Dave Erfle – All Time High Hit On Comex Gold Today – What Is The Short And Longer-Term Outlook?

Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to unpack the all-time high in gold today on the Comex, and the positive longer-term factors setting up in the precious metals sector.   We start off by reviewing the bullish technicals we’ve seen lately with the monthly close in February being over the $1900 level, and the strong weekly close over the $1920 and $1960 confirming the move, and noted that GDX cleared the $35 level on closing basis last week.  Dave would ultimately like to see a quarterly close above $1975 to confirm the breakout on the longer duration Cup & Handle Pattern on the chart, but longer term the technical outlook is very bullish for gold and the gold miners.


While the recent geopolitical tension in Ukraine has definitely moved Gold, Silver, and really all the metals and commodities higher the last few weeks, Dave points out that these sectors were already running higher before the war broke out.  We circled back to the upcoming news on tap with the CPI inflation reading coming out later this week, and the first Fed rate hikes right around the corner this month.   Dave reiterated that at this point with the yield curve flattening, record high inflation, and slowing growth forecasts, that this stagflation environment has the central bank really far behind the curve and in a position unlikely to make much of an impact on inflation with a mere 0.25% rate hike.


We look at how the junior miners have not moved as much as the seniors at this point, but we discuss how this is the case at most major turns higher in the PMs and that it is typically the larger companies that can monetize higher metals prices first that get the bid from generalist and momentum investors.  Dave pointed to the bellwether majors of Newmont and Barrick as short-term overbought, and that royalty company bellwethers Franco Nevada and Royal Gold have had nice moves higher lately, as well as GDX and GDXJ. Dave is watching a weekly close above $47 in GDXJ to really get more interest and capital flowing down into the Junior miners, but believes sector professionals are going to be booking profits in the large caps and moving down into the micro caps as the bull move unfolds.

Click here to visit the Junior Miner junky website to learn more about Dave’s newsletter.

    Mar 08, 2022 08:34 PM

    History in the Making

    Craig Hemke – March 8, 2022

    “To paraphrase Lenin, decades will go by with not much happening and then a decade’s worth of change will happen in a matter of weeks. Well, here we are.”

    “It was just last week that we wrote about COMEX precious metal prices breaking out. But this is more than that. We now stand at the precipice of an epochal change in the pricing structure. The recent action in nickel and other base metals have exposed the fraudulent cracks inherent to the digital derivative and fractional reserve pricing scheme, and the world is taking notice.”

    Mar 08, 2022 08:40 PM

    Peter Krauth – Silver & Gold Launching

    Wall Street Silver – 03/08/2022

    “Peter Krauth joins us to discuss the latest in the Silver & Gold markets. Commodities are launching with the Russia invasion of Ukraine. In addition, stagflation and the economy are looking like the 1970s again. It is the perfect environment for Silver investors.”

      Mar 08, 2022 08:49 PM

      Silver to $100? Silver Outlook in New Bull Market

      The Daily Gold – March 8, 2022

      “In this video, we follow up from our last video in which we called for Gold to hit $4000 in 2024. Can Silver hit $100 in that scenario?”

        Mar 08, 2022 08:17 PM

        Matt Watson: Silver Mine Supply Needs to Double, What’s in Store for Prices?

        Investing News Network – March 7, 2022

        “Industrial demand for silver is increasing, and according to Matt Watson, mine supply will need to rise substantially in the near future in order to meet this growing need.”

        “Watson, who is the founder of Precious Metals Commodity Management, said the electric vehicle, solar photovoltaic and electronics industries, among others, will all require increasing quantities of the white metal in the coming years and decades.”

    Mar 08, 2022 08:44 PM

    As Inflation Heats Up, 64% Of Americans Live Paycheck To Paycheck

    By The Texas Chronicle – March 8, 2022

    “When wages rise at a slower pace than inflation, those paychecks won’t go as far at the grocery store and at the gas pump — two areas of the budget that are getting particularly squeezed.”

    “We are all seeing the cost of everything shooting up,” said Anuj Nayar, LendingClub’s financial health officer. However, paying more for gas and groceries is hitting households particularly hard,” he said.

    “You’ve got to eat, you’ve got to commute; these are not discretionary expenses.”

