Weekend Show – Markets and Metals – A Focus On Short Term Trading Strategies And What Investments Work During Stagflation
Welcome to Weekend Edition of the KE Report. On this Weekend’s Show we feature Dana Lyons and Axel Merk. The focus is past the Fed meeting next week on where markets and commodities go from here.
There is no denying we are dealing bear markets across the board so the question is how long and when will the Fed pivot to save markets.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager kicks off the show by sharing his recent trading strategies for a wide range of markets. We start with the US markets and the sectors Dana has been buying. he shares some insights on what his internal models are telling him about breadth and momentum. These have been key signals for market direction. We also discuss the set up in gold stocks, commodities and bonds. Click here to keep up to date with Dana’s trading strategies.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Axel Merk, President and CIO of Metk Investments wraps up the show by discussing the overall bear market, why he thinks the Fed is at peak hawkishness and what happens to markets during a stagflationary environment. Click here to visit the Merk Investments website.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- LithiumBank – PEA Coming Soon, What Sets The Boardwalk Lithium Project Apart From Other Lithium Brine Deposits?
- Skeena Resources – A Comprehensive Update On Exploration Work This Year, Cash In The Bank, An Upcoming Feasibility Study and Your Questions Answered
- Metalla Royalty & Streaming – 4 Key Asset Updates As Projects Are Moving Closer To Production
- Torq Resources – Drill Program At The Margarita Project Commencing To Follow Up On The Recent Discovery
Gold Bounces Off Critical Support Heading into Fed Week
David Erfle – Friday July 22th, 2022
“The gold price has been trading sideways since mid-2020, frustrating both bulls and bears while building cause for the next breakout in either direction. After gold’s sharp doubling in price from 2016 to 2020, the safe-haven metal has been in a prolonged pullback/consolidation phase to digest those out-sized gains.”
“Gold’s peak to trough correction ($2,089-$1,673) has been 20%, a textbook retracement down to its .382 Fibonacci retracement level. The high was re-tested in March of this year, while the lows had been tested three separate times over the past two years heading into this week.”
“With bear growls growing louder into the highly anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, there was a fourth test of the $1675 low. During the early hours of Thursday’s Comex trading session, the gold price came precariously close to the $1675 Maginot Line of Gold Bulls’ defense as traders awaited the ECB decision.”
“Yet the bears were denied once again as the news of a surprise 50 bps rate-hike from the ECB created a short-covering rally in deeply oversold bullion…”
Metals and Miners in Pole Position
David Brady – Sprott Money – July 21, 2022
“All of the conditions are in place for a major low and a massive rally to follow. We’re just waiting for the confirmation that the bottom is in and the rally to new record highs has truly begun.”
“Despite being extremely oversold following a 2-year sell-off, Gold could still break $1675 to complete its correction. That said, a rebound to prior support at ~$1785, followed by a higher low, and then a new higher high, would signal the bottom is in and up we go. Note how the top of the bull flag is converging on that resistance point. A break and close above $1883 would confirm the rally to $2300+ is already under way.”
“Given the pounding that Silver has endured relative to Gold, it may have already bottomed out courtesy of multiple positive divergences. Confirmation is needed with a close above 22 and a break above the intra-day high of 22.57 while establishing a trend of higher lows and higher highs. Above 24 and 40+ is next imho.”
ok…learned a lot per usual…..What a great site…off to honey do lists…lmao…my head already aches…glta
Thanks for that feedback Larry. We appreciate your input greatly as well.
Good luck with the honey-do list. Haha!
Current Crow Line: https://postimg.cc/HV2LrQM2
Will the Bell Toll for Gold?
Dollar Index : Summer 2022 : Peaked?
Another week of good info and education for all! Thanks to so many of you with your links and charts and allowing so many to digest the day to day and longer term outcomes as well.
Here is what Glen has been seeing for sometime now and it’s just about to get started. The other day i spoke about the bullish w pattern that was playing out. Jerry this one’s for you and and thanks for checking in on me amigo 🙂 all is well! Notice this is a hui chart but same scenario in a monthly form can be added to xau and many others! This is what I’m seeing and it’s going to get exciting after a very long in the tooth kick your ass bear market in the miners for almost 2 years.
