Craig Hemke – Macroeconomic Trends Are Playing Out As Expected But Getting Over-Stretched Here

Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to review the recent pullbacks across the board in almost every sector whether general equities, bonds, or the precious metals and commodities. The discussion covers a number of macro factors including the Fed rate hiking cycle, persistently high inflation, the strong US dollar, and the poor investor sentiment a present.  


Craig outlined as similar trajectory for the year in his Macrocast 2022 report in January, and walks people though how some of these trends were already in motion coming into the macroeconomic backdrop for this year. He is expecting to see a reversal in these trends in the medium-term, as the Fed gets further into the rate hiking cycle and eventually needs to pivot back to accommodative policies once again.  We wrap up talking about whether the precious metals sector will eventually diverge from the general markets, and what the catalysts may be for that to occur.



Click here to visit Craig’s site, TF Metals Report.

    May 12, 2022 12:37 PM

    If you have cash you are on the cusp of having a wonderful buying opportunity, I don’t think you will ever see anything like this again in your lifetime. DT

    May 12, 2022 12:44 PM

    And POOF!!!
    It’s gone. Any gains in PM shares you had are gone, and you’re now in the red.
    But hey, don’t listen to me. I’ve been urging you to sell.
    But you haven’t, have you?
    Why? Do you LIKE losing money?
    Do you like sitting there while oil, energy, and other sector move up and hold their gains against the headwind of selling?
    What’s wrong with you?
    SELL YOUR PMs shares NOW!

      May 12, 2022 12:40 PM

      The tell.

    May 12, 2022 12:58 PM

    Bingo! My long term call for impact silver got filled at .31 does not mean i preferred this however glad i have now averaged down on it and my other buy orders are ready if needed.

    I think we are extremely close and this will be a v bounce contrary to what doc thinks. The miners were the first to lead the entire sector down and will be the most explosive up outperforming everything for the next 4-6 months.

    The pattern I’m watching has always oscillated between 2005/2008 I’m glad I looked at both sectors months ago. This move down in the miners was stealth like meaning slow but grinding and now the whip saw which will end any day. I can’t imagine anyone being 88% cash and not getting in when the v will come 99%. I don’t want to hear I’m all in if this happens real time is all I care about and only one or two have bought heavily after today or at least wet there Beak meaningfully.

    US dollar is ready to fall like a knife! Mark. My words today..


      May 12, 2022 12:07 PM

      Sorry, Glen; you might get a little “v” but not the big “V for quite awhile. There are multiple charts that show the odds are quite low for a big “V” bounce anytime soon.

        May 12, 2022 12:24 PM

        Doc, do you have thoughts on Argonaut, took a major hit on another instalment of past news on cost overruns etc. This one has been around forewver and should survive.

          May 13, 2022 13:19 AM

          Jonsyl, I almost pulled the trigger on ARNGF on the close today but my greed set in. The sell volume is still high which might mean even lower prices. There is a beautiful gap down and when you get a drop like this in a stock in a general down market you’ll often see the stock gently trade down for a few days yet—another example is IAG which I took a position in recently. The difference there is that pricing stopped right at the lower BB of the monthly chart although in this catastrophic market it doesn’t mean IAG can’t move lower which it probably will. I’m looking at Argonaut ultimately settling aroung the 50-60 cent level at which I’ll purchase some. I’ll be following it closely on the really short term charts to try to find a good entry point.

            May 13, 2022 13:20 AM

            Thanks for the follow up Doc.
            Feel the same, best to wait in case there’s another bullet in the chamber in this game of russian roulette of picking up catastrophic hits.
            The character of any recovery with these dregs will tell the tale as they need to at least keep pace with their product.

    May 12, 2022 12:34 PM

    Been around long enough to see this site saturated with bears lmao… They don’t do a twinkle to me or my account!

    By the way to all the good lads out here..

    I have one thing to say.. tonight it’s premium beer and pizza and panzo lol

    Go leafs go! Go leafs go!

      May 12, 2022 12:11 PM

      Go Leafs, Go Oilers. Either one is fine with me.

    May 12, 2022 12:57 PM

    Bitcoin fell $2,000 very quickly last night after I said it would be quick and now it sitting about $3,000 above my fork supports. Despite the bounce, the fall isn’t done, not by a long shot.

