Dave Erfle – Reviewing The Technical Moves And Fundamental Drivers In The Precious Metals Sector

Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review the big corrective move we’ve seen in the precious metals sector as the geopolitical premium came out of the markets since the end of last week.   We start off by reviewing the generally bullish longer-term technical setup despite the recent pullback, and that Dave would ultimately like to see a quarterly close in gold above $1975 to confirm the breakout on the longer duration Cup & Handle Pattern on the chart, which is still unclear here in mid-March whether that will still be possible.


We then pivot over to look at how the mining stocks have not moved to valuations even close to prior cycles when metals prices got to levels we saw just last week, and look at what it will take for them to catch up with the moves in the underlying metals.  Dave is still encouraged by the upward trends on the GDX:GLD and GDXJ:GLD ratio charts, and believes the strength in the mining stocks today, in the face of falling gold and silver prices, is another indicator that the stocks are sniffing out another turn higher in anticipation of the Fed rate hiking cycle set to begin tomorrow.  Next we shift over to how the mining stocks may be correlated recently with the moves in the general us equities markets, and Dave is still expecting that trend to diverge like we saw for most of the year until recently, and feels this further divergence is what will drive new buying into the PM sector.  We wrap up with the unusual news of the movie theater chain company AMC Entertainment (AMC) buying a stake in a gold mining company along with Eric Sprott, and how this may be an early indication of more speculative money starting to follow the mining sector.


Click here to visit the Junior Miner junky website to learn more about Dave’s newsletter.

    Mar 15, 2022 15:59 PM

    The Silver Fab 5
    by @Goldfinger (Ceo Technician) on 15 Mar 2022

    > Silver (monthly chart) and lookback at historic First Majestic Silver chart:

    – Blackrock Silver
    – Dolly Varden Silver
    – Guanajuato Silver
    – Summa Silver
    – Vizsla Silver

      Mar 15, 2022 15:36 PM

      The Silver Screen? AMC Invests In Junior Gold Producer Hycroft

      Neils Christensen – Tuesday March 15, 2022

      “The entertainment company AMC that ruled the meme stocks in 2021 has found a kindred spirit in the mining sector as it announces a hefty stake in the Nevada-based Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (Nasdaq: HYMC). The junior gold and silver producer announced Tuesday that AMC, along with Eric Sprott, bought a 22% stake in the company valued at $56 million.”

        Mar 15, 2022 15:37 PM

        ^^ That has to be the weirdest news of the day in the gold mining sector and was discussed in the interview above with Dave Erfle towards the end.

    Mar 15, 2022 15:13 PM

    Bob Moriarty – Hyperinflation, Market Crash, Silver or Gold

    Proven And Probable – March 12, 2022

    Mar 15, 2022 15:27 PM

    This is a pretty good synopsis of the last 500 years of history regarding reserve currencies. It’s about 45 mins but is well made for any knowledge level and would be a good one to share with friends and family.


    Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

    by Ray Dalio – March 2nd, 2022

    Mar 15, 2022 15:58 PM


    Thanks for responding to ex and having my back in that matter with backing testimony with my lol. Problem is sarcasm I far lost and we are in a cyclical moment that friends and family don’t even get along anymore. Everything is constructed as an attack and backed perceived by there own delusion that they are being attack non the while reading there own post. I’m glad your a smart enough man as I always new and really appreciate, in fact very smart! To understand I was poking ex but having fun and if he had any clue which he obviously doesn’t knows I have held him in high regard something he lacks to do with the hall of famers on this site vs the shite non callers and bloggers from Bs sites sites who change there tune on a daily.

    I’ve always said organic talent is the best and we hold the Best thoroughbreads on the planet here at the ker including you wolf!

    One day Glen will be gone but my calls have been as spot on as complete! opposite to money pincher news letter writers or callers who have been out here and have not a friggin clue stating breakouts to next end of year 😂

    appreciate what you have before it’s gone! Charles, Ann hope your doing well and many others including mr Calgary you guys are a few of many who tune in but voice your opinions and appreciations someday we won’t be here… I constantly thank Matthew his charting is magical albeit sometimes early or late which he states but very helpful. Doc a voice of reason Matthew may choke me but doc brings his own tune. I still value them both as I do myself in high regards.

    To many of you in here who voice your opinions and only want to hear your voice inknow a few if you, thank you but don’t let your ego get the best of you but only getting responses from ex..


      Mar 16, 2022 16:43 AM

      Hang in there Glen……….. keep safe, the world has gone mad……….

    Mar 15, 2022 15:29 PM

    Chinese tech up in HK Wednesday lunch. Have a look at CWEB for a trade.

    Mar 15, 2022 15:59 PM

    (SAND) (SSL) Sandstorm Gold Royalties Provides Asset Update

    March 14, 2022

    Mar 16, 2022 16:02 AM

    Billionaire Supermarket CEO: Buy Now, Food Inflation Will Only Get Much Worse
    John Catsimatidis says food prices could increase 20% by summer

    By Stephanie Giang-Paunon – March 15, 2022

      Mar 16, 2022 16:09 AM

      A 12%-20% increase in food costs as Mr. Catsimatidis outlined above, is more in alignment with where real price inflation figures are hitting the everyday consumer – double digits. That is in stark contrast to the 7.9% CPI number the government uses, but we all know that number is massaged and doesn’t properly reflect the real price increases on good and services people are experiencing.

