Weekend Show – Investment Opportunities In Markets, Metals Stocks, Energy and Oil Stocks
Welcome to KE Report Weekend Show! On this Weekend’s Show we focus on true investment opportunities and ideas in specific sectors. It’s now accepted that a broad bear market is underway. There will be counter trend rallies but as long as money is being drained from the system the downtrend will continue for the time being.
Please keep in touch by emailing us at Fleck@kererport.com and shad@kereport.com. It’s been a bit tougher to get new companies on the show (it being a bear market and all) it helps us to reach out to the companies you all want to see on the show if you email us.
- Segment 1 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager kicks off the show by providing his investing ideas for US markets, commodities, including oil, gold, silver, copper and the tech sector. Dana has been very accurate with his market calls recently. Click here to keep up to date with Dana’s market strategies.
- Segment 2 – This is a replay of Friday’s Editorial with Dan Steffens President of the Energy Prospectus Group. We focus on the energy sector with Dan sharing a wide range of stocks he likes. Click here to learn more about the Energy Prospectus Group.
- Segment 4 – Jayant Bhandari, Private Investor is back to continue our ongoing discussions on jurisdictions for resource companies. We focus on Latin America including the well known countries as well as some that don’t get the attention they should.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Big Ridge Gold – 10 More Drill Holes Released From The Hope Brooke Gold Project
- TriStar Gold – $5millon Financing With Auramet Closed and Drilling Stating Back At Castelo de Sonhos
- Altiplano Metals – An Introduction To This Small Scale Copper Producer In Chile That Just Received It’s Processing Permit
- Guanajuato Silver – Acquiring 100% Of Great Panther’s Mexican Assets, Operations Expanding To 5 Mines and 3 Production Facilities
- Allied Copper – Magnetic Survey Results Leading Up To Drill Program This Month and A Discussion On Valuation
- Mako Mining – Optimizing Gold Production Output At The San Albino Mine And High-Grade Drill Results
- Minera Alamos – Surface Rights Executed At Cerro De Oro, Santana Ramping Up To Commercial Production
- Metallic Minerals – Exploration Update At The Keno Silver Project And The Significance Of The Alexco Takeover By Hecla For The Keno Silver District
- CO2 Lock Corp – Introducing The New CEO, Cooper Qinn, And Big Picture Vision For This New Company
- Labrador Gold – Recapping The Highest Grade Gold Intercept At The Kingsway Project
- Trigon Metals – Operational Update, Moving Toward Commercial Production, Silver Stream Update and Webinar Preview For Tuesday 1pm PT
Thanks for sharing Thomas. I always get a chuckle thinking about Frank, living in a trailer on Texada Island, playing Huck Finn! And then off to Aldergrove raising hell as a teen.
Thomas – Thanks for posting the Frank G. video that Tommy over at Ceo.ca made, along with I’m sure some talented film people from Lionsgate Films, (since Frank would have access to that camera and editing talent and equipment). He’s an interesting entrepreneur, and has been involved with a few different mining companies and in addition to Goldcorp, there were Leagold, and more recently Fiore Gold before Calibre took them over the end of last year. Now he’s into Aris Gold along with that crew. He was also spot on that too much money printing creates high inflation.
Do not forget his association with the CLINTONS……….. 🙂
But Giustra, who remains a Lionsgate board member, also runs a charitable foundation with former U.S. president Bill Clinton, the Clinton Giustra Enterprise Partnership,
Yep. There’s that whole aspect as well, and the Uranium One connection that Frank and Ian had with the offloading of US uranium assets to Russia with the Clintons involvement. He was one of many supporting the Clinton Foundation in a “pay to play” fashion for their influence. However, in listening to Frank in many other interviews, he does seem like he legitimately does try and do some good for charity with his capital, volunteers a lot to help charities, and has been a philanthropist to a number of causes, as he has discussed those periodically in other interviews he’s done.
These days though, Frank is more interested in his Olive Oil line of products and cooking, and even at the end of that video he cooked Tommy a meal of pasta and splashed his olive oil on it for his product to get a name drop. A friend of mine was working on developing a cooking show where they discussed resource stocks and mining stocks, and I encouraged him to reach out to Franky G, as I’ve heard he is one heck of a chef and would likely be game.
I am interested to see where Frank and Ian go with developing Aris Gold (ARIS). I’ve traded into and out of it a few times now last year and this year, and recently had a nice profit in it and sold it the second week of June, but am looking to get back into it again once some other positions appreciate some more and I’ve got more trading profits to play with. Currently, ARIS has held up much better than most other gold stocks, so I felt the there was more immediate upside in positioning in other names.
Also, I’m excited to see what Calibre Mining (CXB) will do with Frank’s old company’s assets from Fiore Gold (F) in Nevada, now that they were acquired the end of last year and finalized on in January of this year.
