Craig Hemke Reviews Price Levels And Key Drivers In Gold And Silver, And Considers Different Outcomes From Fed Policy

Shad Marquitz
November 18, 2021

Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to discuss the recent trend higher in the precious metals sector, and the financial factors that may move the markets.  Craig is looking to see the $1920 resistance cleared in gold to attract more investor interest and build a little more momentum in the sector. Next we shift over to the rangebound price action in silver this year, and some of the fundamental drivers that could move it back higher.


We wrap up with some thoughts on the forward-looking markets trying anticipate a potential acceleration in Fed QE tapering or rate hikes, and consider the suggestion by some in the mainstream media that Jerome Powell could be replaced as Fed Chairman.

Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report.

    Nov 18, 2021 18:18 PM

    VMY.AX strong last couple of days. Apparently receiving expressions of interest from Deep Yellow(DYL.AX) and others.

    Nov 18, 2021 18:20 PM

    Physical Silver Supply Shortage is Coming – Buy Silver Mining Stocks
    I Love Prosperity w/ Jake Ducey – Nov 18, 2021
    In this video we talk to Shaun Khunkhun, CEO of $DV $DOLLF Dolly Varden Silver. We discuss his excitement for Silver, why he chose Silver as a focal point, his massive goals he’s build over the last year or 2, and why he believes they’re achievable. He talks about the business of silver mining, why we’re beginning to see shortages in physical silver, and why he thinks buying silver stocks are so important.

      Nov 18, 2021 18:26 PM

      DV up today while others were down. This CEO is full of heart and all in with his company.

        Nov 18, 2021 18:31 PM

        Yep, I was happy to see (DV) Dolly Varden getting a bid today as one of the prominent green movers in a mostly red day overall
        Of course, (SCZ) Santacruz Silver was the big mover of the day coming out of that halt and and closing up 28%. Shazzam!!

    Nov 18, 2021 18:24 PM

    (SAND) (SSL) Sandstorm Gold Gains After Winning Key Approval For Turkey Mine
    Nov. 18, 2021 – Seeking Alpha
    “Sandstorm Gold (NYSE:SAND) +3.6% pre-market after the environmental impact assessment for its Hod Maden project received final approval from Turkey’s Ministry of Environment.”

    “This approval marks the next development phase and triggers several key catalysts… including the application for the final permits and initiating long-lead construction items,” President and CEO Nolan Watson says.

    Sandstorm says “it expects to release results from the Hod Maden feasibility study in the coming weeks.”

    “There’s a high likelihood that the lows are in for Sandstorm,” Taylor Dart writes in a recent analysis posted on Seeking Alpha. “If Hod Maden is approved, I would view pullbacks below $6.20 as low-risk buying opportunities.”

    Nov 18, 2021 18:28 PM

    BHP Sees Need For Battery Metals More Than Doubling In 30 years
    Cecilia Jamasmie | November 17, 2021
    “As the pace and shape of the global transition to a greener economy has become a key issue globally, the need for battery metals will grow up to four times in the next 30 years,” Vandita Pant, BHP’s chief commercial officer, said on Wednesday at the FT Commodities Asia Summit.

    “Some of the modelling that we have done showed that in, let’s say a decarbonised world … the world will need almost double the copper in the next 30 years than in the past 30,” she told the audience at the inaugural session.

    The world’s largest miner is also predicting that demand for nickel, another needed battery metal, will quadruple by 2050. “And all this will have to be done as sustainably as possible,” Pant added.

    “Her vision echoes those of most experts, from consultants such as Wood Mackenzie, ING Economics and Bloomberg NEF, to industry actors including top miners and electric vehicles makers lead by Tesla and Volkswagen.”

      Nov 18, 2021 18:41 PM

      SQM Expects Lithium Prices To Jump 50% Before Year-End
      Cecilia Jamasmie | November 18, 2021
      SQM (SQM), the world’s second largest lithium miner, expects average prices for the battery metal to rise close to 50% in the last three months of the year from the previous quarter, as strong demand for the key ingredient to make electric vehicle batteries continues to put pressure on the market.

    Nov 18, 2021 18:29 PM

    Isn’t SAND also a favorite of Doc? That’s two approvals in a row from TD, KRR and SAND.

