Joel Elconin – Thoughts On The Energy Sector, Inflation, Deflation, And A Rotation Back Into Growth
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show and Editor of the PreMarket Prep website, joins us to discuss the energy sector, inflation, deflation, and a potential rotation starting back into growth stocks. We start of with the continued slide lower in most commodities, and that it finally hit the oil prices, and he noted this showed that the pricing up at $120 was impacting the demand side of the equation. With the range of pricing projections we see in the market, Joel is more on the side of expecting oil prices to keep pulling back in the near term, and that the commodities pullback we’ve been seeing should start lowering the CPI readings moving forward.
We noted the high US dollar today, and that really despite all the focus on inflation, that the tide may shifting to a more deflationary backdrop. We wrap up discussing the recent weakness in Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) and the very recent first pop in Cathy Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) may indicate an interest for investors to start rotating out of value and back into growth. We’ll see if this trend builds any momentum as things unfold over the weeks and months to come.
Click here to visit the PreMarket Prep website to follow along with Joel’s market commentary.
What about Bailout QE Money Print version 684 to save the Banks from failing? After all, there is no other priority for the transfer of wealth….or have I misinterpreted things.
The bailout of the banks is cronyism and corruption at it’s finest. No companies be they banks, insurance, GM, Ford, Airlines, whatever should have been “bailed out” in truly free and fair markets. The free market would have sorted it out through shifting consumers, investors, and competition and all of the “too big to fail” nonsense we’ve seen since 2009 after the G.F.C. has been blatant intervention.
Then again, so was the Fed buying $120 Billion a month in bonds to backstop the markets. What is sad is that what should never even exist (central banks) is embraced by so many, and in fact endorsed. It is what it is at this point, but we are in the final throws of the bubble inflating and kicking the can down the road coming to a serious tipping point.
The question should be: Is this all be design to usher in the Great Reset?
One would be foolhardy and naïve to believe otherwise, if they actually did any serious research into the history of central banks, the larger plan by global elites, Agenda21, Agenda2030, the World Economic Forum, and so much more. As a result, none of the things we’ve seen since 1913, 1971, 2009, or the last few years have been much of a surprise when taken in larger context of the long-con being played.
Still, in following the markets and dealing with the gameboard as it is set up, we do our best as individual investors to see the trends that are developing and react accordingly. Good luck to all in their investing, whatever strategy they are employing.
Well, I just wrote the last few weeks that I wanted to get out of AXU for tax loss purposes, and wait 30 days for the wash sale rule, and then get back in, but stated a few times that my one worry was that a larger producer could come in acquire them while they were a wounded animal.
Damn if I didn’t sell AXU the end of last week, and the sure enough, HL swoops in and announces acquiring them today. Of course that’s what happened. Luckily AXU tanked today anyway along with the rest of the PM sector so I was able to buy it back about 10% higher from where I sold it, and will likely just hold it for a bounce or for the full conversion into HL shares, as I’ve already got a HL position. On this news HL sold off over 10%, which was a double 1-2 punch on that one today, but Doc and CalieJoe and a few other commenters had mentioned on the weekend show that Hecla would likely go lower, so it may start getting more attractive to accumulate in it’s own right.
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(HL) Hecla Acquires (AXU) Alexco Resource
July 05, 2022
Personally, I was expecting Alexco to get acquired, but just not by Hecla, so that caught me a bit by surprise.
Here’s what I wrote back to Doc Postma on the blog just last week:
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> Excelsior -Jun 29, 2022 29:53 PM
“Sounds like a good plan Doc and may your trading be prosperous. I’m starting to think taking the tax loss now, then waiting 31 days, and then reinitiating the position may be the best route forward for me with AXU at this point.”
“My fear would be doing that, and then seeing a larger producer come in and scoop them up during that “wash rule” time period for a 30%-50% premium, and thus missing the opportunity to be made whole, but it may be worth that brief time risk to sell now and reposition by late July/early August.”
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With regards to Hecla, I was thinking it much more likely that they were going to make a move on Dolly Varden next, so HL’s move on AXU was a bit of a surprise. However, as previous noted in a number of other posts the insanely low valuation in Alexco as ripe for a big boy moving in on them. As soon as AXU announced stopping milling for the next 5-6 months, it was likely just too good for them to pass up on, and as stated above, it was my worry about trying to get out of position for even 30 day. I certainly can’t blame Hecla or any company from pouncing on Alexco down at these levels, because that is an absolute slam-dunk steal for HL shareholders.
