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Weekend Show – Markets and Metals – Gold’s Selloff Into The End of The Month and Friday’s Scared Markets

Cory
November 27, 2021
Full Weekend Show

 

We hope all of you in the US had a very happy Thanksgiving!

 

For a shortened trading week there was a lot to discuss. Precious metals started the week of poorly and closed the week down over 3.5%, now flat on the month. Overshadowing the move down in PMs was the broad selloff in markets on Friday. A new Covid variant rattled investors as most US markets had the largest drop all year. We focus on both the drops in PMs and US markets in this Weekend’s Show looking ahead to the last month of the year.

 

Please keep in touch by emailing us at either Fleck@kereport.com or Shad@kereport.com.

 

 

  • Segment 1 and 2 – Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management kicks off the show with a focus on the precious metals pullback, with gold dropping $66 this week. We discuss Powell’s reappointment as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, how the markets are pricing in rate hikes, and the rise in the USD.
  • Segment 3 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager and Editor of The Lyons Share joins us for an update on the US markets and what his models are projecting from here. This is a very good unbiased outlook for the markets. Click here to take advantage of Dana’s largest sale of the year over at The Lyons Shares.
  • Segment 4 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx wraps up the show by breaking down the drops in a few key markets from Friday. As unknown as everything is right now heading into the weekend we look ahead to what news events and data truly matter. Click here to visit Marc’s website

 

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week

 

 


 

 

Adrian Day
Dana Lyons
Marc Chandler
Discussion
70 Comments
    Nov 27, 2021 27:05 AM

    We all knew that what happened in the conventional markets yesterday was a slam dunk, we just didn’t know when. The Fed will be throwing stimulus at the markets Monday morning, some of it will stick, but will it be enough or will it get to where it needs to go fast enough. The clock is ticking………………….? This is starting to shape up as a Deflationary Depression. Look what happened to oil! The ghosts of yesteryear are back, those who ignore history are doomed to see a repetitious repeat. DT

      Nov 27, 2021 27:23 AM

      Interesting thoughts to consider DT. As for the Oil pullback, as pointed out in the interview with Adrian Day up above, it had already started correcting before the variant news broke on Friday, and was up to $85 a few weeks back but had been steadily pulling back down on fundamental supply/demand news.
      .
      Even mid-week when we had Josef Schachter on the show, he was laying out the case where he could see Oil pulling back down to the $60s based on the macro backdrop. We also had already seen signs of weakness under the surface in the general markets with market breadth and hundreds of stocks making new 52 week lows, so a pullback is not a surprise, as you mentioned.
      .
      When we get the main-steam media pumping fear-based news like on Friday, people point to that is the sole justification for market moves, when in reality it was just an accelerant for trends that were already in motion.

        Nov 27, 2021 27:26 AM

        For those that missed the interview focused on the coming Oil weakness from Josef on Wednesday, here’s the description and link for that interview.

        __________________________________________________________________________________________________________

        Josef Schachter – Energy Market Update, SPR’s Being Used To Slow Price

        Korelin Economics Report – November 24, 2021
        .
        “Josef Schachter, Founder of the Schachter Energy Report joins us to provide an update on the energy sector and the pullback this month in the oil price.”

        “We start with the macro factors that Josef thinks are the most important to future oil price moves. We also discuss the use of SPRs (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) where counties are starting us draw on these to keep oil prices in check. Finally we look at the stocks and where Josef sees the best opportunities when the sector finds the next bottom.”
        .

        http://www.kereport.com/2021/11/24/josef-schachter-energy-market-update-sprs-being-used-to-slow-price/

      Nov 27, 2021 27:30 AM

      As far as whether we’ll see a deflationary event before the inflationary event, that remains to be seen, but we have been in much more of a stagflationary situation most of this year as many guests and interviews that were posted in previous weeks pointed out. The massive increase in new money supply is inflationary by definition, and clearly all year long we’ve seen symptoms of inflation rising, even in the massaged and bogus government CPI readings, which leave so many areas of life out of the metrics that would make them even more inflationary. While inflation has actually been rising the costs of goods, services, and events in most people living in the real world for many years now, 2021 has been the year where even the governments desire to mute how they report consumer prices couldn’t keep the inflation genie in the bottle any longer.

