Craig Hemke – This Week In Precious Metals, Why The Weakness At The End Of The Month?

April 22, 2022

Criag Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report joins me to breakdown the weakness in precious metals this week. On Tuesday the metals and underlying stocks dropped but yesterday, Thursday, was noteworthy day to the downside as silver and gold stocks were hit hard. Interestingly base metals and energy was flat to up.




Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:52 AM

    Price Quality:
    All MaxSat Level 5 : Most Possible.
    Bottom More Likely Monday,
    But Could Be Today.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:15 AM

      Possible Ukraine truce talks?

    Apr 22, 2022 22:04 AM

    Bullish breakout but in a bad way… G/S ratio.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:25 AM

      For me the more important level is 82-83 on the GSR. If that breaks, the inverse H&S projects to around 105.

      At this point, does anyone really think that isn’t an inevitability with all the Fed ghouls jawboning every day about rate hikes and QT? Heck, maybe that move in the GSR will correspond to some sort of crash in the markets.

      In any event, anyone who is long mostly big cap gold miners has little to complain about, even now, as they were massively overbought. The problem is the small caps and juniors, especially in silver, appear to be getting punished even worse despite not coming close to the technical performance of the big gold miners, which have a lot of breathing room, technically speaking.

      At this point, short of the Fed completely capitulating (and we all know it is way way too early for that) I can’t see silver getting through $26. I have no idea about the lower bound because silver tends to shock us, but one would hope $21-22 would provide some sort of support.

      I am getting absolutely creamed in AXU, which is making a new 52 week low now. Who knows where the carnage ends in that one. Pick a number between $1.20 and $0 I guess.

        Apr 22, 2022 22:33 AM

        I agree that the G/S ratio will hit 83 at 1900ish gold would put silver in the high $22s, sell in May always comes early for the Venture Index crap, I may invest more in the tech stock rebound over the summer before a major fall crash, all in my humble opinion. Simply put, the monetary value of the pms is lost to the fed’s bafflegab… as a joke I’m going to go to a coin dealer today in Calgary and see what they have and for how much.

          Apr 22, 2022 22:30 AM

          Our Sell
          Canadian $

          1oz Gold Bar .9999 RECOGNIZED RCM Item # 11881 ; 1-24 Quantity

          1oz Gold Bar .9999 RECOGNIZED RCM Item # 11881 ; Quantities of 25+

          RCM 1 Gram MapleGram Coins .9999 Item # 15935 32 Coins (Just over 1oz)

          RCM 1 Gram MapleGram Coins .9999 Item # 15934 25-Coin Pack

          RCM 1 Gram MapleGram Coins .9999 Item # 14104 SINGLE COIn

          Older Date/No DNA 1oz RCM Gold Maple Leaf .9999
          Item # 11876 10+

          1oz RCM Gold Maple Leaf .9999 Item # 11876 Less than 25

          1oz RCM Gold Maple Leaf .9999 Item # 11876 25 – 99

          1oz RCM Gold Maple Leaf .9999 Item # 11876 100+ 2550.50
          1/2oz RCM Gold Maple Leaf .9999 Item # 11877 1346.25
          1/4oz RCM Gold Maple Leaf .9999 Item # 11878 690.00
          1/10oz RCM Gold Maple Leaf .9999 Item # 11879 284.50

          lots to buy.

            Apr 22, 2022 22:03 PM

            Thanks, I wont be buying any but saved me a trip, haha.

        Apr 22, 2022 22:49 PM

        Green, I started to acquire a small position in AXU today and will cost average in over the next few weeks as it moves lower.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:20 AM

    NFGC — Last tranche , stink bid, would you believe $6.66- TOTALLY COOL!

    Apr 22, 2022 22:35 AM

    As long as the BoJ, ECB and Fed coordinate their monetary policies, they can manipulate exchange rates any way they want. In the past, when commodities were in danger of breaking out, the BoJ would step in to make sure that they were much easier than the Fed. The ECB will also do this, but less extremely than the BoJ.

    Well currently the BoJ and the Fed are at polar opposites, with the BoJ doubling down on yield curve control (promising to make unlimited bond purchases if need be) while the Fed is tightening and starting QT.

