Dave Erfle – Optimism That The Precious Metals Sector Has Bottomed And Has Turned Higher

Shad Marquitz
November 16, 2021


David Erfle, Founder and Editor of Junior Mining Junky, joins us to review why he believes we’ve seen the precious metals sector bottom and turn higher after the Fed taper and hotter October CPI inflation reading. We start off with the realization from the broader investing community and media that inflation is sticking around, and the growing concern about the Fed’s ability to effectively deal with this through their policy tools.


Next we discuss the larger macro backdrop that pushed gold, the GDX, and GDXJ above key resistance levels.  Dave highlights the key $1900 overhead resistance on the monthly and quarterly charts, that he would like to see Gold close above to build more momentum and bring in more investors.

We transition over to a review of the PM mining stocks and noted the recent outperformance of the smaller junior gold and silver stocks, further down the food chain. We wrap with thoughts on what fundamental drivers in the US equity markets and the kinds of changes in investor psychology that would bring more general investor capital flows into the precious metals sector.

Click here to learn more about Dave’s newsletter – The Junior Miner Junky.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:54 PM

    “Hold my Beer:” Steve Friedman Shows What Fed Insider Trading Really Is
    Peter Schmidt – November 14, 2021
    “Recently two Fed presidents, Eric Rosengren of Boston and Robert Kaplan of Dallas were forced to resign. Before discussing the circumstances surrounding their resignations, it is useful to examine their backgrounds because they give insight into the two types of people who dominate the Federal Reserve – academics and Goldman Sachs alumni.”
    “Their resignations were prompted by criticism resulting from the disclosure of their investments and associated trades. They had made trades when the Fed was engaged in all sorts of extraordinary market interventions. Moreover, the trades these senior Fed officials were making stood to benefit from the Fed interventions. As bad as the actions of Rosengren and Kaplan might be, they pale in comparison to those of another senior Fed official, Steve Friedman, during the height of the financial crisis…”

      Nov 16, 2021 16:03 PM

      The Fed’s Board of Governors Is Blocking the Release of Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan’s Trading Records
      By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: November 11, 2021
      “Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan made “over $1 million” trades in and out of S&P 500 futures throughout his tenure at the Dallas Fed, which began in September 2015 and ended with his resignation on September 27 of this year over his scandalous trading.

      “Trading in S&P 500 futures is a market-timing device used by hedge funds and day traders. No individual with market-moving information at the Federal Reserve should ever use such a device.”

    Nov 16, 2021 16:56 PM

    Gold Breaking Out Amid Loss of Investor Confidence in the Fed
    David Erfle – Friday November 11th, 2021
    “The news headlines this week, along with the rising gold price, is implying investors across the globe have finally accepted that inflation will continue to run hot. Despite the best efforts by central banks to convince them that surging prices of most everything is transitory, December Gold futures are headed for their biggest weekly gain in six months. The gold price has also moved sharply above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.”

    Nov 16, 2021 16:58 PM

    Gold & Gold Stocks to Test Overhead Resistance
    November 12, 2021 Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA
    “Recent price action in Gold and gold stocks suggests the worst of the correction is over. Gold has broken above initial resistance ($1835/oz), and gold stocks have shown sustained follow-through after registering an extreme oversold condition.”

    “However, Gold has only broken out of a 5-month base, and a confluence of massive resistance is looming at $1900. Technically, on the daily chart, it needs to rally past $1910 to escape the pattern of lower highs.”

    “As we see below, the real breakout was in Gold/FC (foreign currencies), which reached a fresh 52-week high this week. Also, Gold has a good shot to rally back to its multi-year relative to Bonds.”

    “The holdout is Gold against the stock market…”

    Nov 16, 2021 16:59 PM

    Crypto Concerns & Gold Blastoff
    Stewart Thomson – Nov 16, 2021

    Nov 16, 2021 16:00 PM

    Great discussion. Hopefully some of that Junior breakout will rub off on my stocks. Today was 95% in the red. Most other days just alternating with break even. Are there any juniors in the GDXJ. Are there any silver stocks in the GDXJ? I guess I need to find out.

