Jeff Christian – Hard Gold And Silver Lessons Learned In 2021

Shad Marquitz
December 22, 2021

Jeffery Christian, Managing Partner at CPM Group, joins us to discuss the video he released outlining some of the hard gold and silver lessons learned in 2021.  We start off with the narratives around silver supply and the silver squeeze movement earlier in the year, and then transition over to calls for the demise of the US dollar and global financial system in 2021 that did not surface.


We next pivot over to how geopolitics, Fed policy, and the macro state of the US economy may impact precious metals moving into 2022.  Despite the recent weakness in the metals and mining stocks, Jeff remains somewhat bullish that gold and the related stocks may move mildly higher into the latter part of 2022, and reminds investors that the overall annual average price of gold was actually at all time highs in 2021.

Here is a link to the video referenced in this daily editorial:

    Dec 22, 2021 22:00 PM


    looks like my guy is re-entering the leveraged vehicle like NUGT,JNUG, ULG and AGQ. January might be better than most expect.?

      Dec 22, 2021 22:16 PM

      Considering that January is the most bullish month for PMs, using a 30 year seasonality chart, it wouldn’t actually be that surprising to see a nice move higher from here in tax loss silly season in December into the Q1 Run.

        Dec 22, 2021 22:58 PM

        The last two January’s were down but even if they weren’t, no one should base their actions on seasonal tendencies.

          Dec 22, 2021 22:29 PM

          I would agree with Matthew on this! Although we sometimes look for patterns and pass algorithms, cycles are meant to throw you off!

          With that being said I’ve been very bullish since the bottom two months ago in the miners. Nothing has changed. This jumping on and off a ship with different trading vechicles is 100% classic way of losing money In end! Just my own advice

          To each there own.

          While I’m here I like the patterns I’m seeing and it’s reflective of the old mentality climbing the wall of fear as some of us know in here.

          Let’s take brixton for example and it’s current strength. It’s clear there is an underlying power buying it and the Algos can’t control it with its massive pops. Would not be surprised to see big action tomorrow and if not very soon!

          Many and I repeat many will focus on gold and not realize the miners are going to do increíble things it’s just gratifying to see it from a trained lens at least I think lol!

          All the best to all…


            Dec 22, 2021 22:57 PM

            I doubt their are any serious hedge funds or institutions with trading algos around Brixton, as it is far too small of a micro cap stock for it be controlled by algos. Those robotic trading algorithms are mostly tracking the more liquid ETFs if anything, and maybe some of the largest producers.

            Dec 23, 2021 23:48 AM

            Lots of people use algos for trading, not just hedge funds. Brixton is not excluded from that approach.

            Dec 23, 2021 23:01 AM

            Sure, but he said “algos can’t control it” implying there were big forces using algos to push Brixton around, and that seems quite unlikely. Most of the people moving the nano-cap resource stocks around like Brixton are the smaller funds, family offices, or individual retail investors. Some of the most sophisticated may be using programmed computer mathematical algos and quant trading programs, but in general the tinier microcap stocks are not as massaged with those kinds of machine trading algos like the larger more liquid stocks are that do get gamed. When people complain about the algos controlling their tiny junior mining stock prices, it is more narrative, and is much more likely just technical traders using basic charting to pick support and resistance levels.

            Dec 23, 2021 23:31 AM

            Great exchange between ……… you guys………….. ex, mat, and glen……….. of course JMO

          Dec 22, 2021 22:54 PM

          It was a 30 year seasonality chart, and not just cherry picking the last two years as exceptions, and there were plenty of years where buying in tax loss selling season in December was a wise trade as things move higher into the Jan/Feb/(sometimes even into early March) for the #Q1Run. Nobody should likewise base their investing on just pointing out the exceptions and outliers, as if that is proof that there isn’t a cyclical trend over a longer time period (like in this case 30 years of data).
          Buying in Dec 2015 for the move higher in Jan/Feb/March 2016, buying in Dec 2016 going into Jan/Feb 2017, buying in Dec 2017 going into Jan/Feb 2018, buying in tax loss selling 2018 into Jan/Feb 2019, and yes even buying in Dec 2019 moving into Jan/Feb 2020 was a profitable trade.

          Here is a chart of Dec 2019 – Feb 2020 in the GDXJ for example where it moved from $37 in Dec to around $45 in Feb before it tanked later in the month. There were many true junior stocks that out performed the GDXJ but it illustrates the point and seasonal trend well enough.