        Nov 27, 2021 27:31 AM

        Mary Anne & Pamela Aden (The Aden Sisters) Stagflation Is Here: Silver and Gold Are Ready To Run
        .
        The Jay Martin Show – Nov 21, 2021
        .
        “Jay is joined by Pamela and Mary Anne Aden; industry legends and authors of the Aden Forecast. The Aden sisters are expecting slowing growth and continued inflation in 2022: the perfect setup for silver, gold, and mining stocks. The conversation touches on stagflation, stock picking, real estate, and the ideal portfolio breakdown.”
        .
        https://youtu.be/7CwhRFGBpcM

          Nov 27, 2021 27:32 AM

          Peter Schiff’s Game Plan for Investing During Inflation – Part 2
          .

          The Jay Martin Show – Nov 20, 2021
          .
          “In Part 2 of this interview with Peter Schiff, Jay gets Peter’s game-plan for building wealth during an inflationary period (beyond just gold), his thoughts on real estate markets, why the economy has not crashed, and how crypto millionaires have taken over Peter’s neighborhood.”
          .
          https://youtu.be/tYCu6XGJiMs

            Nov 27, 2021 27:32 AM

            Ted Oakley – 50% stock market crash ‘wouldn’t surprise me’; This is the biggest risk today
            .
            Kitco News – Nov 22, 2021
            .
            “The biggest risk facing investors right now is the unsustainable stock market valuations that will eventually mean revert, said Ted Oakley, founder and partner of Oxbow Advisors. ”
            .

            0:00 – Market risk
            9:25 – Monetary policy
            10:36 – Credit risk
            11:36 – Inflation risk
            14:30 – Investment implications
            15:49 – Stock market correction
            17:04 – Bear market preparation
            24:00 – Rich Kids, Broke Kids
            27:00 – Inheritance planning
            .
            https://youtu.be/ksemuSInLnM

        Nov 27, 2021 27:34 AM

        U.S. Economy Headed for Disaster with More Powell, Warns Bubba Horwitz

        Stansberry Research – Nov 24, 2021
        .
        “Energy is up 100% at the pump, that I can tell you for a fact,” says market expert Todd “Bubba” Horwitz, the founder of Bubba Trading. The rising concerns of inflation, Horwitz tells our Daniela Cambone, are not eased by the reappointment of Chairmen Powell because he will be, “forced to hike rates.”

        On the global scale, he argues that, “China and India are not going to stop burning coal,” until they find a cheaper energy source. The U.S. remains under pressure because of tragic political errors made, giving total control to OPEC, Horwitz argues. “The economy is in trouble, the country [U.S.] is in trouble, and that’s where we stand as it sits today,” he concludes.
        .
        https://youtu.be/iD7I9symGJs

          Nov 27, 2021 27:35 AM

          Danielle DiMartino Booth – Powell’s Renomination Is ‘Historic’, Stars Aligned For Market Disruption
          .
          Kitco News – Nov 22, 2021
          .
          “Biden’s reappointment of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair signals a transition away from more “radical” monetary movements, said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence.”
          .
          https://youtu.be/BEuSRbAtm1Y

      Nov 27, 2021 27:36 PM

      DT, oil is still up more than 10 fold since April of last year and the Fed’s balance sheet will not contract so there will be no deflation.
      WTIC is below the 200 day MA for the first time in a year and that will prove to be a good thing for our miners. The rotation back into the gold space will accelerate.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p17616422239&a=1071104195

    Nov 27, 2021 27:13 AM

    Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Adrian, Dana, and Marc.
    .
    Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community.

      Nov 28, 2021 28:25 AM

      Recently I learned about Aurus, a „decentralized financial infrastructure empowering gold, silver, and platinum-pegged digital assets, creating a more inclusive and efficient precious metals market“ (by it‘s own words).
      Woudn‘t it be a good idea, if the producing mining companies could bypass the commodity exchanges and thus impede constant manipulation by those harmful future-contracts.
      I would very much appreciate if you or Cory would bring this topic to the table in his conversations with the companies.
      Thanks from Germany for your constant flow of Information about the sector.