Cheers to all and remember there is a good possibility of a lower cut low of the august low but that w formation is telling and is saying you should be a purchaser at the current times. Not investment advice but what Glen is doing and waiting for. Now back to 😴
Hello Glen……… Glad to hear you are OK………. thanks for posting the info…..
Thanks for the chart,….I just had a chance to look at it………..
ditto on the bear market….. No big deal…… long term…….. UP a big U, with a nice cup , dang handle just got stuck for a couple of years……..shaking out the weak minded…….. lol
In case one is not a stockcharts member
my2cents and question…..if earnings crater per El-Erian concern…Is this not gold bullish due to fed pivot expectations…EXXXXX
Few boats float in a Lake Mead market.
Few boats will float in Lake Mead at the rate water levels are receding. I saw satellite images the other day showing that lake is lower than it has been in since 1937, and is at emergency levels for power generation to Vegas, and for supplying many areas with water for important farming.
Drought Discoveries: Father-son duo document finds from receding Lake Mead waters
Jul 19, 2022
“A father-son duo has been documenting their daily discoveries from the receding waters of Lake Mead. Their findings have been captivating millions of people across the world.”
I wonder if they will find The Ex-President of The Teamster’s Union, Jimmy Hoffa resting in Lake Mead. DT
Yeah, I’ve watched a few of those episodes from the father and son team mentioned in that link above, and they mentioned there were a few corpses that were found, as well as some locked in concrete (a classic swim with the fishes situation). There have been about a dozen old sunken boats found as well.
Hoffa may turn up eventually. Haha!
If I was in Las Vegas I’d be getting pretty concerned about the power generation ability (the water is already down to the crucial level for the dam uptake areas). In addition that water is pumped far afield to irrigate farm land that grows many fruits, vegetables, herbs, and nuts, and is going to have an even further impact on food production, in a year where fertilizers costs have spiked higher, where the Ukraine bread basket is wiped out, and where droughts in California, Oregon, and a few other states are decimating crops. Also there was a late frost this year that zapped many flowering plants along the west coast, and will even further impact food production.
Hi Ex again, one issue is the water that feeds Arizona, New Mexico, Las Vegas, and California from Lake Mead. But there is a bigger issue, The Colorado River supplies electricity to those four states. The Colorado River flows through The Hoover Dam and into Lake Mead. At some point the Hoover Dam won’t have enough water for electricity generation and not only won’t they have water but also electricity. California has a lot of industry, but it means squat without electrical power. The US is fast becoming a Banana Republic. DT 😉
DT, the sad thing is that NAWAPA (North American Water and Power Alliance), which was first proposed over 60 years ago, has been left stillborn. This project could recharge economies through out the northern Americas, even deeply into Mexico.
Agreed DT and BDC. Water management, and it’s role in both farming and power generation are huge issues right now in a large part of the US, and really in a large part of the world thereover. Some tough times are likely ahead, and these systemic changes may cause migrations of people out of certain areas and cause floods of traffic into others, which could create boom/bust cycles in real estate in varying markets.
Hi Ex, I think you missed the issue I was talking about, the loss of electrical power is much bigger than the water issue, although both are huge. It is not like you to miss the mark, I think you just have too much on your plate. 👀😎DT!
Ex, don’t you understand that if Lake Mead’s water levels are falling The Colorado River is being depleted. The Colorado River provides the Hydro Electric power for The Hoover Dam. If there isn’t enough water flowing through The Colorado River, The Hoover Dam will shut down. The water from The Hoover Dam flows into Lake Mead after it goes through Hoover Dam. Do you understand how much electricity it supplies for New Mexico, Las Vegas, Arizona, and California. This is a much bigger issue than water. DT
Hi DT, Yes, I understand the ramifications for the power generation losses and already noted that up above. See my responses above in 3 different posts, where I discussed the potential impact to the water uptake at the dams which would greatly affect or even shut down power generation in the area. Yes I see that as a critical issue as noted.