    Over the last 30 years, the directionality of the USDJPY has been highly correlated with the directionality of commodities. Well, USDJPY just broke the neckline of a massive 20 year inverse H&S that projects to about 175! If that plays out, the USD is headed much higher, which is all likelihood will put the kabash on commodities. The commodity market doesn’t seem to care about the absolute quantity of global currency units, at least historically. All it seems to care about is relative performance vis-a-vis USDJPY and DXY

    Apr 22, 2022 22:25 AM

    The drop in silver vs crb since 2020 has been nothing short of stunning. It looks programmed to be honest, since there hasn’t even been a technically convincing bounce in almost 2 years. Sorry, but no natural market trades like that.

    And from a fundamental standpoint, does that type of shocking underperformance make any sense whatsoever? It is getting close to the 2018 low in that ratio. Basically, any notion that silver would benefit from inflation more than any other non-monetary commodity has been destroyed. And for those that say that the CRB is weighted towards oil, the same can be said for silver vs GCC (GCC is an unweighted commodity index). Maybe silver is near a major inflection point vs the rest of the commodity complex. Even if a near term low is found, the selling was so relentless and damaging that the conventional wisdom would suggest the need for consolidation in a lower range for potentially YEARS vs the rest of the complex–i.e., a V-bottom would be fairly unusual.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:50 AM

    I will be a seller if there is a recovery at all in the junior miners, I will be done with this sector and rely on Vector Vest or another program as I am too stupid of an investor on my own. I have lost all my earlier gains but that’s life. Good luck to all, it has been a waste of time but thanks for all the contributions.

    PS… As far as an explosive rally coming is concerned, I doubt it. Like Jeff Christian says, the silver market is well supplied.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:55 PM

      Yes, I’m sure plenty of silver is being sold by long time accumulators who found themselves suddenly in need thanks to the lockdowns and mandates of the psycho tyrants. They’ve caused immense damage to countless lives.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:17 AM

    Green, most of the junk junior golds, in particular explorers outpacing gold to the downside again and again with every higher consolidation level for gold in past couple years. In spite of all the hype by kitco pump and dump promoters. Select majors although hit badly at least holding some of their gains as we dip to obvious 1900 consolidation low. Let’s see what happens next week, no need for a rush to buy indicated.
    Those with lots of dry powder dumping the high end of consolidation have another gambling opportunity. Those who marginally increased cash levels with upper end of the Ukraine rally higher by staying 90% invested by trimming gains by a bits and pieces, or worse doubling down, will have a tough time making up for this drawdown with the vast majority of holdings dropping like a stone. Unless of course we finally have a nirvana moment. Good Luck.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:24 AM

    I am at a loss for words concerning the Metals Market…that I can publicly express.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:32 AM

      I liken it to driving down a freeway throwing money out the front window to see how much flies back into the rear window, then scoop up what’s left when you get home… done fer the day!;-)

        Apr 22, 2022 22:11 PM

        I am not sure whether I am done or not when looking at all the factors that say this is fundamentally the best time for metals in the last 20 years. The issue is that it is the most corrupt time in the last 20 years due to the Fed breaking the markets through intervention. This was going to be my swan song but I have a 40% decline since the first of the year for no reason other than intervention. I am old enough to remember when fundamentals and research meant something but that was before computers and deregulation. Being a retired prosecutor, I elected the route of the metals as thinking I knew the criminals were falsely pumping the General Markets and suppressing the metals against all fundamental reasons. That didn’t work as the more Politicians got bought by Special Interests, the less Regulation was conducted leaving no organization at the Federal Level to stop corruption. It bled into all markets.
        I falsely believed that corruption would destroy the banks and corporate power leading the Politicians to be forced to save the Republic. Instead, they tried to take down the Republic in favor of corruption.
        So I continue to play the metals as there is no “level playing field”, there are no Regulators, there are no Politicians in sufficient numbers to fend off those that are bought and there is no ground swell of interest in moral and ethical market places. Fiduciary Duty is a fiction and theft is the way of the American Dream . If you aren’t corrupt, you aren’t on the team.

          Apr 22, 2022 22:18 PM

          It will only get worse as Russia and China bend towards gold backed currencies, in the name of ‘The war effort’ they will grant themselves more power to suppress the price.

            Apr 22, 2022 22:23 PM

            While killing as many unimportant people as they can so a few can prosper. Great world. Some got shortchanged at birth when it came to the assembly line assigning human thoughts and feelings. They got overdosed with self interest and mental illness.