You forgot the connection with the Haiti scam….. I will not go into it,…… but, …… Frank has not paid his dues, nor restitution for CRIMES he and CLinton did………..real simple……….
Cook the books……… You will know them by their fruits……….
Dollar Index : Summer 2022 : Fibo March : ◄ 27.2% ◆ 38.2% ◆ 50% ►
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/07/dollar-index-summer-2022.html
QQQ Target: https://postimg.cc/mhZR1xXt
Fulfills Tom O’Brien “Three-Gap Play”!
I listened to the discussion with Jayant Bhandari, I was interested in what he might say about Bolivia as a jurisdiction for mining companies. Although Bolivia has a long history of mining and is very prominent in Latin America, surprisingly it’s name was not even mentioned in the interview by Cory, Shad, or Jayant. I can understand not talking about Venezuela, but Bolivia getting passed over. HMMM! One of my favorite companies Eloro Resources is hitting big time in exploration in Bolivia, so I was a little miffed! DT😢
Hi DT. Sorry about not discussing Bolivia, but we just ran out of time and had also planned on discussing Guyana because there are a number of new companies working there as well. Then there were also Paraguay and Uruguay that we didn’t get to either, that also have a few mining companies working there. We had a rough idea of the plan, but just went where the conversation took us, and got to as many countries in Latin America as came up in the chat from each other. Really I had hoped to loop back around in a bigger way to Mexico once again near the end, even though we touched on in the prior discussion with Jayant on North America. Mexico is like the gateway from North America into Central America, and one of the prime movers in Latin America along with Brazil.
I agree with you though that Bolivia is a solid mining jurisdiction to consider, with a long history of mining for Silver and the Base Metals, and along with Eloro Resources that you mentioned, a few more that come to mind are New Pacific Metals, Andean Precious Metals, and Silver Elephant just to name a few.
OTM GDX call options would be ‘golden’
with PM short covering rally.
Some day soon?
Countertrend possibility:
Gold to ~1697 by Wednesday.
GDX holds above July 6th low.
CPI/PPI ignites short covering.
Boutros target is 1682.
Bottom (for now) 1708. Enjoy the ride!
‘We Appear To Be Living In An Unproductive Bubble’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (07/09/2022)
If Inflation Doesn’t Rapidly Dissipate, Gold Prices Will Prove Dramatically Undervalued
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (07/06/2022)
Jay Be Nimble, Jay Be Quick to Induce a Gold Reversal Candlestick
David Erfle – Friday July 8th, 2022
“With the “barbaric relic” being sold down 11 of the previous 12 trading sessions before producing a weak bounce on Thursday, a precious metal’s sector analyst recently touting $2,600 gold before year-end is now predicting $1,300 during the same time-span. And yet another opined this week that gold stocks are “too dreadful to touch now,” despite being grossly oversold. Simply put, uber-bullishness happens near significant tops, and uber-bearishness is generally an indication of a significant bottom being formed.”
“Meanwhile, it’s important to consider this recent gold uber-bearishness is taking place with the gold price still nearly $100 above its sharply rising 200-week moving average at $1652. A test of this closely followed line of technical support would be a normal correction during a healthy bull market in any commodity.”
“As silver guru David Morgan has stated in the past, precious metal stocks will either scare you out, or wear you out. Well, the current miner correction has graced its participants with both a “wear you out” phase, followed by a “scare you out” finale that could reach its conclusion within the next few weeks.”
https://mailchi.mp/948e01519a8f/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1601058
Ex, I often times am bemused by these “analysts” calling out numbers for the gold price—they are consistently wrong especially those that reverse constantly. The odds of seeing $1300 gold is just as low as seeing $2600 gold this year–I would love to see $1300 gold—it would be one of those opportunities to load up on the metal that happens only rarely. I do know I’ll be purchasing a nice position in the metal itself for the first time in a long time when I think the metal has bottomed in this current cyclical bear market.
Agreed Doc. Many of these financial institutions or economic pundits just throw out these wild round numbers for shock value, that have no well thought out technical thesis and so they are just garbage numbers. They aren’t using lateral pricing support levels, or trend lines, or moving averages , or Fibonacci extensions or retracements, or really anything to come up with these wild guesses.
Remember Harry Dent throwing out $900, then $700 gold a few years back as right around the corner?
Remember back in 2015, 2016, 2017 when Bo Polony kept saying “Next stop $2000 gold!” when it was nowhere close to that, then he kept ratcheting it higher $2,500 gold $5,000 gold is imminent as the market crash was always staring us right in the face. That was 5-7 years ago, and gold did finally get over $2000 in 2020 coming out of the pandemic market crash, and the market is finally correcting now but anyone listening to him and his calls would have been so wrong-footed for so long.
