done quickly and quickly it will be done which is showing up in my pattern. If we bring to a higher level that I’m looking at the low is in for gold.
What are the more interesting things you talked about and I think your bang on with Jordan is the length of this correction as mentioned in my post above we are six months into this correction and Corey it is not the longest correction in history there’s been other corrections have lasted longer the parent that I’m flat out watching right now is suggestive I’ve one to possibly two more months of downside that’s why Matthew called it catastrophe.
As I mentioned I don’t pertain to know but I’ve done pretty well the last year or so and everybody’s got their own techniques on formula on charts and even saturation levels so I’m just sharing and sharing is caring nothing more please don’t call me Barash it’s just something I’m looking at and it’s best to at least have it in mind and be prepared if it does come.
Of course my good friend Matthew might argue that this particular moment the frenzy or bearishness is a sentiment that the low could possibly be in or is in and this is true but like Jordan and I’m sure Matthew as well I’ve seen Lowe’s that I thought was 100% guaranteed and they were broken. Monthly perspective I do not like that November little candle again I’ve explained very clearly way above.
In conclusion I would just say that this particular correction is one of very stealthy move with a grain lower and a grain higher and then a bigger grain lower it is what we call untrustworthy and you can leave bears behind as well as balls so it is crucial that we exchange ideas and leave no stone unturned I’m going against my own pattern and that takes a lot of willing guts but I thinkAnd feel very strongly that that November low is going to be broken.
On February 10, 2021 at 8:57 am,
Glenfidish says:
Gold update!
The pattern I’ve been following for sometime continues to show a right shoulder formation being developed of an inverse head and shoulders on gold now approximately over 6 months in progress..Although Im not married to any one system, I double check and triple checked like many of us to see if I’ve missed anything or I’ve picked up on something different.
I’ve read many discussion on this bird of late and there have been many good ones with different opinions on “ bottoms and sideways” action of gold and miners more specifically.
The overall consensus seems to be a bottom is in and although I agree that there nothing more in this world then that of a bottom in gold after so many months correction, I find myself not content with 1. The duration of the correction has been long in the tooth but we didn’t go as far down as I had originally predicted last year with numbers in the $1640-$1680 region. There was an original pattern the one I had put aside but did not completely abandon that keeps smacking me in the head. 2.multiple red flags with monthly gaps not being filled..yes yes I know not all gaps need to be filled now or some might not but a monthly candle not filled is much more powerful then a weekly or daily candle. 3. I don’t like the wick of the monthly candle if that was the November low. Like most bottoms on a monthly the wick tends to be much longer..
There is plenty of food for thought here and I’m not saying the bottom is not in.. of courses if it is in a genius because I will show you the completed chart with the right shoulder in progress now and you will clearly see what I was talking about for the ones who don’t.
But I’ve now moved into a 51% thinking that the bottom is not in and the November low will be broken.. and if this other pattern I’m watching happens to be correct February and March will produce that bottom in gold.. This could be why Mr. bollinger band Doc and I say that with respect has mentioned that from his lenses he is seeing miners go lower and he is in 60% cash if I’m not mistaken. Just be prepared is all I’m saying don’t be a fool to not think it’s not a possibility and this is not directed at anyone it’s just plain common sense that the banks have the lower to do what they want to do and the charts are showing me something I just can’t brush away.
Regardless if we go lower the bears “ banks” will bring it down and the same bulls “ banks” will ride the puppy up!
Glen
Thanks Matt and Glen and Doc. Caution is always in the cards.
Glen, should you scenario play out, it would take gold YEARS to recover the new old time high of $2085. It is not just that the banks would ride the puppy up in short time, them taking gold down to $1600s serves a purpose, pretty much similar to them crushing the $1520 back in 2013. And we know how it went and how it devastated the entire sector.
Norrareal,
Thanks for your thoughts. The trend I’m watching would not take years to recover in fact it would create a very bullish sentiment and powerful move up from that target number I have. So no it would not take years to retracte the all time high and break it. Believe it or not it would fall very close to matthews wishes if within one year of new all time highs..
I recently called the last top before it happened and I was praised by many which was thoughtful. In fact one person said they had not seen such call in a long time and they had seen many.