        Nov 28, 2021 28:28 PM

        Thanks for that feedback Michael and good question. We’ll run it by some of the producing companies we speak with. I know that First Majestic and Endeavour Silver have held back ounces and just placed the metals on their balance sheet as assets in the past until metals prices improved as a small step that direction (holding back supply to drive up prices). Also First Majestic is now selling some metal coins directly to end users cutting out all the middlemen, so that would be another step that way. Then there area few companies that have set up offtake agreements with manufacturers, so that is along the same line of thinking, but becomes almost like a production hedge, which can prevent a company from getting the rise in metals prices.
        .
        The issue for almost all companies, when they’ve been pressed by others with questions like these, is that they have to convince the boards of directors of the companies to hold back metal and sell it directly, and most boards are focused on quarter to quarter performance, and just want to off-load the metals right away, which then puts their production into the hands of the Comex or commercial buyers, and allows the futures contracts paper games to continue. It would have to be more of a concentrated effort across the board by most producing companies to have any real effect on the metals supply, and the big base metals producers that produce silver and some gold simply don’t care. It is an interesting concept though.

    Nov 27, 2021 27:17 AM

    This was a particularly good conversation with Rick Rule, and he makes a number of cogent points in it.

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Rick Rule says he’s buying Gold and Silver Mining Stocks
    .
    I Love Prosperity w/ Jake Ducey – Nov 20, 2021
    .
    https://youtu.be/xV1ANHZwbZg

    Joe
    Nov 27, 2021 27:32 AM

    Same thing, different day/month/year.
    Gold is a tiny market, blah blah blah.
    If people just put 1% of their investments in gold miners they’d go to the moon, blah blah blah.
    Tax loss selling next month will bring great bargains in these miners, blah blah blah.
    Yawn
    ZZZZZ
    Gold has NOTHING going for it. Short of a big war, gold with NEVER have anything going for it in the foreseeable future, no matter what Martin Armstrong or any of these pundits say.

      Nov 27, 2021 27:38 AM

      What is a yawn are low value comments like that Joe that only bash the guests we bring on, but offer no value to anyone reading.

      > If Gold has nothing going for it, then why was it up when everything else was down on Friday? 😉

      Besides Gold being in the Green on Friday, the only other 2 assets up were the VIX volatility index, and Nat Gas. Everything else was in the Red. Ponder that for a moment.
      .
      https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

        Joe
        Nov 27, 2021 27:53 AM

        The gain for gold on Friday was considerably negligible considering the selloff in the overall markets.
        And I did notice that some things gained on Friday. Stocks like Pfizer, Novavax and Moderna had very good days, and I’m glad I bought them.
        It’s been the easiest thing to do, buying stocks like these, over the past year. I’ve made substantial gains while goldbugs like you have continued to spend your life here posting hopium articles that the big bump in PMs is “just around the corner”.
        Keep hoping and dreaming, maybe some day your dream may come true.

          Nov 27, 2021 27:18 PM

          Joe, it is perfectly fine to be bearish on gold or any market or stock for that matter, but then lay out a logical thesis for it with fundamental analysis or technical analysis and make case for it, instead of just straight-up bashing the comments of the guests that come on the show. How about you post a chart showing technically why you are bearish on the Gold price and explain your thesis, as THAT would actually be a value add. If you don’t use TA to guide your investing then please outline for us, in your infinite wisdom, your fundamental economic macro argument, based on monetary policy, Fed policy, interest rates, intermarket analysis, currencies, analogs to other time periods. Again, THAT would actually have some value for readers here. In contrast, repetitively bashing the PM sector, those that invest in it, and our KER show guests does not add any value, and is just as bad a cheerleaders expecting things to go to the moon without laying out a well-reasoned bullish thesis.
          .
          Your comments are a bore Joe and quite repetitive, without any helpful and well thought out reason why you are bearish, and that was just a garbage post, like most of the ones you’ve put up over the last year or so (except for the times you’ve gone conveniently quiet when gold and the miners were ratcheting higher).
          .
          First of all, I have no personal interest in profiting off the vaccine stocks and the fear-porn they have promogulated, but then again, I have an conscience. Anyone that looks into the criminal history and record of Pfizer or the deep state connections to Moderna, and that had a shred of affection for the human race, wouldn’t buy into or support those cabals.
          .
          As for the big bump in PMs, maybe you missed the memo Joe, that gold bottomed in Dec 2015 at $1045 and did effectively double by Aug 2020 at $2089, making a 50 year high, and an All Time High. Maybe you missed the several rallies where miners went up 3x – 10x creating multi-bagger gains for those of us awake enough to buy into the weakness, and trim some back into the strength. If you missed those gains chasing corrupt big pharma companies then I hate that for you, but can’t say I’m surprised. From the March 2020 pandemic crash to June of 2021, my portfolio of about 90+ mining stocks rose cumulatively by 400%. I’m far from disappointed in the “bump” in my trading account’s value being invested in the resource sector, with the heaviest weighting to the precious metals. If this all happened before the “real” gold bull market gets underway, as Jordan just outlined again with logic and rationale, then there are much bigger gains to be had, and buying into any short-term weakness will be well-rewarded in the years to come.