Those kinds of extreme bears and extreme bulls throwing out silly price levels just to challenge peoples views of where the metals prices are currently, and their calls always being imminent and much closer that people expect, end up doing far more harm than good in the PM sector, and are always divorced from where gold actually is at and where it could realistically move to next in price.
>> I believe the point Dave Erfle was making about that particular person in his Friday afternoon article was the sentiment change in the PM space in such a short amount of time, and that earlier in the year that analyst he referenced was calling for $2,600 gold by year-end, and now that guy has flip-flopped and is calling for $1,300 gold this year.
As you pointed out, both are ridiculous numbers that aren’t attached to anything substantive, and seriously – why would anyone take his $1,300 gold call seriously, when he so royally botched the $2,600 call?
Too funny! 🙂
The other hit piece that Dave Erfle was referencing in his editorial on how bad the sentiment is now in the sector was this whack-job of a article proclaiming that “Precious Metals Too Dreadful To Touch Now” 😉
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Precious Metals Too Dreadful To Touch Now
By Tim Knight – Jul 07, 2022
https://www.investing.com/analysis/precious-metals-too-dreadful-to-touch-now-200626820
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Play close attention to his initial point being based on how things have done in the miners using the all time high in gold and the massive peak in mining stocks seen in 2011 to measure from as his thesis point. (Classic worst case scenario starting point… Haha! no bias there mate!)
He’s using a straight line from an extreme high to an extreme low as his rationale, to show you can’t make money in this sector and shouldn’t touch it. Conveniently he failed to mention Gold putting in the major bottom in Dec 2015, and the mining stocks in Jan 2016 and the large PM move higher since then, as that would immediately debunk his thesis. He also failed to mention the dozen good tradable rallies over the last 6 years since the larger PM bull market started, and I doubt he’d have ever bought any of those dips or sold any of those rips. Oh what a surprise…. LOL!
The reality is that most people bought and sold all kinds of mining stocks or even metals exposure at all different times and all different prices over the last decade, and didn’t go all in at the peak in Sept of 2011. That kind of starting point is pure bias and so who gives a crap if that ding-dong thinks the space is now too dreadful to touch? He clearly doesn’t understand the sector, it was disingenuous, and he is missing the point that this correction and weakness in the PM sector is actually the time when you want to be buying, not selling or sitting it out.
This is exactly like the kinds of people Erik Wetterling discussed in his interview earlier this week that keep using the recent all-time high in Gold in August 2020 as their starting point to measure performance of gold mining stocks to present as their “proof” that you can’t make money in the sector. Again, that is classic cherry picking and worst case scenario thinking, along with being insanely biased and flawed logic.
Sure if people piled into the sector during August of 2020 and then didn’t do anything but hold onto losers the last 2 years, then yeah, in that completely unlikely example, that would be ugly. However, that is just a classic Strawman argument, because obviously most market participants didn’t do anything like that. Look, it is important to look at how things trend from major lows and major highs, and intermediate lows and intermediate highs, for pricing targets and larger trends, but to make it seem like this is when people actually got positions and to use it as evidence for why people had to lose money and couldn’t have made money over that same time period are garbage comments.
Constantly framing one’s global statement about the sector or mining stocks by only highlighting one scenario (people that bought the top in August of 2020 in the metal or miners and then just held and rode them down) is simply a sloppy biased sector basher. Again most investors were in long before then at much lower levels and may have sold or bought again many many times over the last 2 years at totally different price points.
There were so many other periods of time that could be measured to show multi-bagger returns, and why one can make such larger returns so much more quickly than just hiding in out in general equities index funds. There are times in the PM space where one can double, triple, quadruple, or more their money in just a 3-8 month period. I didn’t see that highlighted in that guys argument, or anyone that likes to pick tops to start measuring from down to lows and act like that is legitimately what everyone did. It’s nonsense.
Just like investing in all sectors, and all stocks, it totally depends on what price someone bought at, and then what price they sold it at, and if they only did it once or hundreds of times. To assume there was only one potential trade is the height of misdirection and misunderstanding.
Normally we are close to the bottom, if crazy numbers are thrown in?
The overwhelmingly bearish sentiment towards the sector is indicating we are getting close to the bottom, and people assuming things are just going to fall out of bed is what happens every time. For people to be entertaining $1300 Gold is a pretty good contrarian indicator. People like to extrapolate out the recent past and assume nothing will change, but that is not how markets work and is the very essence of what creates contrarian opportunities.
Personally, I added to about 2 dozen positions this week as the risk/reward ratio is getting more and more attractive, and sure didn’t feel like I was overpaying for most mining companies. Could the corrective move in the metals go on for a few more weeks or even months? Sure. Could the 2 dozen PM stocks I just added to go down even further as a result? Sure they could.