          Apr 22, 2022 22:30 PM

          Lake, it’s all about whether we continue the move to an autocracy as touted by political Trump wantabees and those in fear of their standing watching in silence from the sidelines.
          We fight like hell, at times for misguided reasons as with Iraq, for some form of democracy however imperfect as it always has been and continue to be, for a an strong fistest autocrat. Who will make us strong and secure. As the masses have been convinced by force and propoganda for generations in China, Russia and the like.
          The so called sheeple, may just get what they wish for. And at the same time watch in horror the result of autocratic rule day after day with the depravity of such rule in the Ukraine.
          Boggles the mind how stupid the majority can be until it’s too late shown with the history of Germany and Japan in the not too distant past.

            Apr 22, 2022 22:44 PM

            I don’t know…seems the Ukrainians don’t even know they are under autocratic rule. Maybe should take a pole of those still alive to see what they think of the dead people that are being saved from autocracy and their local fire marshalls as to who is blowing away all the buildings in the name of world peace. Preemptive strikes are not known to be a good thing against a country you required to disarm of nuclear weapons so they can’t defend their lives in the name of freedom from oppression. Better Red than Dead they always used to say. Whatever happened to the Geneva Convention. I guess that was a silly old set of rules to protect worthless civilians.

          Apr 22, 2022 22:57 PM

          Lakedweller, 40% hit this year, discouraging. I’m only down about 15%, mostly my own fault for getting tangled up in RSX.

            Apr 22, 2022 22:51 PM

            I am mostly Junior Explorers so I deserve what I am getting. They have dragged them being last to move out longer this time … possibly because they are in more trouble this time. They are probably still bailing out the banks as the banks can’t cover their derivative debt in our lifetime. They can’t cover the Politicians debt as they bought too many of them. They can’t cover the banks fraud and the Politicians debt and given a choice they will cover the banks which will continue to inflate the guy on the street to death. They will continue to suck everything out of every market and can’t fix any of them.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:29 AM

    Speaking of junk, pgm best performer up over 13% today and much more for the week. LOL Most of the rest have done their round trip once again and marginally off their annual lows. Getting close to taking another flyer on these as I’m sure the gold bugs will reappear on mass with all kinds of good news about drilling results blah blah. Little about making any money however.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:13 PM

      PGM changed their CEO and got a loan from Sprott. Maybe things will change there.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:52 AM

    weekly gdx…The horizontal 3 dashed lines are configured as a bearish TAS profile…this i know…2 weeks close below that center at 36.84 is serious loss of momentum…..and in ‘theory’ allows for the bottom of the TAS profile to be retested near 30….i have no idea what will actually occur…i let the charts paint the picture…glta…right now weekly support is acting as it should….is some strange population deflation kicking in behind the scenes?…i think sometimes the most unexpected events prove to be the determinate ones…imho

    Apr 22, 2022 22:16 PM

    So, inflation is on the wane according to David Rosenburg. Better get some TLT!

      Apr 22, 2022 22:07 PM

      TBT HAS A NEAR 50% gain since Dec

    Apr 22, 2022 22:58 PM

    By the summer, inflation will likely wane YOY . The next 2 months will be the time to acquire those PM stocks that have been taken to the barn. I often avert listening to other technicians but this Gary Wagner recently feels we’re in the last phase of the PM bull market as it relates to the Elliot way theory. He feels the yellow metal will rally to 2100-2300 after which it will move lower for multiple years—that should make everyone feel warm and comfortable.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:03 PM

    Also negative is the COT report this week—-no massive lowering of the short positions as far as the commercials are concerned.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:09 PM

    picked up uec at 4.52 at the close. Couldn’t help myself Only skin in the game so far.
    Doc that sounds like a reasoable gold move. May be precipated by another Putin nuke scare or similar excuse.
    Those with lots of cash are in a candy store as you stated, those otherwise will be licking their wounds and hoping to break even yet again hoping for yet another pop up with this consolidation to the recent March high.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:14 PM

      Jonsyl, I’m starting to ramp up my purchasing and will even more in the weeks to come. I’m concentrating now on the juniors and will look at the mid tier as they move lower. The other area I like and will start purchasing are a lot of the silver miners as they capitulate. I’m getting interested in some conventional market stocks that have been spanked. Netflix will be a purchase in a few weeks as an example.