      If energy prices and food prices stay this elevated on the global stage, then we may start seeing people start to revolt, but it will be a day late and a dollar short…. as the real damage has already been done with the massive amount of money printing the last few years.

        Mar 16, 2022 16:35 AM

        Part of the plan of course…….. starve and kill the population……… NWO…….
        CCP……… CONGRESS COUP PLANNERS……… CDC, WHO, FDA……….. all part of the plan,
        Same crap we been talking about and seeing for years….
        Ukraine, is part of the plan……. weapons, arms dealers going crazy …

          Mar 16, 2022 16:29 AM

          Yes it an unfortunate scenario for humanity to have terrible government deep state policies purposely destabilize the world in order to usher in The Great Reset once there is enough pain and complaining from the plebs.

            Mar 16, 2022 16:41 AM

            Ex, not sure I understand, can you explain the Great Reset and who specifically is conducting this plan for all of us.
            Sounds very nebulous to me.

            Mar 16, 2022 16:21 AM

            Are you being serious Jonsyl or facetious ????……there’s an actual economic reform conference referred to as the great reset from 2020.

            Mar 16, 2022 16:52 AM

            Jonsyl – just do an internet search for the World Economic Forum and The Great Reset and should have plenty of info to digest about what the global elites have planned for everyone.

            If you want more info, they’ve been planning it under different names in the past like Agenda 21 and Agenda 2030, but everything is being funneled into The Great Reset now. It’s a vast topic and not one I feel like expanding on more here on at this time. Spend a few dozen hours looking into it and you’ll have all you need to see the future they have planned for human habitation zones, energy consumption, digital currencies, your digital ID tracking your social credit score and carbon footprint, etc… tons of authoritative control and government overreach in store.

            I’ve posted a number articles and interviews with other thought leaders on this site for years, so it is hardly a new topic for anyone paying attention. It was the theme of the WEF in Davos Switzerland last year. Just do a little homework and you’ll find plenty of content discussing what is planned.

            Mar 16, 2022 16:19 PM

            Ex & Wolf, wasn’t being my usual smartass self. I keep hearing over and over again about the great reset. Will look into it.

    Mar 16, 2022 16:02 AM

    Stagflation Expectations Rise Amid Fears That ‘Inflation Is Permanent,’ BofA Survey Finds

    Dani Romero – Tue, March 15, 2022

    Mar 16, 2022 16:14 AM

    After over a $157 fall in gold since last week’s peak at $2079, it’s been far from a nothing burger, but Gold is still holding up well around the low $1920’s since yesterday afternoon and in overseas trading.

    Currently the yellow metal is trading around $1922, showing the key price level around $1920-$1921 is back in play once again, but this time as support. It would be great to see the week close above $1921, or at least hold above that $1908 target Jordan mentioned 2 days ago in his video (which was briefly tagged in overseas trading yesterday before quickly rallying back up from there).

    Mar 16, 2022 16:55 AM

    Still LONG……… on GOLD…………… I said $1923 in Dec……… wrong by a couple of months…. lol….. 🙂

      Mar 16, 2022 16:32 AM

      Yes indeed. Well now that support has given up the ghost mid-day, so looking for Jordan’s $1908 to hold… w/ gold currently at $1910. I’m still constructive that gold could bounce coming out of the Fedbabble meeting today/tomorrow and end the week above $1921.

    Mar 16, 2022 16:18 AM

    Final day of Parasite Conference. All stand and waive Goodbye!

    Mar 16, 2022 16:03 AM

    It’s eerie out there, the buyers aren’t showing up, maybe another shoe that can’t be foreseen will drop shortly. What could possibly happen next, is Russia going to back the ruble with gold, that would start a forest fire in the gold market. What would or could The Fed do? DT

    Mar 16, 2022 16:35 AM

    gold latest pop up occurred with Russian buildup and invasion with threats of escalation including nuclear. It’s ending when the beginnings of the end of this story. Let’s see if there is an attempted recovery of sorts with the perpetual drum beat of the gold promoters before we once again sink into the droldrums. Meanwhile for me right now, remaining flat and out from Mar 8 and looking for a possible scalp.
    Meanwhile spx did the unthinkable according to many and is off the mat, sadly without me in spite of all best intentions. Hopefully some pullback to permit another entry opportunity.

      Mar 16, 2022 16:22 PM

      You’re making things up. No one would call this bounce in the stock market unthinkable. SPY bounced almost 9% in January and more than 7% in February yet you’re celebrating a 4% bounce? Sure, it could turn into a bigger bounce since one is overdue but big picture, the sector is broken.

      You don’t know charts like you think you do if you think Russia is/was the reason for gold’s rise. Did it rise 80% in 2 years (’18-’20) because the Russian’s were coming? lol

        Mar 16, 2022 16:27 PM

        oh please Matt.
        Nobody saying spx made the low and is going to the moon.
        Actually if that were to be the case I’d love a spy short opportunity. Right now I regret not taking advantage of the opposite considering all the bad press its received.

