Dave Erfle – Positive Technicals And Fundamentals As Gold, Silver, And Mining Stocks Continue Surging Higher

Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review the recent strength in gold, silver and the mining stocks, and the positive signals setting up in the precious metals sector.   We start off by reviewing the bullish technicals we’ve seen lately with the monthly close in February being over the $1900 level, and strong follow through today in gold, accompanied by moves higher in the ETFS and the larger producers and royalty companies.  Dave would like to see a monthly/quarterly close above $1975 to really get some more serious momentum building in the sector.


The junior miners have not moved as much as the seniors at this point, but we discuss how this is the case at most major turns higher in the PMs and that it is typically the larger companies that can monetize higher metals prices first that get the bid from generalist and momentum investors as they rotate into the sector and then it eventually trickles down to the juniors where they catch up and start to outperform.  Dave is watching a move above $47 in (GDXJ) to really get more interest and capital flowing into the Junior miners.


We then discuss if this continued move higher is simply due to the recent geopolitical narratives, but Dave unpacks a number of macroeconomic drivers that have also been underpinning the move higher in the gold with the Fed rate hikes right around the corner, to fight inflation market pressures that have only been rising for the better part of a year, as well as continued weakness in the general US equities.  One other bullish factor for the sector has been silver piercing up and closing above the $25 level today,  the outperformance of the silver ETFs (SIL) and (SILJ) over the gold ETFs of (GDX) and (GDXJ), many silver producers up double-digits or high single digits percentages today, the strength of Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), and the improving picture on the gold:silver ratio.

Click here to visit the Junior Miner junky website to learn more about Dave’s newsletter.

    Mar 01, 2022 01:32 PM

    Very nice follow through in Gold today, after closing February above $1900 yesterday, to closing at $1943.80 today.

    Gold is above the 233 day EMA, 144 day EMA, and 55 day EMA and all of those moving averages are now sloping nicely upwards.

    Mar 01, 2022 01:36 PM

    Silver still has a bit more work to do, but it has been gaining traction recently, and it was very nice to see it blast up through $25 today and close at $25.54.

    Silver also closed above it’s key Fibonacci moving averages, but the 55 day EMA and 144 day EMA are still below the 233 day EMA but trending up towards it. More work to do but still constructive.

    Hey at least we aren’t down testing $18.50 – $19 right? Heck, we didn’t even pullback the last few months when so many were discussing breakdowns and corrections in their forecasts.

    Mar 01, 2022 01:45 PM

    Very nice moves in the Silver Producers today… Nice to see the green on the screen.

    Symbol – Silver Producers – Daily Change %

    AGX.V Silver X Mining Corp. +19.15%
    HL Hecla Mining Company +12.67%
    EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +11.40%
    SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +11.29%
    FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +10.54%
    GATO Gatos Silver, Inc. +9.79%
    IPT.V Impact Silver Corp. +9.62%
    ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +9.21%
    PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +8.93%
    AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +8.86%
    EXN Excellon Resources Inc. +8.65%
    AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +8.36%
    GSVR.V Guanajuato Silver Company Ltd. +7.27%
    SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +6.76%
    CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +6.51%
    GPL Great Panther Mining Limited +5.81%
    AYA.TO Aya Gold & Silver Inc. +5.23%
    GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +5.00%
    SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +4.81%
    USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation +2.38%
    HOC.L Hochschild Mining plc +1.03%
    FRES.L Fresnillo plc +0.86%
    BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +0.85%

      Mar 01, 2022 01:50 PM

      Dave also mentioned tracking Wheaton Precious Metals in the editorial up above, so it is nice to point out that WPM is also above it’s key Fibonacci moving averages (233 day EMA, 144 day EMA, and 55 day EMA) on it’s daily chart as well. Looking good!

        Mar 01, 2022 01:28 PM

        Speaking of Wheaton Precious Metals…. Here’s their CEO talking PMs.


        Randy Smallwood – When the ‘nuclear triggers are dusted off’, own this asset for protection

        Kitco News – Mar 1, 2022

        Randy Smallwood, CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals, discusses the best safe haven play in time of extreme geopolitical uncertainty with Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief of Kitco News on the sidelines of the BMO Global Metals and Mining Conference.

        0:00 – Russia/Ukraine
        4:17 – Precious metals
        5:30 – Monetary policy
        6:30 – Gold price outlook
        7:55 – World Gold Council
        10:33 – Silver
        15:10 – PGMs
        16:23 – Best metal to protect against war
        17:51 – Wheat Precious Metals

          Mar 01, 2022 01:59 PM

          Always enjoy Michelle Makori interviews.