      Nov 16, 2021 16:11 PM

      Hi Lakedweller2 – Yes, today was a corrective day in the PMs, but as Dave Erfle noted, most of the mining stocks shrugged off the weaker day in the metals, which is a bullish sign. My account was down less than 1% today, just like Dave mentioned about his being down about a 1/2 a percent, so overall, the miners are rallying better on green days, and pulling back less on red days. That is a good change from where things were back in the late summer in August and September.
      As for the GDXJ there are very few “juniors” included, mostly mid-tier producers, some smaller producers, and larger development projects, but it depends on what investors want to label or consider a junior as. Yes, there are also some Silver stocks included in GDXJ, just like there are Gold stocks included in SILJ. Haha!
      This is why I’ve always preferred to just build my own Silver and Gold ETFs in my portfolio, and actively manage them to control the makeup of companies, the weighting in each one that I feel is most appropriate for my goals, to pick up any dividends that companies pay, and to rebalance as often as makes sense. Still GDXJ and SILJ are good barometers of the overall sector. There is also GOEX which is has a few more “juniors” included, but again, for those with the time and interest in learning this sector, building one’s own ETF can be be more rewarding and provide more flexibility in rebalancing the stocks inside the portfolio.

        Nov 16, 2021 16:16 PM

        Here are the holdings in GDXJ. You can tell just right out of the gates that there is nothing “junior” about the largest percentage holdings.

        Ticker – Company Name – Percentage of GDXJ:

        PAAS US Pan American Silver Corp 5.15
        EVN AU Evolution Mining Ltd 4.29
        AUY US Yamana Gold Inc 4.07
        EDV CN Endeavour Mining Corp 4.06
        SSRM US SSR Mining Inc 3.58
        BTG US B2gold Corp 3.53
        MDKA IJ Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk Pt 3.14
        AG US First Majestic Silver Corp 2.99
        AGI US Alamos Gold Inc 2.95
        PVG US Pretium Resources Inc 2.51
        HL US Hecla Mining Co 2.44
        EQX US Equinox Gold Corp 2.04
        HMY US Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd 1.76
        PE&OLES* MF Industrias Penoles Sab De Cv 1.66
        MAG US Mag Silver Corp 1.66
        NG US Novagold Resources Inc 1.50
        BVN US Cia De Minas Buenaventura Saa 1.50
        OR US Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd 1.49
        SA US Seabridge Gold Inc 1.42
        WDO CN Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd 1.42
        CG CN Centerra Gold Inc 1.41
        IAG US Iamgold Corp 1.41
        EGO US Eldorado Gold Corp 1.40
        CDE US Coeur Mining Inc 1.38
        PRU AU Perseus Mining Ltd 1.36
        OGC CN Oceanagold Corp 1.33
        SILV US Silvercrest Metals Inc 1.29
        SAND US Sandstorm Gold Ltd 1.28
        KNT CN K92 Mining Inc 1.21
        CEY LN Centamin Plc 1.18
        FSM US Fortuna Silver Mines Inc 1.13
        SLR AU Silver Lake Resources Ltd 1.06
        NGD US New Gold Inc 1.04
        LUG CN Lundin Gold Inc 0.99
        RRL AU Regis Resources Ltd 0.99
        RMS AU Ramelius Resources Ltd 0.96
        GOR AU Gold Road Resources Ltd 0.95
        GGP LN Greatland Gold Plc 0.90
        DPM CN Dundee Precious Metals Inc 0.90
        EXK US Endeavour Silver Corp 0.88
        1818 HK Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd 0.86
        DEG AU De Grey Mining Ltd 0.84
        TXG CN Torex Gold Resources Inc 0.84
        GBR CN Great Bear Resources Ltd 0.82
        AR CN Argonaut Gold Inc 0.80
        POG LN Petropavlovsk Plc 0.78
        SVM US Silvercorp Metals Inc 0.76
        GGD CN Gogold Resources Inc 0.75
        WAF AU West African Resources Ltd 0.75
        HOC LN Hochschild Mining Plc 0.71
        AYA CN Aya Gold & Silver Inc 0.67
        OSK CN Osisko Mining Inc 0.67
        OLA CN Orla Mining Ltd 0.66
        VGCX CN Victoria Gold Corp 0.62
        SBM AU St Barbara Ltd 0.59
        KOZAL TI Koza Altin Isletmeleri As 0.58
        MOZ CN Marathon Gold Corp 0.57
        KRR CN Karora Resources Inc 0.53
        BGL AU Bellevue Gold Ltd 0.52
        SKE CN Skeena Resources Ltd 0.47
        MUX US Mcewen Mining Inc 0.47
        FFX AU Firefinch Ltd 0.47
        WGX AU Westgold Resources Ltd 0.42
        GCM CN Gran Colombia Gold Corp 0.41
        DSV CN Discovery Silver Corp 0.39
        DRD US Drdgold Ltd 0.39
        MTA US Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd 0.38
        NFG CN New Found Gold Corp 0.37
        AURA33 BZ Aura Minerals Inc 0.36
        NUAG CN New Pacific Metals Corp 0.35
        GATO US Gatos Silver Inc 0.33
        SBB CN Sabina Gold & Silver Corp 0.33
        AMI AU Aurelia Metals Ltd 0.32
        RED AU Red 5 Ltd 0.31
        AXU US Alexco Resource Corp 0.31
        MMX US Maverix Metals Inc 0.30
        ALK AU Alkane Resources Ltd 0.30
        NVO CN Novo Resources Corp 0.28
        CXB CN Calibre Mining Corp 0.26
        GLDG US Goldmining Inc 0.23
        GSS US Golden Star Resources Ltd 0.23
        PGM CN Pure Gold Mining Inc 0.23
        RSG AU Resolute Mining Ltd 0.22
        WM CN Wallbridge Mining Co Ltd 0.22
        SVL AU Silver Mines Ltd 0.22
        LGD CN Liberty Gold Corp 0.20
        GORO US Gold Resource Corp 0.17
        IAU CN I-80 Gold Corp 0.17
        USAS US Americas Gold & Silver Corp 0.16
        DCN AU Dacian Gold Ltd 0.13
        CMCL US Caledonia Mining Corp Plc 0.13
        GSV US Gold Standard Ventures Corp 0.12
        GROY US Gold Royalty Corp 0.12
        JAG CN Jaguar Mining Inc 0.12
        GAU US Galiano Gold Inc 0.11
        GPL US Great Panther Mining Ltd 0.10
        FVL CN Freegold Ventures Ltd 0.10
        SMC CN Sulliden Mining Capital Inc 0.01
        .246 HK Real Gold Mining Ltd 0.00

