Markets and Metals – Is now the time to go long gold?
It was a roller coaster ride for gold this week. After a major drop on Sunday night/Monday morning gold closed the week pretty much where it ended last week.
On this weekend’s show we focus on what’s going to drive the next price move. It’s a balance discussion so there are some words of caution.
Please keep in touch by emailing us at either Fleck@kereport.com or Shad@kereport.com.
We hope you all enjoy this Weekend’s Show!
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder of the Felder Report joins us to discuss the environment of negative rates and the down trending gold price. We also balance the argument that gold is not an inflation hedge.
- Segment 3 – Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report breaks down the flash crash in gold.
- Segment 4 – Doc Jim Jones, Private Investor wraps up the hour with his thoughts on money velocity and the macro environment fold gold.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- Golden Minerals – Updates on the wrap up of production at the Rodeo Mine and exploration plans at 2 projects
- KER Webinar Replay – Elemental Royalties – Revenue Growth, Asset developments and 2021 Outlook
- Calibre Mining – Recapping High grade drill results from the Eastern Borsi Project and strong Q2 financial results
- Allegiant Gold – Follow up on the best hole ever drilled at the Eastside Project, yielding 148meter of 2.6g/t gold
- KER Webinar Replay – Novo Resources
- SilverCrest Metals – Macro comments on fund flows and real rates, plus a constructions update from the Las Chispas Project
- Novamera – Starting full scale field trials for Sustainable Mining by Drilling
- Andean Precious Metals – Silver Production in Bolivia with 20,000 meters of exploration drilling ongoing
- KWESST Micro Systems – Brandon Tatum discusses the 2 primary markets for the low energy cartridge system
that’s naturalnews.com
Not to hijack things but has why has Irving Resources drifted down to a $1 US a share in the last few days. Did I miss some bad news??? Was this just some of the usual insanity we live in these days???
Irving. I haven’t checked lately but covid restrictions, bureaucracy more than most and fungus on the miners has slowed it down in the past.
Mike, I wouldn’t read much into the action since it is consistent with that of the rest of the sector. Everything has taken a dip recently so bearish sentiment is still very high and extra irrational. I doubt that something fundamental has changed.
The stock finished the week up over 8%, over 9% off its low, a good sign that the washout could be over.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IRVRF&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p18870180356&a=1009397621
Disclosure: I do not own Irving Resources.
Mathew thanks!
I do own it and while I missed the sub $1 lows I bought more at $1.02 US. If you look at the news it is all good – talk about throwing the baby out with the bath water –
We will see –
Mike
For what it’s worth and right or wrong, I would have happily acted as you did based on the chart and my opinion of the sector in general right now.
Japan shut down mining around WWII and was slow coming back. I think there was an in-country shortage of people with mining skills and Irving had to import people from Canada, and then Covid locked up the Japan for a catch 22 situation. This is recall from last year or before. Not sure if that has continued. They also were going to ship diggings out of country which maybe ran into the same issues. Try ceo.ca Irving and see what discussions are there.
Jesse, Craig and Doc Jim. What a trio to draw to. Thanks, Cory.
Here’s a fourth great interview from this week: ttps://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Market-Analysis/3562/2021-08-13/Gold-is-only-option-once-Fed-puts-gun-to-its-head-and-crashes-stocks-by-50—Michael-Gentile#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DMarket-Analysis
For sure worth the listen, thank you for posting.
The Haitians have suffered yet another devastating earthquake, The World should ask The Clintons to return the money that went missing after the last earthquake.
To the point about the consumer borrowing affecting the increase in the velocity of money in the Doc Jones segment. He mentioned that banks are not really lending much, and that there is a lack of demand of loans, but the data is definitely showing an increase in borrowing recently and, not surprisingly, it has been paired with an increase in inflation as more money is finally circulating through the system.
________________________________________________________
Consumer Borrowing in U.S. Surged in June by Most on Record
Reade Pickert – August 6, 2021
U.S. consumer borrowing surged in June by the most on record, reflecting large increases in credit-card balances and non-revolving loans.
Total credit jumped $37.7 billion from the prior month after an upwardly revised $36.7 billion gain in May, Federal Reserve figures showed Friday. On an annualized basis, borrowing increased 10.6%. The June gain exceeded all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey which had a median projection of $23 billion.
Revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, climbed $17.9 billion — the second-largest increase on record. Non-revolving credit, which includes auto and school loans, rose $19.8 billion.”
“The broader reopening of the economy has allowed Americans to go out and spend on services such as meals out and travel, activities that were largely curbed during the height of the pandemic. What’s more, vehicle sales remained elevated in June.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-borrowing-u-surged-june-192153555.html
U.S. Consumer Credit Grows At Record Rate In June
8/6/2021 – Reuters
“U.S. consumer credit grew at the fastest rate ever in June, as Americans increased their credit card usage to drive consumer spending in the second quarter, data from the Federal Reserve showed on Friday.”
“The surge in June could explain the sustained robustness in consumer spending during last quarter, even as the flow of stimulus money from the government ebbed.”
Experian India’s Neeraj Dhawan flags the stress in consumer and personal loans
Venkatasubramanian K – (08/09/2021)
“The unsecured loan segment, which includes cards and personal loans, has grown exponentially in the last 18 months. Now, there seems to be an impact that is visible in some of these segments, with rising NPAs.”
“We see an increase in the 30 Days Past Due (DPD) for consumer, personal and two-wheeler loans.”
NY Fed: Household Debt Nears $15T Amid Rise In Mortgage, Auto Loan Originations
By PYMNTS.com – August 3, 2021
Household debt increased by $313 billion (2.1 percent) in the second quarter of 2021, hitting a total of $14.96 trillion, according to information from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data, which was released on Tuesday (Aug. 3).
“The total debt balance is now $812 billion higher than at the end of 2019. In addition, the 2.1 percent rise in aggregate balances was the biggest increase since the fourth quarter of 2013. It is also the biggest nominal increase in debt owed since the second quarter of 2007, per the report. Mortgage balances increased by $282 billion to stand at $10.44 trillion at June’s end.”
“We have seen a very robust pace of originations over the last four quarters, with new extensions of credit for mortgages and auto loans combined with rebounding demand for credit card borrowing,” said Joelle Scally, administrator of the Center for Microeconomic Data at the New York Fed. “However, there are still two million borrowers in mortgage forbearance who are vulnerable to financial distress once the forbearance programs come to an end.”
https://www.pymnts.com/debt/2021/ny-fed-household-debt-nears-15t/
Again, there is little doubt in looking over the data that there is an increase in debt, and a solid increase in new loans and new money creation, which absolutely leads the increase in the velocity of money and in inflation being reflected in the system (like it has been).
The narrative that everyone is all cashed up and sitting pretty from the 3 stimulus checks is not jiving with the higher debt levels in households, and that is because it negates the fact that many people lost their jobs, lost their small businesses, and many 2 income families went down to 1 income families. The housing market has remained rabidly bid over the last 2 years, car loans are increasing, personal loans for home repairs and paying down debt, and even wedding loans are in the increase.
This is in stark contrast to what we saw coming out of the 2008/2009 Great Financial Crisis where consumer lending fell sharping in the years to follow, and where Quantitative Easing from the Fed was siloed in financial institutions that used it to mask their toxic balance sheets, and then piled into into the general markets containing the inflation from new money supply there, which juiced the stock indexes.
This time around, with the Payment Protection Plan loans to small businesses going directly to companies (that didn’t all get used as planned for payroll, and many businesses used creative means to pay their inner circle much of that and it went into the marketplace of goods), and the stimulus checks did get directly into goods and services, thus increasing for the first time in over a decade real inflation.
Not all the inflation was simply supply chain issues, or base effects from year over year, and it will end up proving not to be “transitory” despite the FED’s efforts to jawbone people into that narrative (because they can’t afford to hike rates too much with the massive balance sheets of debt they are holding that would become unserviceable).
Lastly, as we are all aware, the government CPI readings are a terrible way of measuring debt in the first place and leave a LOT of data out, which skews the reading to the downside. Real inflation is and has been picking up over the last year and will continue to run hotter than many expected after 2 decades of sideways to low inflation.
The false narrative that gold didn’t do well as an inflation hedge over the last 2 decades is misleading, because we didn’t have inflation showing up in the metrics during that time, and we didn’t have an increase in the velocity of money until recently. Over the last year where government fiscal policy changed to where money was pumped directly to end users through the PPP and stiumulus checks paired with a big increase in lending and new loans = new money creation is a different environment, and the inflation will not just be transitory.
