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Jordan Roy-Byrne – Recapping The Recent Bounce In Markets While Macro Signals Remain Mixed

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us for a discussion on what key macro factors or trends he is watching to inform Fed policy, and how that create an environment where the precious metals will be able to diverge from the broad US equites, and begin a true secular bull market in the PMs.  Overall Jordan is not that encouraged by the relief rally we’ve seen in most markets, especially in light of a weaking economic backdrop; but we’ll have more clarity in the next 2 months about if the markets top out at resistance and roll over to start the next leg lower.  If the markets don’t roll over, and economic data improves, then it will give the Fed more cover to keep hiking longer than some expect.

 

The conversation then turns the precious metals bigger picture setup, and what conditions would need to be in place for them to truly diverge from the general equities.   One of the key takeaways Jordan highlighted, is that if the Fed does start to cut rates again next year, then clearly that would indicate overall weakness in the economy; and so while all market may initially get a bump, this would still be longer term bearish for general stock markets and bullish for gold, silver, and the mining stocks. We wrap up by getting Jordan’s technical thoughts on the rally we saw in gold in July, and the bullish monthly hammer candle, but he is less optimistic that it resolved in a way that will lead to another sustainable move higher in the medium term.

 

 

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily gold.

Discussion
34 Comments
    Aug 03, 2022 03:32 PM

    Confronting A Professional Gold Trader – Robert Sinn (aka Goldfinger)

    Soar Financial – Aug 1, 2022

    “In this episode of #SFLive, we are confronting Robert Sinn aka Goldfinger on CEO.ca and @CEOTechnician on Twitter about how Rick Rule is putting people to sleep, gold marking a major turning point, fed fund rates, market sentiment, and investor behavior.”

    https://youtu.be/H5Fe2hu8Gpw

    Reply
      BDC
      Aug 03, 2022 03:41 PM

      Bored? It’s the banality of bottoms!

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        Aug 04, 2022 04:31 AM

        +1 Yep. People so easily lose focus during corrective periods and investor sentiment is so fickle.

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      Aug 03, 2022 03:09 PM

      More Fed babble, if The Fed was abolished I don’t know what most of these interviewers would talk about. For me I get more satisfaction out of listening to an interview when the participants avoid talking about The Federal Reserve and instead try to look around at the World and add their own insights on how they think it is affecting investing. DT

      Reply
        Aug 04, 2022 04:06 AM

        The central bank policies, due to their intervention in the markets, are a prime mover, or more importantly market participants expectations of what Fed policy will be. It affects interest rates, currencies, and liquidity, so like it or not, what the Fed or ECB or Bank of Japan or Bank of England etc… are doing does play a heavy hand in the markets, so even if looking it at the world to draw insights, it is hard to escape their influence.

        Look at the effect their dozen years of easy money had on juicing the markets since 2009. Look at the effect their tapering and rate hikes have had on all the markets this year, as the free punch bowl was pulled away and as their quantitative tightening by reducing their balance sheet is going to dry up even more liquidity.

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          Aug 04, 2022 04:58 AM

          I agree Ex, but what you mentioned is in the past, we all know what has been going on with The Fed. The Fed is beaten, they can do very little without bringing about a crash. The Fed can no longer stop speculation, or the credit situation in The US. All The Fed can do is sit patiently waiting for the speculative situation to cure itself. When they raise rates as they have just done recently speculation will be affected only momentarily. All they are doing is patiently buying time while inflation rages. Business, the government, and the public are forced to pay the higher rate. They have trapped themselves and are no longer important. There is no way out of this deflation except through disaster, but most of The Fed babble doesn’t talk about what I have mentioned, the interviewers just keep babbling on as if this tweak and that tweak has a significance or some mysterious effect. The Federal Reserve is no longer an important element in these markets that they have created but can’t solve. THE FED is beaten, there is no way out of this disaster except through deflation. The interviewers that keep thinking the fiddle faddle that is now coming from The Fed has some meaning, either lack imagination, are bored, or just don’t get it. That’s why Fed babble is now useless and meaningless. DT.

          Reply
            Aug 04, 2022 04:04 AM

            While I agree with some of the overall points you are making about the Fed being beaten and that they are stuck between the bookends of inflation on one side and recession on the other, but it is clearly not all in the past, nor is it meaningless.

            They are currently still hiking rates to try and squash demand and bring pricing inflation and speculation down, but all while not getting too aggressive or it would create an even worse and deeper recession.

            It’s not just the Fed either, but also the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, etc… that are all engaged with monetary tightening polices. These policies, and investor speculation about where they are taking global economies are still having a current effect on the markets.