          Nov 17, 2021 17:19 AM

          Thanks for posting that list of GDXJ stocks. What jumped out at me was these are more or less proven juniors that are mining, been mining or about to mine. Rather than consider it to represent “juniors”, it could be a valuable list to limit “risk in Junior’s” as apparently to earn a place on the list, evidently you have to prove some success. My stuff is all before these guys, although I still hold Great Bear … but I probably owned half the list in the past. I need to hold longer or go for those in the GDXJ as they may get more traction just because they are on the GDXJ. (Somehow that ruins the fun…except on down days).

            Nov 17, 2021 17:45 AM

            Hi Lakedweller2 – I’d submit none of those companies, especially the top 2 dozen are “juniors” – far from it. Again, the most heavily weighted companies in GDXJ are all very large majors and mid-tier producers, and definitely some of the big boys, so their movements and true $100-$200 Million market and below true Juniors are very different things indeed. Even further down the list where they include a few Developers, they are some of the larger ones in the sector, so again, not really juniors.
            While GDXJ is helpful for tracking the sentiment and moves in the space for the producers and largest developers, there is nothing “Junior” about their index, so it’s a bit of a false narrative in that regard. If people want to track the movements of juniors then they need to build their own watchlists.

        Nov 16, 2021 16:39 PM

        Doesn’t look like the miners like Calibre(CXB) are going much lower.