Or as Dave Erfle had quipped about the Gold Standard Ventures (GSV) acquisition by Orla Mining (ORLA), it was a “Take Under.” 😉
I was in GSV and sold it the day the acquisition by ORLA was announced, and then both stocks sold off for 2 weeks, so I repurchased GSV again, but too soon as they’ve both drifted lower together. Still, I may add a bit more to my GSV to allow it to convert over to ORLA when that transaction clears
With AXU I didn’t like timing of selling it last week and then having to buy it back into the bloodbath today, but I’m prepared to add more as well, if both AXU and HL keep sliding lower.
Apparently the last few months have been a few long-awaited takeovers that turned into take-unders.
Which beat up developer or producer will be next for the Take Under Ball?
– Pure Gold by AngloGold Ashanti?
– Kinross by Barrick or Newcrest?
– NovaGold by Barrick?
– Orezone by Endeavour Mining?
– Integra?
– Liberty Gold?
– Wallbridge?
– O3 Mining?
– Dolly Varden?
– Benchmark Metals?
Who has an idea on who the next takeover will be?
Here’s our buddies Goldfingers and Trevor Hall discussing Hecla scooping up Alexco for the take-under:
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Market Commentary on Deflation, Chile and Alexco
Mining Stock Daily – July 5, 2022
“Rob Sinn (aka Goldfinger) and Trevor Hall have a general discussion about the deflationary moves happening in commodity markets today, including violent selling in gold, copper and oil. The two also have a talk about the latest news from Chile and the acquisition of Alexco by Hecla Mining.”
I followed Doc on his nibbles into Alexco. Own some at double or more than buyout price
Ex, I believe you are right about Barrick Gold taking over Kinross. Barrick Gold announced today that they are suing Dixie Gold SYL-DG for $120 million for breach of contract over a deal made on a Red Lake property which is right next door and adjacent to Great Bear’s property. Barrick is positioning itself to be a big player in The Red Lake Mining District. DT
Hi DT. I read your comment and went and looked and yeah, this post had gone to moderation for some reason, but I can’t see why it would. Anyway, I released it for you here, but responded back to you down below. Cheers!
What about Iamgold? It’s down to a buck and change, got a big project nearing completion and looking to be put out of its misery.
Possibly, it could be a takeover candidate, but they’ve had a few challenges with their staff getting attacked in northern Burkina Faso, and the large cost overruns due to inflationary pressures at the huge Cote development project are still a wildcard.
I’m not sure if another larger producer would want to take on that risk until they get a few of those areas more resolved, but possibly. I see the trajectory possibly being more like Argonauts fall from grace since the end of last year due to the cost over-runs… but maybe not quite as pronounced as with AR. AR went down about 90% from the end of last year, where as IAG is down about 60% since April.
Really all of these are just very oversold here, but so is the whole sector, so pick your beat up story I guess. Ha!
I’m sure the larger producers see this and have a few more companies in their crosshairs to snag, but with everything down, including their own share prices, it just makes for a predatory environment where we may see more M&A.
This is when one hopes that IPT is the bellwether it has been proposed to be.
Agreed Dan. Maybe nano-cap bellwether IPT’s cue of bouncing earlier in the day and closing flat, and not getting pounded today like most of the sector is a good sign. We’ll need to see more strength, and more follow through, but it may be suggesting the worst of the move down has played through at this point.
That’s the way I see it… for now, haha. It is good to see it move away from the bottom bolli band with a white candle. Can be a tell if we get a higher high and a higher low on the weekly, IMHO.
+1 Good observations Dan. Fingers are crossed that we see that play out.
It was dead at many lows in recent months but now that has changed. All the ETFs went way below last week’s low today while IPT stayed 4% above last week’s low and finished 10% above it after reaching as much as 23% above it. So maybe it’s telling us the low is near. No company is always a bellwether 100% of the time but IPT shows no sign diverging from its past action as a leader.