            Nov 27, 2021 27:32 PM

            Jordan Roy-Byrne – Despite This Precious Metals Pullback The Medium-Term Setup Is Still Quite Bullish
            .
            Korelin Economics Report – November 24, 2021
            .
            Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to share his technical outlook on gold and the gold miners, and despite the recent pullback in precious metals, and risk of more short-term weakness, he views the medium-term setup as still quite bullish. We start with discussing the recent failed breakout in Gold last week into the strong corrective move down this week. Jordan was disappointed not to see the $1900 reached, and for the move to have retraced back down to the $1780s, but sees $1750 as strong weekly support, and $1700 as strong monthly support.

            We then pivoted over to how Fed hiking cycles often can be headwinds to the general stock indexes, but are generally tailwinds and quite bullish for gold and the gold mining stocks. With the projected plan for the Fed to start hiking in the middle of next year, then this has Jordan bullish for the PM sector once that starts in 2022.

            Lastly Jordan outlined that the cup and handle chart pattern, that has been filling out over the last decade, is now 17 months into the downward pullback that creates the handle, and that after a few more months of completion, it could be a very big impetus to send Gold and the gold miners much higher for several years. He reiterated that this is why he feels that the real bull market in precious metals hasn’t even really started yet.
            .

            http://www.kereport.com/2021/11/24/jordan-roy-byrne-despite-this-precious-metals-pullback-the-medium-term-setup-is-still-quite-bullish/

            Nov 27, 2021 27:30 PM

            Those are good points you make about Pfizer, Moderna, the Rockefeller Medicine crew and those that profit from them.

            Nov 27, 2021 27:28 PM

            Ex, if you wanted to short The American Markets what symbol would you use. DT

            Nov 27, 2021 27:42 PM

            Agreed Terry. I have zero interest in profiting from the Rockefeller medicine machine and the nasty things it’s inflicted on humanity.

            Nov 27, 2021 27:48 PM

            DT when I short the general markets I use (SQQQ) ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ, and to short the small caps I use (RWM) ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM).

            For quicker time duration shorts of the S&P I use (SPXS) Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares, because the decay with those triple inverse ETFs is pretty intense.

            Many people use options through buying puts to the short the general indexes, but options are not my thing, so there would be better people to ask about those kinds of strategies.

            Nov 27, 2021 27:49 PM
            Nov 28, 2021 28:39 AM

            The bearish sentiment comes from people who have invested in the gold majors or bought the etfs. There were two or three rallies in the last 5 years where you could have made some money.
            I used to own gdx, silj and few other majors but their performance is just painful to watch. Gdx is still near the 2016 high despite gold being close to 1800 bucks. Unless one is very good at picking juniors, it is best for most to stick to royalty companies or stay away from this sector.

          Nov 27, 2021 27:22 PM

          Joe, gold’s negligible gain was made more significant by the declines elsewhere, not less significant. Bitcoin fell about 9% while the Russell 2000 fell over 5% before recovering enough to finish down less than 4%. Even “king” dollar fell and it usually gets an automatic bid when stocks fall.

          Nov 28, 2021 28:16 AM

          Well congrats on the brilliant trade you made Joe……and pointing it out in hindsight….of course all us “gold bugs” have made very little since the last huge run up by gold…..those copper and uranium plays made us very little of the last year and a half…..and since you’ve been on here with your constant blah blah blah gold has actually been up and if you had the ability to cherry pick( like your hindsight cherry pick of vaccine drugs on Friday ) you’d be up nicely on metals too.