      Mar 01, 2022 01:34 PM

      With the number of people on this site that have mentioned being invested in the Silver producers listed above, I’m surprised there was not a lot more hoopla today on the nice moves in the those.

      Same thing with a lot of he gold producers…

        Mar 01, 2022 01:11 PM

        FSM, IPT, SCZ for me yeah
        (Won’t talk about my RSX yet)

          Mar 01, 2022 01:32 PM

          Good picks Terry. I have healthy positions in SCZ and IPT, and a smaller position in FSM myself. Other Silver producers in my portfolio on that list above are HL, EXK, AXU, GSVR, SVM, SILV, CDE, and USAS.

        Mar 02, 2022 02:12 AM

        Hi Ex, it is hard to get excited about any stocks that went up today because you don’t know when the chair will be pulled out again. I’m hopeful and I think the screw has turned, but we need to see a lot more investors turn up to get the party going again. DT

          Mar 02, 2022 02:26 AM

          Fair enough DT. We have seen so many “false breakouts” and failed rallies, and Lucy has pulled the football away from Charlie Brown so many times…. that most people have stopped believing a rally is even possible…. even as it has been unfolding for a number of months. Still, surely some people had nice rips higher in their portfolio today, and it was like a ghost town on many investing sites….

          Can you imagine going back in time and telling people just a few years back – “Hey, in the future, the government will print literally Trillions of dollars in helicopter money, the FED will have $9 Trillion on their balance sheet and will be getting ready to start a rate hiking cycle, inflation will hit 7.5% (the highest in 40 years), the general markets will start weakening, gold will hit $1950ish, and nobody will want to buy gold stocks… Silver will be over $25 and everyone will shake their head at it as concerning…”

          > It’s an absolutely crazy market out there for sure… Haha! (I doubt people in the past would believe the current situation we are seeing play out)

          Today, just to reduce down my risk a smidge, I trimmed back just a little of my Hecla, Fortuna, Silvercrest, and Americas Gold and Silver, just to raise a bit more dry powder. I had added to all of them at lower levels and didn’t mind taking a few chips off the table and moving them to the side. This got the dry powder reserves up to 6% as of today, which seems like enough to have something to fire off, just in case we see a corrective move here in March leading up to or kicking off the rate hiking cycle as many have been expecting.

          Wishing everyone good trading and hoping we see some follow through and continued move higher in the gold and silver stocks, and other commodity stocks, so that we see more companies participate and get a little more upside momentum going.

        Mar 02, 2022 02:33 AM

        I sold my Hoopla Silver last year.

    Mar 01, 2022 01:14 PM

    Greg Weldon – Best Gold Macro Analyst Gives Important Gold & Silver Update

    Jordan Roy-Bryne – The Daily Gold – Feb 28, 2022

    “Greg Weldon, CEO of Weldon Financial is the best when it comes to analyzing Gold and the macro landscape and how it impacts Gold.”

    “He feels there is some risk in the market at current levels (as Gold struggles around the $1900 breakout level), but that the potential upside is huge. He has breakout targets in the $2600s and $2700s.”

    “He is watching Gold against foreign currencies, Gold against the S&P 500 but most important Gold against the Chinese Renminbi, which has been the strongest currency of late. ”

    Mar 01, 2022 01:25 PM

    Pierre Lassonde Predicts $200 Oil And $2,400 Gold In A Month As Putin’s War Drags Out