          Nov 16, 2021 16:52 PM

          Yeah, most of the quality gold and silver operators have been mostly holding steady into this week’s corrective move in the metals, and not really selling down by much, all things considered.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:49 PM

    Know that Americas Gold & Silver is discussed here often and just saw this in my inbox:

    Taylor Dart: Americas Gold & Silver: More Share Dilution To Start Q4
    Summary: Americas Gold & Silver released its Q3 results last week, reporting a net loss of $18.6 million, or $0.13 per share.
    – The share dilution has not slowed down in Q3, with more shares sold under the ATM, and ~8 million shares sold subsequent to quarter-end.
    – This has translated to over 30% dilution year-over-year, and I wouldn’t rule out further share dilution in 2022 unless the silver price can spend most of next year above $26.50/oz.
    – Given the atrocious track record of share dilution, I continue to see the stock as uninvestable.

    Is this company now dead meat?

      Nov 16, 2021 16:51 PM

      More of an ugly duckling than cooked goose. (USAS) Americas Gold and Silver has had a slew of problems and setbacks over the last 2 years (from issues getting Relief Canyon up and running as projected, to illegal blockades and labor union BS in Mexico, to giving away 40% of the farm up in Idaho to Eric Sprott, to diluting the crap out of shareholders). These are all thorns in the side of any investor that wanted to see any traction in value creation for 2020 or 2021 with the company, but they are still silver and gold and base metals producers, with multiple mines in Mexico, Nevada, and Idaho so they aren’t going to zero.
      They likely need a larger producer to come in and put them out of their misery in a takeover to properly optimize their operations with an adequate amount of capital for investing in the projects… or at least a change up at the board and management level to get things back on track. They are more of a turn-around play and fixer upper, but have certainly been in the hurt locker for some time, and have a long road to haul to dig out of the negative sentiment they have with most investors.

        Nov 17, 2021 17:23 AM

        Ex –

        I normally read Dart’s stuff and it is rare for him to come flat out and say that a company is “uninvestable”. His article did read like somebody who was super frustrated with the Company.

        Since USAS has parts and pieces all over the place it would be hard to value the company, hence hard to acquire. My guess is it would be bought to chunk out to different companies. A change in Management would be great but is it even possible? Over the years I have learned that when the going gets rough the good folks are the the first to leave – the bad ones have no where else to go.

        One other thought/question – shouldn’t USAS respond to Dart’s post?


          Nov 17, 2021 17:33 AM

          I usually read Taylor’s stuff too, but take his comments with a grain of salt, as he typically says on 90% of companies either in the article or in the comments that ‘he sees better value elsewhere” or he “wouldn’t be a buyer”, etc…. so saying it’s “uninvestable” is just more of the same, but a bit harsher.
          It’s kinda a silly statement though, because it’s totally investable, for someone with the right expectations of where they are at going into it, for a swing-trade, position-trade, or longer term hold for a turn-around story. It depends on someone’s investing style, future expectations on the company, gold & silver prices. etc….
          What he is saying is that he, Taylor Dart, wouldn’t invest in it because he doesn’t like their track record of dilution and poor performance. That is personal prerogative, which is fine, but it is backward looking at prior challenges, but not forward looking, and has nothing to do with how the stock will do in the future, which is an important distinction. His opinion is not gospel or all-seeing, and I’ve made plenty of money over yhe years remaining in stocks he didn’t like in his write ups, because the market is bigger than anyone’s opinions. There are stocks that many newsletter writers, like him, like that also get sold down. Take it all for what it is, an opinion, and know everyone has embedded biases and blind spots. And no, companies definitely don’t need to respond to everyone that has an opinion on their company like T.D.
          His outlook didn’t account or leave room for if USAS do get their Mexico Cosala operations moving better, or if they get Relief Canyon running more as initially projected, or if Galena in Idaho contributes more to production, or if gold and silver run higher in prices, or if they continue to fibd more ounces through exploration, and on…and on… It also doesn’t account for a larger company moving in and acquiring them as another potential path to higher valuation.
          There are many areas of a turn-around that his opinions are blind to, and make it an interesting speculation at current levels and very investable, and they didn’t stop it from rallying double digits in the last 6 weeks, off the Sept lows. (more than the US general markets rallied all year long) Once again, it comes down to where someone gets positioned, how long they hold a position or partial position, what happens operationally and through exploration moving forward, what happens to metals prices, etc…
          Again, USAS is definitely an ugly duckling here, like MUX has been the last 2 years, but that doesn’t mean they won’t get stronger and learn to fly diwn the road. By the time that happens, and T.D.s quant methods admit they are doing better, then the easy money from the rerating would have already happened. Nobody likes turnaround plays at their bottoms (which is the most advantageous time to be buying them – providing they don’t actually fail and go bankrupt, and do eventually get things turned around). Just something to think about.