It’s worth pointing out (probably again) how it topped in July 2020 while the sector, including SILJ topped in August. Then, many months later when silver and SILJ made new bull trap highs, IPT did not. Like PAAS, it “knew” the breakout wasn’t trustworthy.
Good points Matthew on bellwether stocks in general, and how IPT is often a very good leading indicator for the rest of the mining stocks and a good “canary in the coalmine” as it were.
It is interesting that IPT’s weekly RSI low happened one year ago when it hit 42 cents.
Today’s low happened at the 50% level between fork support and resistance. A move below it would probably send it to .195 (with a guesstimate probability of as much as 80%)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24909554044&a=1199936354
Fwiw, if that fork looked more relevant to action, the probability would easily be at least 80% and probably greater.
Ray Dalio explains why America is entering a horrific financial crisis which is just starting.
Thanks for posting that DT. Ray Dalio has put out a lot of good common sense videos from his platform over the last year or two, and has reiterated those same points in the interviews he’s done. I asked Cory if we should try to get him on the KE Report, but we are likely too small of a site (at least currently) to capture his interest. Still, I think he makes a lot of cogent points, and appreciate the historical references of past economic cycles and patterns that he brings into the discussion around too much money printing, inflation, and currency devaluation.
Hi Ex, I just sent you a post on Barrick Gold suing Dixie Gold ($120 million) for breach of contract for a property that is next to and adjacent to Great Bear’s property in Red Lake. My initial post was scrubbed, I believe that Barrick is looking to be the dominant player in Red Lake and will take over Kinross as you suggest. Barrick also owns shares in Pure Gold, I believe. DT
Hi there DT. Yeah, when Barrick made the move on the two exploration juniors with land on either side of Great Bear’s Dixie project, I was personally convinced they’d be the one to acquire Great Bear. Then when Kinross made the takeover bid, many people (myself included) were initially waiting for the counter-offer from Barrick, but after a few weeks, it became clear it wasn’t happening, and I sold the rest of my GBR for the win to book the profits and rotate them elsewhere.
Then some show interviewed Mark Bristow about if Barrick was interested in taking over Kinross to get to the Dixie property that way, but he responded that the way to go about picking up a good project was not to buy another company’s “Cow manure.” At first I took that as I guess that idea of Barrick taking over Kinross is off the table then…. but on further consideration, it occurred to me that maybe Mark was just trying to take a swipe at Kinross to drive them even lower on market doubt. As a result, I’ve recently gotten back into Kinross last week. Obviously I should have waited, as it’s slid 10% since then, but the thesis for me is that Kinross is way undervalued, and that either Barrick or Newcrest may make a run at them.
I guess Barrick could also go after Pure Gold, but my bet is that it will be AngloGold Ashanti, as they’ve participated in the financings, have the bigger stake, and did the same kind of lender of last resort pattern last year before they acquired Corvus Gold. I guess I should get a position going in Pure Gold again at one point, as we are seeing a wave of “Take Unders” lately.
It makes one think why didn’t Barrick just buy out Dixie Gold, but it must be written in their agreement that Barrick is barred from doing so while a contract is still binding. If you think about it there must be money behind Dixie Gold that is part of their holdings. If you are a successful company like Barrick, with lawyers galore at their disposal they will take the path that offers them the best deal. They are suing for $120 million which is at least 8 times what Dixie is worth. DT
Good questions DT. Yeah, there must be a method to the madness and a larger plan at work in Red Lake.
Well, so far July hasn’t been much more kind than June was for the metals. Pretty fugly out there. So much for some of the enthusiasm some held out for to end June or the second quarter, or to kick off the third quarter.
Gold currently at $1765
Silver at $19.15
Copper at $3.43
Platinum at $853
At least the breakdown in the mining stocks has been fast and furious, with GDX already down at the support levels many stated were down under that $28.50 support, down around $26.
GDX hit $26.49 a few times today, and so many mining stocks (both the good and bad alike) have just been creamed the last few months and even more so recently. With everything so very oversold now, we have to be getting closer to a place where buying support will come in for a bounce.
Another contributing data point of note is that the BPGDM (Gold Mines Bullish Percentage Index), closed today at 13.79. That’s showing the breadth pretty oversold in the sector, and interesting is the exact same level the BPGDM bottomed out at in early 2016…. 13.79.