          2021 was a bit of an anomaly on many levels, but it was still a good trade to buy into December for a quick swing-trade to higher prices in early January, and I had mentioned so when trimming back some gold stocks in early January. However, the silver stocks did have the short-duration move higher into the early Feb Silver Squeeze for a tradable rally, for those nimble enough to trade it. I did pull profits in most of the larger cap dual-listed Silver miners on that move up in early February since those were the ones that the flood of Reddit, Robinhood, WeBull, Stash platform retail investors could actually trade (most couldn’t trade the Canadian tickers or even OTC tickers in their US trading platforms favored by the retail throngs).
          Regardless, I wasn’t suggesting everyone should invest this way, just simply stating it would not surprise me in the slightest to the see the precious metals rally into the seasonally strongest calendar month of the year – January. That was all I was saying.

            Dec 23, 2021 23:41 AM

            I didn’t say you were cherry-picking nor did I imply it. I was just pointing out the flaw in telling Confused that “it wouldn’t actually be that surprising” after tax loss selling, etc. It didn’t happen the last two years and I’ll add that being a 30 year chart does little for the odds in this very cyclical, non-linear business. The best seasonal charts are made with respect to bull and bear markets rather than just looking at as many years in a row as possible.
            If anything suggests that “it wouldn’t be all that surprising”, it’s the charts. Of course, what is surprising and what isn’t is highly subjective so “we” look at the prevailing words and actions of others. Doing so shows that few have shown anything but skepticism or fear lately which obviously implies that many will in fact be surprised if January goes well.

            Dec 23, 2021 23:11 AM

            Being on a 30 year chart does increase the odds, and is quantifiable in that seasonality chart posted up at the top of the blog from Variant Perception, not subjective. I do agree that they are best when consolidated down more specifically to bullish or bearish periods as analogs, like Jordan Roy-Bryne often does.

            The seasonal trend of buying during December tax loss selling weakness in 2019 and then selling some back during the pop in January or better in February of the Q1 Run was still a good trade as evidenced in the chart up above I posted where GDXJ moved from $37 to $45 from Dec to February.
            It makes sense logically that many investors sell their dogs for tax losses at year-end, and then many of those same stocks are bought right back 30 days later after the wash sale period, in addition to the new incoming trading volume from many investors and funds initiating new trades in January for their next year strategy.
            Seeing January as the most positive seasonal month in that chart, based on that data over 30 years, is not really surprising in that sense, as it logically makes sense. It’s definitely not the only tool to consider, and of course, charts are primary for looking for entries, trends, and exits, and fundamental drivers of a sector or stock are relevant, as are sentiment readings, and ideally they all line up in tandem for big moves higher/lower.

      Dec 22, 2021 22:09 PM

      I’ve been trading JNUG/JDST, mostly selling the options because of the increased decay factor with the leveraged funds.

      Dec 22, 2021 22:53 PM

      Thanks Confused. Yes, I believe January will be better than most expect. If any KER guests have talked about buying lately, I missed it.
      I called Hecla a buy on the day that it bottomed over a week ago and today it closed above its 20 day ma/ema for the first time in over a month (after giving its first MACD buy signal in over 2 months).

      After this short term rise stalls, we might still get some impressive volatility to keep most players rattled and doubting but the lows are most likely in place.
      The setup is similar to what we experienced six years ago. GDX bottomed in September 2015 only to have the low slightly exceeded in January 2016 before everything took off. This time, we again had GDX bottom in September but the slight new low that followed happened in December instead of January.

        Dec 22, 2021 22:40 PM

        I would agree Matthew and add that this particular trend has been “ By the dips” and everyone is in denial!

        Also I would like to express that I believe we are in a current intermediate trend up which I have not heard anyone say and forgive me if anyone mentioned it! But we are 2/3 months in and as I stated a few times we are grade up at least into march/April before good correction and higher.

        Let’s see how she plays

        Dec 22, 2021 22:01 PM

        Craig Hemke, Goldfinger, John Rubino, Brien Lundin, and Dave Erfle had mentioned the potential to see a move higher into the seasonally strong period of Q1 (where Jan & Feb) are typically good months for the PMs. Steve Penny mentioned the technical set up potential to bounce coming out of the November draw-down.
        Also Erik Wetterling pointed out that with so many drill assays from the summer still trickling in for many exploration stocks that Jan and Feb may see some upside movement in them as the drill assays start getting reported to the market, creating a delayed period of drilling newsflow at a time of year that is normally quiet with most results having already been reported in Q3 and Q4, especially for Canadian or US companies that deal with colder weather moving in towards year end.