Jesse Felder did an excellent job of making that point in his segment this weekend, and Trader Vic summed this point up perfectly in last weekend.
For anyone that missed Trader Vic’s segment last weekend on the increase in inflation and the velocity of money, then here it is in Segment #3:
Ex – As always thanks –
I subscribe to the basic versions of RealVision and Grant Williams sites. Grant just published a stunning interview with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital in the “End Game” series. One thing that Howell pointed out that liquidity in the US is moving to a economy like Japan’s where 4 of 5 dollars are involved in refinancing debt. That is a stunning idea – most of money flow is to refinance, not to do something new and productive in the environment.
Great point Mike, and that just goes to show if people are paying down so much debt that things aren’t quite so rosy and people aren’t sitting on loads of money from the stimulus checks or the government handouts in as wealthy of fashion at as is being presented in the mainstream financial media. Having said that, there are still plenty of loans being originated for homes autohomes, autos, RVs, boats, small business investment, fencing, home repairs weddings et cetera, and that is putting new money into circulation.
Please see:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwVIBUsHIVk
Yikes!
Ex, the poisons are there, overproduction of capital, credit buying and buying with stock market profits, the maintenance of an artificial price level for many commodities, the depressed condition of European trade. The rise of China and the shifting of The US industrial base to Asia. A major depression is underway. People no longer think for themselves, we are living in an altered world.
Great points DT on the financial poisons in the well and people living in an altered world.
Mike – Thanks for posting that video from Cross Border Capital on the global capital flows and liquidity trends, where he feels we are at peak liquidity and money flows, and that things will start to trend lower in the years to come. A very interesting take on things for sure.
Wedding Loans Among Youth See 11% Rise During The Second Wave
LiveMint – 11 Aug 2021
Wedding Loans On The Rise In 2nd wave of Covid-19
Business Today – August 14, 2021
I got married at City Hall, paid the clerk’s fee of $50, held the reception in the living room of my home and borrowed a sound system from a friend. My wife’s ring was purchased at McTamney’s pawn brokerage. There was plenty to eat and drink and everyone had a good time, the cost was less than $500. Getting a wedding loan starts a relationship off on a bad footing. Mind you that was a few years ago but many weddings are huge affairs that can run into ten’s of thousands of dollars and the debt leaves a hangover for many years. Not a good way to start out a marriage from my perspective.
Good point DT. For years when I’d drive around Nashville heading to appointments, I’d listen to the debt thought leader Dave Ramsey, as he was a local legend with a nationally syndicated radio show, mainly geared around not making stupid financial decisions and taking on obscene amounts of debt to go to college, to get married, to buy vehicles, to fund exotic vacations etc….
There were so many show segments where he advised new couples not to put themselves into the financial hurt locker and get off on the wrong foot with a very expensive wedding or wedding rings that they couldn’t really afford based on their incomes. There was one show I remember where he had people call in and simply state how much their wedding ring cost, how much the wedding cost, and how many years they’d been married, and it was stunning how many people had lasted the longest with very modest rings and ceremonies. Conversely, there were also people that called in discussing their very expensive wedding rings and lavish and ridiculously expensive ceremonies and receptions that got divorced in a relatively short amount of time afterwards, and yet were still saddled with the debt burden.
People are people though, and when they make important financial decisions emotionally or for status, instead of logically with good common sense, then the outcome is a painful lesson to learn.
We couldn’t have asked for a better performance from gold following that huge plunge last Sunday night.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p50514070510&a=910721792
We’ve got a huge weekly bull hammer reversal and terrible sentiment. Perfect.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p79100341007&a=932118912
I found the divergent views of Jesse Felder and Doc Jones fascinating. Both made good points, but I tend to side with Jesse Felder’s view. Doc Jones seems to discount the inflation story that all those job openings will create. Employers will be battling to keep, hire and retain employees for a long time now that the baby boom generation is retiring in force.
Agreed Charles. In addition to the rise in commodities over the last year affecting input pricing in parallel with the rising wages to attract and keep talent in the labor pool, which typically leads to cost-push inflation.
And the Chinese are back piling into their favorite miner, Zijin on double to triple the average daily volume.
I have read a number of articles, though I can’t put my finger on them at the moment, that suggest the “hot retail” housing market is an illusion in the sense that the largest rental companies are in there buying pushing up prices.
