Craig Hemke – Precious Metals Surge Higher This Week Supported By Several Key Data Points
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to unpack some of the macro factors that could be behind the recent move higher in the precious metals and commodities. We start off by looking at a chart of the Chinese Credit Impulse as it relates to moves in gold and commodities and it has seen a turn higher underpinning a move higher in the metals. China’s central bank is running a counter strategy to other central banks and is still loosening and cutting rates, so this could be moving the markets more than some realize.
We then shift over to how the market is also watching oil and gas keep running higher, tending to lead the commodities sector direction higher in tandem. The surging energy sector is supporting the realization to generalist that inflation is, in fact, more heated and stickier, which is why there are expectations of Fed to do 4 rate hikes in 2022 to fight inflation.
Next we have Craig review what he sees in the COT Commitment Of Traders report, which has been relatively neutral, but there has been a slight change lately where swap dealer banks have gone net long. We also outline how Silver has been moving well lately, but is now approaching the 200 day simple moving average, which is overhead resistance, and it could be rejected back, or could pick up speed if it is able to break above this level. We wrap up with a broad look at what’s on tap for next week in the general markets, geopolitics, Feb futures contracts rolling to the April, and expectations for the coming FOMC meeting.