Jordan Roy-Byrne – Technical Price Targets To Watch In The Precious Metals
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review support levels in the precious metals sector after we’ve seen a short-term corrective pullback, in the context of the larger bull market pattern still well underway. We start off discussing the pullback in gold and that Jordan’s earlier target of $1908 came into play, right above key $1900 support, but that he is still watching to see if gold can get up and hold above $1920. Jordan breaks down 2 prior periods where gold corrected, then approached all-time highs, and then had corrective moves followed by even larger rallies. Jordan unpacks where these moves project a potential pullback to the high $1800s, but in the context of that bullish medium-term bounce out of that move, and also in conjunction with the longer-term cup and handle pattern that is also still playing out.
Next we moved over to silver and that while the technical outlook isn’t quite as bullish as gold, and it has more overhead resistance levels to clear at $28-$30, $35-$37, and $50, that Jordan still believes it will eventually start to play catchup to the moves in gold, once the yellow metal is above $2100. We wrap up by taking a look at how the mining stocks via GDX and GDXJ, that have generally held onto more of their gains and have better technical setups than the metals; which is a constructive development in the sector.
Click here to visit The Daily Gold website and keep up to date on Jordan’s technical outlook.
Comparing Gold & Silver Long-Term Resistance Levels
Jordan Roy-Bryne CMT, MFTA – March 15, 2022
https://thedailygold.com/video-comparing-gold-silver-long-term-resistance-levels/
I’ve not listened to the Fed meeting yet, and been tied up with calls and work all day, but figure we’ll be hearing about it for the next 2 weeks… so, I don’t know the answer to these 4 questions yet. If anyone else listened to Pumpin’ Powell and has more insights, then please share them.
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Four Things To Watch At Conclusion Of Fed Meeting
By Greg Robb – MarketWatch – March 16, 2022
– How many hikes will the Fed pencil in?
– What will Powell say about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war?
– What will message be about inflation?
– Will Fed give details about plans to shrink its balance sheet?
Fed Lifts Rates for First Time in Three Years as Fight Against Inflation Begins
Yasin Ebrahim – Investing.com – March 16, 2022
“The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the first time in more than three years and signaled seven rate hikes for this year to bring inflation under control.”
“The Fed is now forecasting its benchmark rate to rise to 1.9% in 2022, well above the 0.9% forecast in December, pointing to about seven 0.25% rate hikes in total for this year, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections showed.”
Gold Bugs Now: A Joyous Mood
Stewart Thomson – Mar 15, 2022
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_031522.html
Yeppee…………… $1923…… call not to bad…. ….. lol……..
that should last about ….humm….. till Freaky Friday……
Wild West show…….. Ukraine … Inflation ….. humm…..
Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (3/15/2022)
Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Australia Unveils $360M In Critical Minerals Funding To Offset China Dominance
Reuters – March 16, 2022
“A meeting of the Quad group leaders of Australia, the United States, Japan, and India agreed in Washington in September to improve supply chain security for rare earth.”
“China currently dominates around 70 to 80 percent of global critical minerals production and continues to consolidate its hold over these supply chains. This initiative is designed to address that dominance,” said Angus Taylor, minister for industry, energy and emissions reduction.
Chinese tech index etf(3032:HK) opens up 14% Thursday morning. Zijin Mining(2899:HK) only up about 4%
The Federal Reserve policy of raising rates 1/4 a point is not a new policy, it is an old policy. They realize that inflation might be a menace, but the fears that the public is feeling at the check out and the pumps is being dissipated with a slow raising of the rates. The new policy like the old policy is simply “Do not rock the boat”.
In order to defeat inflation you must defeat speculation. They are telling the speculators that the gateway to fortune still stands wide open. Speculation won’t be curbed, it and inflation will keep running rampant because The Federal Reserve is beaten. DT
Speculators are so all in on the everything bubble that they are ready to pay these measly 1/4 rate increases, just to keep prices still climbing. DT
Speculators gonna speculate…
Isn’t that speculation …
yep… it’s all a speculation. 🙂 Good one Lakedweller2!
Reversal and bull hammer for SLV today after retracing 50% of its 22 day 22% move…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55219738469&a=1119463452
Were the Fed even remotely serious about fighting inflation, they would’ve done all 7 rate hikes at once. They’ve gone a decade trying to create inflation. Success!!!!
+1
Plus 3………… GOT GOLD…………. lol……….
+ at least 400 quadrillion.
CWEB up 80% yesterday. Several years of inflation protection in one day.
Long Term 10 Year T-Note Rates : How High? : FOMC Rate Hikes Begin
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/03/long-term-10-year-t-note-rates.html
I was disappointed as I was hoping the Fed would announce they were going to hold .25 of their scheduled meetings this year but they talked interest rates instead.
Hey Matthew. Just to be sure where you’re at right now based on what I’ve read from your posts and charts….right now you are bullish on the PM’s but not the commodities??? Always appreciate your input. Thanks
In general, yes. As you can see on the following chart, GDX is at/near an important low (more than short term) versus the CRB:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3A%24CRB&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p43846891941
GDX vs GNX (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) looks similar as commodities have outperformed for almost 100 weeks.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3A%24GNX&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p63375218363&a=1126841347
Even if commodities manage to hold up better than I expect in dollars, the odds favor the pm miners greatly outperforming.
This CRB chart is not live but will update later. You can see how weekly overbought it had become as its RSI reached almost 90. From a risk-reward perspective, the gold-silver space is easily much more appealing.
