Ed Moya – Selloffs Continue For All Asset Classes, The Perfect Storm For Lower Prices Is Here

May 9, 2022

Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA joins us to discuss the selloff to start the week. Pretty much every asset class is down, and down multiple percent. We weigh whether this is just technical or more structural for the markets. Also why no safe haven assets are getting a buy.




Click here to visit the OANDA website and keep up to date on Ed’s daily market notes.

    May 09, 2022 09:21 AM

    Bitcoin down 54% from its Nov 21 highs.

      May 09, 2022 09:05 PM

      Yep, many sectors in the hurt locker with the general markets down about 27% from their November highs, as well. But look at some of the PM Mining stocks – they’re down 40%-80% from their highs in Aug 2020, so it’s ugly pretty much everywhere. The Uranium stocks are mostly down double digits today, so lot’s of capitulation out there for sure.

      My portfolio is down over 7% today, which is a really big move on such a diversified basket of stocks, and the biggest downdraft I’ve seen since the pandemic crash. Brutal…. just brutal… 🙁

        May 09, 2022 09:43 PM

        Doc with the GDXJ and SILJ both down over 7% as well… is this the candy store opening or do you want to see more downside follow-through first?

          May 09, 2022 09:06 PM

          Ex, there will be more carnage before the candy store is open wide—as I mentioned in December, 2022 will be an ugly year for ALL asset classes and forget about the PMs ending significantly higher at the end of the year. They’ll bottom here most likely by July and then hang around that bottom for weeks with no V shape big move up this year. People will be spooked for some time. The next 2 months as mentioned about 3 weeks ago will give folks buying opportunities of a lifetime but they will have to be patient to be rewarded.

            May 09, 2022 09:10 PM

            Thanks for the feedback and for sharing your technical outlook Doc. I couldn’t help but add to a number of PM positions today into the carnage, and I blew out a few more positions as tax loss sales as I timed the entries in them poorly and will just wait out the 30 day wash periods to repurchase. This helped me raise so more funds, but I guess I’ll hold onto some of that dry powder to fire off later if we see a continued downward trend in the near-term.

            Also today I added to a few Uranium positions into the hefty selling pressure.

        May 09, 2022 09:16 PM

        The expected recovery in the stock market has not come, tomorrow is Tuesday. Tuesday is one of those days where you have to look out for the end of the day, especially the last hour. If this doesn’t turn around soon look for a perfect Niagara of liquidation. An unprecedented number of margin calls must be on their way to insecurely margined traders.
        Perhaps the turn could come tomorrow. Surely this could not go on much longer. DT

          May 09, 2022 09:42 PM

          Some sobering thoughts there DT, but today already looked like a Niagra liquidation in many stocks and sectors. I guess the selling can beget more selling in moves like this, but I’m interested to see if we don’t at least get a relief rally soon from oversold conditions, and a possible rolling over of the US Dollar index and interest rates… at least for a short period.

    May 09, 2022 09:42 PM

    SILJ..if does not hold above the 1/1/22 swing low it is testing…well the next target down becomes 7.41 area of the ABC down …and this current candle appears to have sufficient volume to break that….serious price destruction….

    monthly chart above for overview

    May 09, 2022 09:32 PM

    Technical or whatever, TLT may have seen it’s low at 112.62.

    May 09, 2022 09:03 PM

    Despite a huge 30% drop in 3 weeks, SILJ is still slightly above its late January low (the low that some considered high because much lower prices were coming with the candy store opening).

      May 09, 2022 09:08 PM
      May 09, 2022 09:56 PM

      What happened to “The miners haven’t looked so good since the 2016 low” statement you made weeks ago?

      I also recall you being fairly critical of Jonsyl for being too bearish when he sold everything the week of March 7. At that time, I called for GDX to build out the right shoulder of an inverse H&S pattern, and that looks like it is playing out bigtime. Heck at this point I am praying that GDX can find some footing at $30 and doesn’t take out the 2021 lows.