    Kitco News – Feb 28, 2022

    Mar 01, 2022 01:51 PM

    Good message on the past. I missed the Tech Bubble as I was just sitting on some long term Ira Mutual Funds and working full time.
    However after the bubble crash, I subscribed to the Growth Fund Guide from South Dakota. The Kereport would have loved it as it was very strong precious metals and used to recommend various Mutual Funds like the Permanent Portfolio, Gabelli Gold, American Century, US Funds etc, …a bunch of them.
    When I retired in 2009, the crash had already happened and mutual funds got walked back. I saw that the Mutual Funds were just averaging a bunch of miners, so I decided to go after individual miners.
    I can’t remember which ones I bought at first but they were the Wheatons, Newmont types. Those quickly got boring and I headed off after the Silvercrests, First Majestics, etc until I started chasing the Great Bears, Pure Golds, Vizslas, Emeritas etc.
    Looking back, all my thoughts initially were protecting myself against the failure of the fiat currency. I had the false impression that there were regulators that would oversee the markets and that they would be relatively a level playing field.
    I dabbled in penny stocks a little with beer money and soon learned how corrupt the area was. Upon returning to the general markets but still concentrating in miners that were on the main exchanges, I saw the same corruption I saw in penny stocks. However, I had a broker and began going mainstream like oil limited partnerships, microsoft, At&t, etc..but still buying miners while the broker recommended against them but he could not give a factual basis for dissent. It was policy.
    That led to me breaking away to USAA and buying the miners mentioned above. The more I broke away from the brokerage industry, the more risk I took on as I was doing the research. The more risk I took on, the more volatility.
    However, now all the warnings of the Growth Fund have become reality after over 20 years and corruption is greater than ever.
    It is what it is at this point. Had I known that the general markets were going to be total intervention, that would have been a better route.
    But, I have this basic weakness of being unable to associate with the corrupt or criminal.. at least not knowingly.

      Mar 01, 2022 01:27 PM

      Lakedweller2 – Good thoughts on prior cycles and lessons learned reflecting back on different eras in your investing journey. It is always interesting to get a glimpse at the formative processes behind people’s individuals trials and lessons from Mr. Market (who can at times be a very cruel teacher).

      My journey was very similar to the one Dave Erfle shared, having really cut my teeth on personally investing my own funds in late 1998 but more like 1999 during the tech boom. It seemed so easy until 2000… and then it wasn’t, but I didn’t get hammered too bad because I didn’t have very much capital at that time being fresh out of college at that point and running my own company. My father was running a number of companies and doing marketing deals with a number of “dot com” businesses that had raised tens of millions of dollars with startup ideas, but most of those new companies ended up imploding when the tech bubble popped. I was stunned to see those companies go from heroes to zeroes and lay everyone off and close their doors.

      That was my first foray into how market excesses lead to bubbles and bubbles lead to deleveraging events. I mean I vaguely remember the Black Monday 1987 event, but only because my parents were so distressed about finances and I kept asking why it was called “black” Monday and why everyone was so upset.

      Anyway, I was a safe main stream investor for most of the first decade of the 2000’s, got into insurance, financial planning, banking products, and IRA rollovers in 2008, and told my parents to liquidate a few substantial IRAs and store them in a money market as I thought we were getting frothy. When the markets did crash in the Great Financial Crisis I rolled those funds into variable annuities in 2009 and they made out like bandits through 2016 when they rolled those back into other funds. Also 2006 – 2007 was a terrible financial time for me, where I got over extended, shut down my marketing and company, and after scraping along for a year and going a getting a traditional job, I had to raise funds, and sold my coin collection (and baseball card collection) in 2008.

      Right as I was getting ready to leave I asked what all the hype was about over at the gold/silver bullion booth (the only one with any real traffic and excitement), and wandered over. A guy gave me the typical lecture on why I should be in Precious Metals and gave me a DVD with David Morgan on it…. and the rest is history as they say… I felt like an idiot for selling my my coin collection (especially all those Morgan silver dollars and Mercury dimes), and even though I was still digging out financially, started stacking Silver from 2008-2010.

      In 2010, I had studied the industry from afar for 3 years and decided there was more leverage in mining stocks and started buying them in late 2010, and thought it was pretty easy in 2011. I branched out into Base Metals stocks, Uranium stocks, Lithium stocks, and Rare Earth stocks….. and then the correction came in later 2011 and Fukushima happened, and nations forced China to give up on their export quotas and Rare Earths, and I got schooled by Mr. Market on the next bubble popping.

      After getting smacked in 2011 and 2012 hard, I decided to learn more about technical analysis, and was spending more time at this site… The KE Report, and a few dozen others, and learned from everyone I could. At this point the more I learn and absorb, the more I realize I don’t know, and just try to stay a student of the markets and of the resource and energy sectors. Luckily we have an outlet here like the KER where we can all keep growing, learning, and sharing insights with one another.

      Ever Upward!

        Mar 01, 2022 01:42 PM

        Thanks for your story. I appreciate hearing the different backgrounds that got us to this same place on the Kereport.
        It reminded me of a story about my silver coins back in the 60s. My father collected Indian head pennies and when the silver coins stopped being minted, he started collecting those from his change. He told me to save silver coins from my change.

