Dave Erfle – Gold Getting A Double Premium Off Fiscal And Geopolitical Drivers, Awaiting The Cup And Handle Pattern Resolution

Shad Marquitz
February 22, 2022

Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review the recent strength in gold and how much of it is beyond the inflation market pressures and expectations of Fed rate hikes, and due to the geopolitical news out of Ukraine.  We discuss the key support levels to watch in Gold, as well as in the miners by way of GDX and GDXJ if some of the geopolitical premium were to come out of the market on some sort of resolution.


Dave also notes that as we approach the end of the month on Monday, that it would also be very constructive on a technical basis to see a close above $1,900 for February. Next we turned to reasons why the mining stocks are still continuing to lag the move higher in the metals prices and both inflation and interest rates play a part.  It was pointed out that while higher inflation has affected the near-term outlook for producers margins and developers economic studies, that if the larger term cup and handle plays out where gold moves back up above the recent all time highs that this will vastly improve the margins and economic outlook for gold projects.  We wrap up reviewing why Dave is avoiding most drill plays and discovery plays at present, and more focused on finding good value in the miners that already have defined ounces in the ground, in safe jurisdictions, on large projects that would be attractive to the larger miners.  

Click here to visit the Junior Miner junky website to learn more about Dave’s newsletter.

    Feb 22, 2022 22:10 PM

    Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop 12:20 AM · Feb 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App

    The Great Rotation – Value versus Growth

    Feb 22, 2022 22:11 PM

    Looking for the Miners to Confirm Gold Breakout

    David Erfle – Friday February 18th, 2022

    “In a flight to safety, as continued signs of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and some less-than-stellar economic data ushered in risk-off sentiment, the gold price reached strong overhead resistance at $1900 on Thursday. With 100% certainty of the Federal Reserve monetary punchbowl about to be emptied, the scary geopolitical headlines, widespread inflation, and deteriorating economic data has gold prices on the cusp of a major upside breakout.”

    “In last week’s missive, I noted the likelihood of a bullish breakout of the gold price from an 18-month bullish symmetrical triangle awaiting a strong catalyst to break in either direction soon. With investors recognizing the 13-year party on Wall Street might be coming to an end, along with the realization of cryptocurrencies not being a hedge against inflation, the addition of geopolitical tensions is fueling an upside breakout in the safe-haven metal.”

    “Technically, if April Gold Futures close above $1900 on a weekly basis later today, the odds increase of the breakout continuing towards the $1920 level next week. Further out, we need to see a monthly close above $1900 for technical confirmation of a bullish breakout in gold.”

    Feb 22, 2022 22:15 PM

    Gold price holds $1,900 as Biden announces first tranche of Russia sanctions

    Anna Golubova – Kitco News – Tuesday February 22, 2022

    Feb 22, 2022 22:18 PM

    Gold Market Is Finally Starting To Outperform Broader Commodities – MKS PAMP Group

    Neils Christensen – Kitco News – Tuesday February 22, 2022

    “The gold market continues to ride a wave of geopolitical fear, with prices holding new critical support above $1,900 an ounce. The precious metal could have further upside momentum as it has become a commodity sector leader.”

    In a note published last week, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP Group, said that “gold has been outperforming the broader commodity index for the last two weeks. She noted that gold prices are up 5.5% in the last two weeks while the Bloomberg Commodity ex-Precious Metals Index is up 1.5%.”

    “That’s a largely contrarian move as the market has favored all commodities ex-Precious for some time now,” she said. “Clearly, this is a very bullish signal for gold, but it’s just one angle. the key takeaway is Precious metals are at a steep discount vs. all other commodities with relative prices at their cheapest since these indices began, in 2009.”

    Feb 22, 2022 22:21 PM

    Gold Stocks: Some Profit Booking Is Prudent

    Stewart Thomson – Feb 22, 2022

    “Gold is the money of champions, and fiat appears to be the money of… chumps.”

    “It should be obvious that fiat-oriented freedom isn’t real freedom.”