Again I repeat I’m the first of not one of the first to go against my own pattern and switch and I did it timely. The November low will be broken most certain Iam. And if it doesn’t not I’m ok with my call it just means the current pattern I had been watching is the one. But I’m convinced we are headed lower.
Glen
Glen, I admire you for your bold and correct calls. Yet, I believe the evil cabal is firmly in control of the PM markets and will always be. They do NOT want us plebs to own gold and they will do anything to discourage us. The satanists would rather outlaw it but for the sake of “markets” they might not just do it. The tops in PM have always been and will always be very short while the “corrections” will always be long and outdrawn. They will gold to appreciate by 10-20% over the course of years. But that will be it.
Norrareal,
I 100% agree with your statement regarding cabal/bankers
Norrareal, if they are in total control, why let gold rise at all? Why let it rise 25 fold in the 1970s and 8 fold since 2000? Why would they purposely undermine confidence in their CONfidence-based system? Likewise, why would the Fed, mainstream economists, and the financial press talk gold down so consistently if they were in complete control? The answer is obvious and logical: they wouldn’t. In fact, if they had complete control of it, it would be promoted, not disparaged. The aim of these people is total control so they would love to funnel everyone into an asset in which they arbitrarily set the price. However, since gold is priced in shrinking fiat paper, control of price also means extraordinary (and impossible) control of value. You said yourself that “they do NOT want us plebs to own gold and will do anything to discourage us” and the reason you are right is precisely that they cannot control gold’s value. Gold price manipulation is really USD value manipulation.
If the central planners could declare gold worthless, they would. But they can’t.
FDR made gold illegal just like the other tyrants of his time for a reason: gold protects its holder from the central planners’ schemes to steal wealth (and therefore freedom!) surreptitiously.
Norrareal and Matthew,
Let me rephrase what I meant by 100% correct. I believe that the bankers have the power to push the minors or gold up and down a given moments and can affect price to a certain extent. But that’s !
The charts have been telling us the direction of Gold and it is once due diligence to look at the charts and look at the market perspective and the economics of things and put it all together nobody’s perfect we all make mistakes but you try your best to stay on top of it and read the chart as best as you can. So yes overall there is no 100% market manipulation in my opinion but there is big-time market influence by the bankers and they choose their moments and jump on all at the same time.
Glen
Glen, remember that pullbacks during a powerful bull market tend to end before reaching obvious targets.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54814895560&a=849321722
As mentioned to Ann, I believe 2450 will be reached within a year but it could extend beyond that. If it does so significantly, maybe by 10% or more, it would probably mark a high that will take a minimum of 2 years to overcome. I will have a more precise number for such a top if/when such an extension becomes a probability.
If your wondering has glen been drinking, the answer is no! Voice commentating via iPhone is terrible and I don’t double check. So please reas in between the lines.
Glen
I thought a black candle meant it was tanking, whats a yellow one mean?
Bonds down should put PMs up a bit I would think.
But whadoIno.
Anybody else on the GPL gravy train today? Maybe Musk is buyin’. Up 25+ % on great volume.
Yellow appears on the current candle (furthest right) during trading hours. There should be no yellow now that the day is over.
Solid red = finished below opening price and previous close
Outlined red = opened lower but went higher into the close without finishing above previous close
Solid black = opened higher but fell into the close without finishing below previous close
Outlined black = finished above opening price and previous close
So you can see that the solid red and outlined black candles are opposites.
Bonds have been falling with gold since the two topped last August. Both are seen as safe havens most of the time. Virtually everyone involved in the markets today wrongly believe that bonds are AWAYS a safe haven but they will learn the truth the hard way when the two decouple during this cycle (probably in less than two years). The last time they decoupled and went in opposite directions was in the 1970s. That’s why gold went up 25 fold. The market realized that bonds were no safe haven in times of high price inflation during a bad economy.
Here’s TLT with gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p36317934138
+1 I completely agree about Bond and Gold decoupling over the next 2 years or so, and that was the point being made in that recent piece on the coming sector rotation out of bonds and into gold.