Jesse mentions boomers retiring as being one reason for a shrinking labor force. Another reason mentioned by Neil Howe was the 4,000,000 ‘long haulers’. Add those factors together and it’s plain that wages will be rising.
Jesse and Doc argue different points but in some respects see different affects/outcomes from the inflation and growth of money supply. Doc’s timeline is further out then Jesse’s. I’ll go with Jesse and look for higher gold by the end of the year. I question the statement that GDP will grow drastically for the next two years.
Silverdollar, I agree with you except for your last line. GDP measures inflation/currency debasement more than real economic activity/growth/contraction at this point and we are approaching some non-linear, chaotic lurches on that front.
We need to get the last decade completely out of our heads, lest we become sheeple, right Terry! 😉
It would seem to me that if GDP grows drastically, the general equity markets will find that reason to climb even higher. If that happens, those funds chasing stocks won’t be looking for another home, like PMs. I really feel that equities have to break before we see some shifting into PMs. JMO
SD, your reasoning is correct but nominal GDP growth in this environment would probably come with slowing or stagnating real growth. Real profits and profit margins could shrink due to rising costs/overhead. The stock market could could double nominally while getting halved in real terms. That’s not a prediction but possibilities that could explain the stock market continuing higher while the miners have a bull market. In short, stocks and bonds will push smart money to bid on the sector with the far superior risk-reward profile that is fully backed by stellar fundamentals and therefore a true bull market (i.e., a bull market in real terms, net of inflation).
Keep in mind that between 2002 and 2008, the XAU almost quadrupled while the S&P 500 doubled. In other words, the miners performed nearly three times as well as stocks (nearly 300% vs 100%). Here’s the really bad thing for both of those asset classes that won’t be present this time: Gold went up nearly 250% between 2002 and 2008. That’s right, real money went up 3.5 times versus the senior money substitute, USD. So, stock holders were cut in half when they thought they had doubled AND paid substantial capital gains taxes for the opportunity! XAU investor beat gold but not by enough to justify the risks they took to do so.
Today, however, the fundamentals have vastly improved for the miners so we are going to have a huge bull market even if gold rises in an unexciting manner from here.
I hope this quarterly chart works. It shows 50 years of Dow vs Gold and the real potential for a huge bullish breakout by the end of this quarter. Conversely, it also happens to show the potential for a huge bearish breakout if gold finally starts a new intermediate uptrend and rises much more quickly than stocks for the remainder of the quarter. The ratio could be indecisive until the 4th quarter but I doubt it.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88342823847&a=954530030&r=1628974089187&cmd=print
Dow:Gold did barely just deliver its first weekly MACD buy signal in over a year but gold seems well positioned now to pull the rug out from under it.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27426087830&a=920888204
GDP measures a lot of uneconomic activity like war and some activities of FIRE sector. If I help my neighbor plant a garden, no effect on GDP.
GDP measures money supply growth more than anything, fake money, that is.
Matthew, that’s a very interesting point on the XAU versus S&P 500 performance from 2002 – 2008, and what that meant to investors in both nominal US Dollar terms as well as in real money Gold terms. Thanks!
I tend to agree with Jesse’s point overall, which resonates with trader Vic’s point last weekend, that the creation of new money especially through new loans and government stimulus, that is now in the end user’s hands, and circulation in the economy will increase velocity of money will also lead to inflation and pricing.
When the fed has to hike their rates, admitting inflation is not transitory, then gold will be the beneficiary. Doc Jones point about a strong dollar and low growth and inflation, with global investors piling in and biddinh up the greenback as a safe haven is more in line with Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake theory.
I tend to lean toward Jessie also. My biggest issue is I don’t have confidence in technical charts that appear fabricated by intervention. I do believe that distortions in markets can be overcome by a backlash from true market action that overcomes intervention. When looking at fundamentals, Some bad stuff is still out there which is metals favorable. There are also some good stuff like infrastructure spending that is metals positive. We are due for another couple months of good performance as that is all we usually get before they unload the irrational again. The current glitch is getting through the alternative fraud universe of Jackson Hole. Disney has nothing on the Fed.
Those last 2 lines were great David regarding the alternative fraud universe of Jackson Hole and Disney having nothin on the Fed. We are in fantasy land… that is for sure.