        May 09, 2022 09:39 PM

        What I remember is comparing IPT’s setup to 2016 and saying that the very big picture for the whole sector hasn’t looked so good in decades, which is still true. The big charts do not change quickly. Either way, maybe you forget how bad the action and sentiment were back then as everything appeared to bottom in the summer of ’15 only to make new lows 5-6 months later. As for jonsyl, his trading has nothing to do with my criticisms. It’s entirely his attitude around here which comes with claims that are objectively not true. Same goes for Doc; it’s not the numerous wrong calls at major lows that I criticize, it’s the way he carries on as if he’s been right all along that I take issue with.

        It is normal for the majority to engage in praying AFTER so much downside risk has been removed so you’re good with that one.

        The same fork that gave us the March and April highs for the miners better give us the low or your H&S low will probably not survive…

          May 09, 2022 09:01 PM

          ok great chart as usual Matthew…hui is in count 4 of a strong momentum TD9 move down…that says to me…once bottomed the final 9 count may occur from shorter bars moving sideways…so most price may be grinding out quickly here…

            May 09, 2022 09:24 PM

            Thanks for sharing, Larry.
            There’s plenty to worry about here but breaking the covid crash lows isn’t on my list. Famous last words?

            I think it’s telling that the dollar wasn’t able to do more with today’s action in the stock market. It looks like it’s running out of steam and needs to pullback for weeks or months even if it does have a date with much higher levels (which I’m not convinced of just yet).

            May 10, 2022 10:47 AM

            not the covid low, this low is above that…sorry if i messed up..

            month lower channel is area in play over time and normal .618 retrace area…so focus on end points and do not succumb to fakeouts ….imho

            MO chart

      May 09, 2022 09:58 PM

      SILX…this appears to be the overdo seasonal cycle low being put in miners…so the question really is do we break that covid low in march/april…because if we do, that says the 9 year cycle top is in and therefore a few more down years…..Matthew, then once again, play the rally’s takes over…it burns me out but i am up for it….imho…looks like docs 4th call for a top was the charm…good call….

    May 09, 2022 09:48 PM

    Thanks for the charts Matthew..

    We are definitely at capitulation/bearish sentiment 85% give or take possibly 90% from gold miners top in 2020.

    When you look at board you are compounded by bearish sentiment, Armageddon and nothing positive in any fashion towards the metals. Basically no love lol…

    When we look at the grand scheme of things and major charts like quarterly or monthly we see a pattern that’s developed or developing if you do have a trained eye. I’m not a trader long term investor so my m pattern calls long ago have materialized but the market has been as preached erratic and that would be an understatement for what’s coming.

    I’m sticking to my guns and predicted impact would at some point reach .31 and I still believe that. I do not want to see that breach or we are toying with a longer bear. However .31 has been a target for sometime and it’s definitely close and coincides with my off the record talk with Matthew and Scorpio filling it’s .4 cents weekly gap and here we are. For some of the usual suspects I would not take those numbers lightly for a turn however I’m not married to them.

    Lastly you may ask yourself this question, who led the bear or correction down? Gold first way before everything else.. Secondly you think gold needs to here Powell or sniff cuts in rates or more printing? No it no way before hand. Also gold and silver have been at the forefront of this massive 2 years plus direction stretch a rubber band that long and I disagree with docs no v I would say once the money pours into miners knowing the fed is cooked and economy is bad the shortage in gold production due to inflation cost and personal workers will adjust the price of gold accordingly and this has been discussed by the top peers in the sector. Gold and silver any day will explode higher and when it does look out! Of course everyone will have times it and spoken in real terms like Terry when he bought iamgold at the bottom 😂…

    Folks we are at depressing extreme lows and guys like Matthew and ex and Jerry i won’t include myself have been vocal at every cross road low..

    This low will be a massive “ long term” low for the ages it will be the mother of all lows and miners will kill any other sector.


      May 09, 2022 09:39 PM

      “Any day now” is little comfort when some of my stocks are dropping 10% per day and are now down 50-80% from their 2021 highs.

      May 09, 2022 09:11 PM

      .31 for IPT would be fine intraweek but I prefer not to see a weekly close below .335…

        May 09, 2022 09:16 PM

        I agree Matthew..

