Robert Sinn – Is Gold Good For Anything And Are Commodities In A Secular Bull Market?
Robert Sinn, aka Goldfinger, founder of Trading Lab, and editor of Energy & Gold, joins us to discuss whether or not gold is good for anything, and if commodities are in a secular bull market. We start off discussing the terrible sentiment in the precious metals sector at present, and how some of the narratives around why the PMs are doing well or doing poorly are often at odds with what we see play out. Robert notes that gold did very well from 2019 into 2020 when the forward looking markets anticipated the inflation that would arrive as a result of M2 new money supply, and within the backdrop of declining real rates when interest rates starting sliding lower and lower.
Next we shifted focus to the resource stocks, and made the important point that most of the junior mining stocks are not longer term “buy and hold” type of equities. Due to their extreme amplification of the cyclical and volatile nature of the underlying commodities, most are best traded by accumulating during weak oversold periods, and by selling during strong overbought periods. Robert mentioned that the gains in junior mining stocks can be fantastic and go up multiple-fold during bullish cycles, but can be terrible and go down swiftly during the bearish cycles, more so than general equities indexes.
Robert then remarks that while he does believe we are in a longer-duration secular bull market in commodities, that they need to be separated by sector and individual company macro fundamentals and technicals, as each commodity or company can have very steep and sudden corrections within a larger bullish uptrend. We used lithium, copper, and oil & natural gas as recent examples of such volatility to both the upside and downside. He also was bullish on the equally volatile biotech sector for it’s favorable set up at present, and recent outperformance of the general equities. We wrap up by finding out if Goldfinger thinks we may see a bounce anytime soon in the gold stocks. He points to the pattern of 6 weeks down in GDX as only having happened twice before since it’s inception, along with this time of year’s seasonality for bottoming, and the recent bad earnings call out of Newmont (NEM) as indications we may be near an oversold bounce.
Bob Moriarty: A New World Reserve Currency Based Around Gold Will Be Created
Goldfinger (aka Robert Sinn) – Energy & Gold – 07/25/2022
“In this month’s conversation with Bob Moriarty we discuss sentiment in the junior mining sector and the mounting signs of a tradable bottom that Bob is seeing across the precious metals sector. Bob believes we are close to an important bottom in the juniors, and investor sentiment on social media is helping to confirm this theory. We also discuss the prospect of a new global reserve currency supported by China and Russia that could be backed by gold. We then delve into Eloro Resources, Eloro’s recent drill results, and why Bob believes Eloro’s Iska Iska Project could become one of the most important mines in South America. We conclude by discussing a recent blog post that I wrote on CEO.ca about what drives the gold market, and why the recent gold downturn has been particularly frustrating for many precious metals investors. Without further ado, Energy & Gold’s July 2022 conversation with 321gold founder Bob Moriarty….”
System Will ‘Wipe Out’ Entire Class as Global Economy Spins Into Free Fall, Warns Greg Mannarino
Stansberry Research – July 26, 2022
“I would argue that we’re way, way worse off than a recession here right now,” warns Greg Mannarino, founder of Trader’s Choice and financial strategist. The yield curve is, “extremely inverted,” at this point and, “the global economy is in free-fall, it’s not going to stop,” he exclaims to our Daniela Cambone. “The system demands that debt be created, every day by every mechanism possible,” Mannarino explains as the government intends to, “exert more economic control on people.” He concludes that the Fed only has one tool in its arsenal, “and it’s how they can manipulate the debt… that’s it.”
There’s No Going Back, Even if The Economy Collapses..
I Love Prosperity w/ Jake Ducey #Uranium focus
“Justin Huhn gives some important updates for all investors. We talk about the economic collapse, the stock market, and how Uranium will ultimately be unaffected by it in the long term, because of these very important investing fundamentals and updates that Justin provides today…”
Inflation? We Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet
Peter Zeihan – Jul 14, 2022
He forgot to mention immigration to USA that is putting enormous stress on housing, commodities, and pretty much everything else.
History seems like it is about to repeat itself, prices are slowly starting to climb, from the dead cat bounce. There is however a lot of things wrong with the Financial System. The Wall Street boys know that the economy is in trouble. Right now there isn’t a real alarm, this situation will change when the public sees what the wall street insiders know. The market isn’t readjusting itself into a more secure technical position, it is waiting to see if there will be a further liquidation of stocks in the general markets. Markets can be forward and backward looking. DT
Hi, any reason why the episodes are not showing up as podcasts anymore?
Hey Kevin, which Podcast service do you use? We recently switched to a different podcast distribution system and are working out some of the kinks.
Going back to the McEwen Mining(MUX) press release of July 12 concerning the reverse split and under the heading ‘AGM Voting Results’ it states:
Approve the proposal to amend the articles of incorporation to reduce the number of common stock authorized to be issued from 675 million shares to 200 million shares.