      Mar 08, 2022 08:46 PM

      Threat of Recession Rapidly Rising, 2022 End Game Looking Like 2008 Warns Bloomberg Intel

      Stansberry Research – Mar 7, 2022

      “Wheat’s price is almost a guarantee for a global recession,” says Mike McGlone, Commodities Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Russia will be very dependent on fossil fuels,” and the rest of the world will not be in the near future, he tells our Daniela Cambone. “The United States is the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas, and that’s going to accelerate,” he asserts. McGlone and Cambone discuss rising metals in rhodium and palladium, and further discuss the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “It’s a matter of time before gold passes the $2,000 mark and never looks back,” says McGlone, “but gold does have major competition from digital assets, including Bitcoin.”

    Mar 08, 2022 08:57 PM

    It is interesting how quiet it is here today considering that Gold went up and tapped it’s all time high on the COMEX today (it still needs to get to $2089 for the 2020 all-time high that happened in overseas Asian trading, but still today was significant).

    > Where are all the bears that have been telling us for so many months that Gold and Silver were both going down the drain and to sell all our PM mining stocks?

    > Where are all the calls for the March double-bottom low from 2021 of $1673 to give way and that there was going to be this big capitulation move?

    > Hell where all the people that claimed that the August 2020 highs in Gold wouldn’t be seen again for a decade if ever again? I thought they repeatedly warned us that the bull market was over?

    > And where are all the people that agreed with the Fed last year at this time and told us repeatedly that Inflation was just going to be “transitory” and was 2-3 months of base effects and supply chain issues?

    …. Those folks are sure awfully quiet since the end of 2021 and rolled into 2022. 😉

    Of course, if investors listened to that nonsense, then they’ve been wrong-footed since last September coming out the Q3 close in gold and GDX, and have missed epic runs in almost every commodity on the planet… take your pick.

    Hopefully the wise investors here at the KER saw through the main-stream financial media babble and illogical narratives, and saw all the contributors here providing the technical and fundamental trend that was setting up last year, and were able to capitalize on the moves we’ve seen in the resource sector for many months now.

    Today, the PMs have erased all doubt of whether we’d get back up to the 2020 highs again, because gold just rang that bell again. The break above the trendline, key moving averages, and prior resistance levels all show definitively that the longer-term cup & handle pattern is on. That is a great thing for all of those invested in the precious metals sector.

    Wishing everyone good trading in these turbulent times.

      Mar 08, 2022 08:57 PM

      > Hell where all the people that claimed that the August 2020 highs in Gold wouldn’t be seen again for a decade if ever again? I thought they repeatedly warned us that the bull market was over?
      I think these are the same people still wearing a mask…… and got jabbed….. 🙂

      Just love that cup…… but, that dang handle was kind of long….. jmo

        Mar 08, 2022 08:23 PM

        Ha! Good one OOTB. Yeah, the Cup & Handle pattern is on in my opinion, and has been since gold broke out over a month ago moving up through several layers of overhead resistance.

        Check out the interview about to go up from technician Christopher Aaron. He’s one of the sharpest technicians I know of, and I’ve been following him for a number of years and he lays out the case that the Cup & Handle has already been triggered and lays out an upside level in Gold to $2880. One would think all this bullish action in Gold would have more people animated, as they sure are on other forums, but I guess people still need more proof we are still in a bull market.

        Let the cup runneth over….–w500/706133ff2199f88fef4d98e3ad115ccaad932a05.jpg

        Mar 08, 2022 08:42 PM

        Hi Jerry … There are those who get it , & those who dont.

          Mar 09, 2022 09:49 AM

          Ditto Irish…….. just saw your message….

          Ditto .Ex……………..

      Mar 08, 2022 08:36 PM

      Hi Shad … As You know i have been shouting , buy silver on this blog , for a long time.

        Mar 08, 2022 08:46 PM

        Absolutely IrishT. You’re consistent and have been spot on my friend.

        I’d expect nothing else from a treasure-hunting scallywag such as yourself, and your comments here are always appreciated sir! 🙂

        Silver is getting geared up for a really fantastic run over the next 2 years and people are going to be kicking themselves for not loading the boat when the gettin’ was good in the white metal.

