Weekend Show – Investing Game Plans For A True Bear Market; US Markets, Gold and Silver and Commodities
Well that was sure an ugly week for the financial markets. Nothing was safe from the selloffs that carried over from last week and picked up steam early this week. This is true bear markets action something investors have not seen in decades. The most recent “bear markets” came fast with key events impacting isolated sectors then carrying over to everything else. This time we are seeing everything move down together in a more orderly fashion, much like a true bear market.
We focus this Weekend’s Show on how to invest in a true, prolonged bear market.
Please keep in touch by emailing us at Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com. We love hearing what you all think of the markets and if there are any companies you would like to see on the show.
- Segment 1 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager kicks off the show by sharing his trading strategy. Dana has been spot on calling this market reversal in Q4 of last year. Now that it’s a completely different market Dana has been on top of where to protect gains and how to play any bear market bounces that are coming. Dana also wanted to add that he was buying Bitcoin on Thursday afternoon. Click here to visit Dana’s site to learn more about what he is trading.
- Segment 2 and 3 – Jayant Bhandari, Private Investor and Consultant joins us this weekend to focus on the washout junior metals stocks. With some of these stocks now trading simply at a cash in the bank valuation it can be hard to pull the trigger. Jayant shares details on the collapse in volume and financings as well as the valuations ounces int he ground are carrying at this point.
- Segment 4 – Axel Merk, President and CIO of Merk Investments wraps up the show with a conversation focused on stagflation and a recent conference he attended with Fed speakers. A lot of the weakness in markets can be attributed to the Fed tightening so it’s important to get a good understanding of what their game plans are. Click here to learn more about Merk Investments.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- Osisko Metals – A New Copper Focus With The Deal For The Gaspé Copper Project, And Maiden Recent Resource Estimate
- Goldshore Resources – Exploration Update And Discovery Of New Parallel Zone At Moss Lake
- Pacific Ridge Exploration – A B.C. Focused Copper-Gold Exploration Company With A $6+ Million Exploration Budget This Year
- Kodiak Copper – More Information On The Dillard Target, Recent 2 Holes Released Are The Best Ever
- Troilus Gold – Exploration Update At The Southwest Zone And Gap Zone
- Gold Bull Resources – Recent Drill Results Expand The North Hill And Able Knoll Deposits At The Sandman Property In Nevada
- Vizsla Silver – Recapping Recent Discoveries and Ongoing Drilling With 13 Rigs At The Panuco Project, Growing The Resource and Making New Discoveries
- Millennial Precious Metals – Exploration Update On High-Grade Wide-Intercept Drill Results At Mountain View
Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Dana, Jayant, and Axel.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
‘When It Unwinds It’s Going To Be Violent’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (05/14/2022)
‘The Worst Possible Environment For Financial Assets’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (05/07/2022)
https://mailchi.mp/felder/worst-environment-for-financial-assets
‘Keeping Your Head When All About You Are Losing Theirs’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – May 11, 2022 #AudioInterview
Short-Term Gold Sector Pain Setting the Stage for Long-Term Gains
David Erfle – Friday May 13th, 2022
“Recent moves by the Federal Reserve have swiftly brought fear into the marketplace of a major policy error that could alternately lead to a slowdown in economic growth, combined with unstoppable inflation.”
“Although the precious metals junior sector carnage has been widespread and deep, due to being higher-risk, the entire marketplace has not been spared. With investors deleveraging to build up cash during a likely upcoming Fed-forced recession, Mr. Market has spared no one.”
“But the pain inflicted on crypto HODLers this week has been far worse than what we have experienced in the gold space. If you had invested $250 million in Terra Luna one month ago, the fourth most popular cryptocurrency at the time, you now have $0.06!”
https://mailchi.mp/fbdd5b279c30/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1600930
Chris Versace – When It’s Time to Say Goodbye to Some Stocks – Stock Market Disaster
Stansberry Research – May 13, 2022
”Good news is not good enough,” from earnings reports to positive economic data with weighted market uncertainty being at the center of it all, says Chris Versace, Chief Investment Officer of Tematica Research. “We’re almost seeing a repeat of the first quarter in 2020,” he tells our Daniela Cambone, “but the catalyst is different.” “Consumer inflation-fighting stocks are a great safe haven and are companies with an elastic business model,” Versace continues when asked about the best place to store money over the next year. He predicts that a “mini-supply chain issue,” will arise once China finds its way out of the current Covid resurgence. Due to the Fed facing a lag in the implementation of monetary policy, a soft landing is not likely, Versace concludes.