    Nov 27, 2021 27:28 PM

    TLT vs SPY just broke out to its best weekly RSI reading in 13 months and appears to be finishing its long bottoming process. The world is probably going risk-off for the next year.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT%3ASPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32858875828&a=976582407

    Nov 27, 2021 27:33 PM

    Fork and 500 day (2 year) MA support held before Thanksgiving and after. Notice that the Chaikin Oscillator just reached its lowest level since the govid crash 18 months ago…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p86525719924&a=1070254262

    Nov 27, 2021 27:44 PM

    Like other mining ETFs, SILJ now has a well-developed right shoulder of a bullish head and shoulders bottom pattern which needs to be confirmed/activated by a move above the neckline.
    It has also had a deep 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the 6 week move off of its October low…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95074928612

    Nov 27, 2021 27:53 PM

    GDX tested two fork supports yesterday and finished 1.5% off its low. Unlike the silver stocks, it reversed well above its 11/3 low.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p47540774599&a=1071099479

      Nov 27, 2021 27:04 PM

      GDX, GDXJ, GOEX, SILJ held above important daily pivots. SIL did not.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p69264015631

        Nov 27, 2021 27:08 PM

        When it comes to important weekly pivots, SILJ, SIL and GOEX performed bullishly while GDX and GDXJ did not.
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p23813138367

          Nov 27, 2021 27:29 PM

          Ok i agree w that Matthew…i went back into nugt/gdx on friday at nugt 48.88/gdx 31.74..at 11:53 am..i will post the set up i saw like sunday…i choose not to pick individual issues often…so i try to increase performance the old fashioned way…trading the basket….but i am building a list totally based on ker interviews…so i may try to use those names by scanning each one for bottoms….meanwhile the Monday morning should be amazing?…of course the big trouble w what i did was that the candle is a bearish engulfing on friday….i actually find it hard to believe price will close above that monday…but stranger things have occurred…i hope everyone had a meaningful T-day and stays healthy and has some luck and good fortune in the slog ahead…glta🔊💥

    Nov 27, 2021 27:46 PM

    Will this pattern hold up for Hecla? I think it will.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62165398880&a=1068475069

        Nov 27, 2021 27:51 PM

        I added a little bit to my HL position on Friday at $5.62.

        Nov 27, 2021 27:22 PM

        HL is becoming a bargain. There’s a lot of fundamentals also falling into place. Another two or three months of inflation numbers is probably going to do it. Thx for the rec…no time to read right now, but wow…quite a list of editorial reviewers.

          Nov 28, 2021 28:54 AM

          I’ve been waiting to purchase both HL and CDE again in the future after selling the spike in the past.

            Nov 28, 2021 28:07 PM

            Doc, were you at the Michigan-Ohio St. game? I was pulling for Michigan. I.U lost the old oaken bucket to Purdue. Are you going to the Michigan-Minnesota game? Watch out for Bronko Nagurski.

            Nov 28, 2021 28:30 PM

            Bonzo, I remember his son Bronko Nagurski Jr.(6’2″ 259lbs.) who played offensive tackle in the Canadian Football League. He was good but not the legend his Father was.

            Nov 28, 2021 28:08 PM

            Bonzo, I was not at the big game. I’ve been disappointed too often in the past and thought we would have the usual sequel again. What a surprise!

    Nov 27, 2021 27:58 PM

    GLD fell to the intersection of (at least) three supports…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p19511042038&a=1071114008

      BDC
      Nov 28, 2021 28:33 AM

      GLD-UDN comparison : https://postimg.cc/WtPzg4QQ
      Gap now nearly closed. Trough separation reversing.

      Nov 28, 2021 28:18 AM

      interesting chart M…..I threw my lower back out hanging drywall…so not really in the charting mode yet…w my method something interesting occurred… it is that the 3 gap play down was negated, for now…also, yes the late day reversal….also, buyers came in early on the volume of the day as i recall…then again at the end of the day….maybe that says the retail investors panicked about the govid scam theatre?…pure speculation…we will see i suppose…nap time…lmao

    Nov 28, 2021 28:21 AM

    Recently I learned about Aurus, a „decentralized financial infrastructure empowering gold, silver, and platinum-pegged digital assets, creating a more inclusive and efficient precious metals market“ (by it‘s own words).
    Woudn‘t it be a good idea, if the producing mining companies could bypass the commodity exchanges and thus impede constant manipulation by those harmful future-contracts.
    I would very much appreciate if Cory would bring this topic to the table in his conversations with the companies.
    Thanks from Germany for your constant flow of Information about the sector.

    Nov 28, 2021 28:27 AM

    I know there are a few posters here who like Goldfinger, Ex introduced him to this blog, here is his shopping list for tax loss season. I hope no one else posted this but it doesn’t hurt to give it exposure. DT

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/goldfingers-2021-tax-loss-silly-season-shopping-list

      Nov 28, 2021 28:31 PM

      DT – Thanks for sharing that tax loss silly season shopping list from Goldfinger. We’re actually having Robert on the show on Monday, so we can dig into those and the concept of buying into the weakness in that episode. Cheers!