          Mar 16, 2022 16:39 PM

          I will gladly disappear if asked to by the owner of the site but it’s a funny request coming from one who consistently contributes nothing of value and whines incessantly.

            Mar 16, 2022 16:21 PM

            Hi Matthew – I’m only a meager co-host here, but I know the owner of the site and feel pretty confident that he likes having you around and appreciates your posts here. Personally I sure appreciate the work you share with everyone here on the blog, and know others feel the same way.

            It would be great to have more people contributing like you have for over a decade, in the spirit of sharing your work and insights with others and offering a unique perspective on things.

            Mar 16, 2022 16:37 PM

            Thanks Ex.

            Mar 16, 2022 16:58 PM

            I agree Ex, thanks Matthew for the charts, so many I can’t keep up, haha!;-)

        Mar 16, 2022 16:52 PM

        Ex, snide comments can only flow one way as monitored by the co-host. Matt, you now have free reign to promote yourself.

          Mar 16, 2022 16:02 PM

          That’s a bizarre assessment since my tone toward you has only been a reflection of yours toward me. The same goes for blazesb. He made our differences personal about two years ago so I adapted to his preference.

          Mar 16, 2022 16:11 PM

          Jonsyl there have been plenty of snide comments all around from many posters here lately.

          All I said was that we valued Matthew’s contributions here. He posts more relevant content to investing with his charts here than most do, and that is indisputable after over a dozen years of him being active on this site.

          I’m not condoning or encouraging more personal attacks or arguing on here from any users, so don’t try to twist what I said into something I didn’t say.

    Mar 16, 2022 16:40 AM

    Terry Huebert
    17 hours ago
    Chinese tech up in HK Wednesday lunch. Have a look at CWEB for a trade.

    Terry hats off to this call, if only for a signigicant bounce.

    Mar 16, 2022 16:52 AM

    I have been passing the word to those I know, to not ask any questions of Powell. Let him ramble, say meaningless things, applaud and leave quickly. If light switch at door, turn it off.

    Mar 16, 2022 16:22 AM

    The new normal: .50

      Mar 16, 2022 16:46 AM

      The “D” word now: Deflation

        Mar 16, 2022 16:57 PM

        You have a better chance of being abducted by bigfoot.

          Mar 16, 2022 16:25 PM

          Speaking of Bigfoot… I’m out in Sasquatch areas quite often, and even stop by for coffee and treats sometimes at the place where they shot scenes for Harry and the Hendersons, so actually I have the greatest risk of being abducted by Bigfoot, but I get the point you were making to BDC about “deflation” being unlikely in the near-term.

            Mar 16, 2022 16:36 PM

            “Unlikely” is a huge understatement. Getting stomped by a wooly mammoth is more likely.

            Mar 16, 2022 16:49 PM

            yeah…. that sounds pretty improbable then. 🙂

            Mar 16, 2022 16:12 PM

            Matthew, I read read it wrong. If serious they really would have gone .50 or even more. But staying away from forests anyway — just in case!

            Mar 16, 2022 16:41 PM

            I’m saying they are serious about debasing the currency regardless of the nominal interest rate. There will be no second coming of Paul Volcker and even his actions 40 years ago are greatly overstated. The Fed follows the market while trying to get everyone to believe that it leads (controls) the market.

            Gold went up roughly 25 fold in the 1970s and had become objectively, historically very expensive by the time it spiked in January 1980 so the bull market was ready to end naturally. It was a bubble looking for a pin and the Hunt brothers charade was just the narrative and cover they needed to pull the rug out from under the market. Gold only had to reach about $473 in January 1980 to de facto “back” the entire US monetary base yet it went over $850 that month and nearly reached parity with the Dow. It was DONE and therefore so were interest rates. Today, that $473 is almost $8,600 and the overshoot to $850+ is now $15,000+ but what will those amounts be by the time gold is near the end of its run?

            P.s. – It’s funny/strange how so many people carried a negative view of the Hunts ever since but thought nothing of their bankster masters flipping the game board in the air like a bunch of 5 year-olds.

    Mar 16, 2022 16:41 AM

    gold sell off getting ridiculous. in with long dated miner calls, should be some kind of rebound in here to take some leverage on.

      Mar 16, 2022 16:59 AM

      I got some FSM LEAP calls a while back. Those are in the money now and going much higher, when Seguela starts producing.

    Mar 16, 2022 16:49 PM

    SILJ closed higher for the last 6 weeks straight and just might do so for a 7th. It’s up another 20 cents in after hours trading.

      Mar 16, 2022 16:42 PM

      Tried to sell some ATM SILJ puts today, slightly higher than the bid but no buyers.

    Mar 16, 2022 16:54 PM

    Oil is at fork support that has held for two sessions but I doubt it will hold for much longer.

    Mar 16, 2022 16:18 PM

    GDX:SPY filled its March 4th gap and backtested fork support…

    Even if we just saw the low for that ratio (which is far from guaranteed), it will probably still need to chop around for awhile before it can make a new high.