      May 12, 2022 12:57 PM

      Hi Matthew, I always thought the crypto phenomenon was destined for the ash heap, like Tulip Bulb mania in The Netherlands in the 1600’s. This just came out by Goldfinger, Crypto Schadenfreude.

        May 12, 2022 12:01 PM

        Hi DT, I agree with Goldfinger. The crypto true-believers are a cult if I ever saw one and their devotion is going to get challenged way beyond their expectations.

    May 12, 2022 12:02 PM

    Gold jumped 30% vs HUI in one month but now looks like it’s about done.

    May 12, 2022 12:04 PM
    May 12, 2022 12:12 PM
    May 12, 2022 12:34 PM

    Ex must be in North Dakota hunkered down in his missile silo! 🐱‍🚀 DT

      May 13, 2022 13:33 AM

      Haha! Good one DT. I took the afternoon and evening off yesterday to clear my mind, after a brutal few weeks in the markets, and just reading over all the interesting comments here this morning. Cheers!

    May 12, 2022 12:51 PM

    Today’s Saturation Story

    Have the general markets bottomed?
    (Many good bottoming candlesticks.)

    Maximum Saturation Counts
    DIA – (6) – (6)
    QQQ – (7) – (6)
    SPY – (7) – (7)
    UWM – (6) – (6)
    Such consistency is unusual.

    However, here’s the kicker:
    .DJT – (7) – (7)
    Transports have joined in!

    Tomorrow is Friday the 13th,
    with Full Moon Monday next.
    PM miners could well benefit.

    *Current counting is stricter.

    May 12, 2022 12:58 PM

    Day/ GDX is in bar 6 of a TD9 count momentum move down…This tool when in synch w technicals and fib retacement zones and confluence like the Gartley buy zone like RSI divergence like volume characteristics showing selling exhaustion…etc…etc…bearish sentiment like wowowowo…like COT data showing commercials acquiring gold etc…get your beach balls ready to play…I think a low may accure next week by WED…lmao…

    EX…I am studying this company called MTA..The royalty firm presented in a you-tube you posted…That looks to be the chosen one for this inflation game…You think so?..Maybe bring on a management spokesman?..just an idea…
    GLTA…darkest before the sunrise….

      May 13, 2022 13:14 AM

      Hi Larry – MTA Metalla is a good one and we’ve had Brett on the show recently for an interview and royalty partner update. Here is a link to that interview we did if you are interested.

      I am a shareholder and fan of MTA, but personally like the larger production profile and expected revenues in MMX Maverix and NSR Nomad a little better (but because of this attractive profile Nomad is being acquired by SAND Sandstorm at present). I already had heavier weightings to NSR and SAND before this deal was announced, so when the merger is complete, I’ll likely shave the position sizing down some and rotate more over to MMX, MTA, VOX, and maybe restock some of my ELE Elemental position, now that the hostile bid from GROY Gold Royalty Corp thankfully failed for the 2nd time. Triple Flag TFPM is another interesting company I’m reviewing, and you can’t go wrong with the larger companies like Franco-Nevada FNV, Wheaton Precious Metals WPM, and Royal Gold RGLD, but they already had much bigger moves compared to the smaller mid-size and junior royalty companies so there is likely more upside potential in the names I mentioned further up.

        May 13, 2022 13:43 AM many thanks for your useful statement…Thank you EX!…I will study everything that you mentioned and see where it leads…many thanks…peace

          May 14, 2022 14:57 AM

          Sure thing Larry. Cheers!

    May 12, 2022 12:02 PM

    The HUI hit 2 fork supports in a price zone that should also provide support.

    May 12, 2022 12:35 PM

    HL looks like it’s bottoming perfectly at fork support. Note the bullish long-legged doji…

    May 12, 2022 12:17 PM

    Today’s low for gold looks golden to me and a quick dip near 1800 could be ok…

    May 13, 2022 13:16 AM

    FREAKY FRIDAY…………….. again………. man time flys…….

    May 13, 2022 13:26 AM

    Very interesting start to FREAKY FRIDAY…….. MAY 13…… 🙂

      May 13, 2022 13:34 AM


        May 13, 2022 13:02 AM

        At least we are getting a nice green day in the resource stocks today with gold, silver, copper, uranium stocks bouncing up nicely, and some of the more pronounced losers recently are some of the biggest gainers in today’s relief rally.

    May 13, 2022 13:38 AM