Here’s a weekly version of the above. It’s kinda hard to miss such a correlation…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p83626432242
Absolutely. We’ve been talking about that correlation for many years between TLT and Gold, and used to post “Safety Dance” charts similar to that here on the KER.
However, with interest rates likely to be stuck in a narrow range (let’s say between 0.55% and 1.5% ) then the rate of real inflation rising much higher will eventually cause holding treasuries to be a losing trade, and thus, the rotation out into Gold, since it will continue rising and outpace the inflation. The cheese has moved, and most traditional allocations to “safe havens” will be migrating over to the yellow metal in the years to come. That flood of institutional and pension retirement plan money into the precious metals will be a massive new source of demand.
Men Without Hats – Safety Dance
Ex:
Men without hats…so you are into the pot stocks now…
Ha! Good one David. Honestly, I’ve missed this recent move in Canadian pot stocks, and have considered a number of them, and followed it closely, but just watched them run away, and didn’t want to chase the gains higher. In retrospect, in a speculative bubble, I should have put some funds to work regardless, as one can still make money in bubbles and as valuations go to the moon, when that is the over-riding theme. It works until it doesn’t in a frenzy, so it was mistake on my part not to just dive in over the last few months. I did get into a few psychedelic therapeutic stocks and a few volatile crypto miners though, so I caught some of the recent trending sectors. Really, I’ve been thrilled with the gains in the Uranium stocks, Lithium stocks, Platinum/Palladium stocks, and even some of the Gold & Silver stocks (there are always some popping, even despite many being in a downturn).
Nice move by Jaguar.
Doc, 9 days ago I said I had bought more IRVRF@ 1.40 and you said it could fall down between .50 and .75. Today it got up to 2.06. do you still think it will fall below .75?
maybe if China conquers Japan after Biden gives the CCP the green light.
Yes, JAG had a nice move earlier in the day up to $11.26, but faded into the close down to $10.92, but still, it has been doing great lately and really charging higher.
Coming out of the March sector lows, good ole’ JAG ran up more than 8 times from $1.27 to today’s close of $10.92. Quite the move for a gold producer, and really nice to finally see it getting the rerating it has deserved for some time now.
Well boys even I missed the boat when it comes to the Canadian pots….who knew….guess we all should have known since its been the reddit crowd that has been driving things higher with the Canadian pots.. think it was Charles asking about the US MSO’s and I mentioned the etf MSOS. Here’s a blurb from CNBC that talks about it and the future reevaluation coming for US pot plays when federal approval comes
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/02/10/analyst-on-the-cannabis-stocks-most-vulnerable-to-a-short-squeeze.html
Good points about the Canadian pots overvaluation and US pots undervaluation based on access to the US stocks. It’s counterintuitive, because one would think the Robinhood reddit crowds would have flooded into US names, but apparently they don’t have as good of access to those stocks as they are restricted. That guests point was interesting about how if the federal tax regulations are changed in a positive way in the US so that companies go from operating all cash to more credit, that it will bring in more institutional buyers into US names, where they are currently restricted from buying them until those laws change. In that event, the US names would get rerated much higher. Very interesting developments in this sector and thanks for sharing that clip.
As an interesting anecdotal observation, I’ve had 3 different buddies contact me in the last week about investing, because they knew I spent a few hours a day glued to the glowing screens of the markets. Previous to now, they’ve never expressed any interest in investing, and they finally asked me what kinds of companies I traded. When I mentioned resources & energy stocks like Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, Nickel, Uranium, Lithium, etc… they all turned their noses up. I asked what they were buying, and all 3 said Cannabis stocks, Tesla, other EV stocks, and 1 was looking a cryptos. One guy was up 42% in 2 weeks just using the cannabis ETFs (MJ), (THCX), and (MSOS). I wanted to warn about froth, and not confusing a bull market with brains, but instead just said “good job, and remember to book profits along the way.”
There were a number of articles on main stream financial sites about the massive move in (TLRY) Tilray, where it closed up 51% on the day, and then another 11% in afterhours trading. Those are simply staggering gains, but clearly the pot stocks are getting a bit… high, at these levels.