            Nov 17, 2021 17:47 AM

            Ex –

            Thanks for the reality check – I’m ok with turn around stories so I can give them the winter and see where things are in the spring. Sandstorm owns a chunk of them – let’s hope they provide some good council and help them steer a better course.

            Nov 17, 2021 17:00 AM

            Sure thing Mike. It’s always good to flush these ideas out, and look at things from a few different vantage points.
            As the saying goes, “One man’s trash, is another man’s treasure.” 😉
            With turn around plays like USAS or MUX or SGI or PGM they can be despised at their lows, but often times, that makes them the most “investable” and not “uninvestable” for contrarian plays. However, I don’t want to insinuate that these are without risk, as they can be very risky, and not all of them have enough momentum to escape the downward pull. Look at TMAC or Harte Gold (or Primero and Klondex in the past) for example… they never escaped the black hole they had created, and TMAC, Primero, and Klondex were taken over by larger companies and put out of their misery. With Harte, I’m not sure how that is going to play out. However with USAS or MUX or SGI or PGM I see more of a path out of the basement and into the living room of more investors over the next 12-18 months, so I’m willing to speculate that better days are in front of them. If they get acquired while they are trying to get their ships turned around, then that’s an easy escape hatch for investors. Just my 2 cents on turn-around plays.

            Nov 17, 2021 17:20 AM

            How many years and how much dilution does it take before it’s no longer considered a turnaround???🤔

            Nov 17, 2021 17:58 AM

            Good question. It normally takes companies 2-3 years to get their ship turned around.
            It took Endeavour Silver, Karora Resources, and Argonaut Gold about 2 1/2 years each to get their mines optimized, costs lowered, development projects proved out, exploration hitting, etc…
            Americas Gold & Silver and McEwen are both about 2 years into getting things sorted, so maybe by the middle of next year they will start getting more traction again with investors… (?)
            For investors it also depends on when and at what price that they got positioned in the stories, with investors holding for the duration of the pain of getting things fixed being more frustrated than investors that just got positioned more recently. I remember with Klondex I had been out for 2 years during their worst draw downs, had only been back in a for a few months when it looked like the worst was behind them, and the boom! they were acquired. I had the same experience with Richmont Mines, and actually had jumped in TMAC right at the very end, thinking it was a good turn-around / takeover candidate, but then got legitimately spooked that they may go under, so I got out and missed the takeover by 2 weeks. Still it was the right idea. I’ve recently been adding to McEwen and Superior Gold, and just got back in Americas Gold & Silver a few weeks back, so we’ll see how those go…

    Nov 17, 2021 17:42 AM

    The Junior Report: (mine)

    At open: some up, some down -.43%

    Update one minute later:

    some up, some down +.41%

    Never mind: one minute more: all even.

      Nov 17, 2021 17:43 AM

      Rally: in the green +$175

    Nov 17, 2021 17:53 AM

    was that the correction and pullback for metals?…not convinced…need a close w volume over the recent high…but IF so, that is just super ubber bullish…glta

      Nov 17, 2021 17:18 AM

      I love it when you talk that way…

        Nov 17, 2021 17:27 AM

        I know that LAKE!…..growl 😜🎶🎸🔊☎️

      Nov 17, 2021 17:53 AM

      I was personally interested to see if Gold would make a run at that $1900 round number (important on the monthly and quarterly charts as Dave Erfle and Jordan have noted before), to see if it could get up to that resistance zone. The weakness at the beginning of the week, may have just been a speed bump on the way up to that level, but it was a nice reversal into strength today for sure, which is encouraging.