Partial credit is good…🥴
+1 for: “I do believe that distortions in markets can be overcome by a backlash from true market action that overcomes intervention.” Well said.
Pretty soon I will have a passing grade. 🤭
Apparently anti-white infrastructure spending bill (3:30): https://therightstuff.biz/2021/08/14/ftn-431-lgbtgop/
I believe we’re facing a period of disinflation (rate of inflation will slow) once the stimulus is over —–this should be transitory but will take a few months to reestablish itself. U of M consumer sentiment indicators have plunged significantly. This is an artificial economy and GDP will probably not meet expectations in the future and we will be right back where we were pre pandemic requiring ever greater money printing to keep the ship afloat. The precious metals are not going to see those higher levels predicted by “Jesse” for the end of the year. We have further work to repair the technical damage to the charts for the PMs. When you see this kind of damage it is rare for a sudden resurgence to higher levels—it takes a lengthy bottoming process to work back higher over time.
DOC,
I want to agree with but I’m comparing charts now with December 2015/early 2016 and the technical damage back then was horrible too. There was literally no hope for recovery for a long time, commentators on KER were predicting gold to go down under $800 (around the cost of mining)
Cali, that’s a legitimate point however we were in that U shaped bottoming process that I talked about infinitum back then and had come off the highs of 2011 and 2012. If you look at the monthly charts back then (2011 and 2012) and now we’re coming off of a similar high and the MACDs of both highs are scaringly similar and we’ve not even bottomed yet. Also, look at some of the monthly charts of PM stocks that are finally getting hit and they’ve not even bottomed yet and reveal a few more months before they bottom. What we’re about to experience in the next couple of months on some of the weekly charts is a double bottoming with the lows back in March of 2020. For a lot of the stocks we won’t get that low but they’ll get low enough to constitute a double bottom. Irving which was discussed above is already there and looks like it will take out its’ low in March of 2020. It’s sending a message that we are far off from any major move for gold to take out its’ last high. But that’s okay since buying opportunities will abound and a lot of these miners are in the best shape financially that we’ve seen in years with positive cash flows. Some of the leadership are acting more responsibly then we’ve seen in years and when we get the next run in the PM prices some of these companies will be oozing profits and cash flow.
CaliJoe, the technical damage and overall technical picture back then were actually much worse in several significant ways.
Maybe the U shaped bottom is taking it’s time?
We may have another one but it certainly should not be the length of the one of 2011 and 2012. The next move higher should come much sooner then the one off the highs of 2011 and 2012.
Another indicator that we’re starting a bottoming process and consolidation period is volume indicators. If you look at multiple PM stock charts, volume is starting to dry up.
Good discussion Doc & CaliJoe.
America will have to accept the fact that there is coming a breakdown in their standard of living. The outcome in business will be alarming. The politicians will promote the building of public works, but the public is faced with politicians that have no clue about what to do. The political elite will no longer be able to proclaim that everything will be alright.
Where’s CNN and FOX or how about Trump and Schwarzenegger on this?
Dr. Charles Hoffe explains how he has tested his patients who have received the COVID-19 shots and that 62% of them show blood clotting and permanent damage as a result. “The worst is yet to come.”
https://www.bitchute.com/video/ChQwQBggc8TL/
For those who might exclaim that this is a conspiracy theory, sorry, the D-dimer test doesn’t lie.
Perhaps CNN and Fox, Trump and Schwarzeneggar took into account the story behind your physician expert, Charles Hoffe. A rural British Columbia physician dismissed from his hospital ER position last april. And yes the D-dimer test doesn’t lie, but those interpreting its results do when it fits their hope for hysteria fame. Attached is a link to the story behind this guy.
https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/news/despite-claims-by-lytton-doctor-interior-health-says-covid-19-vaccines-are-safe-1.24311020
Over 80% of 35M+ Canadians have been vaccinated with at least one dose, and well over 60% with two doses. According to Hoffe’s sciences where 62% are potentially going to suffer deadly blood clots, Canada is doomed. Their chances of survival are better in present day Kabul Afghanistan.
Similar science to that posted earlier of 99% of hospitalized Australians for covid were all vaccinated, the lucky 1% were the non vaccinated.
News of India’s defeat of the Delta variant should be common knowledge. It is just about as obvious as the nose on one’s face. It is so clear when one looks at the graphs that no one can deny it.