          Dec 22, 2021 22:29 PM

          After A Dreadful Year It’s Time For A Santa Rally In Gold Miners
          @Goldfinger on 13 Dec 2021
          “After a stellar year in 2020, the precious metals mining sector has had a dreadful year in 2021; the GDXJ Junior Gold Miners ETF is down 25.2% so far in 2021 and many individual gold mining stocks are down 50% or more. Suffice to say, there isn’t much to be cheery about if you’ve been long gold miners in 2021. However, that could be about to change as bullish seasonal tailwinds begin to take hold over the next couple months:”

          “Over the last 20 years gold has average about a 5% gain between mid-December and the end of February. A 5% gain from today’s price of $1788 would put gold tantalizing close to $1900, and likely trigger a sharp rally in beaten down and out of favor miners.”

          “The largest gold miner in the world, Newmont (NYSE:NEM), is also sending a positive signal for the gold mining sector…”

        Dec 23, 2021 23:30 AM

        he put up loads of charts outlining that the “bottom-may-be-in,” but only bought the first of three positions on several leveraged trading vehicles. He wants to wait another day or two before either adding seconds positions. He is actually pretty conservative/cautious. I, on the other hand, don’t have time to dip-in and out of these markets so I have been holding since the correction began kicking my face in 16 months ago. I do not have to time to follow all those charts closely and will only bail on an “Armageddon alarm” by ramb. At some point there will be a major move and I hope to be holding on to what might be coming. Old Turkey 101!!!

          Dec 23, 2021 23:05 PM

          Thanks. He will probably be rewarded for waiting to buy more. Based on the intraday charts of the ETFs (like GDX and SILJ), it looks like next week could start with a pullback. Of course the daily charts are friendly to more upside before taking a break so it could be the following week that gives us some weakness.
          SILJ vs QQQ is at resistance but looks good. I wonder if it will dip into that big 12/16 gap before heading higher.

    Dec 22, 2021 22:03 PM

    Had a second listen to the recent and compelling Calibre podcast with the hub and spoke system, their operations guy a 30 year veteran at Newmont and all that unexplored land to develop.

      Dec 22, 2021 22:14 PM

      Yes, Calibre is doing a great job expanding production output by aggressively drilling and developing more spoke satellite deposits… with Eastern Borosi up as the 4th spoke in the next 2 years. They’ll do the same thing with the Fiore assets in Nevada by feeding the Pan Mine with the development projects Gold Rock and Illipah.

    Dec 22, 2021 22:00 PM

    Silver is up $1.41 since bottoming precisely at speed line and Schiff fork supports…

      Dec 24, 2021 24:49 AM

      Matthew – Do you hand draw those speed lines or is there an algorithm that does it for you in Stockcharts? In my charting software I on have fib fans.

        Dec 24, 2021 24:05 PM

        The speed lines appear automatically after choosing just two points. In this case, a high then a low. Others will be a low and then a high. I’d forget all about speed lines if I had to attempt to draw them accurately myself!

          Dec 24, 2021 24:06 PM

          For anyone that might be wondering, the same goes for the Fibonacci Fan lines.

          Dec 24, 2021 24:27 PM

          Thanks Matthew. I guess I will just use the fib fans. Not really sure how speed lines are different, but sounds like I am fine without! Merry Christmas!

    Dec 22, 2021 22:06 PM

    UUP has been stuck below the same important resistance for the last month which shows the misplaced confidence of the dollar bulls.

    Dec 23, 2021 23:11 AM

    Confounded by the huge difference between the GSR in price (1:78) versus amount extracted from the earth (1:8). The obvious answer (to me anyhow) is that gold is the ultimate store of value and thus receives a huge premium while silver is mainly a commodity and only a store of value for the ‘little guy’. I understand spoofing occurs regularly but impossible to put a value on how much that tamps down the silver price. Most people I know who know anything about the silver market would welcome true price discovery.

    Dec 23, 2021 23:55 AM

    Bought BOIL.

    Dec 24, 2021 24:28 PM

    Speaking of algos, something makes my account alternate days an stocks to achieve a close to “even” days for over a year. I can trade them out, get different amounts of each, reduce the number I hold… but the same pattern has prevailed. Lately there has been a change where instead of some up and some down, it is alternating days of mostly up or mostly down zeroing out the previous day. Put major players in jail and it would stop. Intervention is purposeful so that Central Bankers determine winners and losers so nothing is left to chance.