A turn could actually be very soon, all things considered, and we are definitely in that oversold capitulation stage of the sentiment in PM mining stocks. Wouldn’t it be crazy if the BPGDM bottomed here at 13.79 for a 2nd time?
>> Here’s the chart of BPGDM showing that prior level back in early 2016 and today:
I did some nibbling the end of last week on Thu/Fri, and today on Tue, but I may do a little bit more tomorrow just for at least an oversold bounce.
Well, I bit the bullet and added to about a dozen positions today and used up almost all my remaining dry powder, so now I’m pretty much fully invested.
At this point, I’m prepared to hold through any further weakness and let the chips fall where they may, but at the current valuations we are seeing in the mining stocks, it sure doesn’t feel like I’m overpaying at these current share price levels.
2nd trade in 6 weeks- Started adding SILV 1st of 4 tra @ $5.88. Still 31% cash.
Marty – great trading as always, and that’s an enviable cash position to be in. Really well done sir!
And here I thought I had done well scooping up SILV in May for $6.69… nope… 😉
$5.88 is much better… good on you buddy.
My best pickup of SILV shares were back in March of 2020 during that pandemic crash at both $4.10 on the 13th and $4.70 on the 16th, but I sure hope we aren’t going back down to those levels again, as I’ve added a few tranches at higher levels too.
May your trading be prosperous!
Added to SILV @ 5.53, 2 tranches left
New position in NFGC tranche 1 of 2 – @ $3.96
I finally added a little more SILV today at $5.56 as well. Their costs are industry leading as they spend the balance of this year ramping up into commercial production.
Normally, if a developer has really run up hard leading into first pour, I’ll some or all the position at this point, but in contrast, Silvercrest has pulled back hard for 2 years now, after topping out in Feb 2021 during the #SilverSqueeze phenomenon. Since it is far from being frothy here, I’m just going to hold and maybe keep adding to SILV as they move into commercial production, and that is likely to coincide with rising metals prices later in the year and heading into 2023.
2%+ further upside for UUP/USD looks easy:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p18422040163&a=1098309667
But there’s some resistance about 1.3% above:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=4&mn=11&dy=0&id=p54379848633&a=570974456
Nine Mile results just out, worthy of a look… HIGH grade metal core confirmed. New discovery or old??
On June 14th (last Fed meeting) when silver was about 21…
“Silver could soon be on its way to some obvious lower support levels if we don’t get a reversal this week.”
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=22&id=p77135406222&a=426943004
Also June 14th when GDX was around 31…
“GDX is very close to filling a small daily and weekly gap from January 31st but like silver, it will also probably head significantly lower if there’s no reversal this week.”
As mentioned previously today, I sold Metallic Minerals when I saw the HL deal. I always thought AxU was the better resource and Metallic would be sucked into that property.
Now I need to look at those properties I have that could be taken over for peanuts that have proven a resource. Looks like the potential for a different kind of sam has come to the surface.
Hmmm. I’m looking at that situation with Metallic Minerals a little differently Lakedweller2.
I wasn’t as convinced that Alexco would be the ultimate suitor for Metallic Minerals, as I got the vibe in talking with Greg and Scott from MMG that they were friendly with AXU and open to doing toll milling there or an acquisition at one point, but really that they were more interested in talking to larger producers that could possibly build a stand along mill on their property, or that may take over AXU and have the experience and capital to increase the size of their mill to own the whole Keno Hill district. I believe we asked them their ultimate goals point blank in a few different interviews, and they were open to all 3 scenarios, but hinted a bit that the best value creation would be a larger company taking a strategic stake in them to build their own mill.
Now that Hecla, one of the big boys in the PM space, has made a move on Alexco, it validates the interest in that area by a larger producer, and in contrast to AXU, HL is actually large enough to also acquire MMG, or increase the plant capacity over time, so now I’m actually much more constructive on MMG than ever at this point. That’s just my opinion on things after seeing this news.
Well, I’ve got a call set up with Scott from MMG tomorrow morning, to do an interview and specifically to get their thoughts on this acquisition of their neighbors AXU, so we’ll see how they are looking at things in light of this recent news out of HL. Cheers!
You know more than I ever will … I am completely gun-shy and if anything goes wrong in a neighborhood, I runaway. I also have no faith there are free and fair markets. My first reaction was to sell everything and go to physical. But, that would have been back in January.