Yet, for some reason, we are not allowed to talk about it. Thus, for example, Wikipedia cannot mention the peer-reviewed meta-analyses by Dr. Tess Lawrie or Dr. Pierre Kory published in the American Journal of Therapeutics.
Jonsyl, it is well-established that the sheeple prefer to believe big and unthinkable lies to little ones.
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/joseph-goebbels-on-the-quot-big-lie-quot
Jonsyl has earned the badge.
I’m sure most of the people here have heard this, Professional Gamblers have a saying, “How do you spot a sucker in the room”. A sucker is the person who doesn’t realize they are being played, and if you can’t spot the sucker you are the mark. Remember this Ex when you are writing your book on gambling. DT
Good points DT. Like Kenny Rogers informed us all in his song The Gambler:
You got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sitting at the table
There’ll be time enough for counting
When the dealing’s done
“Every gambler knows
That the secret to surviving
Is knowing what to throw away
Knowing what to keep
‘Cause every hand’s a winner
And every hand’s a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep”
Sherritt International Corporation reports strong nickel and Cobalt Production in Q2 SYL-S- TSX
Sherritt a World leader in Mining and Hydrometallurgical refining of nickel and cobalt- market cap $168 million last price on The TSX 42.5 cents CDN
Kabul falls on 15 August, 2021. Nixon closed the gold window, August 15, 1971. Exactly 50 years! Coincidence………..or fate?
+50
Wall Street Journal Proves It Doesn’t Understand Gold
By John Rubino ◆ August 13, 2021
“Gold bugs should never assume that the mainstream investing community actually understands finance. That includes the Wall Street Journal, which recently published an article (Gold as an Inflation Hedge: What the Past 50 Years Teaches Us) purporting to show that gold does not protect against a depreciating currency.”
“Its conclusion? Pretty much everything has gone up since the US left the gold standard in 1971, and the things that went up most – stocks — are by definition the best “inflation hedges,” while bonds are just about as good as gold.”
“So what’s wrong with this argument? Simply put, gold is not an “investment”. It is money. You don’t own it in place of Amazon stock or Treasury bonds, you own it in place of the dollars that might otherwise be in your pocket, your bank account, or under your mattress. Here’s a picture that’s as clear as the previous one is obscure.”
Two piles of dollars and coins. The one on the right is the amount that was required to buy an ounce of gold in 1920. The other, massive pile is the number of dollars it takes to buy an ounce of gold today. The upshot: gold has protected its owners’ purchasing power while the dollar has been depreciated to oblivion. That is the definition of “inflation hedge.”
BTW – That Wall Street Journal article that John Rubino references there, is the same one that Jesse Felder deconstructs in his segments on this weekend show. Sadly for many people that read that article in the WSJ tearing into Gold as an ineffective inflation hedge will not understand or consider the points Jesse made or that John just made.
Gold Stocks: A Tradeable Rally Now?
Morris Hubbartt – Aug 13, 2021- Super Force Precious Metals #Video #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold Continues To Rally Now Just $19 Shy Of $1800
Gary Wagner – The Gold Forecast – August 13, 2021 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis
“In yesterday’s opening letter, we talked about the potential for gold to stage a corrective upside rally based upon our current Elliott wave count using daily charts. Today we saw another 29 dollars taking gold prices substantially higher. As of 5:34 PM EST, Gold futures basis the most active December 2021. Comex contract is currently fixed at $1781.50, after factoring in today’s net gain of $29.70.
Today’s continuation to the upside is a result of dollar weakness, as well as data released by the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which fell to 70.2 in August. This is the lowest level since the most difficult period of the pandemic in April 2020. In July, the consumer sentiment index was at 81.2.”
“According to Brian Lundin, editor of the gold newsletter and reported by MarketWatch, “Gold futures had become “oversold” following sharp losses last Friday and on Monday. The rebound in prices seen since then is “largely due to investor recognition that the crash was simply short-term market manipulation and no real reflection on the supply/demand dynamics for the metal.” He also told MarketWatch that, “the market has also seen “growing concerns over the delta variant and the economic repercussions from its spread, as evidenced by the dramatic fall in consumer sentiment” reported Friday. It’s all contributing to a general view that gold is undervalued at these levels.”