Terry, that mean that the company can issue up to 200 million more new shares post the split, which is reduced from 675 million approved previously.
Again, it will be a 1 for 10 split still. Here’s the passage that matters since the share count will be going down to 47 million:
“Following the Reverse Split, the number of outstanding common shares of the Company will be reduced from approximately 474 million outstanding common shares to approximately 47 million outstanding common shares.”
Now, what should be concerning is that MUX can blow out the share count after the split from 47 Million to 247 Million based on the approved allotment, so there can still be plenty of dilution in McEwen Mining if they choose to raise more capital and issue more shares (which is an almost certainty).
Exactly..and I looked at the share structure of several companies, SCZ, IPT, FSM, AGX, KTN, for example among others and not one of them has new shares authorized.
If MUX had reduced its authorised shares 1:10 down to 67.5 M, I wouldn’t have mentioned it.
Yeah, MUX has been a dilution machine for a while, and has had a bunch of challenges to overcome operationally at each mine for the lsst 2 years.
Odds are, after the share rollback, they’ll likely do another capital raise, dilute the sharecount further…rinse and repeat. At that point, after the market falloit, I may take another go at MUX for a turnaround trade, with the idea that they actually get more traction from operations in an improving metals environment.
“Shortages” Aren’t Causing Inflation. Money Creation Is.
Inflation: Who or What Is the Culprit?
“So here we sit today—our government an unfathomable $30 trillion in debt (up by over $6 trillion in only two years) and inflation raging at 7.5 percent. The culprits are obvious: Uncle Sam and the Fed. We should draw two important lessons from the present financial fiasco.
First, a central bank in charge of a fiat currency that tailors its policies to accommodate irresponsible deficit spending by the federal government is a menace to society, unleashing forces that it cannot control.
Second, at a time when many Americans seem infatuated with socialism, our federal government has given us a painful illustration of how incompetent government is to manage (plan) our economy. In the name of trying to help steer our economy through the pandemic, Uncle Sam has given us high inflation and made millions of Americans poorer.”
Simply put Matthew, I couldn’t agree more! DT
Yes agreed, it has been both terrible fiscal policy by the US government, paired with equally problematic monetary policy from the central bank, and the massive increase in money supply from government stimulus, and debt on the balance sheet of the Fed that has led to the inflation we are seeing today.
At least the Chinese got something from the increase in money supply, new fast trains, efficient metros, new airports.. Most Americans got very little.
Yes, the Chinese were smarter about their spending blowout and actually invested in infrastructure, whereas the US blew out the money supply with helicopter money to businesses and citizens that was often misallocated to speculation and temporary pleaures, or there were huge amounts of woke policy pork crammed into those stimulus bills to fund the nanny-state agenda. Pure inflationary fodder…
I guess getting high-speed trains, better infrastructure, and large building projects like China would have been something more lasting and tangible, but regardless the creation of all the money supply was the real enemy of the people in either instance.
There is something going on in China, and it’s so huge that even the CCP with all the might of the totalitarian system at its disposal cannot cover it up
Good article Matthew. Yeah, John Rubino and I took a bit deeper dive into the housing market implosion in China and the weakness under the surface there in our discussion this week, and made a number of similar points.
LOL. Another talking head.
This administration in process of redefining recession. So don’t WOKE UP
NFGC ( Newfound Gold ) added again @ $3.63
Still 28% cash
The Fed can’t hurt me now….+ $134 for the day. Back up the truck ….
Update: Went negative…buying Tulips
Ex….any reason that during the latest doc Jones interview neither you nor Doc said it was GASX when discussing a specific play when he’s already mentioned it by name in past interviews?????…..and boy is it looking good….and boy did I get lucky getting the warrants. There hasn’t been an ask price on them since I got them.
I noticed they didn’t mention GASX either, but I try to keep up with Doc’s profile page on ceo.ca and he was still showing GASXF as a holding. He has a contact there also that sends him photos from the field and they were talking the flare on the new well and the size. I was looking at my 2nd largest loss in active stocks and thought maybe I could take the loss before they would announce the well results. Wrong. So, I bought back. I have almost recovered my original losses and doubled the original shares. But, back to your thoughts about why they weren’t calling it by name …. I don’t know. (Not much help but possibly of interest)
Good discussions going on ceo.ca NG Energy. 4 times average volume today. concerning Doc’s portfolio on ceo.ca: that particular portfolio shows Gasxf as his only oil stock…but he has other portfolios.
Powell’s Pavlov’s dogs did a big red candle hit on gold when Powell began speaking. Nobody asked him to sling more smoke and mirrors. Everything that happens in the World like a birth of a porcupine is bad for gold. Get a hook … play an old movie … do an infomercial on the virtues of abstention from twistlers …anything but let him ramble.