That’s a very understandable point of view Lakedweller2, but isn’t that how things always are at bottoms or sentiment lows? You know…
When things seem really ugly, when nobody likes a sector, when everything (the good along with the bad) is selling off hard in the red, and people are folding up shop, isn’t that often the best time to be accumulating?
This is starting to feel more and more like past bottoming periods, and I just mentioned up above in this thread that the BPGDM – the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index closed today at 13.79. (historically that is pretty oversold, and while it has dipped down into the mid 7’s a few times, this is a good place to be accumulating, versus shedding positions.
A turn could actually be much closer than some are expecting, all things considered, and we are definitely in that oversold capitulation stage of the sentiment in PM mining stocks.
Wouldn’t it be crazy if the BPGDM bottomed here at 13.79 for a 2nd time?
>> Here’s the chart of BPGDM showing that prior level back in early 2016 and today:
I had 5 tops in 2021 which were in essence break-evens. I was wanting 2022 to do a little better as our leadership has destroyed the economy. But, we must suffer their failures yet again, before we break free. I am ready to go up a lot now.
Yeah, I hear ya. I’m ready to go up a lot from here as well. As mentioned above, I added to positions today and Thu/Fri last week, and am just about out of dry powder now. I was at 4% funds available, and now down to about 2%. There is a piece of me that just wants to put that last 2% to work this week and complete my final allocation in my trading account (not retirement or savings obviously). That would have me fully deployed here in July in all positions – mostly Gold & Silver stocks and royalty companies, but also Uranium, PGMs, Nickel, Copper, and a few specialty metals. It would be somewhat cathartic to just have all the chips on the table by the end of July and see where they go from there… after trading back and forth so much, and holding this dry powder back. I think I’m ready to just finish my purchasing and say…. “This is close enough to the bottom for me.”
This is definitely not investment advice… and just sharing how I’m viewing things in light of the recent technical trading, breadth readings, sentiment, and macro backdrop.
Personally, I’m ready to just deploy my remaining funds, and really have already started to do that the end of last week and today. Things are in sillyville, now in my opinion, so I’m ready just put my chips on the table and go “all-in” as people so often accuse others of doing. In this case, I may actually just go all-in here with my last 2% and see where things go.
One of the questions I asked myself is should one always have funds available, and at what point would anyone want to to be fully deployed and not still saving some for a rainy day? Is there a level where I’d just go “all-in”? I think for me, we’re finally getting to that point.
The only other 2 times I remember feeling like this was in early 2016 and during the 2020 pandemic crash. If we see things break down just a little further in the metals and miners, then I’m at that stage to finally do my last shopping. At that point I’ll have used my available capital to speculate on in these resource stocks, and will hold through any remaining pain we see in corrective moves.
It’s weird, but that gives me an odd sense of relaxation to get to that point… can’t really explain it.
Again, not something I’m recommending others do, but for me and my current outlook, I feel like now is a good time to buy almost any of the quality mining stocks at a huge discount. Typically, I’m too early on these, so Doc is probably right and they have further to fall, but still I’ll have to joke around my buddy Erik, the Hedgeless Horseman, that even I think these mining stocks are now “cheap.”
I am all in and just tweak things. Today I started by looking at Snowline and was going to do some swaps. However, the attack on silver made me pick up some silver, swap some silver and add to some royalty stocks. Snowline pulled back some but do not feel comfortable adding one that has a pop up in an algo attack in general across the metals.
Yeah, I’ve done some swaps and partial swaps between stocks as well, which is what I refer to as “horse trading” amongst existing companies. Sometimes one has simply held up way better than others and I can sell a winner or only mild loser, to rotate into one that is really beat up.
Other times I play the game of would I rather own company A or company B if I could only one 1 of them? That has helped me reduce down from over 90 companies to now just over 70 companies over the course of 2022, so my positions have become a bit more concentrated in that sense. However, with prices so completely destroyed here in so many mining stocks, I’m still considering doing more horse trading and shedding the more speculative or not as great companies (that still may legitimately have more upside in a rebound) for a few of the more quality companies that I have a higher degree of confidence of surviving and still thriving when the worm turns. I still have plenty of speculative bets in the portfolio, but felt good adding to a few more shares to higher-confidence companies, and have traded a little bit of speculative potential upside, for less potential downside or risk of failure.
