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Dave Erfle – What Will Change Investor Apathy In The Precious Metals Sector?

Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of the Junior Miner Junky, joins us to discuss what may change the general lack of interest from generalists and even resource investors in the precious metals sector, and in particular, the mining stocks as 2022 unfolds.  Dave outlines parallels the current low volume apathy in the gold and silver mining stocks as reminiscent to the period in late 2015 to early 2016 in a few different ways; from the tightening Fed policy, to a backdrop of surging general US equities markets, and then the low relative valuations of companies with ounces in the ground.  

 

Next we take a look at trading in the largest gold mining company and sector bellwether, (NEM) Newmont Mining as a potential early indicator of some generalist capital coming into the sector, but counterbalance that with the lackluster trading in GDX and note the importance of the $30 level on the longer term monthly charts.   Dave outlines that the current macroeconomic backdrop most similar to the 1970s stagflationary environment, and goes on to opine on Fed policy, and why he is not concerned about a big pullback in gold, or a downside breach of $1675, heading into the period leading up to the first rate hikes.

 

 We wrap up with why Dave is most attracted to high-margin single-asset gold development  projects in safe Tier 1 jurisdictions, and how they have been the most sought after companies in the latest wave of merger and acquisition transactions over the last few months.

Click here to visit Dave’s site – the Junior Miner Junky.

Discussion
38 Comments
    Jan 12, 2022 12:00 AM

    10 Reasons to Be Bullish the Gold Complex in 2022
    .
    David Erfle – Friday January 7th, 2022
    .
    “The gold price has entered the new year by continuing to whipsaw investors on both sides of the trade. The first week of 2022 began with volatile trading on either side of the key $1800 level until the Federal Reserve minutes from December, released on Wednesday, pulled the rug out from under the bulls.”

    “The gold price was sold down along with the stock market immediately after the minutes revealed that policymakers agreed to hasten the end of their pandemic-era program of bond purchases, and issued forecasts anticipating three quarter-percentage-point rate increases during 2022.”
    .
    https://mailchi.mp/af9bbf9ad337/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1600450

    Reply
      Jan 12, 2022 12:09 AM

      As Good as Gold — 12 Jan 2022
      .

      Pepperstone – January 11, 2022
      .
      “Global Head of Research Chris Weston is back with As Good as Gold, taking us through the Gold market and it core influences. Get a holistic overview of where Gold is possibly headed with both fundamental and technical analysis.”
      .
      https://youtu.be/mByK3ROMKdQ

      Reply
        Jan 12, 2022 12:12 AM

        Gold Price & Federal Reserve Update
        .
        iGold Advisor – Christopher Aaron – January 12, 2022 #TechnicalAnalysis
        .
        Precious Metals Intelligence – For general gold, silver, and mining investors:
        .
        https://youtu.be/Nb5R_xyArfg

        Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:04 AM

    FedCoin is Coming, Say Goodbye to Your Privacy in 2022 Warns E.B. Tucker | Outlook2022
    .
    Stansberry Research – Jan 7, 2022
    .
    “The crypto hype is a, “sweepstakes and creates capital gains for users,” and will eventually end with the creation of “FedCoin,”  asserts E.B. Tucker, author of “Why Gold, Why Now?” Tucker says that “Bitcoin is infinitely trackable and traceable,” which limits the anonymous features many rave about, he tells our Daniela Cambone on this edition of Outlook 2022: The Tipping Point.”

    “As the world moves further towards electric vehicle adaptation, “now is the time to position for copper,” Tucker suggests. By equating the precious metal to “the next oil,” he paints the image of copper’s importance in this decade. Platinum and palladium, “just don’t have the same drivers of demand,” compared to copper and nickel, all the while something is not sitting right with gold’s current image in the market, he concludes.”
    .
    https://youtu.be/zhv2Z2z9JoU

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:07 AM

    David Morgan’s 2022 Outlook – This Is ‘The Most Undervalued Metal On The Planet’
    .
    Kitco News – Jan 11, 2022
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    “Expect silver, the “most undervalued metal on the planet” to finally breach $30 an ounce in 2022,” said David Morgan of TheMorganReport.com.
    .