        I started throwing silver coins into a plastic bucket on my desk. I entered the USAF (had a draft notice) in the late 1960s and was assigned to Basic Training after officer training.
        I continued tossing coins in the bucket or another bucket. A friend that also worked in Basic Training, was getting out of the USAF and was going to open a coin shop and hobby shop with collectible toys.
        I asked him if he wanted my silver coins. He said he did…so I put them all in a strong bag for him to look at and decide if he wanted them. He said he did and asked how much I wanted for them and I said face value. He said they were worth more. I said face value.
        Later … in 2001 I began buying them again. But his hobby shop in California was successful enough for him to purchase a nationally competitive Rolls Royce and 57 T Bird. I figure he bought them with my coins.

          Mar 01, 2022 01:38 PM

          That’s a wild story Lakedweller2, with the silver coins you had saved up and gave to your friend at the coin store possibly being used to fund the purchase of 2 amazing vehicles. Talk about a a store of value…

          Now that you mention it I also had a nice penny collection with a number of Indian Head pennies, some nice steel pennies, and some other rare dated wheat pennies. Some of them did well, and a few were graded, but most of the Indian head and wheat pennies didn’t fetch that much when selling them.

            Mar 02, 2022 02:26 AM

            I have half my father’s Indian Heads and my sister has the other. Neither of us know what they are worth. I don’t think much.

    Mar 01, 2022 01:57 PM

    For anyone out there that missed this news release today, G2 Goldfields Inc. SYL-GTWO .V drills best high grade holes to date including 74.8 g/t au over 6.4 meters in Guyana. The big discoveries in the future will be in remote areas like Africa. DT

      Mar 01, 2022 01:30 PM

      Thanks for sharing that with everyone DT. That is pretty zesty drill intercept from G2 Goldfields.

    Mar 01, 2022 01:39 PM

    Another observation today amidst the high energy prices see in Oil and Nat Gas, is that Uranium miners have also been doing well recently, and today was another solid green day for most companies (although strangely enough not Cameco).

    Here are the vast majority of U stocks showing a strong green day:

    Symbol – Uranium Stocks – Daily Change %

    WUC.CN Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp. +14.13%
    AAZ.V Azincourt Energy Corp. +13.33%
    ISO.V IsoEnergy Ltd. +12.38%
    EU.V enCore Energy Corp. +9.68%
    FUU.V Fission 3.0 Corp. +8.82%
    CVV.V CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. +7.69%
    FOR.V Fortune Bay Corp. +6.78%
    BMN.AX Bannerman Energy Ltd +6.67%
    GXU.V GoviEx Uranium Inc. +6.17%
    AGE.AX Alligator Energy Limited +5.56%
    URG Ur-Energy Inc. +5.41%
    UEX.TO UEX Corporation +5.33%
    TOE.AX Toro Energy Limited +5.26%
    UROY Uranium Royalty Corp. +5.10%
    FIND.V Baselode Energy Corp. +4.94%
    AEE.AX Aura Energy Limited +4.84%
    RDM.AX Red Metal Limited +4.76%
    FCU.TO Fission Uranium Corp. +4.44%
    SYH.V Skyharbour Resources Ltd. +4.41%
    STND.V Standard Uranium Ltd. +4.35%
    ERA.AX Energy Resources of Australia Ltd +4.29%
    EPM.AX Eclipse Metals Limited +4.00%
    BKY.L Berkeley Energia Limited +3.92%
    API.CN Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp. +3.77%
    GLO.TO Global Atomic Corporation +3.42%
    DYL.AX Deep Yellow Limited +3.41%
    BOE.AX Boss Energy Limited +3.23%
    CUR.V Consolidated Uranium Inc. +2.59%
    UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. +2.57%
    U-UN.TO Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund +2.56%
    PEN.AX Peninsula Energy Limited +2.44%
    FSY.TO Forsys Metals Corp. +2.30%
    DNN Denison Mines Corp. +2.01%
    UEC Uranium Energy Corp. +2.01%
    GGG.AX Greenland Minerals Limited +1.79%
    92E.AX 92 Energy Limited +1.69%
    GCL.L Geiger Counter Limited +1.34%
    LOT.AX Lotus Resources Limited +0.66%
    LTBR Lightbridge Corporation +0.24%

    Mar 01, 2022 01:45 PM

    There were a number of nice moves in the gold producers today as well, but the leader in my portfolio today was STGO up almost 23% today, on this positive news.

    (STGO) Steppe Gold Announces Resumption of Gold and Silver Production

    1 Mar 2022

    Mar 02, 2022 02:10 AM

    Crude Oil just keeps trucking higher…. and was just up to $111 (now at $110). Wow!