        Nov 17, 2021 17:12 AM


        Last weeks move down into early this week was the “Mini” correction I was looking for. I expressed two weeks ago that the third week of November we would see strong upward move in gold and miners also silver. We look to be headed higher into that liquidity and a closing green candle if $1900-$1920 is what we want specifically with that monthly.

          Nov 17, 2021 17:59 AM

          Sounds good Glenfidish. I’m looking forward to seeing that play out.

    Nov 17, 2021 17:18 AM

    Short. Close stop. Turn Monday?

      Nov 17, 2021 17:22 AM

      I am somewhat color blind and often army green and darker brown look the same. Is that November chart most recent showing “dark charcoal” as that seems like the good color to have.

        Nov 17, 2021 17:39 AM

        LD2/David: Yes, yesterday was the swing top.
        Other ‘colors’ are logical, noting trend direction.
        Earliest possible MaxSat(7) for all is next Monday.

          Nov 17, 2021 17:50 AM

          BDC – So based on that and the max saturation points in some yesterday and follow through today, would that indicate a short-term top is potentially here in this recent run up in the PM stocks for the last 6 weeks?

            Nov 17, 2021 17:22 AM

            EX: From the swing low on November 3rd.
            Today is a retest failure of yesterday.
            (MaxSat(7) bogey now Tuesday.)

            Nov 17, 2021 17:59 PM

            Thanks BDC. I appreciate that you share your technical work with us here at the KER.

    Nov 17, 2021 17:20 AM

    GDX finally had a down day after rising for 7 straight. Will it now resume its rise to the H&S target or will it fill that 11/10 gap first?

    Nov 17, 2021 17:24 AM

    The gold-silver ratio has not yet fully confirmed the bullish message from the rest of the sector but it will…

    Nov 17, 2021 17:02 AM

    It has been a long, long time since I held USAS/USA and I can’t say that I miss it one bit. It treated me very well and will probably treat current buyers well (at least as it mean-reverts) but no thanks.

    Nov 17, 2021 17:38 AM

    Bearish divergence: Sprott’s uranium trust is up 1.3% today while URA is down .5% and breaking rising wedge support.

    Nov 17, 2021 17:50 AM

    Oil and gas stocks now look pretty bearish after rising for a year while the gold stocks fell.

    Nov 17, 2021 17:06 PM

    I am still not among those predicting a crash but the stock market looks ready for a fall and probably many months of underperformance versus gold and the rest of the gold space.

    Nov 17, 2021 17:15 PM

    The technical picture is all set and maybe tomorrow’s Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity Index just might give it the news it “needs” tomorrow morning.
    The Dow just tested rising fork resistance for two weeks and is now pulling back…

    Nov 17, 2021 17:22 PM
    Nov 17, 2021 17:25 PM
      Nov 17, 2021 17:52 PM

      Yep, that’s starting to get a little ugly between those 2 nations.

    Nov 17, 2021 17:05 PM
    Nov 17, 2021 17:22 PM

    I’m still reading way to many bearish technicians all over the map very confident gold will break down and fall back to double bottom. This is the recipe I want to keep hearing. When I start to here the opposite then and only then can one lighten up if trading.

    I think it’s very clear long term picture looks good. Just keep climbing that wall of worry.

    Nov 17, 2021 17:24 PM

    Over here in Canada my Justin continues to print at an alarming rate! Extending the cerb package or gifting citizens to stay at home vs going to work is the recipe we need. This inflation is going to get ugly this time around as my boy Peter Schiff said long ago. We won’t take it this time around without rates going higher. Good luck

    Forever up!

    Nov 17, 2021 17:00 PM

    Thanks Jerry

    I must have missed it somehow my bad.

    Has already been on and do you or anyone have a link regarding that YouTube.

    For the record I follow Gary but don’t agree100% with all his calls. No one person is perfect and his latest gold calls thus far have been far off. Non the less Gary does some good work with cycles which I personally appreciate. I have nothing bad to say.

    Definitely curious to see what he said.

    Thanks Jerry all good in Canada printing press running 24 hours a day with immigration flooding in like the us. Bad recipe


    Nov 17, 2021 17:06 PM

    Gary savage

    Looks like it starts in 2 hours 🤠disregard I believe he already went on and video is not active. 🤷‍♂️