      May 09, 2022 09:32 PM

      Glen, you have repeatedly pointed to what you view as epic bearishness with the gold equities as the signal for the arrival of a nirvanna moment in the not too distant future for months. First, the extreme bearishness you point out isn’t there now, let alone in the past months. Folks have and continue to buy into the lows. Yours truly included just recently. So there you go, most everyone is a nibbler or at least a holder.
      I have yet to hear anyone throwing in the towel. Except Joe, and you saw the beating he took LOL

        May 09, 2022 09:51 PM

        Jonsyl – There is no reason to throw in the towel when the larger bull market is still intact. In a bull market pullbacks should be bought, hence the nibbling by so many on this board. In a year these prices in many mining stocks will be seen as the gift they are.

        I’ve seen nothing to indicate the PM bull is over and gold has not made a lower low below $1673, much less below the lessor higher lows of $1721, or $1780.

          May 09, 2022 09:43 PM

          Each to his own Ex.
          For me the higher consolidation levels for gold are small comfort when the sector beneficiaries, which most here buy, hold, and double down on, underperform with gold’s upside move and overperform on its downside. In fact the mantra of most pundits has always been to buy the sector equities as their returns on a gold advance are supposedly superior.
          This thing is getting progressively oversold, barring an outright crash, which could happen as an outlier, as most crashes occur from oversold levels and not at tops, we await another gold pop up rally. Whether there is another repeat of the same history or the change in character is a certainty I prefer to see happen.

      May 09, 2022 09:37 PM

      Good thoughts Glenfidish and thanks for sharing your technical outlook.

      I’ve been toying around with adding one more tranche to Impact, but earlier today it was holding in the green and diverging from most other silver stocks, before finally reversing in the red near the end of the trading session. If it gets down substantially lower, anywhere near your $0.31 target (or even $0.33-$0.32) then I’ll throw another log on the fire.

      May 09, 2022 09:52 PM

      I just don’t want to see GDX break below $29.

    May 09, 2022 09:46 PM
    May 09, 2022 09:01 PM

    Turn Table (MaxSat Counts):
    This variation shows total counts of all factors which have Maximum Saturation (100%), without parameter adjustments. It will take another week to become fully populated. At that time I will probably switch over. Comments and questions are most welcome. – Bob

      May 10, 2022 10:18 AM

      This will remain in test mode for now
      and updated post market hours.
      The link will remain active.

        May 10, 2022 10:44 AM

        FYI: Light grey main body cells represent single MaxSat factors.

      May 09, 2022 09:30 PM

      That looks like a potential head & shoulder’s top in Hecla. Is that a potential point of concern in your opinion?

        May 09, 2022 09:09 PM

        Good question. H&S top or not, if nothing “good” happens this week, There could easily be another 20%+ drop from here.
        Here’s another nearby support zone:

          May 10, 2022 10:20 AM

          Good chart Matthew. Yes, it would be nice to see the current support area hold, and not trigger the other side of the H&S pattern decline, but we’ll see if there is a respite from the selling for the balance of this week. With a position in Hecla, but concerned that was the pattern playing out, then I’ve considered selling it or at least paring it back if the corrective move dips much deeper, and then just buying it back at a lower levels.

    May 09, 2022 09:10 PM

    Silver hasn’t spent so much time below its 600 day MA since the covid crash.

      May 10, 2022 10:12 AM

      Honestly the structure at least superficially looks like the 2012-2013 top. All we need now is for it to gap down below the 200 WMA.

      The small cap miners like AXU, which lead the way down back in ‘12-‘13, are certainly acting like they did back then and even look similar in their rate of decent.

        May 10, 2022 10:22 AM

        At least you said superficially because it’s no more than that.

    May 09, 2022 09:44 PM

    Back to 88% in cash after selling mirasol and oceanagold after their runs—-they’re already headed back down—plan to repurchase again at some nice low prices in the future—-it’s good to be heavy into cash for the nice new lows we’ll see in the future—-those who are nursing heavy losses from being 100% into PM stocks should not lose faith since sometime in the future we’ll once again have a run higher however you may have to wait for a number of months or the other option is to sell now to help the final capitulation down.