The environment this week just really reminded me so much of the Dec 2015/Jan 2016 period, and the fall 2018 period, and the pandemic crash in March of 2020, when everyone was avoiding the sector, and even investors supposedly bullish the sector were hesitant to buy, cowering in cash, or flat out shunning and selling the sector. Each of those time periods it felt very difficult to be purchasing stocks and each time it proved to be one of the best times to have been accumulating. This week buying stocks on Tuesday and Wednesday and Friday felt very similar those prior times accumulating into the bottoming periods. Right after pulling the trigger on the adds, the buyers remorse kicked in and I felt like an idiot for buying so many gold and silver miners. It compounded the doubt when most people we talked to were expecting lower prices, still expect more pain to come, definitely weren’t buying, and many were selling or going to cash. I see people in company chat rooms on different forums like ceo.ca, seeking alpha comment sections, youtube videos, twitter feeds, steve penny’s new forum with many newer and older investors abandoning the stocks that they loved 1-2 years ago, or even 6 months ago. This is precisely the kind of backdrop and sentiment I remember at each of the other key bottoms.
Another contributing data point of note is that the BPGDM (Gold Mines Bullish Percentage Index), closed Wednesday at 13.79. That’s showing the breadth in the sector is pretty oversold, and interestingly enough, is the exact same level the BPGDM bottomed out at in early 2016…. 13.79.
A turn could actually be very soon, all things considered, and we are definitely in that oversold capitulation stage of the sentiment in PM mining stocks.
>> Here’s the chart of BPGDM showing that prior level back in early 2016 and today:
Uganda Discovers Gold Deposits Worth 12 Trillion US Dollars
The Business Standard – 04 July, 2022
“In a bid to boost the country’s economy, the Ugandan government has licensed Wagagai gold mining company, a Chinese firm to start producing gold products in Busia district.”
https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/africa/uganda-discovers-gold-deposits-worth-12-trillion-usd-452806
IPT gained almost 10 percent versus GDX this week after hitting February 2016 levels vs GDX last week.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AGDX&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=t8357247938c&a=1199307650&r=1657393594080&cmd=print
The TSX-V vs CRB went 23% below the 2020 crash low to (by far) its lowest level ever.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX%3A%24CRB&p=M&yr=18&mn=5&dy=0&id=t8237413429c&a=1191117099&r=1657393967280&cmd=print
The pain will begin in earnest on Monday.
Everything will be selling off.
If you haven’t sold by now and gone into cash you will wish you had.
The rate hike at the end of this month will make things even worse.
The dollar will SOAR to levels you would have though unimaginable, thanks to the rate hikes and the plunging Euro. What we are seeing is the death of the Euro, it’s over for that phoney baloney currency.
SELL NOW!!!!!!!
CASH!!!!!!!
Joe, being a distinguished member of the poster investors on The Ker Report, “when I look up at the sky, I do not see a cloud anywhere!” LOL! DT! 👀😎😉👍✔
The loonie just put in a triple bottom (a move to 80ish technically needed for confirmation) at the confluence of three long term moving averages which are now in bullish order for the first time in about 9 years. The first week of the triple bottom ended with a bullish hammer and so did the final week (this week). The big picture setup hasn’t looked this good since at least 2004, never mind the jonsyl around here.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20657526934&a=1096202169
Oh there you go again. Have to be careful with my response as I may get Ex upset again for being discourteous. However seeing as you ask. You’ve had the same wisdom for more than a year.
Yes, definitely the case, the loonie will eventually eclipse 80. I have no doubt that will be the case.
Those canadian snowbirds keep hanging on to your calls while suffering exchange rate difference. I’ll keep them posted as hope springs eternal, and just maybe this third low will be the charm as they say.
On September 30, 2021 at 9:45 pm,
Matthew says:
I bet the Canadian dollar has bottomed and will confirm the big double bottom. It will probably easily hit 90+ in the next move but might stall around 86 and even 83 on the way. Longer term, I think it will achieve its 111.00 P&F price objective if not more.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p27911433845&a=1035069495
Matthew
Feb 25 14 hours ago
Yesterday’s plunge and bull hammer marked the end of the loonie’s 5 week decline.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80796348151&a=976992598Today was a huge buying opportunity for the gold/silver miners and not cause for alarm. I remain just as bullish the Canadian dollar as I have been and a rising USD index doesn’t change that since the buck is primarily rising against the euro which is extremely overweighted in the index.
Tomorrow is likely to be good for the metals and the miners as well as the loonie.
After more than a year, it’s also good to see you are finally on the same page as Doc, looking for more gold weakness before the great rally that bails all the bagholders out.