          Mar 09, 2022 09:50 AM

          IRISH………… IS THE SILVER GURU……………. 🙂

    Mar 08, 2022 08:14 PM

    Lobo Tiggre – Gold price finally hits $2k as whole world feels impact from ‘Iron Curtain’, sanctions

    Mar 7, 2022 – Kitco News

    Gold briefly breached $2,000 an ounce on Monday for the first time since August, 2020. Lobo Tiggre of The Independent Speculator discusses the next price move with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.

    0:00 – Ukraine and gold
    2:15 – Gold and the U.S. dollar
    4:29 – Fear trading
    8:52 – Inflation and gold
    11:30 – Falling real interest rates
    14:10 – “Iron Curtain”
    18:50 – Impact of sanctions
    25:02 – Gold price target

    Mar 08, 2022 08:23 PM

    Gold Makes Run For Record High As Ukraine Concerns And Inflation Risks Mount

    By Brijesh Patel – Reuters – March 8, 2022

    “Gold extended its rally towards a record high on Tuesday, after investors made a beeline for the traditional safe-haven metal on mounting fears around the Russia-Ukraine crisis, with the U.S. and Britain saying they would ban oil from Moscow.”

    “Meanwhile, worries over a palladium supply shortfall due to sanctions on Russia, the top producer of the auto-catalyst metal, kept its price near all-time highs.”

    “The combination of roaring energy prices, grain prices, base metal prices is culminated in dramatic inflationary pressures that continue to be the major underlying support behind gold moves higher,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

      Mar 08, 2022 08:49 PM

      My stocks are doing well and life is very good but it’s hard for people to avoid the sense that there is a big dose of pain coming down the chute with the way things are lining up in this world.

        Mar 08, 2022 08:40 PM

        Agreed Terry. I believe you’re in the same boat with me, and have more of an allocation to some of the Producers though, as well as some exposure to the Energy sector, so that likely gives your portfolio a lift on days like this. Congtrats on the green on the screen.

        We’ve talked over and over again on this blog, and had soooo many guests on the show that pointed out the fact that when the sector turns up that the larger producers almost always move first with the royalty companies, and then the mid-tier producers, and then the smaller producers, and then eventually capital trickles down the food chain and risk curve to the developers and exploration stocks.

        It is always stunning to me that when these rallies take off in the metals, and we see these moves play out, that inevitably there are people whining on different chat forums that their very risky micro-cap junior stocks haven’t moved yet. Huh?

        Sometimes I’ll ask people we interview off-mic or people on or even here on this how much of their portfolio is allocated to the larger or smaller producers, and am stunned to quite often hear — 0%. (WTF?)

        What kind of messed up logic is it, if you know in advance that the producers and royalty companies are going to move first to not have any exposure to them?

        The producers and royalty companies can immediately monetize the gains in the metals, so to not have any exposure to them is nuts. Why not make money in the liquid stocks that are going to get the capital flows first, and then rotate those gains into the smaller junior companies after that initial pop, when they still haven’t really started getting going yet?

        I get that people want the outperformance of the juniors, and so do I, but that requires positioning low and being patient for the move to eventually come. Why people expect the juniors to move immediately when metals prices do is silly, especially with discovery exploration stories that don’t even have defined ounces in the ground yet.

        Meanwhile, while some investors all loaded up on only explorers are crying in their beer, there are plenty of producers that are up 30%-70% in the last 2 months. Heck, even GDX is up over 30% just in the last 5 weeks. Isn’t making money the whole point of investing and speculating?

        Why in the world would people be following this sector for this long and have no exposure to producers? It’s mind boggling… Then these same people always want new tips or the secrets. When the batting order of how the sector moves is reviewed then they act bored and say “Yep, uh-huh I know,” every single time we discuss the capital flows from larger caps eventually down to the smaller caps. Then why in world do they not have any producers?

        It’s not just PMs either – it was the exact same thing with the moves in Copper stocks, Lithium stocks, and Palladium/Platinum stocks. People got frustrated their Jr microcap that hardly anyone is following didn’t run on those moves, while meanwhile the producers went up 300% to 500%. This isn’t rocket science.

        It’s like groundhog’s day in this sector every time we see a new bullish leg get underway. Haha! 🙂


        Now, as for the point you made that you get “the sense that there is a big dose of pain coming down the chute with the way things are lining up in this world.”