“Support” must have been hit in the Powell monotone pronouncements … gold is recovering. Time to pull the cord on the Fed Speak.
Hi Wolfster. No reason in specific we didn’t mention it was (GASX) NG Energy. Actually Doc Jones and I had talked about that big 49% pop just a few minutes before recording that interview, and then he just referred to it generally in the flow of the discussion.
Sometimes we get into a lot of specific company info and name names, and sometimes we just talk about companies in a more general fashion to illustrate trends we are seeing in the sector. That’s all it was.
K. Thanks. I just feel bad for any newer listeners who now get to see us chat about the big pop they missed out on. Had I heard the interview sooner I would have added the name in the comments section …… oh I forgot the 😏emoji up top where I feel bad for newbies who missed out. 🤪
We talked about GASX a number of times on the show and on the blog, with Doc Jones, and have even had the company on the show before. There was plenty of time for people to get positioned before this recent pop if they were opportunistic during the sell down.
GASX went up further 19% today
Good job Powell!
I’m not sure it was a “good job” by Powell, but the 75 basis point hike as anticipated by the market, so more of a status quo decision by the Fed today.
However, it should be noted that the PMs are up, as are the PM stocks. All in all I’m happy I added to about 30 positions earlier in the month, and am pretty happy I wasn’t listening the looping “Sell, Sell, Sell everything!!!” guy the last 2 weeks. I trimmed back 5 stocks that had run last week, to raise a little capital to deploy if we saw a selloff this week, but left most of the positions in place to keep riding the bounce. Many miners have had a nice rebound during the last 2+ weeks, so once again he was a nice contrarian indicator. 😉
I was saying good job to Powell as there was a Gold reversal while he was still talking. I have had some good movement of many of my metal stocks today in double figure % and NG Energy is showing the bunny in it
Update: Looks like the guys in the paper NG market have decided to hit back NG … over 2% at this point.
Yeah, it was nice to see the PMs respond with the rest of the markets with some buying today.
I really like this picture but let’s see how the week ends:
Good chart Matthew. Yeah, it would be nice to see GDX bounce and close above those anchored VWAPs to end the week.
I’d also like a bit more follow through on today’s bounce in the PMs for the balance of the week, as sometimes we see some headfakes coming out of the FOMC meetings. Still, what happened today with the 75 basis point hike was mostly priced into the market already, and we didn’t see the 100 basis point hike about 1/3 of market observers were pricing in, so no real fireworks or deviation from their plan. Most markets were in the green today on that news.
High inflation and rising rates remain bad news for conventional stocks but not for gold/silver and their stocks. Those who believe that the action lately proves otherwise are mistaken.
11 days ago I said:
HL is at or near a low whether it’s the final low or not.
IPT:GDX bottomed a month ago and is up 37% since…
IPT:NEM also bottomed a month ago but is up 65% since.
Seems to be some positive interest in miners in the After Hours markets. Somewhat unusual ….
It’s likely a continued short-covering rally from people that were caught wrong-footed, listening to those that felt the PMs can only go down.
Most definitely. Let’s see whether miners hold their lows. I did purchase some.. playing for a relief rally which I think can go a lot higher than most people think.
HL closed above its 40 day EMA for the first time in 3 months. It is such a clear buy that a failure here would be extra bearish…
The big test will be in the 5.30 area where there’s 100 and 200 day MAs along with fork resistance.
Hope so, I bought HL, PAAS, SAND, EQX
The RSI has made a higher low and a higher high since bottoming 2.5 months, a bullish divergence from price.
Uranium also seems to have finally bottomed out and possibly looking to run again.
Good point Wolfster. The Uranium stocks seemed to put in another short-term bottom in early this month and have been trending higher throughout the balance of July. We’ll see if it’s got some legs to it.
Monday marked Brixton’s highest close in 16 months versus SILJ.
Gold Isn’t Good For Anything
Robert Sinn @Goldfinger – 21 Jul 2022
“What is this dense shiny rock good for anyway?!!!”
“The answer is that gold is great for jewelry, watches, and has many uses in electronics (cell phones, electroplated coating on connectors and contacts, etc.). However, gold as an investment is an entirely different story, and it is its role as a portfolio diversifier (‘non-correlated asset’) and store of wealth by investors that drives its market price on a daily basis.”
“Ultimately gold is a monetary metal that performs best during times of weak (weakening) economic growth and increasing money supply, as fiscal and monetary policy actors attempt to counter economic weakness through lowering the price of money and stimulating demand. This is what we witnessed from the end of March 2020 through late-2021.”
> Why didn’t gold go up if we just went through a perfect time to own gold?
>> “The answer is that it DID go up, a lot!”