    Nov 28, 2021 28:11 PM

    Hey DT, thanks for the list. I had to lol when I saw that ridgeline was on the list because I’ve been looking at that one for a little while now, but hadn’t pulled the trigger.
    I’ll leave it to Ex to share any valuable insights, if need be, on the list of six given that he has a wide and deep awareness of many PM companies, and it’s possible that he agrees with some of the proposed companies – maybe you have others Ex?

      Nov 28, 2021 28:46 PM

      Hey there Canuckski. As luck would have it, we actually have the CEO Chad from Ridgeline set up to come on the show this coming Tuesday, so how about that timing? 🙂
      .
      As for tax loss season, I agree with Dave Erfle that much of it already happened in the late summer when these stocks fell down hard in August and September, but if the recent rout in PMs causes one more last wave of tax loss selling here in the next few weeks, then there are PLENTY of companies that have been beaten down to silly levels at this point, beyond the handful that Goldfinger covered.
      .
      Personally, I’m more animated by picking up producers and advanced developers that are on sale, as they actually have metals in the ground underpinning them, and when the sector turns those are the companies that start to run first. I’m less focused and have been less focused on the explorers, although I hold about a half dozen silver explorers and half dozen gold explorers.
      .
      Exploration stocks are much less tethered to the metals prices and more based on the drills hitting paydirt or not, and whether their thesis is proving out. They can still move higher in a corrective move when and if they hit, and they can still get creamed if they disappoint, even if the metals are running higher. Obviously, lower metals prices are a headwind, and rising metals prices are a tailwind, but the exploration stocks can march to the beat of their own drum regardless of the macro backdrop.
      .
      It really comes down to have they made an economic discovery or not, and that takes time to pan out (years not just one drill campaign). Those types of exploration stocks can move pre-drilling on a good narrative and promotional pump, or even after a discovery hole or good maiden drill campaign, or sometimes on the 3rd, 4th, or 5th year of drilling if they really find something big that reframes them in investors eyes. However, just because they are cheap and beaten down now, doesn’t mean they are going to hit paydirt next drill season, so it’s a bigger speculation to take. Keep in mind there, are plenty of exploration stocks that raised a bunch of money, went out and did all the right work, but the thesis hasn’t played out yet, and so they are cheap for a reason.
      .
      It also comes down to the pattern of behavior from the management teams behind them, and how quickly they burn through money and need to keep raising which dilutes down current shareholders. It’s important to look at what exploration teams are paying themselves, if the managements % ownership is high because they gave themselves millions of cheap $.01 founder’s shares, or if they have excessive options programs based on not doing that much. It comes down to what the overall G & A expenses are, and really the ratio of how much money raised is going into the ground, and whether that money put into the ground got results that moved the share price higher. There are about 1000 metals explorers, and the vast majority are going to fail and not find an economic deposit that the big boys will want to acquire and move through into production. Most of them are down 40%-80% since their August 2020 highs, and some of that is because they didn’t execute, and some of that is the sector weakness.
      .
      Think about how few companies actually get taken over for their assets in a given year (maybe a dozen or two), and most of those are advanced developers with economic studies in place, or they are smaller or distressed producers with known ounces in the ground and known operations.
      .
      Again, for me personally, I’d rather keep bottom-fishing the producers, royalty companies, and developers that have sold down lower during tax loss selling season, to catch the wave higher when metals prices rise in 2022.
      .
      There are clearly still some amazing deals in the explorers, and if one has the conviction of the team, targets, jurisdiction, and drill program, and they are already cashed up for next year, then they could be great speculations at this point. There are many resource investors that only invest in the explorers and hope that out of a basket of 10-20 stocks that 2-3 hit it really big and bail out the others that fizzle. Also, clearly the explorers can and do move the most on a percentage basis, if they become one of the hot mania stocks of the day. However, that depends on them hitting something that animates the markets, and just because they go on a rocket ride on one drill campaign, doesn’t mean they retain those valuations. In the beginning they run big based on the blue-sky upside and investor hopium on “how big could this deposit get?” Eventually though, after repeated drill campaigns, and when resource estimates come out, and economic studies are completely, then they find gravity and come back down to Earth again. Once their market caps get too swollen it is easy to do peer comparisons to other existing developer and producers with known ounces in the ground and see if the valuations still make any logical sense.
      .
      We can all think of the dozen or so explorers that have raced higher in a tough PM sector this year and were richly rewarded, just like we see stories like that in any other year, but the other hundreds and hundreds of companies will be pop-n-drops. As to which ones hit it big and become a sensation, and which ones chop around or drop down is as much luck as it is science. Many explorers will pop on the news hype and drop if the results are only good, ok, or sub-par, or sometimes retail hordes or newsletter writers or promotional houses pump up a stock to such lofty levels, that no matter what they drill it can’t sustain those levels. Then there are drill plays, actually putting out solid results that just don’t get the visibility or don’t have the mania story behind them for one reason or another, and they can languish even if they are doing really good work.
      .
      The explorers are the riskiest types of mining stocks to purchase, and I still have a dozen lottery tickets in place for drill plays, and may add to a few right now while they’re all cheap. However, it should be pointed out that the whole PM sector is cheap, so my preference is buying the quality names on sale that have a margins of safety from the ounces in the ground and their production profiles.

