Dave Erfle – Potential Paths Forward To Putting In A Precious Metals Bottom

Dave Erfle, Founder of the Junior Miner Junky, joins us to outline some of the macroeconomic data and technical levels he is watching that could be the catalyst for putting in a bottom in the precious metals sector.   Of course, speculation on how far and how high the Fed rate hiking cycle will go is still a large focus. We also look at technical pricing support levels in gold, silver, GDX, GDXJ, that are within range to see at least a short-term bounce from oversold levels. However, Dave concedes that lower levels and a “scare you out” corrective move are still a potentiality.  We contrast similarities and difference to prior bear market periods, but ultimately we are in a much different macro backdrop than any time in the last few decades.  


We also discussed why the mining stocks haven’t really outperformed over longer time periods the last few decades, and this is precisely why to make money in this volatile and cyclical sector, one needs to buy the dips and sell the rips in the mining stocks. Dave did a great job of building up cash and is starting to add to some positions, but he is still holding back a lot of that cash to be able to seize upon further drops in valuations in the junior mining stocks.



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    Jul 07, 2022 07:41 PM

    Metals And Mining Stocks Have ‘Crashed Back Down To Earth’, Strategist Says

    Ines Ferré – Yahoo Finance – Thu, July 7, 2022

    “Base metals rallied on Thursday, but their downward trend over the last several weeks has been flashing recessionary signals. Copper futures touched a 19-month low this week amid concerns of a recession. The metal used in everything from jewelry to motors and electrical wiring is down about 19% year to date.”

    “Doctor” Copper is often used to gauge the overall health of the economy.

    “Weak commodity prices help ease inflation fears,” Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index, wrote in a note on Thursday. “However, commodities are on the rise again on news that China is considering a $200 billion stimulus program.”

    Jul 07, 2022 07:43 PM

    Gold Stocks Enter the Contrarian Dream Zone

    David Erfle – Friday July 1st, 2022

    During the European Central Bank live-streamed event from Portugal, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was “running against the clock to beat inflation.” Fed policy makers have no choice but to keep raising interest rates to achieve this, although there is no guarantee that it can provide a soft landing for the economy, Powell said.

    “Is there a risk we would go too far [with rate hikes]?” Powell stated. “Certainly, there’s a risk. The bigger mistake to make, let’s put it that way, would be to fail to restore price stability.” The U.S. has experienced continuously higher inflation for more than a year, and it would be “bad risk management” to just assume that those longer-term inflation expectations “will remain anchored indefinitely in the face of persistent high inflation,” Powell added.

    “Overall, recession talk has grown as U.S. data continues to disappoint and commodity pricing responds to deliberate Fed-induced demand destruction. And as the world’s largest central bank continues to make adjustments to its “unconditional” fight for price stability, recession risks are getting more visible in the daily macro data.”

    Jul 07, 2022 07:46 PM

    Political Changes Boost Risk For Miners In Latin America

    Cecilia Jamasmie – July 7, 2022

    “A rising demand to participate in the revenues from natural resources, tougher environmental protection rules, and changes to laws are increasing risks for mining and energy companies across Latin America, even in countries once considered safe investment destinations, a new study shows.”

    Jul 07, 2022 07:50 PM

    Gold To Remain Relevant As Hedging Asset In H2 Despite Headwinds – July 7, 2022

    “Despite headwinds created by rising interest rates, the strategic and tactical role of gold will likely remain relevant to investors during the second half of 2022, particularly while uncertainty stays elevated, according the World Gold Council (WGC).”

    “In its mid-year outlook report, the WGC says despite expectations of more rate hikes by global central banks, many of these hawkish policy expectations are already priced into the market, and continued inflation and geopolitical risks will likely sustain demand for gold as a hedge.”

    “Underperformance of stocks and bonds in a potential stagflationary environment may also be positive for gold,” the WGC adds.

    Jul 07, 2022 07:54 PM

    Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (07/07/2022)

    #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts – Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum

    Jul 08, 2022 08:17 AM

    If Inflation Doesn’t Rapidly Dissipate, Gold Prices Will Prove Dramatically Undervalued

    Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (07/07/2022)

    “Volatility in the markets this year has largely been driven by the rise in inflation. So if rapidly rising price pressures are going to quickly dissipate, taking inflation back below 2%, then perhaps the moves in markets this year will be seen in hindsight as, “filled with sound and fury, signifying nothing,” to quote Shakespeare. Certainly, this is what markets are still discounting even after their recent ructions. Equity prices remain extremely elevated while gold prices remain relatively depressed. Episodes of rising inflation typically see just the opposite.”

    “Therefore, if inflation proves more durable than markets currently discount, the recent volatility may be merely prelude to a more significant repricing across a number of asset classes. In fact, the level of CPI today already suggests that gold, relative to equities, may be just about as undeservedly cheap as it was a half century ago, the last time inflation really became a problem. And if inflation remains elevated, gold prices could have a terrific amount of upside ahead, especially relative to stock prices.”

    Jul 08, 2022 08:23 AM

    Gold price in neutral territory as U.S. economy created 372K jobs in June

    Neils Christensen – Friday July 08, 2022

    “Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said 372,000 jobs were created in June. The data significantly beat expectations economists were forecasting job gains of around 260,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was in line with expectations holding steady at 3.6%.”

    “The latest economic data does not provide a lot of good news for gold investors; however, the precious metal is holding in neutral territory for the day in initial reaction to the labor market report. August gold futures last traded at $1,736.40 an ounce, down 0.19% on the day.”

    “The gold market is taking the new momentum in the labor market in stride as it continues to test long-term support just above $1,730 an ounce.”

    Jul 08, 2022 08:38 AM

    (VZLA) Vizsla Silver – Step Out Drilling at Panuco Expands the San Antonio Vein Along Strike and Down Dip

    July 6, 2022

    • CO-22-51 returned 992 g/t AgEq over 6.40 mTW (621 g/t silver and 5.76 g/t gold)
    • CO-22-53 returned 281 g/t AgEq over 7.50 mTW (213 g/t silver and 1.15 g/t gold)
    • CO-22-54 returned 676 g/t AgEq over 4.50 mTW (549 g/t silver and 2.29 g/t gold)
    • CO-22-56 returned 671 g/t AgEq over 2.00 mTW (355 g/t silver and 4.75 g/t gold)

    Jul 08, 2022 08:25 AM

    The only way inflation can be cured by The Fed in the near term is to lie about “all data”. They want to inflate away as much debt as they can before a reset as they can’t cover the Government or Bank debt in the Real World. The “alternative universe” must continue.

    Jul 08, 2022 08:43 PM

    Fake FED on Freaky Friday……………… Liars……. who in their right mind believes anything the FAKE FED has to say……….. been that way since Briefcase Allen Greenspin………..

      Jul 08, 2022 08:27 PM

      Agreed OOTB. They continually say one thing and then do another, constantly flip-flopping, and have openly bold-faced lied to questions from congress or the media. Hard to take anything say seriously; however, the policies that they actually implement carry a heavier hand in the markets.