            The markets are forward-looking at what the Fed does next at their September meeting and rate hike, and possibly 2 more smaller hikes in Nov & Dec are still yet to come.
            More importantly, the “pause” and the eventual “Powell Pivot” reversal of monetary policy and rate cuts in 2023 is what most are keenly awaiting, as people believe it will inject more buying the markets. Just the messaging from Jerome Powell last week at the press conference about these topics caused a very obvious effect in most markets going up substantially, as did the weaker GDP number for Q2 which will make it even harder for the Fed to keep hiking aggressively into a slowing economy.

            Those actions are not in the past, and are something most of the markets, financial media, and most people we speak with are watching very closely for the future as prime movers of capital flows.

            Aug 04, 2022 04:05 AM

            Ex, Another reason that a lot of interviewers keep babbling about The Fed is because they have a huge portfolio of indigested securities that they want to cash in at higher prices, so they keep hoping that there is a way out of this mess, no matter how troubled their mind may be. They are not going to say much of anything that will be contrary to their holdings. That is human nature, but a side that as investors we must also be aware of. That of course would be one of the main reasons that most interviewers are watching very closely for the future. DT

            Aug 04, 2022 04:33 AM

            Yes, most of the market participants, that are invested in any sector (many that are likely stung by the pullback since the end of last year), are absolutely awaiting the Fed to become more accommodative again in 2023. This would be for all investors though shorts and longs and those in cash on the sidelines. The markets are like addicts looking for that next liquidity hit, and the central banks are their dealers.

            If anyone is invested in the markets, or on the sidelines in cash waiting for a signal to get back into the markets, then they are keenly awaiting any shifts in central banks monetary policies, as it has been the biggest force in the markets since the Great Financial Crisis. If people are talking about the Fedbabble, then it because they realize for better or for worse everyone else is also watching this charade play out.

            If a full-on depression does eventually develop… (waaaay too early to know if that is the case), because we’d have to see back to back recessions extend for several years…. then it will be due in a large part to the central banks monetary policies and government fiscal policies having driven the markets over the edge of cliff. To ignore their influence would be to one’s peril.

            Aug 04, 2022 04:40 PM

            When I say “The Fed”, I use it loosely. It can mean Central Banking domestic or abroad, it can mean the member banks, it can mean IMF/BIS, it can mean Treasury/Fed, it can mean money printing or “under the table” bailouts of domestic or foreign corporations, it can mean special interests, or trading arms like the NY Fed or money going to the Exchange Stabilization Fund or funds melting through a Federal Agency, or off balance sheet derivative debt funding, or funding felony fines or other criminal activities that we are unaware of because they are protected from audit.
            But it is easier to say The Fed or Central Banking. Stereotyping corruption so to speak.

            Aug 04, 2022 04:54 PM

            Yeah, that makes sense for simplicity sakes Lakedweller2 (to corral the corruption), but personally, when I say Fed in an interview or a written response, I’m talking specifically about the US central banksters and their governor goons and 12 banks. I like to separate out the ECB or Bank of Japan or Bank of England, etc… separately to discuss the effects on the Euro, Yen, or Pound. As for all the other bankster cronies… they are just part of that network of financial malfeasance, and sing from the same song sheet.

            Aug 04, 2022 04:59 PM

            DT – just a heads up that you may enjoy the interview from today with Erik Wetterling, as he discussed why he doesn’t care about the Fed, or macroeconomic news, or even technical data points for his approach to value investing. He points out that most of the markets are trying to guess if and when there will be a “Powell Pivot” and then further guessing about what effects that will have… which he doesn’t see as solid investing thesis.

            Just thought you might like that we had that different perspective featured today as well. However, we also have one from Craig Hemke coming up where he highlights why following the Fedbabble is germane for investors because so many algos are keyed to phrases and data points. We are trying to showcase different points of views and different ways of investing.

            Aug 04, 2022 04:07 PM

            Ex, don’t get me wrong I think you do a wonderful job, but human beings can’t possibly handle all the things that are going on out there now. When there is a panic it will spill over into other markets, foreign stock exchanges, the lesser Canadian and American exchanges, even into soft commodities like the grain markets. Nobody will be able to escape the demoralization. NOBODY! DT

            Aug 04, 2022 04:17 PM

            DT – thanks for that kind feedback, and yes, there is really too much for anyone or any group of people to keep up with, and if we do get blindsided by a black swan event, like the pandemic crash or the breakout of war in Ukraine, it can temporarily swamp all other influences, both fundamental and technical. If we see everything get flushed down the drain in a big “sell everything” capitulation, then yes, nobody will be spared (except those that shorted the markets).