        Apr 22, 2022 22:13 PM

        Doc, a couple questions:
        when you say Jr’s, are you talking about Explorers/Developers? Or actual producers?…any examples.
        Do you see this time as a mini-2009 b/c of liquidity being drained, and then a ramp-up once the Fed pivots, maybe lasting 18 months after that period?

          Apr 22, 2022 22:22 PM

          Nawanda, I am quite eclectic now with my selections. I don’t appreciate developers right now due to their inflation costs—- capital and other costs. I’ll give you a few of the stocks I’m acquiring right now to show you that “eclectic” thought process—-I really like the technicals of these stocks also since the monthly charts show they should move slowly down instead of plunging. As some other stocks come back again I’ll add them to my buy list also based on monthly technicals. Mux, AXU (just began to purchase—sold months ago close to the top), Fsx.v, Fury, Bcm.v, Cde (just began to purchase—sold months ago), and Tslv.v. Of course I own other PM stocks that have run recently and will add to when they come back to my buy position again. I recently sold both Ogc.v and Mirasol after nice runs and will reenter when back in my buy targets again—I’ll then hold them for the long haul.

            Apr 22, 2022 22:33 PM

            What are some of the big names you suggest?
            I only buy PM stocks that pay dividend. So even if they go down, I still earn something holding them. PAAS, AEM, NEM, SSRM have been in my portfolio in the past. I will start buying PAAS again around $24-25 region. Same with AEM and SSRM. I like action in SSRM and thinking I should add when it hits $19

            Apr 22, 2022 22:34 PM

            Cali, the only big names right now are Sand, Eqx, and and Auy.

            Apr 22, 2022 22:56 PM


            Apr 23, 2022 23:04 AM

            Got my eye on Fury and Coeur.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:09 PM

    Silver could easily move back to $22-$22.50. It will be a great time to purchase more of the quality stocks.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:40 PM

    Another Freaky Friday……………… rolling right along…………..
    Gold looking good………… silver is still asleep…….

      Apr 22, 2022 22:14 PM

      I will be buying more silver , if, it moves down……..phyz only……….. GOTS………

    Apr 22, 2022 22:46 PM

    ya, patience has paid off for you with the gradual accumulation For me it’s mostly totally out and very happy for it. Don’t understand the math who some who take a little off at consolidation tops maintaining a 90% invested position, then watch the drawdown on that position and hope to add with minimal cash to recover. Each his own I guess.
    Will be interesting to see the conventional market back near it’s 4200 spx level. This recent entire correction from 4800 or so is but a pimple when looked at from a broader horizon, the double bottom at 2500 level back to only Mar 2020. Yet the fundamental news being pumped out is ultra negative.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:44 PM

      Jonsyl, you’re quite right on—-I also feel sorry for those at the top who were touting their 100% positions and thought we were going to go ever higher. I rarely ever go all in on markets—it only took me once at an early age to try that and experience pain that was an excellent teacher. As I acquire at some ridiculous low prices now it doesn’t negate the fact we could be entering a precarious severe recession that not many people saw coming so it behooves one to just accumulate slowly and not jump all in.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:11 PM

    Shorting oil and silver on Feb. 24th was the wrong move just as delaying buying in January due to the coming candy store opening was the wrong move. In my opinion, it is premature to talk about silver “easily” moving back to 22 – 22.50 since several supports of different types would have to break first.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:44 PM

    Action in miners is not positive at all

    Apr 22, 2022 22:55 PM

    80 to 1……….. who would have thunk……….

    Apr 22, 2022 22:40 PM

    This week could have hardly painted a worse looking price bar/candle but I don’t see it as anything like the one that kicked off the crash of 2020. We’ll soon find out if I’m right or not but it looks like it will amount to a normal correction complete with the needed breaking of the steep uptrend. We knew it had to come eventually and it did so at multiple big picture resistance levels (not shown on the following chart)…

      Apr 22, 2022 22:45 PM

      Breakout fake-out and back to speed line support (and halfway to the next fork support which also often acts as support). A 3.3% gap down on Monday would put GDX at Fibonacci fan support.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:49 PM

      This week was obviously a bearish reversal but is still a far cry from the one that happened in February 2020.

        Apr 22, 2022 22:22 PM

        Getting ready with my shovel and wheelbarrow.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:12 PM

      Thanks Matthew. I get the feeling, we could drop a little further and dip buyers show up. After all this is going to be a first major pullback after hitting that big $2k number.