        Agreed 100%, but haven’t we all known that and been living that for some time now?

        We’ve been discussing that inflation would be the result of all the insane money printing for the last few years, so when the Fed and their apologists started with the whole – “We’d like to get inflation to 2%” narrative, most of the awakened and wise pointed out, that inflation would be going waaaaay past 2%. The masses didn’t believe that though with their recency bias.

        Then when the Fed and their apologists on the lame stream media stated last year in February and March that inflation would just be “transitory,” anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together laughed at that nonsense, and pointed out inflation would be anything but “transitory” after the insane amounts of helicopter money that was doled out. Clearly it finally dawned on everyone, including the Fed that no it wasn’t “transitory”, and no…. it was not just “base effects” and simply “a few supply chain issues that would get resolved.” That was all hopium on a reopening trade, and Fedbabble to jawbone the markets into submission so people didn’t stampede out of the bond markets.

        We’ve pointed out on this blog for years that the endgame of the global elite was “The Great Reset” (previously known as Agenda 21 and Agenda 2030). People used to say that was tinfoil hat conspiracy theory fodder, until they freakin’ came out and called their meeting last year in Davos “The Great Reset.” The plan all along has been depopulation, a completely tracked (and eventually micro-chipped population) controlled by a Technocratic elite, and less freedom, control over energy consumption, a global digital currency, human no-go zones, human population centers, and friendly government camps for those that resist or don’t go willingly with this amazing “Plan.”

        Then 2 years ago, after trial running a pandemic scenario and war-gaming it for several years in advance, a global pandemic was declared… surprise surprise… For the most part people complied with a massive erosion of their own civil liberties and in surrendering freedom due to 24/7 manufactured fear porn. The government overreach grew more and more extreme, and like a frog boiling in a pot, mist were too asleep to see what they were giving up.

        If anyone pointed out the emperor was wearing no clothes and pointed out a contrary scientific study they were canceled and deplatformed, and everyday citizens started hushing any dissenting opinions. The sad reality is that most people rolled right over and accepted the draconian government overreach; and worse, starting trying to enforce the groupthink on their neighbors…and on friends and family. This all led to the most fractured societies globally we’ve seen since WWII.

        We’ve discussed for years that it was possible Russia may start empire-building again and may try to reclaim prior satellite territories, so is this all really a surprise? People highlighted the government corruption in Ukraine for years, including the current sitting president and his family, along with other politicians, so it it really shocking they care more about some Eastern Europea. countries borders than their own? People have been warning about China moving on the islands in the South China Sea and possibly going after Taiwan for years, so if that happens, will it really be a surprise?

        What did people think would happen to energy prices if a minority of radical environmental lobbyist groups forced banks and pension funds to divest Oil & Nat Gas holdings, and blocked development projects, and demonized extractive industries? The US went from energy independent just 2-3 years ago to crushing the domestic oil and gas sector on purpose with terrible woke green new deal agendas.

        What did countries like Germany think would happen to their energy prices when they got illogically “woke” and decided to divest their Uranium projects in lieu of “green energy”? Talk about clueless… Of course they did a big fat belly flop into the energy pool, and became even more dependent on coal, oil, nat gas, (which is less green BTW) and ended up buying their neighbors in France nuclear energy. (the irony runs thick).

        What did people think would happen to energy prices when the Keystone Pipeline project got killed day #1 of this new administration, and now both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 from Asia to Europe are in peril? The first week in office the new administration pulled oil and gas permits on federal land to placate radical environmentalists. It’s mind numbing that people couldn’t see how this was going to unfold.

        How anyone can be surprised by inflationary forces taking hold, or spiking energy prices, or global unrest, is a puzzle as this was easy to see developing YEARS ago… and has only degraded as more dumb decisions are piled on top prior bad policies.

        People are now not only divided and disheartened (all part of the divide and conquer plan BTW), but they are getting poorer due to inflationary forces and spiking prices, caused by terrible government policies, surrendering to fringe initiatives devoid of any logic, the scaremongering about climate change and the evils of carbon, the insane and terrible central bank policies, and the interruption of true free markets going back to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 (and really long before that to 1971, 1913 on Jekyll Island, and even back much further than that).