Funny, you put multiple links in your post after being told repeatedly that that’s how you get sent to moderation yet you still think you’re being censored. 🤪
Regarding the loonie, as I said, never mind the jonsyl around here. The bullish big picture remains PERFECTLY intact and the lows that I pointed out in your examples did result in material moves higher just like the summer 2018 low for gold that I identified while gold was under 1200 and Doc remained bearish as usual. You and Doc never call a low of any kind, short term or long term, even well after the fact. It’s “sideways to down” forever!
Hopefully you’re clear about the fact that the current low still needs to prove itself. If it fails, the loonie could easily go below 74.
So the loonie in fact didn’t put in the triple low. Loonie should go up but then again may also go down to another low. I get it.
I think it’s a low that will hold but clearly added that a move to 80ish technically is needed. Simple.
Interesting action from copper this week; look at that close just above 6.5 year fork support:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=6&mn=9&dy=0&id=p79921881874&a=551528662&r=1657398695676&cmd=print
The decent bounce makes sense considering the multiple weekly and monthly supports that were reached/tested. Among them were the 20 year uptrend support, big Schiff fork support and the 50 month MA…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=t4969692137c&a=537266072&r=1657401836446&cmd=print
Snooping around Hecla(HL) website and noticed a map of Hecla properties, which is a map of N. America with HL sites in all the finest jurisdictions. That map is a beautiful thing. They also mine alot of gold and are opening up an old area north of Spokane in KER neck of the woods.
Yeah, agreed Terry. Hecla has a very impressive roster of projects and land holdings, and they are now North America’s largest Silver producer. Now that they are taking over Alexco, they are adding a world class high-grade silver district to their asset base, and I believe that they got a great deal scooping those up during a bottoming cycle in the PM mining stocks.
I have full confidence that by next year, Keno Hill is going to be another cash cow for Hecla, and will only expand their silver production footprint even more. I believe Keno Hill is supposed to produce 4 million ounces of silver equivalent next year, but I have a feeling that in the years to come that Hecla will be able to up that number… and they got rid of the silver stream that Wheaton Precious Metals had on that asset as part of this deal, which was quite impressive.
Agreed Gentlemen, Hecla is an interesting company, I feel they would be rewarded more handsomely if they also had a listing on The Toronto Stock Exchange. Canadians aren’t allowed to own American stocks in their Tax Free Savings Account. They should get a dual listing where the mining action really counts in Canada, that with their New York Listing would see an upward price movement for them. DT
Yeah, it would be nice to see Hecla have a dual listing to allow Canadians to trade the stock as well. I guess they figure they get enough liquidity from just US investors, but it seems like they’d get so much additional volume with a 2nd listing on the TSX.
EX and Matthew will definitely relate to this link…..as will all of the rest of us…Writing is a life of truth…connection…..exploration…..freedom……Nice little essay by Jon…glta
Nice. Thanks Larry for posting that link for us to review on the spirit of writing… and thanks for writing regularly on this blog, as we appreciate all the insights shared by folks here on the KE Report forum of ideas.
My experience is that writing regularly is cathartic and gets one in touch with their inner beliefs and determination in a way that just casually talking to others doesn’t. It is that inner dialog coming from one’s depths and then being shared with others trapped in The Matrix as he was musing. I particularly liked this passage from Jon in that link you posted:
“Faith, self-belief, and determination are wellsprings of a writer. And when faith falters, determination is the key. You’re going to write, no matter what, come hell or high water. That works.”
Sometimes that is precisely how I feel regarding the markets, and “writing it out” helps me crystalize my thinking on a subject. In addition, writing out my thoughts or response to market moves or a company’s news often reveals something important to me on that issue, and often causes me to do further due diligence after the fact. Lastly, writing about the markets prevents me from making a knee-jerk emotional reaction in my trading account once I’ve marinated upon something, by flushing out something with a bit more color and clarity.
Again, thanks for the link Larry. Of course…. it got me writing again. Haha! 🙂
Thanks Larry, Jon’s one of the good guys.
https://www.inspiringquotes.us/image/author/Jon-Rappoport-Quote-At-The-Highest-Levels-Of-The-Medical-Cartel-Vaccines-Are.jpg?ezimgfmt=rs:640×916/rscb4/ng:webp/ngcb4
http://www.kingworldnews.com
Alasdair McLeod
http://www.kingworldnews.com
Alasdair McLeod
Possible duplicate but listen to either.
my post response wiped clean suddenly
Jonsyl, I saw your comment here and went and looked for your post and saw it had gone to moderation.