As for Snowline, it may have a very bright future, but it already popped a lot today (up 16.7% at the close) and it is more exploration focused, but has a $112 CAD Million market cap in this environment, where there are producers or advanced developers that don’t even have that market cap. For example Impact Silver only has a $41 CAD Million market cap with operating mines and mills paired with huge exploration upside, Santacruz Silver has a $97 CAD million market cap now with multiple mines and mills, Integra Resources has a $78 CAD million market cap with millions of ounces of gold in the ground, economic studies, and multiple projects and targets, or Montage Gold has 4 million ounces of gold defined in their resource estimates, is working towards economic studies and only has a market cap of near $56 CAD million.
So is Snowline really more valuable (sometimes twice as valuable) as all those companies? I don’t think so based on what they’ve delineated so far, and it is mostly the marketing machine behind Crescat companies leading that charge higher. To be clear, I’m not saying it is not worth the market cap it has, and hopefully it goes much higher for investors and that team, as I’m always rooting for people and companies to be successful. What I am saying is the other companies just used as example have a lot more evidence in the ground in resources or in sunk costs and value from mines & mills and seem like a better value at these levels.
Even if we look at something like Wallbridge that has $172 CAD million market cap with 4 million ounces of gold and an amazing land package all around the Detour Lake trend, and Snowline is already nipping at their heals with a $112 CAD million market cap, and they don’t have $4 million ounces of gold in the ground yet. It’s just those kind of disparities we are seeing, and have seen for a few years actually, where there are certain explorers that shine for a moment and get ridiculously high valuation compared to other resource stocks in the space, because they become the flavor of the day. Some are warranted, but many are not. Like should New Found Gold have had a valuation of $1.7 Billion more than almost all the mid-tier gold and silver producers or most larger developers without even having a resource estimate or economic study yet? (probably not… but that didn’t stop speculators from pushing it to nosebleed levels)
Having said that, I’ll take a look at Snowline closer to see what they are onto, as Erik Wetterling gave them a glowing endorsement in our last interview together last week, and obviously they are bucking the trend by rising on a day when most companies were deep in the red, so they must have something good going on. In general though, I’m just not adding a ton of exploration plays into the mix when there is so much obvious value in the ground on deep discount at present.
Hey Ex, you need to go all in, put all your chips on the table and push them forward! LOL! DT😎
Well I went all in today man. I added to about a dozen positions that I like. My chips are on the table now and pushed forward. 🙂
…And its Gone
Recent market activity has made this little clip feel a little less silly and a little more on the nose… 😉
>> And It’s Gone…
The same 60 minute GDX chart that I posted 3 weeks ago remains relevant:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=12&id=t7291542932c&a=1186950834&r=1657056264943&cmd=print
4 hour GDX is oversold and at support:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=240&yr=0&mn=5&dy=16&id=t9883188461c&a=974209713&r=1657056742032&cmd=print
On June 12th when copper was 4.295:
“Copper is heading way below $4.00…”
It has fallen 90 cents since then and is likely going lower before it bounces from its weekly oversold readings.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01547085862&a=642514285
Since topping in March, ASA has now had two drops of about 27%…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASA&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p48778248901&a=984268795
CRB:Silver filled its June 15 gap today and will soon head for much lower levels…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24SILVER&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46739935312&a=1077774311
GSG:Gold found temporary fork support…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GSG%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p41295024898&a=1134311443
3.30 area next for copper…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p58119089780&a=1125517569
That $3.30 level in Copper may be a good spot for support to come in, and play related stocks for a tradable bounce.
Actually Copper just dove down below $3.30 in overseas trading this evening (and got down to $3.27).
Currently red metals futures are back up around $3.34 at the time of writing this, so in that sense, Copper is already there….