DT – Here are the parts of 3 different posts of mine up above where I specifically mentioned the impact to power generation… when you mentioned I missed your point… ironically apparently you had missed mine. 🙂
Jul 23, 2022 23:54 AM
“I saw satellite images the other day showing that lake is lower than it has been in since 1937, and is at emergency levels for power generation to Vegas…”
Jul 23, 2022 23:24 PM
“If I was in Las Vegas I’d be getting pretty concerned about the power generation ability (the water is already down to the crucial level for the dam uptake areas).”
Jul 23, 2022 23:36 PM
“Water management, and it’s role in both farming and power generation are huge issues right now in a large part of the US, and really in a large part of the world thereover.”
As a side note, these issues with drought and lower water levels for decades also further highlight the continued issues with hydro as a power generation model.
The reality is that renewable energy like hydro, solar, and wind, are not nearly reliable enough nor are there enough applications of renewables to feed the energy grid. We are in no way ready, nor are most countries ready, to abandon using fossil fuels (oil, nat gas, coal) or nuclear power (the only carbon free 24/7 baselode power source) to make up the deficit.
Look at the train wreck Japan and Germany have been for power generation since they took a number of their nuclear plants offline. Japan has had rolling blackouts, and power curfews and allowances, which hurt their business output, and the solution is easy… turn those nuclear plants back on and they’d be back in business.
As for Germany, it was tragic comedy that the announced they were shutting down their nuclear plants to become the big global leaders in “Renewable Energy,” only for them to run out of power and need to import Nuclear power from France, and Coal from other nations. In their brilliance they decided nat gas from Russia would be the solution, since renewables were not cutting the mustard, and despite the US and other countries advising them not to be so dependent on Russia, they ignored everyone and looked to Russia to be their saviors.
Clapping hands sarcastically…. (yeah, great job on energy policy Germany…. great job).
So often the marketing pitch for renewables sounds great, but it is divorced from reality. The reality is, with the ever growing power generation needs, we are nowhere close to abandoning Nat Gas plants or Nuclear power, and heck, many areas are not even prepared to give up Heating Oil in the winter or Coal power generation. Some countries are still burning plant material in Biomass Power, which is like a big campfire and puts up tons of carbon as a biproduct.
It is continually ridiculous that so many politicians and do-gooder environmentalist radicals are their own worst enemies. Part of the solution is more nuclear power not less; producing both the new generation of larger reactors, the alternative large salt reactors, and the smaller modular plants – none of which have the meltdown concerns of the old plants. There is plenty of Uranium and clearly the decades of “anti-nuclear” sentiment has been the wrong call, and now so many years later, the greenies are finally waking up to that reality. Part of the solution is converting Coal plants to Nat Gas plants; it’s not expensive to convert them plants for the larger prize, and we have tons of nat gas in the US, and it burns cleaner than Coal. The solution is more Oil pipelines (not blocking them). Pipelines are actually far safer and have far less environmental impact that trucks, trains, and tankers, but the ding dong environmentalists never bother to get the facts, they just emotionally react. Usually the Greenies make things worse for their cause and for everyone else, and then further end up shooting themselves in the foot by blocking extractive industries from supplying the very solutions they say they want in renewable power. (Copper, Nickel, Rare Earths, Cobalt, Lithium, Silver, Uranium need to be mined… they aren’t grown out of thin air).
Dams, windmills, solar farms, and geothermal plants can be nice augmentations to power, but at this point they are not the sole solution, and have many problems of their own. Dams create huge environmental issues affecting plant & animal habitats, they screw over the people in the flood plains, or worse the people downriver that have things greatly reduced. Solar panels only last so long, and then the waste they create 10-15 years later is a huge issue, as is all the power and resources needed to create them in the first place. Windmills need Rare Earth Elements for the magnets, which are mostly sourced from China, they kill a number of birds, and it’s not always windy, just like it’s not always sunny. As a result, solar and wind are simply intermittent power sources, and they’ll either need 24/7 baselode power back-up power from coal, nat gas, or nuclear plants, or they’ll need to implement massive energy storage processes with large vanadium redox batteries, but that takes even more resources and energy to build those.
Energy is a complicated topic, but clearly the world is fooling itself if it honestly believes it can phase out nuclear, nat gas, and coal anytime soon, and it needs to get real with approving the mines in North or South America to be able to produce enough Copper, Nickel, Silver, Zinc, Cobalt, Graphite, Lithium, and Rare Earths to make many of these other alternative power sources and the electrification goals a reality.