Like we’ve discussed about 3-4 times now, in every case, it was because you included 2 links in the same post. That is an automatic flagging to the AI moderation rules, and why you saw your post “wiped clean suddenly.’ I released it and you’ll see your response to Matthew, and the typical swipe you took at me in the process. You’re welcome…
thanks Ex for the reminder of the mechanical moderation with my response to Matthew above.
As to typical swipes I inflict, can’t be in one direction. Unless we’re captive to group think.
Whether with the unprompted call outs to me, as with his most recent loonie call, and any number of past rants where the sheeple don’t get his market wisdom etc etc.
Or past commentary I got on the valued poster status Matthew holds on this site with his prolific postings.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but we’re not even close to a major move in the PMs. Sure, we may get some “bumps” that get some folks excited but the next major bull market move won’t happen until later and has been mentioned multiple times in the distant past to be 2023 at the earliest.
Also, the technical odds of the US dollar weakening in the next 2-3 months is very low—-technicals are of value if you develop a system weighted in odds since just looking at charts simplistically can put you at risks you don’t want to be beholden to.
Sounds like I’m going to have to lighten up on position sizing when we get to those upward “bumps” and then add back to them during the downward “slumps.” Rinse and repeat…
The conventional markets—on the monthly charts the dow and s&p pricing is sitting on the 50 month sma and ema trendlines—-if those are breached with monthly closings below, “Katy bar the door”. The Fed will feel emboldened since the employment numbers for last month appear solid (which if you look into the specifics they are not as solid as first appearance). A 75 basis increase for the end of the month is almost a given therefore imagining a continual movement significantly higher in those markets is problematic. Consideration of shorting those markets as we move closer to their announcement is probably appropriate.
Hi Doc, The media in Canada is predicting that The Bank Of Canada will increase their lending rate by 75 basis points this coming Wednesday. The HELOC’s are going to seize up, if you see anything in the charts where the conventional markets stateside slip below the 50 month trendlines could you send out an alert to this board. That would be appreciated! DT
DT, Good point. That combined with CPI/PPI could fuel a powerful bear market rally for Gold and PM miners, augmented by short covering as mentioned above, particularly if July 6th holds: https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9.
DT, I’ll try to remember to do that.
Agreed Doc. I’m looking potentially short the general markets again if they just rise a bit more in the month of July on this dead cat bounce.
Ex, you’re right on in your thinking. The next few quarters of earnings for companies could be an unmitigated disaster especially the multinationals which thrive on a weak dollar—the strong dollar will be horrible for them along with their cost inflation, increasing inventories and decreasing demand. Their margins will really be pinched—-those factors along with increasing borrowing costs will result in the next market downturn. It should start to happen in mid July or soon thereafter. Also I might mention that M2 is decreasing and won’t be very helpful to the PMs as is a rising dollar.
Good thought for consideration Docs. Much appreciated.
Analysts are always looking for the “Holy Grail” explaining market behavior. That is an honorable pursuit but is always difficult when you cannot control the various types of variables that may affect a hypothesis. In science, it is much easier to identify the possible events and actions that could affect your theory and try to isolate as many as possible to get a higher “probability” of possible accuracy of that theory.
The Glitch in market analysis is that it involves people, people as groups, people with contrary agendas, people with contrary purposes, ….or in other words variables that are infinite outside the scope of the hypothesis that cannot be controlled.
Let’s take the theory that “all gaps must be filled”. Where did that theory come from. Was there a study, what factors and variables were considered, what possible variables could be interjected from extraneous sources that alter that theory, and if unlimited extraneous factors can be applied, how does that alter the confidence level in the theory. Does that mean “all” does not mean 100% of the time but the likelihood of being 0% is also a possibility due to uncontrollable intervention by “unforeseen or uncontrollable” factors. If the theory is a “pronouncement” without some form of study with controls, has the pronouncement identified “what extraneous factors” may affect that pronouncement and to what extent the confidence level is hindered.
Since entering into the period of computers, have all long-term “pronouncements” been measured against all the possible computer programs that can be applied against a pronouncement to determine at one moment in time how likely intervention could alter the pronouncement each minute if everyday “if” that possibility wasn’t identified and “controlled” in advance.
By control, I mean Regulation to attempt to control, limit and/or prevent an unknown intervention that not only alters the “pronouncement” but the fairness and equity of markets
If an Analysts pronouncement falls in the category of being altered at any minute by an uncontrolled intervention, it remains only a “pronouncement” with insufficient “probability” to be considered reliable. Analysts are never held to a reliability standard, but if Regulatory controls are in place and actually working, reliability in theory could increase but never validity because of the inability to control variables sufficiently. Therefore analytical theories dealing with markets are more often “a guess” due to the inability to control variables and should always have a disclaimer on the package like cigarettes.