High indeed lol……Tilray is once again experience a short squeeze just like it did when it went public…..I’ve been a big fan of the US MSO’s obviously and have been getting extra bang from the leverage of the warrants but I’m also really high(doesn’t get old using that reference) on IM Cannabis cuz of the impending Nasdaq listing which will get the robinhood crowd involved I’m sure
Yes, it appears the Reddit/Robinhood mobs have been squeezing the shorts in the cannabis stocks lately, and Tilray is up again in pre-market trading. Relentless buying.
Wolfster, I’ve been looking at IM Cannabis since you have been discussing it, and really appreciate your input on this sector.
I saw kdk getting discussed…..until they get the next set of drill results it it won’t be doing much of anything…..I saw Excelsior (the stock) started to get moving on big volume and then it got halted to announce a .95 financing with warrants attached. Brutal Ex(the stock)
Well I had a nice profitable scalp in Kodiak, and have a remaining position on for the voyage higher. They’re exploration program was announced and there will be anticipation of that, so I’m constructive on it medium term, even if there is some more short-term weakness.
As for the insitu Copper miner Excelsior, it is starting to look like an attractive place to get positioned.
STATS
Earliest Possible Qualified Turn*
Gold and Silver Miners
Up: Thursday (11 Feb)
Down: Next Week
Uranium Miners
Up: Thursday (11 Feb)
Down: Next Week
*Plus/Minus One Day
( 15% / 40% / 45% )
MaxSat (current):
FGOVF (6/7)
GSV (5/7)
JAGGF (6/7)
PLG (6/7)
WRN (5/7)
Alternating days has continued.
PSLV Vs. SLV: The Battle For The Best Silver ETF
Feb. 10, 2021 – Gold Mining Bull – Seeking Alpha
“The PSLV and the SLV are the two largest silver ETFs.”
“PSLV invests in physical silver that’s stored at the Royal Canadian Mint, while SLV’s custodian is JPMorgan.”
“PSLV is a far superior ETF for investors who want exposure to silver prices than SLV, as I argue below.”
“$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust adds 500,000 ounces of physical silver over the past 2 days.”
103,562,183 total ounces of physical silver
$PSLV #Silver #Keepstacking
“It’s a Complete Joke,” Keith Neumeyer Speaks Out Following Silver Squeeze
Stansberry Research – Feb 10, 2021
“In this no holds barred exclusive interview with our Daniela Cambone, Keith Neumeyer, CEO of silver miner First Majestic ($AG), speaks out for the first time since the silver squeeze. “I don’t like seeing that happen, it’s not healthy,” he says, referring to the share price’s explosion through the $30 mark. Neumeyer also emphasizes the insufficiency of the metal to meet the demand of popular silver ETFs such as the $SLV, calling it “a complete joke.” Back in November, the investor had forecasted a collapse of the gold/silver ratio. Since then, it has shrunk from over 100 to 67— and now he predicts it will come down even more.”
Craig Hemke – Silver Squeeze: Buy Silver Bullion & Precious Metals Will Explode
ILoveProsperity – Feb 10, 2021
“In this video we speak with Craig about the silver squeeze. He talks about buying silver bullion, and how buying physical silver is the most important thing. He talks about his price predictions for both gold and silver in 2021, and why it’s important to invest in precious metals.”
Why Gold Stocks Are At The Cheapest Level In Years – David Erfle
Kitco News – Feb 10, 2021
“Relative to the price of gold, gold and silver miners are at their lowest valuations since 2016. David Erfle of TheJuniorMinerJunky.com explains the macroeconomic forces behind low valuations and what this means for investors.”
I bought some more Brixton the last two days on the pull back.
That is likely going to be a great trade Charles, as BBB is pretty oversold and has underperformed most of the Silver & Gold peers over the last 7 months during the corrective move in the PMs, and will likely outperform in the next 7 months when the next leg of the bull market gets going. I repurchased the Brixton position I had sold for tax loss in December on Jan 22nd for this rerating.
Almost repurchased all the shares I had sold too. One more bite at the apple and I will be there. If you told me last August Brixton would be down under 20 cents U.S. I would not have believed it.