“Unquestionably gold pricing has been more volatile than we have seen in recent months as a result of two opposing forces. The strength of the global economic rebound which is occurring concurrently with a rebound of the infection rates of the delta variant of the Covid 19 virus. Add to that the current uncertainty as to when the Federal Reserve will begin to taper and return to a pre-pandemic monetary policy in terms of asset accumulations. Currently the belief is interest rates will remain between zero and 25 basis points most likely until the beginning of 2023. However, many analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its quantitative easing monetary policy early next year.”
Should You Be Buying Gold Miners Right Now?
by Sean Brodrick | August 14, 2021
https://wealth-wave.com/wealth-wave/buying-gold-miners-right-now/
Like the News… what news…. lol….. 🙂
Great point OOTB. We’ve been talking about the consolidation of power into the 3 big news companies for a long time here this blog, and how their “narrative” is the manufactured story that the vast majority of other news outlets simply parrot.
Most citizens (and most “news” outlets) rarely question where this supposed “news” is sourced from in the first place. Meanwhile the big 3 news sources force their biased reporting on the many smaller news organizations, and on then on the unwitting populace. Few trace things back to the source and where these creators of “news” and purveyors of “truth” derive their pompous position of intellectual superiority (because it certainly isn’t from real reporting and balanced journalism).
At least that piece you linked above spells it out (again) for the masses, that they are being handed the ‘news” that the Big 3 biased organizations want them to have.
Let them eat cake…
__________________________________________________________________________
From the piece linked above:
“The Invisible Nerve Center of the Media System”
“So what are the names of these agencies that are “always at the source of the story”? There are now only three global news agencies left:”
1) “The American Associated Press (AP) with over 4000 employees worldwide. The AP belongs to US media companies and has its main editorial office in New York. AP news is used by around 12,000 international media outlets, reaching more than half of the world’s population every day.”
2) “The quasi-governmental French Agence France-Presse (AFP) based in Paris and with around 4000 employees. The AFP sends over 3000 stories and photos every day to media all over the world.”
3) “The British agency Reuters in London, which is privately owned and employs just over 3000 people. Reuters was acquired in 2008 by Canadian media entrepreneur Thomson – one of the 25 richest people in the world – and merged into Thomson Reuters, headquartered in New York.”
“In addition, many countries run their own news agencies. These include, for instance, the German DPA, the Austrian APA, and the Swiss SDA. When it comes to international news, however, national agencies usually rely on the three global agencies and simply copy and translate their reports.”
Thanks EX
And rt is suspect? 😉
Hedge funds into media also by consolidating a bunch of local papers in all size markets, wiping out newsrooms that report on local news, draining their treasuries and walking away. Another example of deregulation and letting special interests control.
Everyone should watch this interview with Dr. Ryan Cole…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUE5EBPt-lU
Offtopic here but best comment I read on ZH on Afghanistan situation.
“This is what happened to the USSR about two years before their collapse. Foreshadowing?”
Dump at about 9:30 EST. Must be the same guy from last week seeing if he can get a worse price in gold.
(BWCG) Blackwolf Positioned Well for Commodity Super-Cycle
by @GoldTelegraph on 10 Aug 2021
“The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, a basket of nearly two dozen raw materials, continues to trade close to its 10-year high, indicating that this “transitory” inflation narrative that central banks continue to push is far from the truth.”
“Copper is up nearly 50% over the past year, and this comes during a time the global copper market could see significant disruption due to strike disruptions at three mines in Chile that have come in effect; Chile is the world’s largest copper producer.”
Currently, workers at the biggest copper mine in the world, Escondida, owned by BHP, rejected a final wage offer in voting last week.
“If they can’t find a resolution this week, the market may be left without production from a project that churned out 1.2 million metric tons last year.”
“Two smaller mines (Codelco’s Andina and JX Nippon Mining & Metals’ Caserones) are currently going through the same process regarding their collective bargaining.”
“This potentially disrupts 7% of the world’s copper population if a resolution can’t be finalized shortly.”
https://ceo.ca/@goldtelegraph/blackwolf-positioned-well-for-commodity-super-cycle
Dead Horse Report: horse still dead
Not what we want to see. Equities lose ground, gold inches up and no confidence producers continue to languish and go down. Best to watch the paint dry.