      Nov 18, 2021 18:37 PM

      Yep, Doc & I have mentioned bottom fishing and trading around core positions in Sandstorm a number of times this year. Doc & I also discussed it in our segment together talking stocks a while back.
      Anything around either side of $6 in SAND was a solid place to be accumulating, and it has grown in weight in my portfolio. My last 3 Sandstorm adds were at $6.18 on Aug 26th, then $5.97 on Sept 23rd, and then most recently at $5.68 on Sept 29th. With a closing trade today $6.87, I feel optimistic that it will have a $7 handle soon enough, and a $8 handle after that.

        Nov 18, 2021 18:47 PM

        The big knock against Sandstorm from some market worry warts has been that Hod Maden would not be granted permission to proceed in Turkey. That concern was removed from the table today and they can now move forward with development. Very nice to see this in the rear-view mirror now…
        (SAND) (SSL) Sandstorm Gold Royalties Announces Hod Maden Project EIA Approval

        – 17 Nov 2021
        “The granting of the EIA represents a major milestone for the Hod Maden project,” announced Nolan Watson, Sandstorm’s President & CEO. “This approval marks the next development phase and triggers several key catalysts for Lidya including the application for the final permits and initiating long-lead construction items.”

    Nov 18, 2021 18:55 PM

    I will believe there is a silver shortage when demand cant be met.
    I’ve heard this shortage claim for 20 years at least, and suppliers have sales.
    IMO, silver increases in price because people buy it, so simple its silly.

    1 thing tho, a few years ago I could buy lots of silver coins, groups of 50-100, dont really see that anymore.
    Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place, but it might be fair to say there is a shortage of pre 1920 canadian coin lots.

    But bullion (maple leafs) you can still find sales for.

      Nov 19, 2021 19:24 AM

      Yeah, we just had Jeff Christian on the weekend show, and he’s stated repeatedly that there really is no shortage of silver. What has effected the mints has actually been a shortage of the blank rounds used to imprint into coins, but that is not the same thing as a shortage of silver. For example, there was no shortage of larger bars even during the “silver squeeze” in February… just the coins.
      However, if we do see a continued uptick in industrial demand, and more importantly, if we see a larger inflow of funds into investor demand, then that could be an environment where there would be a shortage of silver, and I believe that is what Shawn Khunkhun was referring to, or what Keith Neumeyer has eluded to in the past.
      If we saw larger institutions or hedge funds or family offices start upping their positions in Silver, then it could swamp supply with more demand fairly easily. It wouldn’t take much as most of the big price moves are set at the periphery of the markets when these imbalances show up.
      Look what happened in just a little over a year in Oil where it went from the $20s, to then going literally negative on the futures contracts last year, and then shot up to over $80 this year. Look at what happened with toilet paper last year from increased buying demand. It doesn’t take much demand swell to swamp supply in tighter markets, and the silver/base metals miners would not be able to just flip a switch and ramp up fast enough to meet that demand in that kind of environment.

        Nov 19, 2021 19:06 AM

        Craig’s question in today’s interview was more about the potential that we could see more of a mania in Silver due to potential supply shortages and industrial end users not waiting around to lock in key input materials, like we’ve seen in Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Iron, etc…. It’s an interesting question to consider, of whether that same thing could happen in Silver, especially with so much focus on electronics, growing EV markets, and solar panels.

        Falling Stocks Pose Problems For London Metal Exchange
        Reuters – November 15, 2021
        “What happens when the market of last resort, the London Metal Exchange (LME), runs out of metal? And should it then restrict the right to take metal out of its warehouses if the result is price distortion?”

        “The 144-year old exchange, which sets benchmark prices for the global industrial metal markets, has always prided itself on its role as ultimate buyer and ultimate seller of physical metal.”

        “Chamberlain’s musings come after the LME was forced to restrain its copper contract, which risked a disorderly breakdown after on-warrant exchange stocks slumped to a multi-decade low of 14,150 tonnes.”

        “They have since rebuilt to 49,900 tonnes but it’s not just a Copper problem. LME Tin stocks have been at super-low levels for most of the year. Lead stocks are looking similarly depleted. Backwardation has become entrenched in both contracts’ forward curve.”

          Nov 19, 2021 19:11 AM

          Metals from Aluminum to Zinc Are All Flashing Tight Supply Right Now
          By Mark Burton – November 17, 2021
          “For the first time in more than a decade, six of the world’s most vital industrial metals are flashing a rare synchronized warning over tight supply, as logistical turmoil and strong demand spark anxiety among buyers.”