    Aug 03, 2022 03:42 PM

    I hope the fed wins and we get a soft landing and stock market recovers slowly going forward.
    Maybe inflation starts to cool off and with strong economy hold up gold has made it’s run from 2015 to new highs in 2020 and the last 2 years of consolation is just new start of bear market.
    This would benefit all people of all classes especially the lower income and retirees. Besides your only suppose to have 20 pct in physical gold, silver as hedge and 80 percent will benefit from a good economy and stock market.
    Hope and pray gold tanks or we could be headed for a major global crisis. All countries have way too much debt.
    Besides If your following Jordan portfolio you earned nothing from gold run up 2015-220 march crash, he didn’t take no profits only sold out entire portfolio when he was approximately at break even, all big gains for 5 years gone.
    Now he bought back in again after March 2020 crash and here we are again watch his portfolio give back all profits from march 2020 lows, if that was real money portfolio you got very little to show for past 7 years. Just look at the portfolio archives and see money invested and compare.
    Facts don’t lie. Poor newsletter.

    Reply
      Aug 03, 2022 03:47 PM

      It might be more productive to aim some criticism toward Central Banking Market Intervention. Jordan is trying to predict someone else’s agenda.

      Reply
      Aug 03, 2022 03:34 PM

      Higher gold is the solution since it will liquify the system when it is properly priced. It is way too cheap relative to the Fed’s circulating debt paper that sheeple call money.

      Reply
    Aug 04, 2022 04:41 AM

    Same ol, same ol …but spread’s are wide. They are trying to get cheap shares.

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    Aug 04, 2022 04:20 AM

    It’s interesting that IPT hit its June 7th level last week while all the ETF’s are still way below their corresponding levels. For example, GDXJ would be about $40, SILJ $12, GDX over $32 and the HUI about 260.
    So which bellwether is correct, widely followed NEM which would have already hit $67-$68 (now $45) had it matched IPT? All things considered, I think IPT’s message is the correct one: the sector is going higher.
    NEM crashed more than 30% in 3 weeks vs SILJ but should now do a little catching up.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM%3ASILJ&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37598978580&a=1210551779

    Reply
    Aug 04, 2022 04:26 AM

    Not the kind of hole in the ground a miner wants to create……

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________

    Lundin Mining shares fall after large sinkhole develops near Chile mine
    Shares slumped to their lowest value in a year

    Naimul Karim – Aug 02, 2022

    https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/lundin-mining-shares-fall-after-large-sinkhole-develops-near-chile-mine

    Reply
    Aug 04, 2022 04:28 AM

    Gold back above $1800 (currently at $1802). Here we are again…

    https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold

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    Aug 04, 2022 04:42 AM

    SILJ has again touched the fork resistance that stopped it on Tuesday…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p94358384587&a=1149776311

    Reply
    Aug 04, 2022 04:05 AM

    It’s easy to see why K92 pulled back where it did and I do not consider the pullback bearish.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KNT.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p63536201476&a=894594506

    Reply
    Aug 04, 2022 04:11 AM

    I think the “talk” of the inflation (infrastructure) bill has the MMs trying to get cheap shares and prove that the “paper price” is meaningless unless it suits their purpose.

    Reply
      Aug 04, 2022 04:57 AM

      Forgot about the employment #s tomorrow also. Seems things are getting a little difficult for the interveners. They are in Court, massive debt, inflation out of control, general markets dropping, Putin blowing up people, Nato expanding, all the paper metals up….Time for a new approach from Central Bankers.

      Reply
    Aug 04, 2022 04:40 AM

    Good drill results out today for Emerita and it was taken down. So … I added. I had sold down my position as price dropped, but news today plus the growing expectation on battery metals, made me add back some of my position in expectation of things to come. I traded off some gold explorers that weren’t as far along in discovery.
    NG Energy that was hanging negative all morning popped to positive. Maybe this afternoon will generate some positive action.

    Reply
    Aug 04, 2022 04:29 AM

    When some thought Hecla was going much lower based on a big obvious H&S top pattern on July 16th, I posted the following chart and said that it was at/near a low. It has shown decisive power since and has taken back important support-turned-resistance…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&id=p11804008538&a=1206811097

    Reply
      Aug 04, 2022 04:50 PM

      some always comes at the bottom, saying, price will be cut in half.

      Reply
      Aug 04, 2022 04:56 PM

      HL management has never impressed me–diluting at bottoms and making acquisitions at tops, like most dumb money managers. However, picking up AXU for pennies was a great move and should really give HL a nice beta–they did the opposite of what they typically do, which bodes well.

      Reply
    Aug 04, 2022 04:19 PM

    Here is a good spread that just popped up: Nine Mile Metals, Bid: .1405 Ask: .2302
    Things that make you go hmmmm….

    Reply
    Aug 04, 2022 04:44 PM

    Interesting day: Paper Metals positive, dollar down to about everything, bitcoin down and oil down. So I guess that makes metals stocks correlated to oil rather than paper metals. Must be some bad employment #s tomorrow. The inflation bill is being voted on in the Senate on Saturday. Bunch of suspect activities all the way around.

    Reply

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