Net Zero Climate Target Could Fail Without More Copper Supply
Ernest Scheyder – Reuters – July 14, 2022
“Efforts to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 are likely to remain out of reach as copper supply fails to match demand amid growing use of solar panels, electric vehicles and other renewable technologies, data from S&P Global showed on Thursday.”
“The world’s appetite for the red metal will reach 53 million tonnes annually by mid-century – more than double current levels – but fall short of supply by 2.7 million tonnes without more recycling and mining, the report forecasts.”
Yes Ex you are right, somehow I missed what you were saying, what bothers me the most is how they could abandon something so obviously important to the point where it could fail, but you addressed that as well. Thanks, DT
Agreed DT. The negligence on behalf of the Department Of Energy and Federal government, the State governments, and local jurisdictions is stunning, and shows how completely off the mark they’ve been on energy policy and dealing in the real for a long time now. Hopefully sanity will return now that they’ve let things get to crisis levels in the US and so many supposedly “developed first world” nations.
Hey Ex, Joe got it wrong Cash is not King, Cash is The Joker! When the government shuts down his bank account like they did to The Russians he will wish he had Gold, The King! I don’t think we need to worry too much about these markets for another month and a half, because you know when the conventional market starts it’s swan dive they will throw the kitchen sink at it, it will only stick temporarily which will give us time to buy The Joker. Then The Joker (Don Rickles) will tell Frank Sinatra, “Frank it’s Over”. LOL! DT😉
Odessa Deal Weakens Sanctions!
Turns soon confirmed?
Continuation by Alexander Mercouris (16:40),
including Oil, NatGas, and Gold.
Ex I tried posting a piece a few hours ago, please check if on hold 🙂
Hi Glenfidish. I saw two posts that had been held in the cue, and just released them both.
Thanks for sharing your insights with us here buddy. Cheers!
Okay, everyone here is talking about hesitation, the stock market could fool us all and enter into it’s last sensational phase. Anyone who choses this moment to predict that The Bull Market is on the verge of a wild advance would be viewed as a Mad Man, or else a genius psychologist. We haven’t seen the Big Blow Off Top that usually precedes a Crash, then comes “The Puker”, as Rick Rule calls it. There are many a reason to fear this market, all The Bankers, and the Financial Analyst’s know this. Be careful to not get trapped by the market, it is really insanity for The IMF, and The Federal Reserve to think that they can print there way out of problems and then come in and save the day. It is not going to happen. (PERIOD) DT
Some good thoughts to ponder DT. Personally, I’m expecting generalist investors to get more complacent with the systemic risks we are seeing and possibly fuel a bit more of the short-covering rally in the US equity markets, erroneously believing the worst of the declines is behind us. When many start piling in and we see calls of an “all clear” and and “recession will be avoided” this will give generalist lemmings the idea to pile back in. It is after that rally that maybe has another month or two to run, that we’ll see the rug get pulled out again, and the markets will roll over and begin the trek back down to make a new lower low, possibly heading into the fall or winter.
Retail Investors’ Appetite For Speculation Appears Insatiable
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – July 20, 2022
“One of the most astounding phenomena in the markets over the past couple of years is retail investors’ enthusiastic embrace of leveraged speculation. Everything from good old-fashioned margin debt to ultra-short-dated call options was utilized recently and to a degree never seen before to take advantage of (and to accelerate) rising equity prices. Leveraged ETFs provide another poignant example. From early 2020 to the end of last year, assets in the five largest leveraged long equity ETFs soared four-fold from about $10 billion to $40 billion.”
“Aside from the remarkable gain in dollar terms (which just like their bullish brethren appears to be on a longer-term upward trajectory), the 140% surge in these bearish funds is the greatest 6-month increase since they were first introduced back in 2010 in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis. For those that thought a bear market might put a damper on the appetite for speculation (including yours truly), you (we) may need to think again…”
‘There Is Tremendous Risk In Extrapolating 2021 Profitability’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – July 23, 2022
Yes Ex, the hair of the dog is still here, the interest rates are not high enough to curb speculation. Speculators are ready to pay these rates if prices on the stock market keep on climbing. The government doesn’t want to pay the new rates but like The Federal Reserve they are in a corner. The only thing now that will stop speculation because it can’t be curbed, is through disaster. DT
DT – Yes, that is the concern, that the only thing that will stop the unbridled speculation is a more serious economic downturn –> recession lasting long enough to create a depression.