          “From aluminum to zinc, spot prices for base metals on the London Metal Exchange are all soaring above futures — a condition known as backwardation — for the first time since 2007. Buyers are paying a premium for access to metal against a backdrop of plunging exchange inventories, supply-chain delays, production hiccups and surging demand for industrial commodities in everything from construction to consumer electronics.”

        Nov 19, 2021 19:18 AM

        I agree EX, if institutions decide to buy the price of silver would increase.
        As I said, the reason it goes up is simply because people decide to buy it.

        Thing is, that can be said about anything such as, if everyone decides to by pokemon cards the price of pokemon cards will go thru the roof.

        But is that a fundamental reason for a price increase? Maybe it is.

        Concerning institutional buying, imo, just a guess, should the time come, they will decide to buy gold.
        Silver could very well follow the gold price, but a shortage? I havnt seen one so far, just supply disruptions.
        Having said that, we really are dealing with supply issues now.
        Along with existing challenges at the ports.
        The port of Vancouver just closed for example.

        Rogers prediction of agriculture becoming very valuable could manifest.

          Nov 19, 2021 19:40 PM

          Hi b – yep, agreed on the supply chain issues causing ripples in the markets and the Agricultural commodities on the rise (stay tuned for our talk with Matt Geiger that will air on Monday that gets into that a bit more). As we always say “people gotta eat.”
          While thus far there have not been Silver shortages, despite many narratives and anecdotal stories to the contrary (which are really just the mints having had a shortage of blank rounds and manufacturing/distribution issues due to lower manpower), there still could be silver shortages if fabricators ordered more than typical to guarantee supply, like what has been happening with Aluminum, Iron, Copper, Nickel, Tin, etc…. The other factor that could mop up supply would be increased investor interest during a move in Silver back up into the $30s, where demand outstrips supply. Just because we haven’t seen shortages yet in Silver, doesn’t mean would couldn’t in a years time was my only point.

    Nov 19, 2021 19:46 AM
      Nov 19, 2021 19:25 AM

      Echo & The Bunnymen – “The Killing Moon”

      Nov 19, 2021 19:28 AM

      EUR/USD retreats below 1.1350 as Lagarde sticks to dovish narrative!

        Nov 19, 2021 19:31 AM

        Most of these central banks talk big and hawkish from time to time, but most of their policies have remained very dovish for years. That is the implication in Craig’s point about many talking heads in the main stream media now calling for Brainard to possibly replace Powell. It would be even more dovish for future Fed policy.
        Here’s How Markets Might React If Biden Picks Lael Brainard as Fed Chair
        Bloomberg – Elizabeth Stanton – November 17, 2021
        “A decision by U.S. President Joe Biden to nominate Lael Brainard as Federal Reserve chair instead of Jerome Powell could provide a narrow window of opportunity for traders in rates and foreign-exchange markets — even if the shock wears off relatively quickly.”

        “With the perception that Brainard might be less inclined to tighten monetary policy than the incumbent, the initial reaction in markets could see short-term interest rates pull back and a weakening of the dollar. But such moves could prove short-lived, as whichever candidate ends up in charge will ultimately be hostage to the uncertain inflation and growth landscape.”

        “Brainard certainly leans more dovish,” according to Blake Gwinn, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets. But both “are drinking from the same well” of information, “and both are going to be forced to reconcile with the realized inflation data on the ground.”

          Nov 19, 2021 19:02 AM

          Yes, and for now a Lagarde driven Dollar push!

            Nov 19, 2021 19:08 AM

            Agreed. Euro Fright : Dollar Flight indeed.
            US Dollar index is up above 96 for the first time this year.

            Nov 19, 2021 19:19 AM

            It’s such a bizarre environment to have surging inflation with a 6.2% CPI reading, and at the same time have a surging US Dollar now up to 96 and a high for the year.
            The dollar strength is almost completely predicated on the other currencies being weak in relation to the greenback, especially the Euro. It sends such an odd signal, because real purchasing power in the marketplace with what those “strong” dollars can buy is actually being eroded by 5-6%, making the cost of goods go higher.
            This is why the Dollar Index is such a farce, to some degree, as it is merely a reflection of other equally problematic fiat currencies in a race to the bottom, and is disconnected from what is actually happening in the marketplace when consumers fill up their gas tank, buy groceries, or go holiday shopping.

            Nov 19, 2021 19:30 AM

            It’s a Three Ring Circus, and Reason resides in only One.
            If the Euro falls more, the Dollar may Rocket:

            Nov 19, 2021 19:36 AM

            Agreed BDC. The Euro has been a basket case lately, and that is spiking the Dollar on the USDX and in the Euro:Dollar ratio as highlighted in that chart. Wild times!