Well, I sold 75% of my Brixton shares from last August in 3 tranches on 08/04, 08/07 and 08/10, because it was looking overcooked. Granted this was along with trimming back shares in many companies, because the miners were way overbought, and the BPGDM was flashing readings of 100 for several weeks, so that was a good indicator that there was an intermediate top forming.
The mistake I made was buying those shares back into Brixton for a quick bounce on 08/21 & 08/24. I did trim some on 08/28 for a quick profitable scalp, but held onto the rest of the shares, and finally sold that portion for a tax loss on 12/21.
Overall I made more money in Brixton last year than I lost, but if I’d have just exited in August and stayed out it would have been a bigger win. Now I’m repositioned for 2021 and see Brixton as an easy multi-bagger, like many so many Silver & Gold stocks from current levels, and interested to see things get rerated.
Darn it Charles, now this conversation has me thinking I should increase my position size further in Brixton. Haha! (Decisions…. decisions….)
Yep, I decided to add to my Brixton position today.
Sorry I talked you into more! 😉
Well, it had been a debate about where some funds in my portfolio should go, and Brixton was one of many considerations, so after our dialogue, it just seemed prudent to throw another log on the fire, especially if Brixton may get re-rated higher in a big way later this year. Cheers!
The Crypto Miners are off to the races again today.
Coin Citadel, Hut 8 Mining, Voyager Digital, DMG Blockchain, Hive Blockchain, Argo Blockchain, Cypherpunk Holdings, etc… all moving higher.
Forgot to mention Riot Blockchain, also up in nice double digits on the day.
This page is quite helpful in looking at all the Bitcoin Treasuries (many held by crypto miners, but some held by ETFs, Trusts, and even private companies).
I added a new position in Coin Citadel (CCTL) today, as they have 513 Bitcoins and growing, amongst their other digital assets.
I’m still voyaging higher with my other crypto miners – Argo Blockchain, Hive blockchain, and Cypherpunk Holdings.
Really, I’d prefer to be in Riot and Hut 8, but I feel like they raced away, with double digit gains day after day, so I’m not going to chase them. Still, if there is a big correction in the crypto-verse soon, then those are 2 I’d be looking to add to the portfolio on dips.
My latest Pot pick… Fiore Cannabis, could only get the pink sheet quote, at .31 in Canada today. I own some from the mid twenties.
Fiore Cannabis news, There is more news today but the website has not posted it yet.
I picked up a new position in Mind Medicine (MindMed) in the psychedelic therapeutics space, and also have a position in HAVN Life Sciences in the psy-sector.
Cool, I’m going to check those out.
That psychedelic therapies sector looks to be making it’s big move, similar to what medicinal cannabis did initially a few years back, when the stigmas starting getting removed, and when testing and research came back so favorable to treat a number of medical conditions. In this sector those with the best molecules and the biggest arsenal of molecules submitted to the FDA will have the most opportunities for adoption in treatment. Mind Medicine has the most and is the big boy in the space, and HAVN Life Sciences looks to have great research, many molecules submitted and approved for study, and a good crack at being a winner.
BTW, we are busy in Alberta killing off our pine beetles at -32C, haha. I find the cold air refreshing, calming, unique (As most of the world simply fears it and does not embrace it and will NEVER experience it) and, of course, challenging. I remember walking to school in Calgary in the sixties with substandard winter clothing and tears in my eyes.
It’s funny you say that as my lady and I have been going out most day for really brisk walks by the water or in the mountains, and it typically is in the low 30’s to high 20’s, and we enjoy the crisp air and find it refreshing (if properly dressed), but I don’t want to go down to -32 as that is too cold and causes ones breath to crackle, hair to freeze and break, and tears in the eyes to nearly freeze to one’s face. Yikes!
Crypto going mainstream: Mastercard to allow payments in cryptocurrencies
11 Feb, 2021 09:09 / Updated 9 hours ago
https://www.rt.com/business/515221-mastercard-cryptocurrency-payments-2021/
I see this as a big hit to gold.
America’s Oldest Bank Adopts Cryptocurrencies, Will Treat Bitcoin “As Any Other Asset”
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/americas-oldest-bank-adopts-cryptocurrencies
So much for the bitcon idea.
The 1 hr chart looks like silver is rolling over to me.