However, it should be pointed out that over the last year, we’ve seen a lot of “hot money” get completely vaporized in the “pot stocks” “stay-at-home stocks,” “meme stocks,” “growth/tech stocks” “biotech stocks” “cryptocurrencies/DeFi/NFTs” and then the “reopening stocks.” With so many bagholders out there in so many sectors, not just the “junior resource stocks,” there has already been a major culling of the herd of available speculators.
There were comical memes going around the last 6 months with something along the lines of “Welcome back to work stay at home investors.” 😉
So much for their big talk of havinig “Diamond Hands” and the often touted “HODL” Hold-On for-Dear-Life philosophy. The reality is most had “Butter Fingers” and “RFDL” Ran For Dear Life.
Larry McDonald Expects Big Rebound in Gold Stocks
Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA – The Daily Gold – July 21, 2022
“Larry McDonald, founder and editor of the Bear Traps Report has proven to be one of the absolute best market timers when it comes to trading the gold stocks. Larry explains what is happening, the parallels to 2008 and Covid and what it could mean for precious metals. Larry is confident the Fed will be forced to shift soon and that will coincide with a big rebound in the gold stocks.”
See article with Daniela Cambone and her discussion about Kitco and other Financial News organizations suppressing coverage of Gold price intervention.
Sorry Lake………. I posted the below……before I read yours……..
I think a lot of people danced around the issue of manipulation, like I posted a few days ago
to some fellow BSers here……….
Why anyone would want much exposure to Chile right now is puzzling, as their current administration is doing more and more to kill foreign investment into mining and extractive resources in that country.
Chile rejects second Anglo American project in two months
Cecilia Jamasmie | July 22, 2022
Peru is not much better and is gradually turning into Chile philosophically and practically. It still depends on the local area, but I’ve done my best to minimize my exposure to much of Chile and Peru and Colombia and Ecuador in my portfolio, but still have a little exposure.
Where in the world is all the Copper going to come from for the proposed Green New Deal, EV charging stations on every corner, or just the continued electrification of the developing world?
Peru indigenous communities say no progress in talks with Las Bambas copper mine
Reuters | July 21, 2022
Here is your BS MANIPULATION……………..
Stansberry’s Cambone confesses: Gold market rigging was prohibited subject
So it would be even more interesting if someone interviewed Cambone herself to discover exactly who at Kitco News directed her not to discuss the issue in her many years of doing interviews there, and to discover who seems to have renewed those instructions to Kitco’s current staff members.
But Cambone also leaves a mistaken impression here. For while the gold and silver sector now may be fully aware of the longstanding rigging of its markets, the government policy behind that rigging, which goes far beyond the Morgan traders who have been convicted and those who are now on trial, still can’t be addressed by mainstream financial news organizations and most monetary metals market analysts — nor by nearly all gold and silver mining companies themselves.
If Cambone really wants to make amends for her years of aiding gold and silver price suppression and the cheating of the investors who relied on her, she might consider interviewing a few of her bigshot friends in the industry about the extensive documentation of government gold price suppression policy, as compiled by GATA here —
So it would be even more interesting if someone interviewed Cambone herself to discover exactly who at Kitco News directed her not to discuss the issue in her many years of doing interviews there, and to discover who seems to have renewed those instructions to Kitco’s current staff members.
Here is the big one………………………….
Which brings me back to the “manipulation comment, ….I posted here concerning a Legend… 🙂
“Back in the day, you remember when we started in the industry, the talk of gold manipulation was really … like, you couldn’t talk about it. It was like an underground thing. You were seen as a conspiracy person if you did speak about it, and now it’s really like it’s almost out in the open. Yes, banks were spoofing the prices.”