        Nov 28, 2021 28:55 PM

        And there you have it folks…. Ex reliably and kindly offers additional insight! I do agree that the ones with proven reserves, or those with a mine currently in production, offer a bit more to the investor in terms of strategic confidence in future positive pricing and potential for gains. Thanks Ex, always appreciated!

          Nov 28, 2021 28:51 PM

          Sure Canuckski. Always glad to share ideas with fellow like-minded investors here.

          To the point about those companies with proven reserves, or currently in production, out of that list that Goldfinger had Elevation Mining (formerly Northern Vertex) fits the bill nicely, and it really has been sold off hard. That’s one from his list I may add to here personally, but that is not investment advice.

          May your investing be prosperous sir!

        BDC
        Nov 29, 2021 29:53 AM

        Another Resource Investing course by Excelsior. Thank you!

          Nov 29, 2021 29:00 AM

          Haha! Thanks BDC. Just a resource rant… 🙂

    Nov 28, 2021 28:46 PM

    Hello KER board. Happy belated thanksgiving. I reviewed charts for my portfolio on multiple time frames and didn’t find anything overly alarming yet. But that could change on several charts if we get a little more downside. Best of luck to all in the coming week!

      Nov 28, 2021 28:51 PM

      Hey Charles, good to see you checking in here sir. Yeah, overall nothing too alarming, but we’ll see how things kick off this next week. The way Friday went was pretty wild in most markets, and we’ll need to see how much follow through volatility there is in the weeks ahead. It was a bit reassuring that gold was in the green, while there was so much pressure in the general markets and other commodities like oil. Maybe some more generalists are now starting to consider the barbarous relic as a safe haven once again.

    Nov 28, 2021 28:07 PM

    I thought this was an interesting Bob Hoyle interview. I always like the way he dissects the market.

    https://goldseek.com/article/goldseek-radio-nugget-bob-hoye-excesses-unseen-great-depression

    Nov 29, 2021 29:27 AM

    Monday morning 45 degree walk down starting at 5 am EST. I wish everyone would wait until the market was open and quit going after bad prices pre-market.

    BDC
    Nov 29, 2021 29:02 AM

    SPQ(Others): https://tinyurl.com/n3usfa27
    Possible Uranium TURN.

      BDC
      Nov 29, 2021 29:21 AM

      Long STTDF.

        BDC
        Nov 30, 2021 30:43 AM

        Sold.

      BDC
      Nov 30, 2021 30:56 AM

      Nope: Following markets down.

    Nov 29, 2021 29:15 AM

    Boss resources, BQSSF reads to be up 600% today (not calculating bid/ask)

    It’s not traded, TD rejects my order… halted or a glitch?

      BDC
      Nov 29, 2021 29:36 AM

      Looks real. No news yet. Congrats to holders!

      Nov 29, 2021 29:54 AM

      Boss Energy(BOE.AX), stock split, ratio 0.12, ex-distribution November29. Payment date December07.

        BDC
        Nov 29, 2021 29:09 AM

        Thanks! Probably no change then.
        Friday .216 / .12 = 1.80
        Bid 1.50 Ask 2.24

    Nov 29, 2021 29:36 AM

    Some up some down except for Emerita up 10% early. That makes everything added together as down except for Emerita. Emerita just completed a meeting in Saville where they had mining execs, bankers and high net worth individuals walking the land. It appeared to go well but a lot to do yet.