        War is of course bad, but so is having the life choked out of all humanity by destruction of purchasing power, freedom of mobility, frredom of expression, and freedom of dissent an popular uprisings. Now people are slowly dying from depression, suicide from isolation, working to death at 2-3 jobs just to make it, losing all the liberties previous generations died to protect, 2 years of house arrests and government lockdowns all over the planet, and many countries going full on authoritarian penal colonies. Yeah, I’d say bad stuff has been coming down the chute and in the chute for a long time now.

        This is the whole reason precious metals advocates have been advising to protect one’s wealth and purchasing power with a true store of value to guard against fiscal malfeasance and global chaos. Some people may feel “bad” that gold is going up when there is pain in the world, but that kind of scenario and things going off the rail is always what sends gold higher.

        Look, the PMs aren’t going to do great if everything is hunky-dory so people need to quit wanting what they don’t want, and deal in the real. Gold is insurance against the house burning down, and it pays off when the fire starts. Nobody said it anyone would feel “warm and fuzzy” when the gold price made it up to new highs, and in fact, most advised just the opposite. If Gold does get up to $3000 or higher in the next year, yes, there will obviously be more pain in store, which is why people should have already been hedging their portfolios with gold as that insurance plan… not to mention having a plan for food, energy, and a rainy day preparation plan.

        If humanity does want to get out of this mess, then policies will need to be changed, central banks will need to be defanged or dismantled, ceasing the intervention and corruption. Free markets will need to be allowed to operate once again, without “too big to fail” crap, and the market will sort things out… but obviously not without some pain and change.

        If people really want clean or green energy, then they are going to need a crapload of raw materials and will need to support mining and energy extraction and realize that in life if you are using something, it is either grown or mined. Period. This is a great opportunity for responsible mining and extractive industries to come back into the limelight and for more generalist to support the very industries that bring to surface the building blocks of the future.

          Mar 09, 2022 09:20 AM

          EX…tra…….BEST ARTICLE …………. I HAVE READ IN A LONG TIME………… thanks for the RANT (lol)

            Mar 09, 2022 09:17 AM

            Thanks OOTB. It started off as such a short response initially, and then developed into a rant-itorial. Haha!

            Mar 09, 2022 09:52 AM

            O^OO,……..I like that… rantitorial……

            Mar 09, 2022 09:01 PM


    Mar 08, 2022 08:32 PM

    Joe six-pack shell shocked, dealing with margin calls. Buy the dip? With what….

      Mar 08, 2022 08:54 PM

      Buzz – Good points on the newly minted retail traders, that opened trading accounts in the last 2 years that were under the false impression that investing was a cakewalk and that tech and growth stocks only go up. They are receiving a very valuable lesson right now from Mr. Market, but he can be a cruel teacher.

      I’ve asked a number of our guests on the show about this very topic, and if so many retail hordes got hit with 40%-70% corrective moves in individual names as the general markets turned over, and worse the ones that got margin calls or were trying to get too cute with options trading, then is it possible that money has just been evaporated now? After that capital goes to money heaven, it is highly unlikely that those traders are going to come in to buy the dip in the general markets with the same gusto they have for the last few years, and this will likely just feed into more of a corrective pattern in the general equities setting in. For those that hedged their portfolios with some exposure to precious metals, energy sector stocks and ETFs, or even those that kept some dry powder reserves, they’ll live to fight another day. Others, may leave the markets for good after this with their tail between their legs…. that’s how it goes when people get excessively greedy and excessively leveraged.

    Mar 08, 2022 08:52 PM

    For anybody has one thin dime, Sprott holding SSRSF volume waking from deep slumber

    Mar 09, 2022 09:00 AM

    1st time GASXF @ $1.15

      Mar 09, 2022 09:35 AM

      Sold 1/2 position IPI @ $74

      Mar 09, 2022 09:01 PM

      Good trading Marty. I considered getting back in NG Energy today, now that it’s pulled back some, but elected to get in CGX Energy (because the market misunderstood the “capped and abandonded” line from their press release which caused a kerfuffle), and Riley Exploration because I think they have a fantastic growth profile. NG Energy is next on my shopping list though (and if Inplay Oil or Hemisphere would ever correct, then I’d jump on those too).