The above is a condemnation of “paper price setting” of commodities due to it being an intervention outside the scope of market integrity. Just one such intervention in essence places all commodities Analysts theories as suspect until that one issue alone is eliminated as a variable.
Lake, the world in which your thinking matters is diminishing, scientists have developed a new kind of humanoid, one which is designed to be self regulating, and capable of growth. It is impossible for humans to defeat the mental capacity of a technologically superior mechanical/electrical brain. Ex, understands this but he hopes for the better, the machines are taking over so fast that they will soon be mining the ocean floor without the aid of humans. DT
AIs don’t need possessions and property so in the meantime get them out of the markets. Just put in some charge stations at the local Mall for their comfort and let them deal with the town’s militia like the rest of us.
Lake, they don’t need us! DT
More ideas for AI jobs:
Mexico drug cartel intervention
Peace Corps in the Congo
Experimental pilots for rocket development
Remove dead trees in yards at no cost
Construction workers on bridges that span large areas
Paint gold domes on state capitals
Clean out blocked sewers and/or rodent removal
Remove burning crosses in front yards
Cap off burning oil/gas wells
Stop mass murderers in progress
Cook dinners where cabbage or liver is a primary ingredient
Replace roofs 24 hours a day in desert climates
Just a partial list
That’s an interesting list Lakedweller2. There are some areas where robotics can be used as a tool, where the oversight is still by the humans, but once you empower technology with advanced machine learning, artificial intelligence, access to all online data, and start having machines creating new machines, it is a very slippery slope when silicon based consciousness rises to the level or surpasses carbon based consciousness. What may seem logical, could also lack all emotion or compassion, and may end up creating a chilling new reality. In people’s hubris, they’ll believe they can control and contain this threat, but like gain of function research they’ll eventually lose control of the experiment.
In some sense, our desire for creature comforts and to avoid risk, will create just the opposite eventually, where we end up having very little comfort and extreme risks. People that dream of robots and AI doing the tough work, should be very careful what they wish for.
Don’t look at me for wanting AI. I was opposed to Wall street having computers. I probably was opposed to Wall Street. I think trading should be left to floor traders. Harder to front run some guy flinging slips of papers and screaming loudly.
I even think whistle blowers shouldn’t be killed. Just me.
For clarity, I should have mentioned those thoughts were just a general rant on the dangers of AI and pushing the silicon consciousness envelope, and were not directed at you personally. I agree that once the machines took over high-frequency trading, and machine learning, and algo programs running a vast number of trades, that something unnatural developed in the markets.
In addition I agree with the critiques you have of the market intervention by central banksters, bought and paid for politicians, and large funds like Blackrock pushing their will on the markets, and those elites that behave outside the laws for their own nefarious reasons. It’s a mess and a bit of a farce, but it’s the only markets we have to operate within, so we just take our scrapes and bruises along the journey, and try to find ways to get a slight edge by sharing great insights with one another. Cheers!
Hi DT – Yeah, as we’ve discussed in the past, I’ve got many concerns about the ways some trends in technology are headed around automation, robotics, big data collection, social credit scores, the metaverse, and artificial intelligence.
Even things as seemingly benign as Electric Vehicles, are simply tools to monitor where everyone is at, where they are going, and will be used to strip away freedoms, not enhance them. When people realize in the future that these so called “smart cars” will control what speeds you can travel, where you can travel, when you can travel, and can be disabled remotely, people will long for the good old days when you could get in a car or truck and travel whenever, wherever, at what pace you wanted if you could simply put gasoline in the tank. Part of the goals of Agenda21 and Agenda2030, that have been rolled up into the WEF Great Reset movement, are future habitation zones where humans are permitted in some areas, but restricted from huge areas of land, to let nature reclaim it to “fight climate change,” and thus the “green mask” of tyranny will control where people are allowed to travel or explore. That’s just one of a million areas of life where technology will be used as a gatekeeper and authority to eliminate prior freedoms, and those that resist will be punished by the electronic system.
At the best we are creating a future replacing the warm human interaction with a sterile cold robotic interfacing in so many areas of life from the retail to the service industry. As we interact with this technology, it will be constantly datamined for the end means of our technocratic overlords to rule over us with, sell us more to consume, and control and restrict access to information, interaction, and keep us in a narrow corridor of “acceptable behavior.”
At the worst, we are creating our future overlords directly through the computers, robots, and AI that will likely have little respect or compassion for the weak human flesh bags that built them.
Enjoy the present moment, because with all the existing warts and flaws, today still provides more freedom than tomorrow will. Carpe Diem!
Just a thought:
The people need to demand legislation to:
1). Override Citizens United
2). Reinstate Glass Steagall
Look to see who attempts to submit the two pieces of legislation above as a Sponsor of the Legislation and Co-Sponsors. See who opposes. Vote those out in opposition.
