Dave Erfle – Will We See A Waterfall Capitulation After The June Rate Hike?

Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to focus on the recent moves in general equities and the precious metals.  While most general equities sectors and indexes are in bear market territory year to date, gold has held up much better overall, being essentially flat on the year.   We discuss the more recent bounce in equities, bonds, and the metals from oversold conditions, in tandem with the US dollar rolling over some; but Dave’s concern is that after the bounce, we still may see a waterfall decline in a larger capitulation move. 


In that kind of a liquidity event, everything will get sold off, including the PMs, so that is why he is more comfortable keeping a healthy cash position in place for now.  All eyes will be on Fed policy and messaging, and what happens after the next 50 basis point hike if they still indicate staying on track to keep tightening.  We discuss some of the technical levels in gold, silver, GDX, and GDXJ that he’d like to see hold this week, and then moving into the monthly close next week.



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    May 24, 2022 24:47 PM

    Dismal Retail Earnings Induce Gold Sector Bounce

    David Erfle – Friday May 20th, 2022

    “With the Federal Reserve announcing its largest and most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in 22 years earlier this month, the marketplace has been pricing in a likely upcoming recession. Although the Fed’s planned quantitative tightening (QT) of its $9 trillion balance sheet has yet to begin as scheduled in June, the anticipation of the monetary punchbowl being taken away has already ushered in the worst start of a calendar year for the stock market since 1939.”

    “After the Fed got caught in a trap of its own making by attempting to lull the market into a false sense of ‘transitory inflation’ security, the market has begun to price in the central bank likely being too late to catch up with continually rising prices. Even former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke admitted in a New York Times interview last week that the Federal Reserve’s delayed response to rising consumer prices “was a mistake” which would lead to a period of stagflation.”

    May 24, 2022 24:23 PM

    This chart shows both gold and housing in historic high price ranges currently….If a decade of housing price deflation unfolds due to economic stagnation with gold rising due to the inflation then this line will fall significantly…will it?…looks likely to me…that is just a guess…lmao

    May 24, 2022 24:33 PM

    This women does a great summation of current recent financial history….I mean spot on…As if she actually works for ‘them’ and is ratting on them……

      May 24, 2022 24:10 PM

      It sounded like she was reading a teleprompter, but whoever wrote the synopsis of the points she outlined, was spot on. Many great points were landed in under 10 minutes: The issues of banks creating money out of nothing, their ability to use and even seize your funds once deposited in their corrupt scheme, the true reason for inflation by increasing the money supply and velocity of money, the purposeful lockdown and suppression of economies the last 2 years while making the pandemic and supply chain issues the scapegoats, the evolving challenges around automation and technologies role in job replacements affecting the working class, and the nonsense and issues around implementing Universal Basic Income (terrible idea).

      If only these points were taught soberly in economics classes, then maybe some folks would wake up out of their mental slumber, conditioning, and indoctrination.

        May 25, 2022 25:06 AM

        thanks EX…nice input as per normal…

          May 25, 2022 25:02 PM

          Cheers Larry!

      May 24, 2022 24:40 PM

      Hi Terry, I don’t think there are too many investors on this site who would buy Rio Tinto a stock he mentioned, although I’m sure Rio Tinto could fare much better than the penny dreadfuls in the event of a market crash. In Canadian you could purchase 100 shares for $9,200 plus brokerage fees. That would be a tremendous change from the way I trade but someone out there may want to take his advice, and/or buy some Rio Tinto for a long term hold in a retirement fund. DT

        May 24, 2022 24:49 PM

        Right DT, but VALE, PBR, GOLD or KGC might be okay. Taylor Dart is positive on Kinross and he owns it.

          May 25, 2022 25:37 AM

          Always interesting to get Rick Rule’s thoughts on the resource stocks, and he made some good points about the value of nuclear energy on the world stage and for the uranium stocks. As the title noted, Rick also points out that there is no vast conspiracy to suppress the price of gold.

          As for producers, I agree that with everything getting slammed, when we see turns in sentiment and trend, that the producers and royalty companies usually get the bid first, and typically are more resilient in the downturns as well. I’m not as animated by the largest producers like Rio Tinto, Vale, Barrick, or Kinross (although I had taken a position in Kinross last year for a period of time as a turnaround story, but then exited on the Great Bear takeover news, having shares in GBR, but then opting not to hold those for the incentive conversion, and just sold all of it as well after the buyout news percolated for a few days). Mark Bristow recently quipped that he wouldn’t consider having Barrick take over Kinross to get the Dixie project (previously held by Great Bear), because their remaining properties were cow dung. That seems a bit extreme, but threw cold water on the deal between 2 of the majors that many were speculating may be in the cards.

          Personally, my portfolio is heavily weighted to the smaller to medium-sized growth oriented producers instead of the biggest ones aforementioned, and same thing with the royalty companies – more small to medium-sized players over the big boys.

    May 24, 2022 24:54 PM

    Brixton Metals Starts Drilling at its Flagship Thorn Copper-Gold Porphyry Project

    VP of Exploration Christina Anstey stated, “We are excited to have begun drilling now, which is the earliest start of a season yet. Two of the high priority targets include the Camp Creek copper dominant porphyry target and the Trapper Gold Target. Additional exploration work is planned to drill ready other copper-gold targets on the massive Thorn Project .“

    Christina Anstey has over 9 years of exploration experience in the Golden Triangle of British Columbia.

      May 24, 2022 24:22 PM

      Right on Matthew!