CNN is praising the Taliban for responsibly wearing masks as they seize power.
bonzo, You simply have to be kidding! But, unfortunately you have your comment documented. What is happening to the world!
Al, The US rhetoric about making the world safe for democracy is dangerous and hypocritical nonsense. The US needs to stop telling others how to live, they can’t even get their own house in order.
ALL government employees around the world need to stop telling people how to live. They get away with it only because most people are idiots on important matters.
The spirit of anti- Christ isn’t just lurking in the shadows anymore, it’s brazenly provoking the world into submission
NSRPF – Added @ $1.52
5 more trading days until I can rebuy Eloro and Novo. Took tax losses.
Michael Boutros on Gold (31:20) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVw74Yzznu4
I just checked my shares, dead, zero interest.
ipt didnt move even with a jump in price of PMs.
dead dead dead, can we not even get a dead animal bounce?
First time I’ve seen it this dead, I wonder if Mr Oliver is right, a surprise explosion in price.
/GC daily…critical price point..Resistance at trend line and bottom of neutral TAS profile in blue dash….failure to take out this Resistance would be a serious failure in IMHO…price is above OUL but it is below its zero line and negative as used….more i look it is supercritical…we will all find out soon enough…glta
https://tos.mx/8Jtkx0n
i just did this the Matthew way…so interesting when add a pitchfork…glta
https://tos.mx/nPH6aVj
Nice, Larry. Now check this out. GLD is doubled forked at the moment. A breakout here will be a double breakout:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p45481609740&a=1010450556
No forked tongue in sight
that is pretty shocking use of pitchfork analysis…..i mentioned that i am constructing up a set of charts using the Matthew Method…everything takes me too much time…lmao…In this situation i admit the use of both pitchforks to show confluence is interesting to say the least….in my approach both the bigger and smaller swing points are struggling at the .382 retracement zone..which is not all that common……and needs to be overcome…interesting…really…
It’s really as if nothing is random.
Here’s weekly GLD versus UUP (with Fib fan and fork):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83086293126&a=970007413
right..i suppose the assumption has to be that they will not both go in the same direction for much time and that the fork holds …i really never gave much credence to the fork stand deviation game until you showed it live in a practical app Matthew…thanx…i think everyone gets your system in its clarity….mine is much more of a muddled message…
“Nothing is random…”. You are starting to talk my language….
Yes, forks are pretty straight forward for the most part. There are some “tricks” to them as with most tools/approaches but anyone can use them without a lot of study.
I pay attention to impulse legs and targets derived from them and do my best to get a handle on strength/momentum readings but don’t bother posting about them except superficially. My approach to strength/momentum is too detailed and tedious to tempt me to post about it.
The combination of time and our funny money monetary system makes strength/momentum the most important consideration of all to my way of investing and speculating especially as it pertains to sector kingpins like gold or other large sector leaders/bellwethers.
David, maybe but maybe not. Manipulation is real and common but that’s not what I was referring to.
I take it that “nothing random” means you have a handle on most variables rather than intervention. That is a difference and gives me hope as your charts still give hope for an exit from the slime.
What I’ve seen over the years on my charts completely defies belief. It’s nature pure and simple but unexplainable by anyone. Too many of the occurrences I’ve seen are too obscure and complicated to have anything to do with manipulation and I’m not talking about things like that double fork I posted above. It really seems that fate is real and free will is not. I know that seems nuts.
Regarding the exit from the slime, it is inevitable at least for long enough to make a lot of money. The sudden, non-linear repricing of assets that seems extra common these days is a byproduct of intervention (official or otherwise) but is also natural just as often. Either way, “they” will never win once and for all but neither will we. The opportunities will just keep coming along with the risks. Make that knowledge “good enough” because that’s the way it is… and seize the day.
Matthew:
I have to think about the things you are saying, but I am attempting to seize whatever moments I can. Thanks for your comments.
Hey Larry, I added the 6 month MA to the GLD chart and guess what?…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p53417039883&a=1010450556
what da?..lmao
Looks like the guys who own and founded ceo.ca are staying with the company. The buy-in or out is evidently a guy from New Found Gold.
Swiss Police Reject the ‘Great Reset’: ‘We Work for the People, NOT the Elite’
I hope everyone heard the interview of RFK, Jr on naturalness.com and the testimony of Dr. Zelenko to the rabbinical court in Israel.