    “Investors have significant profits on gold stocks bought at my buy zone of late September/Early October, and the time is here for conservative investors to book some of their gains. For a closer look at the $1900 sell zone, please double-click to enlarge. $1900 is significant resistance and while a lot of bullish factors are in play, from a tactical viewpoint, it’s a profit booking zone for mining stock investors.”

    Feb 22, 2022 22:47 PM

    Watch These 3 Indicators to Confirm Gold Breakout

    Jordan Roy-Byrne – The Daily Gold – Feb 19, 2022

    “Gold needs a weekly and monthly close above $1900 for a breakout. A breakout is when a market clears a critical resistance level and proceeds to launch higher. The breakout is the start of the move.”

    “We highlight 3 indicators that will confirm a breakout in Gold and a new bull run in Gold and gold stocks. These are Gold against foreign currencies, Gold against the stock market and the GDX advance/decline line.”

    Feb 23, 2022 23:32 AM

    Gold Markets Very Noisy

    Christopher Lewis – FX Empire – Tue, February 22, 2022

    “Gold markets are very volatile during the trading session on Tuesday, as we have initially shot towards the $1920 level, before pulling back after tensions seem to be waning. Furthermore, gold markets have gotten a bit parabolic, so it is not a huge surprise to see that we are struggling to hang on to gains at this point.”

    “The $1880 level underneath should continue to be support, and therefore I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to it. If we were to break down below there, the market could very well struggle in general.”

    “It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but regardless we are a bit overdone, and a pullback is probably healthy. Keep in mind that markets cannot go straight up in the air forever, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would continue to see a little bit of hesitation. That being said though, if we were to break above the $1920 level, then we are likely to go absolutely bonkers and send this market much higher. At that point, the market would go looking towards the $2000 level eventually. I do think we get there based upon inflation, but I do not think we get there as quickly as the market has been behaving as of late.”

    Feb 23, 2022 23:51 AM

    (USAS) (USA) Americas Gold and Silver Provides Multi-year Production Outlook and 2021 Production Results

    22 Feb 2022

    “Silver and silver equivalent production is expected to significantly increase over the next couple of years and benefit from continuing strong silver and base metal prices,” stated Americas President and CEO Darren Blasutti. “The Cosalá Operations silver production is expected to increase towards the second half of the year as higher-grade silver ore from the Upper Zone is mined. The Galena Complex is expected to gain from increased operating capacity and flexibility once the Galena Hoist is commissioned in the second half of 2022 resulting in higher silver production in the fourth quarter and into 2023.”

    Feb 23, 2022 23:52 AM

    (LIO) (LOMLF) Lion One Reports Additional High Grade Intercepts, Completes Phase 1 Infill Drill Program at Tuvatu, Fiji

    23 Feb 2022

    – 7,475m of drilling completed in 42 holes and 955m of resampling of 28 historic drillholes as part of Phase 1 infill program

    Top Intercepts from Latest Infill Drilling Include

    77.11 g/t Au over 3.90m from 30.8-34.7m, inc. 162.22 g/t Au over 1.8m from TUDDH 571
    12.56 g/t Au over 7.80m from 87.1-94.9m, inc. 54.43 g/t Au over 1.2m from TUDDH 572
    16.08 g/t Au over 7.80m from 30.1-37.9m, inc. 62.22 g/t Au over 1.8m from TUDDH 573
    15.10 g/t Au over 3.60m from 121.1-124.7m, inc. 95.06 g/t Au over 0.3m from TUDDH 575

    Feb 23, 2022 23:54 AM

    (BNCH) (BNCHF) Benchmark Drills 118.00 Metres of 2.23 g/t Gold and 25.01 g/t Silver or 2.54 g/t Gold Equivalent near Surface at the Cliff Creek Deposit

    23 Feb 2022

    John Williamson, CEO, commented, “The new Cliff Creek drilling is providing gold and silver from surface to depth and is indicating significant high-grade material below the open pits. Mineralization in Cliffs North area is now drill defined to over 550 metres vertical depth. The new results have potential to pull the pit-shell below 340 metres depth as defined by last year’s pit constrained MRE shell. P&E Engineering has begun work for the updated MRE with all final drill results expected within the next two (2) weeks.”