    It’s unclear what that will do to inflation pressures on consumers and businesses, but it sure isn’t going to help the argument that we’ve been hearing since this same time last year that inflation would just be “transitory.”

    Things were just supposed to be high with inflation for last March, and maybe April… remember…? Then things would level off last summer… and “get back to normal” – like 2%….

    Then a few months later for sure 4-5% was just a freak thing but inflation would start trending down… because the Fed said so right? Then 6.2% CPI reading for October was the clearly the peak…. and surely the high water mark blow off top… then 6.8% CPI reading came in for November… and all the transitory people got very quiet…. then 7% CPI inflation for December (…gulp…)

    Then 7.5% for January… and it finally dawned on many bobbleheads on the main stream financial outlets that the Fed is pretty far behind the curve at this point and hasn’t even started hiking rates yet, so they escalated the tapering of their accommodative bond buying to wrap up by March to get on the stick.

    Now the general markets have seen a great deal of weakness since the end of last year, we have geopolitical theater, and Oil is in triple digits at $110, with most commodities also getting a nice boost higher recently. It will be interesting to see how things play out from here with inflation, and to see how aggressive the Fed is going to be. If they hike too fast though, they risk flirting with tipping things over into a recession, but if they don’t get hiking, then inflation could just keep ripping.

    Remember that “check mate moment” where people wake up to the corner the central banksters have painted themselves into with their monetary policies over the last 12 years…. It may be coming sooner than many realize, and could drag into next year, but at this rate, something may break later this year.

      Mar 02, 2022 02:32 AM

      Canadians got a green carbon tax added to the price at the pump about 6 months ago, now we are seeing taxes on taxes as the price of oil ratchets up. If there is one thing the public understands it’s prices at the pump and they are mad.

      All of these dollars taken out of the wage earners hands decreases the potential buying power of the country. Money is like a set of tenpins as one pin gets hit it knocks over another, and then employees get thrown out of work. These effects end up causing a Depression. DT

        Mar 02, 2022 02:39 AM

        Yep, people have been getting mad when they see the pressures at the gas pump and it eats into their discretionary spending – high energy prices are terrible tax on everyday citizens, but also on businesses.

        What will this do to airfare pricing or “summer driving” as people get ready to take vacations, or cruises? (do people still go on cruises?) What will the freight and delivery prices do at the grocery store, or to ship packages, or for businesses to source materials, or to plastics and lubricants, etc…?

        People’s purchasing power is getting eroded faster and faster by inflation, so maybe that will beget more buying and hording to try and lock in prices before they go up more… which will lead to more inflation… and feed the cycle further. It’s a mess.

        High energy prices like this almost always precede a recession by about a year. The question is, at what point did energy prices get too high $70? $80? $90? $100? $110?

    Mar 02, 2022 02:56 AM

    Anybody still messing with Fosterville South Exploration? FSXLF. Off quite a bit & took a starter down here—

      Mar 02, 2022 02:46 AM

      I took it as a tax loss last year, but am still interested in Fosterville South, and still trying to get Bryan back on the show.

    Mar 02, 2022 02:50 AM

    (VZLA) Vizsla Silver Announces Maiden Resource Estimate For Panuco Silver-Gold Project

    Feb. 28, 2022

    “This maiden resource estimate is a major milestone for Vizsla Silver,” commented Michael Konnert, President and CEO of Vizsla Silver. “It establishes Panuco as an extremely high-quality silver and gold district given its rare combination of size, grade and width, with significant room for growth. Every vein included in the resource estimate remains open for expansion. The grade tonnage curve demonstrates the deposit is relativity insensitive to higher cut-offs and within the Napoleon Vein, a high-grade subzone of 15.1 million ounces grading 702 g/t AgEq, named Gallinero, has been delineated. The resource comes only 18 months from the initial discovery at a total all-in exploration cost of US$0.18 per ounce. Looking ahead, the Company plans to update this maiden resource in the second half of 2022 on the back of its ongoing 120,000 metre infill/discovery-based drill program.”

      Mar 02, 2022 02:40 AM

      I’ve done well with Vizla. They spun off VIZLA Copper Corrp which I shored up for starter position. VCUFF

        Mar 02, 2022 02:54 AM

        Yeah, Vizsla has been one of the better performing Silver explorers, now moving towards a developer since they have their maiden resource estimate out, working on metallurgical work and economic studies as well as continuing to expand through drilling, and they also now own their own mill outright (giving them a huge advantage to fast-track things towards production when the time is right).