        Apr 22, 2022 22:34 PM

        I agree with that. It would be unusual and impressive if a week like this one didn’t bring some kind of follow-through. Hopefully we’ll get a gap down on Monday along with a reversal. From there, we could get consolidative action for weeks before a higher high is attempted. Conversely, if next week is nothing but more of the same, it could be months before things look good again.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:59 PM

    I feel sorry for those who were touting their huge cash positions as the major low came and went. Oh well. Tuition is unavoidable in this business.
    The fork support that marked the March 2021 low for the HUI became the resistance that marked the highs of this year. After the current wringing out is complete and all the usual suspects are confidently committed to more downside, that resistance will be overcome.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:07 PM

    Oh yes, touting the performance of gold is preaching to the choir and is no great revelation. In fact, any additional downside here to 1900 or marginally below is also not a great concern as it will likely find support and attempt to eclipse its aug 2020 high. Gold will not crash nor is anyone here suggesting that.
    Problem is most here don’t hold gold or accumulate more on the dips. Thanks to the well intended advice from this site and the kitco promoters talking their book, they buy the junior producers and explorers. Rather than sell the pop up rallies, they hold or double down on the dips repeatedly. Inevidently,gold gets a sniffle, these get covid and many of the dregs are put on ventilators. And here we are again as with many of the past pop ups, the dregs again scrapping along or making annual lows with gold yet to correct below 1900.

      Apr 22, 2022 22:07 PM

      You’re missing the reason for the so-called touting of gold. In case you didn’t know, it is the king of the sector and always will be. When it breaks free from the big fork resistance I showed above, it will be a big deal for the miners. The impact on them will be bullishly asymmetrical to the size of the gold move that brings the breakout and if silver breaks out of its own huge resistance levels, it will be even better for the whole sector as well as the silver miners.

        Apr 23, 2022 23:15 AM

        Matthew, no disagreement that gold is pivotal wth the entire sector, you keep stating the obvious as some kind of new found discovery. The fact however remains although the kingpin gold has stair stepped its way to progressive higher consolidation levels including the latest pop up from early February to early March while the broader sector which should be beneficiary of this advance the producers, have basically gone nowhere except for select major producers as with nem, abx etc. The juniors and explorers with few exceptions are duds, or worst losers, yet forever promoted.
        Yes their day in the sun may / should arrive, but that’s not been the case irrespective of all the false happy talk from the die hearts and kitco promoters paraded on this site for as long as I can remember. Including silver which continues to underperform and should do the opposite if the marginal dregs are to have any hope. Those that kept buying into that narrative are junfortunately underwater, as some have honestly expressed.
        And here we are again.
        Yes, you state the obvious, should gold breakout then there should indeed be an asymmetrical sector move, including the current dregs, silver and everything under the sun in the sector.
        Point being, the most recent gold pop up failed to give evidence of this, as was the case with all those preceding pops in spite of the hype at the time.
        I’m happy to play the swing and get out when I don’t see that happening and reloading for another gold breakout attempt. I’ve actually made some money, have you?
        This in spite of your idiotic claims of me and others, of not understanding, being in the sheeple crowd for not following your wisdom etc. Love how you react to Doc’s posts where you just can’t help yourself in proving some goofy point of your wisdom, at times from a decade ago.
        After all you have been acknowledged by the site hosts as a valued contributor. You may eventually be right, I suspect it will take a while so I wouldn’t bet the farm.

          Apr 23, 2022 23:45 AM

          As usual, you don’t have the foggiest idea what you’re talking about. Good luck whiny boy.

    Apr 22, 2022 22:47 PM

    The Fed made the mistake of making the General Markets a symbol of economic stability as a political tool. They are having trouble holding it together and failure triggers algo attacks on all markets. This is what criminals do. They cannot admit to intervention, so they take it all down rather than admit failure. Every day of a failing market will be addressed with a fabricated excuse until total collapse or some form of reset. They had hoped for a conversion to an authoritarian form of government, thereby making failure moot. That also failed and now they must hope for a reset. In the meantime, counter intuitive intervention is the only game in town.

    Apr 23, 2022 23:57 AM

    I’m basically all in JR miners & plan to stay that way. I’ve played whack-a-mole for years. $$ has definitely started flowing into explorers. It’s hard to get in when the melt up happens.