Relative exceptions might be uranium and lithium since they’ve corrected for awhile already and show possibilities. However, they still show the potential for more downside and/or the potential to chop sideways for months before making new highs. Oil might have a another shot higher left in it but again, the risk-reward of the gold-silver stocks simply looks much better.
URA is way above its January low just like GDX but unlike GDX, it shows much more downside risk.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URA&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p22574995040&a=1063105266
Thanks as always Matthew…..been buying more impact lately and love the bang I’m getting from the orezone warrants.
Sugar has also already corrected for awhile and is trying to get going again:
CANE
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CANE&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p50785191220&a=1126862809
To be clear, I am very bullish commodities longer term. The sector just needs a break (again, generally) especially when compared with the gold and silver stocks.
The CRB versus the S&P500 would have to rise 5,500% from here just to reach its 1974 high. I am absolutely not predicting that will happen but I do believe that commodities will blow away conventional stocks for many years to come (with corrections along the way, of course). Those who scoff at $200 – $300 oil are foolish. We already had the equivalent to $300+ oil in 2005 and 2008 when adjusted for inflation.
$300 oil would do wonders for my SU, CVX, XOM, and DVN, unless Biden slaps an excess profits tax on oil like Jimmy Carter.
Some up …some down…
Took 7 minutes to do morning hit on Emerita….
Emerita is in process of contracting with new Market Maker.
PMs, metals and oils in green.
Short squeeze last Thursday was very effective. They have systematically walk it back every day taking back 36% + gain. (Positive news was last Thursday)
Group Ten back to .31 after almost starting to move out of range. They evidently have too much potential.
Essential Metals in Aus was up +97% earlier in week. Next day took gain back. Today up +14%. Lithium drill results triggered first gain.
Bitterroot showing + 14% start today bringing my shares to $1.05 gain.
Seems like a day trade possibility with Emerita. Sells off in first 30 minutes and usually rallies back somewhat.
Yes, you would think so except for the squeeze last Thursday. That was the biggest single day move in my account dollar wise in history. However, the walk back I have seen only when I breathe.
wallstreetonparade.com
There is a good article there among many, that ties JP Morgan to the Nickel LME fiasco. Instead of the London Whale, this time it is the Chinese Whale.
I guess it is something to discuss over tea …
Here’s another item to ponder. Ceo.ca has an an optional Wiki area under “profile”, where members of any one site can post things they want to store. In Emerita’s case, they elected to track share ownership. It was voluntary and probably had some errors, but in general it showed the distribution between individuals, institutions, insiders, etc.
So, somebody deletes it because they can. Was it someone who got squeezed? Was it a troll?
Just shows how unprincipled and weak parts of society have become.
Entertaining Thought:
80% of my stocks now “”Green” … up $497
Spoke too quick: Up date: 80% of stocks “Green”: Down $3000
Before everyone says shut up, going to do something else today.
Looks like the trash Juniors are starting their thing.
+ 5.19% for day. Thanks Matthew for the confirmation information. Will see how the week ends. I am mostly sitting at this point.
Today’s gaps brought plenty of extra selling and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get filled/partially filled (i.e., dealt with) tomorrow. I’m hoping they do rather than later and from a higher price. It would be great if the miners gap down into their up-gaps tomorrow and then take off but I’d settle for gap fills and then not falling apart.
SILJ gapped 1.5% today so I’d like to see at least two-thirds of it filled.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p25247625325&a=968712905
I didn’t have too many gaps in the individual stocks. They kind of wandered around all day and then found the exit to the pen and jammed it up … then got out one by one and let Emerita have the big finish.
Yes, luckily our juniors can move very differently that the stuff that fills the ETFs.
GDX needs confirmation from GDX vs GLD:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p30610651557&a=1123399783
Priced in dollars, GDX is all set:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p43329439802&a=1126907405
gold snaps back as do my gold silver stocks BTG for one TRUMP—PUTIN —JOSH HOLLY are birds of a feather they flock together . Anyone who prasied Putin in the past is not qualified to sit in congress or run for office.
If you have an hour (in between basketball) this is a good listen and discussion where we’re headed financially: Don Durrett on Palisades. https://palisadesradio.ca/
Thanks for that post Silverdollar. It’s always good to get Don D’s thoughts on the PM sector and markes.
Charles Nenner knows the war has nothing to do with what’s happening in the markets…
https://www.financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2022/03/250-oil-the-dow-is-dead-long-live-commodities-charles-nenner/
Thanks for the Nenner post……… always some great info from Nenner…………. IMO
I only know him from these occasional interviews but it’s clear he knows a lot a lot of useful stuff about cycles.
DItto…….. on his knowledge of cycles……… been following him for years……. never subscribed , but, always found his info informative…….
BOIL is simmering harder lately and will soon be boiling…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOIL&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p56171134251&a=1065572127
Silver backtested a Fibonacci fan line, a fork and a speed line and finished above all three today. That doesn’t mean the backtesting is necessarily over but it was a show of some strength. It looks like it wants to go higher before taking the break that many expect to happen now.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p22820527979&a=1127075223
Freaky Friday…………… again………. should be interesting today…..
GOT GOLD……..GOTS……… KISS………… 🙂
Gold Has Done This Only Twice
Jordan Roy-Bryne CMT, MFTA – March 14, 2022
https://thedailygold.com/gold-has-done-this-only-twice/