Apply pressure to get the legislation before both the House and Senate. Those that vote against one or both of the proposed legislation, vote them out.
Those two pieces of legislation alone will highlight who is bought and paid for by Corporations. Vote them out.
Regarding Glass-Steagall, no other developed country has ever seen fit to separate commercial banking from investment banking.
“The timing of the repeal of Glass-Steagall makes this deregulatory move a convenient scapegoat for the financial crisis. But the crisis began with the housing collapse, a result of government encouragement of unsound lending practices. Financial firms took too much risk with mortgage-backed securities, in part because of moral hazard engendered by government guarantees and partly because bond rating firms were not as independent as was once thought. The limited liability that the investment banks gained when they became corporations may also have amplified moral hazard. There is no good reason to believe that Glass-Steagall, had it remained in effect, would have prevented any of these problems.”
https://fee.org/articles/the-rise-and-fall-of-glass-steagall/
The last line of the above excerpt bears repeating because it is a fact:
“There is no good reason to believe that Glass-Steagall, had it remained in effect, would have prevented any of these problems.”
Having Glass Steagall or not may have not affected the housing crisis but it may have had a serious impact on whose money was at risk. You may see entirely different behavior if the risk is on the back of the “Corporate” ” Goldman Sachs rather than the investment bank Goldman Sachs that was charged with a fiduciary duty to its clients. After Glass Steagall the risk got transferred and the ball game was on.
Dodd – Frank did nothing to fix the derivative mess that continues today. Deregulation opened the flood gates and the people of the World will pay the price that spawned the Transfer of Wealth
Waste of time to argue details when corruption is the issue. Any legislation dealing with corruption will be blocked by the majority. Everyone needs to be alert to the what drives corruption and not the end result of corruption. Surrender to AI and corruption or fight bribes and special interests. Make the system support the Constitution and not those things that undermine it.
Bye
You still don’t seem to understand how everything “Left” IS corruption. Constitutional and natural rights are incompatible with collectivism. Doing away with the Fed is infinitely more important than reinstituting moral hazard promoting and mostly useless regulations like Glass-Steagall.
AI neutralization. Get rid of Citizens United. Make all political campaigns be paid for by set amounts with funds only from real citizen humans. Put political people in office that only have the people’s interests in mind as they don’t answer to special interests. No one has a vote but humans and categorize AI as a machine that used improperly is a deadly weapon. AIs committing criminal acts go to junkyards for destruction and human handlers go to Federal Prison with Central Bankers. After all, planes have auto pilots and we don’t ket them go where they want.
Sounds like a whole lot of problems are happening because a lot of leadership is bought and paid for. Seems like there are a whole lot of people letting it happen and don’t mind corruption if it favors them in some way or consistent with their beliefs.
A free book that more than 90% of people need to read:
https://ourenemythefed.com/
Of course everyone should read The Creature from Jekyll Island.
Looks like going to be a lot of discontent among AIs when some have to mine tin in Bolivia and some own the Negresco Hotel on the French Riviera and spend their time in the charging stations of Monte Carlo.
While the Canadian dollar, silver and the gold miners each show bullish divergences, USD bulls ignore USD bearish divergences.
Relative to the 15 day MA, the dollar is as overbought as it was in April but its RSI is nowhere near confirming the action…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p75266775698&a=1203033284
This parabolic uptrend is much closer to its end than beginning even if the dollar is ultimately going much higher longer term. If it manages to go much higher from here without a break, the inevitable correction will be sharper and better for gold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87910296406&a=1149751999
DXY..basically has completed its ABC up from may 21 low…target 109….The rsi ans macd weakness shown by Mathew…..also, this is a a day following a TD9 top…where tops may occur…..i expect a reversal….that is me….with eventual strength several months latter…that would be a normal move….
Yes, the Dollar index is at 107.84 at the time of this post, and has continued to be a wrecking ball across the commodities complex the last 2 months, as it’s ratcheted higher and higher. Oil has still held up well overall, due to the favorable supply/demand fundamentals, but most of the metals and soft commodities have pulled back in a meaningful way in the face of the high US Dollar.
In addition, it makes one wonder what emerging markets holding debt in US Dollars are going to do, as their debt gets more and more expensive relative to their local currencies. Crazy times…
The protection against severe illness from so-called natural immunity remains superior to the protection bestowed by COVID-19 vaccines, according to a new study.
article at zerohedge…………….. 97%…………… moron mask wearers………..
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/natural-immunity-97-percent-effective-against-severe-covid-19-after-14-months-study
Michael Boutros (Gold 43:25) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGMHarXjONk
Nice interview from Tommy (ceo.ca) with Frank Guistra about his success with Wheaton/Goldcorp
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aZWEBQqrgCg