Gold price gains as investors weigh growth concerns; Palladium price jumps
Bloomberg News | July 22, 2022
“Gold held onto gains and headed for its first weekly advance since early June as investors weighed renewed concerns over economic growth. Bullion’s reversal comes with more economic data fueling fears of a recession. US business activity contracted in July for the first time in more than two years, according to data released Friday, adding to a slew of indicators earlier in the week that are painting a gloomy outlook. Meanwhile, a gauge of the greenback has retreated from its July 14 peak.”
“We are finally starting to see some weakness in the US dollar index, as gold bounces off an oversold level, recovering above $1,700 for now,” said John Feeney, business development manager at Sydney-based bullion dealer Guardian Gold Australia.
Hi guys, fyi, for some reason your podcasts are no longer showing on my Google podcast app.
Hi Pen Jon. We just implemented a new podcast posting process, using Pod Bean, and Cory and I are working to get them out to more platforms. I was under the impression that Cory already added them to Google, and is in the process of getting them added to Apple/I-tunes once again. We already got them added to Spotify and Audible, and I just went through the process on Friday to add them I Heart Radio and Pandora.
Some platforms mentioned it may take a few days or even a week or two to get them added to their services, so please be patient during this transition process. The podcasts can always be downloaded here directly from the audio player hosted from Pod Bean, or on Pod Bean directly.
For those who don’t have a clue what Wall Street and the gov are up to:
Matthew, you may find this interesting: “The Age of Jackson” by Arthur Schlesinger Jr.
Concise history of resistance to Federalists / Banking.
Through page 29 (plate 48). PDF best.
Thank you BDC.
Matthew, thanks for the Ed Dowd interview. Big Al better listen before he takes another booster kill shot. NEM, my biggest holding, is down $6 today. It’s fallen from 85 to 45 since April. My cost is 17 and I ain’t selling till gold gets to 5K or 8K.
Bonzo is back…………..
People are missing out on a LOT OF INFO……. avoiding the ORPHAN SECTION (oh, I mean the political section)……..
Bonzo, NEM hasn’t been more oversold since it traded around $26 in 2018. Based on today’s massive volume, and “bad” news, I’d say this is a move-ending capitulation.
Remember, all news is bad at major lows and all news is good at major tops.
Thanks, Matthew. I hope NEM bottomed yesterday. I would buy more but I already have too much and am looking at smaller explorers.
Gold hasn’t taken out its price lows of March or August last year but has crushed them relative to the 100 week EMA and that’s far more important than the vast majority understand. All of the lows of the last year+ exceeded the 2020 crash low from this perspective and last week’s low was on par with the 2018 low (based on many other measures as well). Let’s see if the Fed meeting this week will bring a slightly lower low. Either way, the miners are a buy here in my opinion.
This looks like a “do or die” week for dollar bulls.
Xi and Putin got the USD in the crosshairs with announcement of alternative reserve currency.
Another day that looks like all the other days. Some up and some down but not the same ones as the day before…
ABRASILVER (ABRA) had an absolute monster hit of 26 meters of 2,383 G/T of AG eq, and the market so far has barely noticed. Too many shares and a depressed state of mind over the markets has caused a big Yawn, and investors looking for sell the news and the egress. DT
I almost added to Abra until I saw shares out on the OTC Markets site of 487,354,473. But, a great hole.
It would be a time to add as Good News does not matter in this market.
(which reminds me of the interview with Gerald Celente on King World News recently where he proclaimed he was having trouble predicting trends as “facts” don’t matter)
Michael Boutros (Gold 47:10) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0StWAQAmV9I
Another Trivia Moment:
I am now holding 36 stocks and the alternating day scenario continues. My best stock today is Honey Badger at +12.9%. Friday, Honey Badger was – 8.42%. Brunswick up +9% today and down -7% Friday. Snowline also… Which ones are positive overall: Eloro, Calibre, GR Silver, Blackrock, Cabral, Snowline.
How many of those are recent purchases at oversold prices: all of them. That makes stocks like Lion One, Vizsla Silver, Stillwater, Amex, Cassiar, Summa, Labrador, etc losers…
JPM in trial for manipulation …. no impact. Do you think the Fed and Politicians have some big problems… I would say the intervention in markets is for a reason.
Thanks to all the KE Report guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Dana & Axel.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!