Gold & Silver Prices Will Explode After This | Gary Wagner Gold & Silver Price Prediction
Investors Hub – May 14, 2022
(SGI) (SUPGF) Superior Gold Q1 2022 Production Results At Plutonic Gold
Chris Jordan, President and CEO, gives an overview of Q1 2022 Production Results
(SGI) (SUPGF) Superior Gold – Corporate Presentation May 2022
https://superior-gold.com/site/assets/files/6431/superior_gold_-_corporate_presentation_may_2022.pdf
Mako(MKO) came to mind when Jayant mentioned stink bids on illiquid stocks.
Yeah, MKO Mako Mining has been averaging about 274,00 shares daily, so compared to many producers that is still fairly illiquid, but compared to many other junior mining stocks, it’s about par for the course. There are many that are far less liquid than that though, recently with the very low volumes across the board. IPT Impact has only been averaging about 149,000 daily, ARIS Aris Gold has only been averaging 178,000, PGE Group Ten has only been averaging 179,000 shares daily, or KDK Kodiak Copper only around 80,000 shares daily for example.
Relative to the 500 day/2 year MA, gold just hit its lowest level since last August on sentiment readings that are probably worse. As usual, fear is strangely at its greatest AFTER most of the risk has disappeared.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&id=p48260013142&a=1160146764
The chart speaks clearly Matthew…..A buy down here has nice odds of being 5% within the low….However, I will wait for signs of reversal even if on the 30 or 120 minute chart…i want to see a rapid spiral up with volume and hammers everywhere with slow stoch buried over 90%…lmao….not much to want is it?
glta
early june is the low for miners….trading from weekly and monthly is sophmorish…the lag is enormous…i have no problem profiting from daily trading cycles….there are many bottoms not the bottom….fractal nature of time and distance…..
I agree so I watch the daily and intraday charts for certain impulse legs when trading liquid plays like ETFs and large caps but when speculating in tiny cap juniors, I look at everything gold since it is the boss and I am usually in a position for a long time, at least part of the original position. That’s where the very big picture bill of health is important. No matter how good the weekly charts look, the best action happens when the monthly, quarterly and even yearly charts look good. 2016 provided a good example of that as the weekly, monthly and quarterly turned bullish that year like falling dominoes.
I accumulate each junior based on its own chart but I don’t take large positions (relative to their trading volumes) unless I am satisfied with the long term picture. I would stay completely out of the thinly traded little TSX-V listings altogether if I only wanted to focus on the daily charts. I buy them for the big moves which are often tied to “boots on the ground” value added and not just the general conditions of the sector. Scorpio Gold’s 70% gain yesterday based on drill results is a small example.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SGN.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10085360662&a=1139425735
In my view, the most important charts for the immediate and intermediate direction for gold and silver are the weekly charts and the momentum indicators—they’re portending that the path of least resistance is still down. June will probably see Y-O-Y inflation numbers still problematic with the FED raising rates another 50 basis points. The odds of them being dovish at that point are low unless they say the July rate increase will depend on inflation numbers with possibly Y-O-Y being better since July was the month in 2020 when inflation really got its’ mojo going. The July Y-O-Y comparisons then should show a disinflation pattern emerging with rate changes much slower and in fact it could surprise people. That’s when you might have the issue of slowing inflation in the midst of a recession and it would get the talking heads questioning whether the FED would need to back off interest rate along with them decreasing QT sometime in the near future—-and that’s why up to that point the PMs and stocks will continue being under pressure and why the next 6 weeks are probably the best times to purchase that we will see in a long time.
Hi Doc. Agreed that by July, the year-over-year numbers for CPI should start seeing a base effect that brings them down. However, even with the rate of change starting to trend down, this will all still be from already very high levels in most pricing levels. Like Craig mentioned, even a 4% rate of CPI from current prices will still be even higher prices in many of the components inputs.
This will continue to hurt consumers, affecting the demand pull side of the equation, and businesses will need to pass along the higher commodities prices and wages increases with higher prices to customers effecting the cost push side of the equation. With all of these factors, and with the liquidity being gradually mopped up, it’s hard not to see how this won’t continue to pressure overall growth in the economy. Globally it’s a mess out there as well whether Europe, Great Britain, Japan, China, India, Turkey, South Africa, and now Sri Lanka.
Interpretation: six more weeks of downward pressure on JR miners, etc means diversify into those that tend to rebound fastest. THM for me has historically been a great indicator for a market turn. Too early to accumulate here
Germany must be buying Russian oil and natural gas and paying in rubles. Germany is also shipping arms to The Ukrainians. Germany is the leading economy in Western Europe and the only economy that is supporting The Euro. If this war drags on Russia will caught off oil and natural gas to Germany. Germany imports 45% of it’s energy from Russia. There goes Europe, it will immediately go into default.