          Mar 02, 2022 02:28 AM

          Vizsla got whacked bad today though… Maybe people didn’t like the halt followed by restating the mineral resources. I’m still pretty constructive on it though.

      Mar 02, 2022 02:04 AM

      I ended up selling both the Vizsla Silver and Copper…not that I wanted to do so. The basis was miscomputed from the point of spinout for both stocks by Schwab. I corresponded with them on several occasions until they no longer answered. I wanted everything in writing. The basis on the copper was way too high and the basis on the Silver was adjusted too low after the spinout. But, if you sold both at the same time, it balanced out. I found it easier to dump both and have the proper tax treatment “in sum” than continue to fight with an incorrect computation. I am sure they did it to all their Vizsla customers and it would be an issue to back track and get it right.

    Mar 02, 2022 02:54 AM

    (HIGH) (HGGOF) HighGold Mining Provides Alaska JT Project Update and Reports Final Drill Holes from 2021 Season

    Mar 01, 2022

    Mar 02, 2022 02:11 AM

    Investment Strategy of the Day:
    Wanted to pick up Impact Silver for about the 5th time.
    I looked at the Silver stocks I had and picked the worst performer over the last 6 months and that turned out to be Silver Tiger.
    After selling Silver Tiger and buying Impact, my best performer of the day would have been Silver Tiger. Although Impact positive (less than Silver Tiger), all of my other Silver stocks are negative and my account is 50/50. Can I pick them or what. I feel like I am about to hear a bunch of “or whats”.
    (Individual stock performance is the reverse of yesterday. That makes it a good day, because it is Emerita’s day to go up)

    Mar 02, 2022 02:24 AM

    I forgot it was “Powell Creative Answer Day” with Congress. I am lighting candles.

      Mar 02, 2022 02:52 AM

      “I am lighting candles.” – Haha! That made me chuckle. Yep more Pumpin’ Powell creative answers for sure.

    Mar 02, 2022 02:56 PM

    The low for the HUI today was a precise backtest of the fork resistance that it broke through yesterday. It is now about 2.25% above today’s low.

    Mar 02, 2022 02:00 PM

    Whatever strength the US dollar might be showing, it hasn’t been enough to hurt the technical picture of the Canadian dollar even a little bit. As usual, our rising miners are going to get an additional push from a rising loonie.

    Mar 02, 2022 02:08 PM

    Account up in the morning +4.35%. Last 10 minutes of the day, it went to +.25%. However, the General Markets did wonderfully as Powell speaking overcame all the bad things in the history of the world.

      Mar 02, 2022 02:30 PM

      All my silver stocks were red except for Silver Tiger after I sold it to buy Impact. Those that own Silver Tiger should thank me. Those that own Impact may want to watch it closely.

      Mar 02, 2022 02:57 PM

      The stock market is in the early stages of a new bear market but was/is due for another bounce. It rallied over 8% from daily oversold readings in January and then fell over 10% into a lower low that showed bullish technical divergences. It may (not will) now rally more than we might expect but the big picture is broken. So far, funny money has hidden only a modest amount of the real destruction but I bet that will increase. SPY has fallen about 18% vs GLD but only about 14% vs USD so counterfeited currency hid nearly 30% of the total drop. I expect that discrepancy to grow dramatically in the months/years ahead as most people become poorer and keep worrying about deflation and other silliness (which causes them to hold dollars for “safety”!).
      GDX moved up 48% in 9 weeks versus QQQ and still held up well today but it may soon underperform stocks for perfectly natural/cyclical/technical reasons.

      However, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if our tiny caps do well while the big golds take a break. They lagged for good reason and now they have good reason to catch up. For example, Impact Silver has been basing versus GDX for months and now looks ready to outperform again as it did in 2020 when it quadrupled versus GDX.

    Mar 02, 2022 02:53 PM

    This old pitchfork gave us gold’s low on Jan. 28 as well as the current resistance. The daily chart leaves plenty to be desired for new buying but the weekly looks good enough that I won’t be surprised if gold still powers higher before taking a short term break.

    Gotta love the lack of conviction or outright bearishness that persists around here!

      Mar 02, 2022 02:27 PM

      Added to IPT earlier. Been selling high priced puts on RSX all the way down. When all those RSX get put to me in middle of March I should have a reasonable average price.