    Nov 19, 2021 19:39 AM

    Gold’s Following a Historical Path
    November 18, 2021 – Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA
    “Two of my updated analogs show that Gold could break $1900 in March 2022 and begin its ascent shortly thereafter.”

    Nov 19, 2021 19:19 AM

    It’s been a noteworthy draw down in Bitcoin lately from a high of $69,000 on November 9th, to a current price of $56,700 just 10 days later on the 19th.

    Nov 19, 2021 19:21 AM
    Nov 19, 2021 19:47 AM

    Second infrastructure bill passes House

    Miners hit…

    Nov 19, 2021 19:51 AM

    Uranium Beastly!

      Nov 19, 2021 19:07 AM

      URA and URNM have broken significant support.
      CCJ is holding, for now. (20211119.1207)

        Nov 19, 2021 19:44 PM

        Yeah, that was a significant plunge in most of the Uranium stocks the last few days, but specifically today.
        I was selling back some of my U miners last week and earlier this week and got them down from 70% to 60% and even exited Azarga completely (again) on Monday. If enCore would just come back down out of the clouds to Earth, then I’d buy into it moving forward as the arbitrage window has narrowed and the Azarga investors approved the merger already.
        However today I did add back to most positions into the weakness in UUUU, URG, UEC, NXE, and PTU. I didn’t add to DNN as it still seems rather lofty here, so waiting for more of a pullback in it to add more. Overall, I’m back up to 70% positioned again. In a way, I hope the U stocks get creamed next week, as I’d like to get up to 80%-90% deployed again, but want to see the U mining stocks correct down by 15%-20% further before adding much more than what I’m currently holding.

    Nov 19, 2021 19:18 AM

    Added some more New Age today with beer money. Sounds like they have a lot going on with some of the EV type metals. News today.

      Nov 19, 2021 19:40 PM

      Added to Big Ridge and just a few to Santacruz

    Nov 19, 2021 19:05 PM

    Perfect: Emerita finished the week up with an alternating day pattern…

    Friday was an up day among alternating day stocks and blew it out on the green side for a total of (wait for it): +$124.63.

    Nov 19, 2021 19:28 PM

    BOIL weakened today after filling Wednesday’s big gap…

      Nov 19, 2021 19:35 PM

      Why would natural gas get cheaper in winter during a period of world -wide inflation and shortages?

        Nov 19, 2021 19:23 PM

        It went up 155% in the first 9 months of the year while becoming very overbought. My guess is that inflation was the main driver of that action as well as any shortages. Those who needed to secure gas for the winter have done so and pushed the price way up in the process. A high inflation rate always brings shortages to parts of the economy.
        WOOD is also no good but might be in for a relief rally.

          Nov 19, 2021 19:48 PM

          Thanks Matthew. That makes sense. I am thinking that the price maybe needs to correct but I think with inflation and demand in places like Europe where Putin is jerking them around that it will rebound.
          The NG People that Ex and I were talking about are relatively new in Columbia but the CEO in an interview recently talked about their capability to get a higher price. I wasn’t paying any attention to the reason as I thought the price was going to hold up during these “dysfunctional” times. We will see but I think supply and demand will kick in. I can’t help but feel that corporate America wants cheap prices on commodities no matter what reality dictates and intervention at some point fails.

      Nov 19, 2021 19:47 PM

      Yeah, I noticed the weakness in Natural Gas today smacking down my GASX NG Energy position. I actually hope it may have put in a double top, and corrects down hard, as I only had time to get one tranche in place before it took off to the upside, and I’d rather layer on 1-2 more tranches at better levels before they start opening up all their wells next year.

        Nov 19, 2021 19:56 PM

        I was trying to see what I could move around to get some more NG but decided to pick up some more Big Ridge instead due to the price differential. Looking for Emerita to start another run and that may get some profits for NG add. If NG takes off, then that will be OK also.

    Nov 19, 2021 19:53 PM

    Read some of your posts from the 17th where you were projecting where things were going. Very impressive. I wish I could keep up with all you are doing. I am way behind.

      Nov 19, 2021 19:30 PM

      Thanks David. I’m barely keeping up myself with so many data points flashing all at once. It can be overwhelming at times, but with all of the great contributors on the show and on the blog sharing good ideas with each other, it helps us all get a slight edge and be better informed.
      Ever Upward!