      May 09, 2022 09:55 PM

      Quite the choice you paint Doc.
      One of them choice scenarios a person has of being caught between a rock and hard place, or damned if you do and damned if you don’t, or when you eventually get to a fork in the road, you should take it.

        May 09, 2022 09:53 PM

        Jonsyl, doesn’t the fork have equal options? Did you mean the high road or the low road?

          May 10, 2022 10:33 PM

          you’ll have to ask Yogi, Brumple.

    May 09, 2022 09:54 PM

    Interactive Brokers free service Trading Central, is recommending bond funds short term. They’ve identified a bullish hammer on a municipal bond fund chart. Not being a technical guy, I can’t spot a hammer there, looks more like a dog with a long tail.

    May 09, 2022 09:37 PM

    The CRB closed below the 50 day MA for the first time this year and generally looks ready for a correction. That bodes well for the monetary metals though not necessarily right away.

      May 10, 2022 10:16 AM

      I honestly doubt silver is going anywhere while the CRB corrects or trends sideways. I think the CRB is going to have to consolidate to let the 100 WMA catch up to price, which means some time next year it could make another move higher. I think silver and the crb move up together. All the CRB did over the last 2 years was catch up to silver.

        May 10, 2022 10:30 AM

        They could eventually sync-up but silver is going to blow away most commodities and will definitely crush the CRB. In the final analysis, silver is a monetary metal more than an industrial metal so it has a huge advantage when the economy is bad and getting worse.

          May 10, 2022 10:17 AM

          well if you look at slv:gcc, it is hard to imagine silver going to the moon anytime soon vs the rest of the complex. I think conventional TA would suggest that it could be years before silver makes a moonshot vs GCC now. I base this mostly on the size and speed of the selloff in that ratio since 2020–basic chart damage. While silver could absolutely resume an uptrend in nominal terms, it looks like it could be flat to down vs the complex for a number of years yet. I just know that the 2020 peak is not going to be taken back any time soon–again likely for years.

          In a similar fashion, silver basically underperformed the commodity complex for something the first 5 years of the last commodity bull (iirc) and only really started its ramp up after 2005.

    May 09, 2022 09:38 PM

    Doc is habitually bearish just when the bottom hits. He might be right. Avi G calling for imminent S&P rally & Morris H. bullish on Jr’s miners

    May 10, 2022 10:36 AM

    /GC trading or daily cycle occurred on 5/3 and the previous on 3/29(perfect events time wise)….so as long as 5/3 price is not broken below….we could have a sideways consolidation within a new daily cycle…that would be a close shave bottom and one for the books…if you believe in cycles…i do…really just profit taking etc…

    May 10, 2022 10:38 AM

    Docs been bearish for a long time, and he has been right to be so bearish.

    IMO until the xau:gold chart can get a positive cross of the 200 and 600 WMAs, there is no true bull market in the miners, at least in real terms.

    May 10, 2022 10:44 AM

    In 2018, gdx bottomed about a month before the powell pivot. I am not so sure this time. I have a hard time believing any market will bottom until Powell expressly relents. A bear market rally is obviously possible at any time in the interim.

    May 10, 2022 10:13 AM

    HEY GLEN………….. thanks for the mention above.
    Gold going up……. and has for years…….. Long term it is a great investment
    Sheeple have not woken up yet…….. PERIOD.
    Same old story……… Fake Fed….. is going to continue to PRINT, …
    Fake Govt. needs the money…to seen to WARMONGERS, MICC……. Nothing has changed in 50 yrs.
    Rome at it’s best……. Caesar after Caesar,…. the last elections shows and exposes the truth, on both sides
    STAY SAFE……..

      May 10, 2022 10:28 AM

      I don’t think anyone is debating that gold bullion has been stellar and that you will never lose your shirt or sleep using cash to buy bullion.

      It’s the extremely speculative miners that are the problem, and to a lesser extent silver, both of which have underperformed just about every other asset class on the planet over the last decade.

        May 10, 2022 10:16 AM

        Hello Green……..
        I was just reestablishing ……… my LONG TERM……. comment to GLEN.
        Thanks for the comment……
        I was going to comment on silver, …. which I have done several times in the past,…..but, no need.
        Miners…….. I leave that to EX, MATT, and GLEN….