Joel Elconin – Moves In Commodities Are Saying That The Russia/Ukraine War Is Over, Putin Says It Is Not…
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show and Editor of the PreMarket Prep website joins us to make sense of the continued volatility in the markets. We start on the commodity front where some of the recent spikes have been sold off to levels close to where they were when the war started. This is telling us that the market thinks the war is over, however comments today by Putin say the otherwise. We tie the volatility to the the Fed meeting tomorrow and what the Fed is going to do.
A comment there, FWIW: “The Saudis have invited president Xi to the kingdom… ostensibly to discuss the acceptance of the Yuan for oil.”
The Saudis are like everyone else, Looking Out For Number 1. What a failed policy, at some point The Saudis will be looking out for number one and The World will have changed and they can drink their oil if there is any left. LOL! DT
If John Williams of Shadow Stats is right and the CPI is more like 15% and negative real rates are lower than reported, how meaningful is .25 or .50 or for that matter .400 raise in the scheme of things. I am sure the algos will tell us what is meaningful … and that makes investing difficult.
Agreed Lakedweller2. Anyone shopping for goods and services in the real world knows inflation is spiking prices much higher than 7.9% CPI readings and most areas of life from food to rent/housing to household supplies are up double digits in pricing increases year over year. The consumer getting squeezed by eroding purchasing power, is just more evidence that it really doesn’t matter if the US dollar is strong versus other equally devolving fiat currencies, it really comes down to how is one’s purchasing power relative to real money (gold) and to everything else they are buying with these “strong” dollars.
Without Chinese goods, prices for whatever necessities they produce will skyrocket, leaving much less money for non-essentials, no matter the sources.
Yep. If we see things escalate with more tarrifs on China from the supply chains and trading partnerships developing, then that would get real ugly for so many items and components that are inputs in other products that businesses and everyday people depend on from China
American plumbing hardware producers may thrive. It’s now rare to find fixtures not manufactured in China. Replacement part makers come to mind.
Good points BDC on plumbing fixtures and replacement parts, however, if industries shift to more domestic manufacturing then the costs will still be going up for consumers.
DANG……….. Platinum ……… $985………….. down $44…………. BUY of a lifetime……….. me think…
I’ll wait till it hits $600 again…. lol…… 🙂
Yeah, all the commodities took it in pants today, with big moves down across the board in the metals, oil, coffee, soybeans, cocoa, you name it… Yes, Platinum selling down another 5.7% just makes it that much more attractive.
Shouldn’t they be halting trading and cancelling all the trades of the last 2 days……. Oh wait there isn’t a Chinese conglomerate on the wrong side of the trade. All good. Just carry on.
Haha! Good one Wolfster! 🙂
Yeah, the only thing that seems to bother them is when commodities are rising too fast, and squeezing larger short positions…. but if they crash, then that is fine. Interesting dichotomy eh?
Speaking of which, I posted the news on yesterday’s blog that supposedly the Nickel market is going to start trading again tomorrow, so that will be interesting to see it unwind as well. Love these free and fair markets.
Commodities are a Sell…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p91576622498&a=1123439808
Commodities are a Sell versus gold…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p75407964690&a=1123440412
CRB vs Silver filled a big gap from 2019 and has probably topped. Now it can drop unhindered by that unfinished business.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21518819555&a=1125979479
Thanks for posting that chart Matthew, and with that gap filled, yes, Silver should start to shine and outperform the big moves in the CRB commodities index, and has lots of room to run and make up some ground on oil, nat gas, and the other industrial metals for sure. I’m anticipating a pretty good next 2 years for Silver and, of course, the silver miners.
Will the Fed remain with .25 — or is .50 a possibility?
Related: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dK6iDnhGiA
“China is moving quicker and quicker towards de-Dollarization.”