QQQ:SILJ filled the rest of its February 7th gap today as it approached resistance.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07447227836&a=1107808877
Interesting close for SILJ today:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p03967315025&a=1199299939
Silver now sits at a zone of significant support after completely retracing its vertical move of 2020.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p99515568023&a=1175896889
Silver fell 68% versus commodities (CRB) in less than two years. Not surprisingly, silver is currently much more appealing than commodities.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24CRB&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12013813946&a=1101509112
I think you are correct…………… JMO
Wow, I was just on a different mining blog seeing people discuss the carnage in Rio2 (RIO) today, down 40% on the day. The selling cascade seemed to be because they didn’t get their approval on the environmental impact assessment… showing why often the ability to get a project permitted and to a degree, jurisdiction risk is just as important as the teams and project. Once again, Chile is not turning out to be a good jurisdiction as it once was, for the last few years and it’s really gone downhill over the last year or so.
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(RIO) Rio2’s Fenix Gold Project EIA is Not Approved
5 Jul 2022
Rio2 Limited (TSXV: RIO; OTCQX: RIOFF) and its Chilean subsidiary, Fenix Gold Limitada announce that the Regional Evaluation Commission which includes 12 governmental institutions has voted for not approving the Environmental Impact Assessment (“EIA”) for its Fenix Gold project in Chile.
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/rio2s-fenix-gold-project-eia-is-not-approved
The Rothschilds own RIO…….. I do believe…….
Well, then they are in the hurt locker as it’s down another 20% today. Yikes!
“blood in the street”…………… 🙂
must be the only connection to the Roth……… lol……
Good one OOTB. Tragic comedy!
You’re thinking of Rio Tinto. The Rothschilds have been involved with it for well over 100 years.
Yes,…….. ditto……RIO TINTO………….
Edmond just recently reduced his stake by 15.22%:
https://fintel.io/so/us/rio/edmond-de-rothschild-holding
interesting…………. what about the other members of the family…. ?
no need to respond……. just interesting….. thanks……..
I thought this news release might be worth mentioning because of Ross Beaty’s financing with Lumina Gold. I’m not sure I like Ecuador as a jurisdiction, or the number of shares out, but Mr. Beaty has a reputation, and Lumina has been getting great drill results. DT
I just had another post scrubbed on Lumina Gold, I guess I Robot has deemed me to be persona non grata. DT
Hi DT. When I saw your comment it caused me to go check and you’re correct, for some reason it got sent to moderation by I Robot indeed. Ha! Not sure why it happened. Did you change your IP address or reset your network or anything like that?
Thanks for your posts and sharing your insights and that link. Keep on keeping on. Cheers!
Hi Ex, there has been no change here. The robots know I have them figured out, since the 1950’s they have been on my radar. The mad machines are playing catch up with me. LOL! DT
Brixton, BBB, awesome drill results…
Hi Dan, it looks like sell the news even with such stellar drill results! DT
I think that selling is crazy at this point, those are the type of results that I have been waiting for, I bought more at 13 cents.
It looks like Brixton got a nice pop on good volume on the drill news. Congrats Dan and others still invested. I sold my Brixton back in early 2021 at much higher levels, a bit disenchanted with the focus of the management team, but happy to see that they got a nice intercept here with the drill bit.
I cannot post charts into my browser…That is a weekend fix…My comment is that the FED seems to be doing a good job…lmao…If deflation of assets is a happy outcome and it is….The inflation is absolutely lurking…When?….Is it simply the cycles working against gold moving up?…possibly…Weekly cycle chart low is due early September through late October…eg average would be 12 weeks from previous weekly low on 5/16/22…glta
hyperinflation appears more likely due to extraneous non-economic factors…If the nation experiences a population die off many adverse events unfold…The GDP crashes if we can even survive economically as a nation…The debt remains…Printing fiat is the only option to meet those obligations and many others…Of course confidence crashes…Hyperinflation right here in USA…
I have always believed that the huge market forced sell down like occurred in 1929 is coming. Inflation first that is what we are seeing followed by Deflation. This time it will be much worse as America is the biggest debtor nation the World has ever seen. They have incompetent leaders and an emerging superpower, The Chinese, and their allies The Russians. The red scare America has been pushing since 1917 has not materialized until now. Be careful of what you wish for! DT
Hyperinflation is always the worst of all worlds since it comes with economic collapse, collapse of asset prices and skyrocketing consumer prices. Hyperinflation and high inflation are driven by very different environments.
Whether the US sees hyperinflation or not, there’s no way around the fact that living standards are going to fall sharply and for many, catastrophically.