During The Second World War The Allies continually bombed Germany’s energy sources until The Wehrmacht couldn’t supply their war machine with fuel. That was the most important factor for the destruction of The First Reich, that and secondly The Russian Army.
Fast forward 75 years and you can see how stupid The Europeans have become and in particular Germany. Without Germany, Western Europe and The Euro are finished. DT
OOPS! The First Reich should be The Third Reich. DT
It’s all about oil, all the way back to Pearl Harbor.
And before that……….. 1900…….. Standard Oil….. and what a con job they did on the public….
axel speaks w twisted tongue…probably a junior globalist…vague is the game he is mastering…keep bring him on for interrogations…..🔊😜☎️
Metals Investor Forum starts in about 30 mins in Vancouver. You can still sign up virtually. Just go to the MIF (Metals Investor Forum) site and when it appears…follow directions. Free. Agenda includes presentations by an extensive of list of miners with each session of 4 or 5 miners headed up by either: Gwen Preston, Eric Coffin, John Kaiser, David Morgan, Jordan Roy-Byrne, Peter Krauth, Chen Lin and a final panel of most of those mentioned.
Two days Free.
Did I mention free.
Current Time: 11:31. Starts 12:00 Central or 10:00 Pacific Sunday 5/15. 2 days.
Watch 1790 and then 1780 gold. We don’t want this month to finish below those levels and preferably not even below 1822.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00750480327&a=1164626247
Agreed Matthew. I really don’t want to see that $1780 support give way. If that were to fall then the next major support I’d be looking for would be that $1721 prior trough low. Things have been rough lately for the metals, but $1780 should represent a pretty solid level of support and it is being watched by a number of technicians; so we should see some buying come in a little above that level. Also, $1800 is a big psychological level for traders, and it was a magnet for the 2nd half of last year, so it should still have some solid buying come at that level.
I wouldn’t discount 1790-ish. See the green circles above. Such MA related support/resistance levels are much more important than most realize. Briefly touching 1780 or even lower would probably be ok but closing the month below 1790 would likely be a big problem. For silver, a May close below 20 and probably even 20.15 would be a very negative sign.
Good points Matthew, and yes staying above $1790 on a closing basis would be better.
My screen is all green Monday morning in Sydney, with U miners doing well. VIMY(VMY) +11% and others up 5%
That may bode well for North America U stocks as well then. Usually the Aussie markets set the pace for the uranium trends, but sometimes they are a day late, and Friday was a big up day in most resource stocks. Hopefully it’s the former and not the latter based on that report.
Well, the US uranium stocks were up slightly in the green today, but it would seem the big surge in Aussie U stocks was more of a catchup to the much more intensely green Friday trading session in North American markets.
I feel confident that we are going to get a short term boost in miners, so I will re-enter this market tomorrow. Most of the juniors I had held I will not be buying, that is for another day. My positions will all change except for one and I will be buying a more diversified portfolio. DT
can’t help but notice that the talk has turned from how high to how low can it go, Doc found company but it took a while.
He was confidently looking for much lower prices at the end of January right before gold shot up $300 (!!!) and now that gold has retraced most of that move he’s vindicated and was right all along? Funny stuff.
What really took awhile was waiting for his company during the 2018-2020 move that saw gold go up over $900. He was bearish at every low and never bullish in the present, only the future.
Bought Max Resources. Presented under Eric Coffin at MIF. Endeavor silver took a 5% position. Columbia Copper 160/185 mil fully diluted. 30% available for retail.
With Beer Money picked up a starter position in Braveheart Resources. Bob Moriarty post today from 321gold. Heard of it before. Explorer managed by a mine developer. Known resource copper, copper-nickel. 224 mil shares. Northern Columbia. Libero southern Columbia. Possible on fault or resource that runs down through Peru and Chile.
Also picked up some Chargepoint Holdings CHPT. International charging stations. Nomi Prins.
Started a position in Phenom Resources, PHNMF in the Carlin zone of Nevada. Primarily Vanadium resource with gold found underneath. Supposedly vanadium better than lithium for large storage systems. Phenom under the Greg McCoach section (Jordan Roy-Byrne cancelled from the conference. No explanation given by the hosts)
Started a new position in CMC Metals, CMCXF, a Yukon area silver explorer next to Coeur.
Bought back Southern Silver, SSVFF. Both were presented under Peter Krauth.
CRASH!