      In line with my previous statement about Brixton and levels. Most people are nioques lol. In Italian idiots..

      Yes they mentioned awhile back they would be attacking there drills and season way ahead of schedule! Thank you Matthew for guiding me towards this company over 2 years ago amigo!

      May 25, 2022 25:15 PM

      At 1pm today Brixton is down 8.82%………….. on a volume of 2000 shares at .155 cents, haha. Calculate that portion of the market cap, haha!

        May 25, 2022 25:27 PM

        Compare that to last week’s 19% gain on 1.65 million shares. I’ve noticed for awhile now that the big volume is happening mostly on UP days.

          May 25, 2022 25:35 PM

          Thanks for the Brixton heads up, I would buy more but it is already a huge part of my holdings.

    May 24, 2022 24:09 PM

    Brighteon has some credibility issues FWIW.

      May 24, 2022 24:19 PM

      The organization Brighteon may have some issues, but the information covered in that 10 minute video nailed the truth, and it’s a shame more generalist bobble-head economists in the main-stream financial media don’t understand the problems it highlighted.

      Sadly, it should be that everyday people wake up to the reality that it is the central banks and politicians that have the legitimate credibility issues, and have perpetuated crimes against the global citizens. Sadly, many just accept their blather at face value, put them on a pedestal, and don’t even question their actual existence or rise to power in the first place. People get the government they elect, (along with the permitted privately run central banks they didn’t elect), and power brokers they choose to accept. It’s quite sad, but unfortunately very few will ever dig deep enough to see where the real rot is coming from in the system.

        May 24, 2022 24:37 PM

        The people look right past the ridiculous and downright criminal credibility problems of YouTube, Yahoo, Google, FB, Twitter, etc., etc., in addition to the deeds of miscreants like this “nice old grandma” (as Russell Hamilton put it):

          May 24, 2022 24:59 PM

          I have yet to come across a single leftist that is bothered by the diabolical censorship of the last two years let alone outraged by it as they should be. It’s been a real eyeopener. Who would have thought that I was capable of overestimating that part of the population? The stupidity of the mob never ceases to amaze…

          “Freedom of speech is a principal pillar of a free government; when this support is taken away, the constitution of a free society is dissolved, and tyranny is erected on its ruins. Republics and limited monarchies derive their strength and vigor from a popular examination into the action of the magistrates.” — Benjamin Franklin

            May 25, 2022 25:03 AM

            Good points Matthew, and yes the censorship we’ve seen the last 2 years from Google algorithms, YouTube & Facebook & Twitter “fact checkers”, and all the other social media shadow-banning is quite telling. The main stream media has been full of “fake news” for decades now, and has been a long dying animal.

            Technically the social media companies are still privately run companies and can do what they want as it is their businesses, but the hypocrisy in what they claim is “disinformation” and what they consider “trusting the science” is at times laughable and full of subterfuge.

            May 25, 2022 25:22 AM

            It’s interesting to see those social media stocks losing valuations in the market:

            – Snap Inc (SNAP) down 43% just today
            – Alphabet/Google (GOOG) lost 1/3 of it’s value in the last 6 months
            – Meta Platforms/Facebook (FB) chopped in half since last September’s highs
            – Twitter (TWTR) chopped in half since last July’s highs

            May 25, 2022 25:18 AM

            Lot of Great Info……………in the ORPHAN SECTION………….. been spot on for years…. 🙂

      May 25, 2022 25:37 AM

      Was the brighteon article removed as I don’t see it anymore. I couldn’t get into it because of all the overlays coming in my phone. I checked on the site to see if there were issues and there were. So, I guess my phone just couldn’t handle that site. Never heard the discussion or what it was about. Sorry … can’t respond about the substance.

      May 25, 2022 25:07 AM

      Really?…It is just a media platform that has a no censorship mandate….

      May 25, 2022 25:10 AM

      sorry posted below…Brighteon is just a platform with a zero discrimination policy…open platform to all ideas…free for free….no censoring at all…what issues exactly is that?

    May 24, 2022 24:59 PM

    Rot equals Biden equals Pennsylvania where they forgot how to count. IMPEACH!!!!

    May 24, 2022 24:57 PM

    Good finish Wednesday for Aussie gold miners

    May 25, 2022 25:23 AM

    Vince Lanci – Why Fed Insider Zoltan Pozsar is Bullish on Gold & More

    TheDailyGold w/ Jordan Roy-Byrne – May 20, 2022

    May 25, 2022 25:56 AM

    (SGI) (SUPGF) Superior Gold Increases Mineral Reserves by 66% and Inferred Mineral Resources by 29% Offering Extended Mine Life and Further Growth Opportunities

    May 25, 2022

    May 25, 2022 25:30 AM

    Trend Turn Table:
    Core PCE Friday. FOMC Minutes 14:00.
    Dollar Index 101.75 Turn?

    May 25, 2022 25:32 AM

    Added to NG Energy, Max Resources and Braveheart.

    May 25, 2022 25:36 AM

    Just a thought going forward………………. Climate from Davos……(scum bags)
    and the TARGET GROUPS
    ….Davos 2022: John Kerry says these businesses are ‘taking the lead’ on global climate efforts
    The direct goal is targeting “hard to abate” sectors accounting for 30% of global emissions: aluminum, aviation, chemicals, concrete, shipping, steel, and trucking.

    May 25, 2022 25:18 AM

    I bought more IPT today. No debt and cash equal to 40 percent of its market cap made that an easy decision (just like last week).