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Dave Erfle Reviews The False Breakout And Corrective Moves In Gold, GDX, and GDXJ This Week

Shad Marquitz
November 23, 2021

David Erfle, Founder and Editor of Junior Mining Junky, joins us to review the false breakout and recent correction in the precious metals sector this week, and what technical price levels he is now watching in gold, GDX, and GDXJ.   We discuss how options expiration and a technical running of the stops was likely the impetus for the move lower, more so than the financial media narrative about it being because Jerome Powell is staying on as the Fed chair. 

 

 We review the length of other time periods of digestion, after big moves to new highs like we saw in August of 2021, and how we just need more time to finish out the cup & handle pattern.  Dave is not ruling out more potential downside in the metals, but does feel most of the downside has already been priced into the mining stocks. We wrap up with his thoughts on which stage of mining stocks he feels would be ideal for new investors to the precious metals sector that want to start scaling into positions.

Click here to learn more about Dave’s newsletter – The Junior Miner Junky.

Discussion
23 Comments
    Jim
    Nov 23, 2021 23:07 PM

    Dave you said last time you were 100pct invested and just sitting back waiting for next breakout.
    Gold has broken 1850 and many talking 1900 soon but gold now has fallen like rock down towards 1800 and silver drop further.
    Did you turn around and sell stocks or holding on with no cash, it’s only been week or so since you said you were all in.
    Something not right if gold starts big moves in short period on inflation and then bottom falls out and it’s possible it will fall further under 1800, miners starting to follow gold again down.

    Reply
    BDC
    Nov 24, 2021 24:12 AM

    SPQ(PMs): https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
    Will the turn be ‘just in time’?
    Key: Dollar/Euro duo.

    Reply
      BDC
      Nov 24, 2021 24:42 AM

      Long (JNUG) 10%. Close stop.

      Reply
        BDC
        Nov 24, 2021 24:23 AM

        Now 20%.

        Reply
          BDC
          Nov 24, 2021 24:00 AM

          Now 40%.

          Reply
            BDC
            Nov 24, 2021 24:07 AM

            Now 85%. Likely sell today — high or low.

            BDC
            Nov 24, 2021 24:12 PM

            Flat.

    Nov 24, 2021 24:19 AM

    Gold update!

    Yesterdays overall strength with the miners some holding the Fort and others slightly down has been showing signs of miners starting to decouple and show strength. This is exactly what we want.

    We have gone from a slightly bullish outlook to outright pessimism on most boards and many technicians now as confident that we will break to new lows as they were confident we would fly much higher at august high. At the end of the day trust your own technicals and skills.

    Now my outlook remains the same. I’m as bullish as I have been since I changed course precisely at the lows of the miners. Give or take. I remain friendly to the thought that the double bottom should not break however nothing is written in stone.

    From my perspective This is a very bearish/mental break you down type of take down to wash out week hands from recent lows.

    From what I’m watching as of this moment on the 4 hour chart I like what could be transpiring. If we can get a green wick we will get follow through Into the open. I would not be surprised one bit to have a monster day today however sometimes I’m early to the party. I won’t rule out a pop today today of well measured performance.

    Let’s see if my 4 hour works In my favor today

    Cheers

    Ann hope you got your bid filled in with Klondike 🙂

    Reply
      Nov 24, 2021 24:23 AM

      yes glen metals might should go up but then again might come down. best to cover all possible outcomes

      Reply
        Nov 24, 2021 24:49 AM

        Jonsyl

        I’ve been on record buying the miners at there lows over 1/2 months ago. Those lows have held even through this $100 plus correction. I was even kind enough to share which particular companies I invested in. You would be currently in the green.

        Please do us all a favor and state something of value or something positive towards metals and the miners will ya? If not don’t let the door smack you on the way out 😉

        Reply
          Nov 24, 2021 24:04 AM

          “Weak Hands”…….. should hold their arce on the way out, … just to protect their back side,… or at least protect the door from further damage…. lol…
          A swinging door is dangerous if caught in the middle….. lol… Uncle Wally 1988… 🙂

          Happy Thanksgiving

          Reply
            Nov 24, 2021 24:16 AM

            🤣 Jerry happy thanksgiving to you and all the folks celebrating today.

            Cheers my friend

            Nov 24, 2021 24:19 PM

            Worst still to stand in front of front of the door when there’s a rush out. And go back ad back again.
            Einstein 1955

    Nov 24, 2021 24:42 AM

    Ex, thanks for asking about tax loss selling and if we will still see some

    I like to bottom fish some more Equinox – it‘s not yet where I would like to buy

    Yamana and B2GOLD look attractive

    Hycroft is now at $35 million MC for 700 million ounces silver – if silver goes to $50 that would be steal $35 million for $35 billion – never seen such a valuation

    Reply
      Nov 24, 2021 24:37 AM

      Thanks Thomas and yes, if there are any tax loss sales triggered by this recent PM swoon to the downside, where we see some stocks have capitulation moves on high volume. then it could be a good place to bottom fish.
      .
      Personally, I wouldn’t expect to see that in the larger quality names like Equinox. which has had a nice rally the last few months. EQX likely had it’s tax loss selling months ago in the summer.
      .
      However, with some of the junior companies, that have not run as high recently, and that have a larger retail component of shareholders, then there could be some selling pressure that feeds on itself. Many expected Gold to close the month in the mid $1800s, so this recent pullback may bring forward a few more tax loss sellers, and present a good contrarian opportunity.

      Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:54 AM

    /GC day….My chart says anticipate a test of 1769.30 the TD9 breakout, which acts as a hidden swing point….so it is useful and fakes out traders expecting the actual swing low of 11/3/21 to be tested and rejected for higher price…I think it will resolve bullishly…but what do i know?….no guarantees, but it is reasonable…..lmao…dollar is unrelenting in its upswing…maybe Australia prison camps covid non-vaccinated system is flooding money here…no idea

    https://tos.mx/XqTRb7W

    Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:04 AM

    /GC weekly…does look to want to test the lower level of its bullish structured TAS profile….I need to assume this TAS logarithm is way smarter than me….that number is 1758…..so this tends to keep me thinking lower price ahead also into daily targets mentioned above…..glta

    https://tos.mx/hobW1mS

    Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:59 AM

    (SAND) (SSL) Sandstorm Gold: The Hod Maden Advanced To The Next Level

    – Nov. 21, 2021 – Fun Trading – Seeking Alpha
    .
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471086-sandstorm-gold-the-hod-maden-advanced-to-the-next-level

    Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:34 AM

    My technical projections: If no one goes to jail for market intervention, then market intervention, fraud and theft continues unabated. I am highly confident in this projection. A long history of recorded corruption supports my thesis above all others.

    Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:11 PM

    volume down is shrinking…that is bottom friendly…gld day…i can imagine the 3rd gap being filled and that is it for a while…glta
    https://tos.mx/cC67VsC

    Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:14 PM

    metals market sure looks tired in here, not sure if it’s tired of going down or tired of hanging on. May be worst Friday after Turkey dinner.

    Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:40 PM

    My miners are still waiting to start after another year of price manipulation. So far no change in anything. They are still at bottom waiting for The Fed fraud to blow up in their face.

    Reply

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