Unfortunately, few understand economics (especially economics grads of our Keynesian schools) so few can see how the planners’ actions suggest that a much weaker economy and currency is the desired outcome. Main street is in their crosshairs to help public-private cronies steal market share. FDR did the same thing while the scared and clueless masses snoozed. Of course, cronyism has ruled under every president since the creation of our Marxist Federal Reserve. We’ve obliviously been paying for our own destruction and enslavement every step of the way.
“Wheat for Rubles!” ~ The Duran
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kSXsWLgaQY
Hey larry………….. George Webb is out with the next pandemic info……
ok Jerry…if you could post the link maybe at orphaned section?…otherwise i look it up no troubles…glta and thanks….
ok……… it is dated June 22 ,…..he is in Europe
could not find that on you tube…is ok…
Gold in liquidation mode. Doc any chance of a two for the price of one sale with these sector equities so I can take some advantage to even my score with remaining 50% cash. LOL
By far the biggest volume of ’22 for Brixton:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p91842797888&a=948101665
Now it’s the biggest volume in 3 years.
The TSX-V:GLD is getting ready for a big turn:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=9&dy=0&id=t2077494658c&a=1200469980&r=1657127612693&cmd=print
oh yes, just as predicted everything coming up roses
Just came across a chart that I posted in December. Here it is unchanged, exactly as posted:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54563561216&a=1075655291
While big safe GDX and the rest of the ETFs make new lows each day, little risky IPT hasn’t come close to doing so in loonies or vs GDX. That leadership is typical IPT bellwether action.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AGDX&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20542868895&a=1199307650
XAU:GLD at strong support zone:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3AGLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=t3068735789c&a=1200491158&r=1657131112021&cmd=print
1700 to 1680 tomorrow?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p39834010789&a=1104018722
Deflation to Trigger Fed’s 180
David Brady – Sprott Money – June 30, 2022
“While everyone is focused on inflation, it is becoming increasingly clear that we’re on the cusp of deflation in everything but necessities such as food and energy. It is also convenient for the Fed that they exclude the most important factors for consumers in their analysis of inflation and its influence on monetary policy. Simply put, the Fed’s measure of inflation including everything but food and energy is going south in a big way soon. This plus the recession already under way and rising unemployment—jobless claims just hit a five-month high—will force the Fed to reverse course to rate cuts and QE sooner rather than later, perhaps as soon as the Jackson Hole symposium from August 25th to the 27th.”
“How do we know deflation is coming? We only have to look at soaring inventory-to-sales data from major retailers in the U.S. and recent announcements from Walmart, Target, and now Restoration Hardware.”
“Retailers loaded up on inventories based on soaring demand in 2021, aided by monetary and fiscal stimulus. Now interest rates have jumped, especially mortgage rates, and the checks in the mail to Americans have been spent months ago. Savings have disappeared and credit cards are maxed out. Consumer demand for discretionary items like appliances, furniture, and other home improvement items has collapsed as a result. It’s no coincidence that Lumber prices have fallen 65% from their peak in March. People are spending whatever income they have left on necessities like food, gas, heating, electricity, rent, and mortgage payments. The retailers now must get rid of products gathering dust on their shelves and in their warehouses. They plan to slash prices on these items to clear those inventories. Summer sales are imminent, and the discounts could be jaw dropping.”
“This comes at a time when core inflation data, excluding food and energy prices, have already peaked and have been falling for the past two months on a year-over-year basis.”
“With the rationale for monetary tightening unraveling as the economy heads south while unemployment goes north and disinflation is under way, the Fed’s current policy is running out of time. The Jackson Hole symposium in August could signal the pending pivot back to rate cuts and QE, just as Powell did in December 2018. By then, the discounts will begin to show up in the core inflation numbers. A sharp drop in core CPI or PCE will make it hard for the Fed to continue its tightening policy but much easier to change course. Whenever it happens, everything goes ballistic, imho—everything but the dollar—and Gold, Silver, and the miners will be the biggest beneficiaries.”
“In conclusion, when you see those summer sales roll out and discounts that give you sticker shock, you know that the days of monetary tightening are coming to an end and the Fed’s next 180 is imminent. In essence, deflation will send the metals and miners to new highs, imho.”
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Deflation-to-Trigger-Feds-180-David-Brady-June-30-2022