    0:00 – Market action
    3:24 – Silver premiums
    4:10 – Silver retail demand
    6:15 – Stock market outlook
    10:40 – Inflation
    12:00 – Cryptos
    17:26 – Silver’s price outlook
    .
    https://youtu.be/jML3znQZUm0

    Reply
      Jan 12, 2022 12:59 PM

      A lot of luck with that call—I can tell you it in all probability won’t happen in the first half of 2022.

      Reply
        Jan 13, 2022 13:30 AM

        Hi Doc. Do you think David Morgan could be right about Silver eclipsing the stiff $30 resistance in the latter half of 2022, once the Fed rate hiking cycle has started up?

        Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:39 AM

    Buy O3 mining.
    Best value going into next 2-3 years with low risk.

    Reply
      Jan 12, 2022 12:51 AM

      I recall 03 being recommended a couple years ago.
      Needless to say its gone nowhere since then. Meaning riches has avoided that call.

      I doubt its really going to matter which PM shares a person buys, they will all increase.

      Yes yes yes, some will increase more than others, so? buy them all. 😉

      Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:55 AM

    A lesson in not rushing time symmetry…glta

    https://tos.mx/VtPO8rL

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:06 AM

    Good so far this week.

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:37 AM

    GBTC vs. BITO…Trade GBTC…The BITO is lagging by 30%…glta

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:22 AM

    exited Boil due to that horizontal blue line on monthly /NG…..This has insufficient volume for this time in the month …also, the 4 hour chart is in a TD9 count at number 8 and typically from weekly charts the /NG retraces about 50% of the initial weekly breakout bar…glta

    MO. /NG
    https://tos.mx/XOFYDfu

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:33 PM
    Jan 12, 2022 12:51 PM

    SILJ vs GDX is up 6.2% from Monday’s low and closed today at .3955 which was the low in August and .001 below the July low. It’s bullish for the sector when the silver stocks beat the gold stocks as they are doing now.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93208218609&a=1054467271

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:54 PM
    Jan 12, 2022 12:56 PM

    GDX is again at the resistance that stopped it on the 5th but I doubt it will be stopped by it this time.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p77970100932&a=1092627729

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:04 PM

    These are the best technicals for gold in a long time. February should be a very pivotal month. We should move higher into the 4th week of January to the area of $1840 and the odds of February telling us whether we break significantly in either direction are very high.

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:06 PM

    Bought a beaten down stock for the first time in a long time today. Even if we begin a new bull move here there is a lot of time to purchase many of these beaten down PM stocks.

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:17 PM

    The week isn’t over but the loonie looks great and is in sync with gold. Both are probably going to finish the week above the same important weekly pivot resistance and Kaufman’s moving average for the first time in two months.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p34582010326&a=1096202169

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:18 PM

    Millennial Precious Metals put out late news today (drill results). They are on the ceo.ca site but I didn’t pick them up in just the news sites. Look decent.

    Reply
      Jan 12, 2022 12:15 PM

      Yep, I saw that today, and we may be having them back on the show again next week to unpack that large intercept to investors.

      Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:48 PM

    The current month is more pivotal than February and December was even more pivotal as I pointed out to a friend with the following chart way before Christmas. (The annotation “so this month is critical” refers to December.)
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=t8297447293c&a=1073871759&r=1642027412595&cmd=print

    Reply
    BDC
    Jan 12, 2022 12:54 PM
    Jan 12, 2022 12:01 PM

    The current gold price is important based on several factors. One is this fork that began in 1999:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&st=1999-04-08&id=t4975941891c&a=421389287&r=1642028272190&cmd=print

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:10 PM

    The HUI ended the day at resistance that will be overcome easily, and probably tomorrow…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p00244139560&a=982826709

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:11 PM
    Jan 12, 2022 12:52 PM

    Silver/SLV had its best closing price of the new year today:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p70593360135&a=1078126175

    Reply
    Jan 12, 2022 12:54 PM
    Jan 12, 2022 12:58 PM

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