Craig Hemke – Seeing Through The Fed Messaging and Illusions To The Actual Financial Reality

Craig Hemke, Editor of TF Metals Report joins us to discuss the dichotomy between how the Fed and main stream financial media are presenting the health of the economy, versus the actual macro data we see coming in.  We start off looking at the recent market optimism based on messaging that inflation is coming down and we aren’t in a recession due to the recent strong jobs report, but upon peeling back more layers of the economic onion, we point to many other data points suggesting we are in an economic contraction already.


Next we pivot over to how the HFT algos trade down gold based on the so-called strong US dollar, but then point out it is still being eroded by 8.5% inflation, and is only strong in relation to other more troubled fiat currencies being debased even faster. We discuss how gold is near or at highs in most other currencies, and that ultimately it will rise in dollar terms off the back of the inevitable Powell Pivot 2.0.  We wrap up looking forward to the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium next Friday, and other economic data points on the horizon in the weeks and months to come.


Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report.

    Aug 19, 2022 19:39 AM

    Without Any Legislative Powers, the Fed Is Rewriting the Law and Creating a Permanent $500 Billion Bailout Facility for Wall Street

    By Pam Martens and Russ Martens – Wall Street On Parade – August 8, 2022

    “The Fed is doing something it’s never been allowed to do in its 109 years of operation. And, it’s doing it without any pushback from Congress.”

    “On July 28 of last year, the Fed announced that it was creating a $500 billion permanent bailout facility for the trading houses (primary dealers) on Wall Street to support “smooth market functioning.” The Fed gave the facility the bland sounding name of ‘Standing Repo Facility’ or SRF. What the Fed was effectively doing was creating a new “discount window” where both Fed member banks and Wall Street trading houses could obtain billions of dollars in cumulative loans if a liquidity crisis arose.”

    “The resolution issued by the Fed in conjunction with the announcement indicates that the $500 billion ceiling can be ‘temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.’ That means that Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who just recently started a new four-year term, has the power, without any advice and consent from Congress, to throw unlimited amounts of money at the trading houses on Wall Street.”

    “The resolution also puts this unlimited bailout facility under the auspices of the New York Fed – the same regional Fed bank responsible for the majority of the $29 trillion Wall Street bailout during and after the 2008 financial crisis.”

      Aug 19, 2022 19:09 AM

      Alf Peccatiello – The Fed and ECB Are ‘Choking’ the Economy; Horrific Winter Awaits Europe

      Stansberry Research – August 17, 2022

      “Finally we got a slowdown in the momentum of inflation,” says Alfonso Peccatiello, publisher of financial newsletter The Macro Compass. And he says most of this reduction comes from energy prices and commodities. He believes the Fed’s tool is one big hammer, “that consists of a combination of raising interest rates and reducing the balance sheet.” Peccatiello continues on, touting long-term bonds as a good bet because, “the Federal Reserve and ECB are willing to choke the economy right now.” As winter approaches, “Putin will probably squeeze [energy prices] for Europe even further,” Peccatiello concludes.

    Aug 19, 2022 19:42 AM

    The Fed Issues a Warning to Member Banks about Engaging in Crypto Activities

    By Pam Martens and Russ Martens – Wall Street On Parade – August 17, 2022

    “After crypto has blighted trust in the financial landscape of the United States and left tens of thousands of Americans as victims of theft, or locked out of access to their money, the Federal Reserve has finally found the courage to take on the loud-mouthed crypto hawkers and issue a warning.”

    Aug 19, 2022 19:47 AM

    On The Money — Housing Market Shows Signs Of Weakness

    Karl Evers-Hillstrom – Mon, August 15, 2022

    “The housing market index calculated by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo dipped six points this month and turned negative for the first time since May 2020. The eight-month streak of declines marks the worst stretch since the 2007 housing market crash.”

    “Nearly 7 in 10 home builders surveyed said that higher interest rates are the driving force behind weaker demand for houses. One in five said they had to reduce prices over the past month to boost sales or prevent cancellations.”

    “Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said in a statement.

      Aug 19, 2022 19:39 AM

      So, we are in a housing recession, and we had 2 negative quarters of GDP contraction, and the PMI numbers fell below 50 (which is a bust level on the boom/bust scale)….. but remember, “we are not in a recession because we had a strong jobs number last week.” 😉

    Aug 19, 2022 19:09 AM

    (IAUX) (IAU) i-80 Gold Reports High-Grade Gold in Drilling at Ruby Hill – 426 Zone

    16 Aug 2022

    – Results Include 13.9 g/t Au over 13.4 m, 9.7 g/t Au over 23.2 m & 15.6 g/t Au over 12.2 m

      Aug 19, 2022 19:11 AM

      Rocks And Stocks News – (IAUX) (IAU) i-80 Gold Hits High-Grade Gold At Ruby Hill Project

      Aug 17, 2022 – Allan Barry Laboucan

      “i-80 Gold (IAU.T and IAUX.NYSE) is on a growth curve similar to a young Barrick. In this interview we discuss the recent results from their Ruby Hill project which is becoming their number one project. They have a modest valuation and are setting the stage to become a multi-billion valuation company.”

        Aug 19, 2022 19:20 AM

        I remain quite impressed with i-80 Gold Corp (IAUX) because they are in that bucket of growth-oriented gold producers, similar to Calibre (CXB), Karora (KRR), Superior Gold (SGI), Mako Mining (MKO), Steppe Gold (STGO), and Minera Alamos (MAI) – all of which are going to be massively increasing production in the next 1-2 years, and all of which have very intense exploration strategies to continue growing their resources and reserves into development of new minable deposits.

        Personally, I have been increasing my positions in those companies over the last few months during the recent corrective moves in the PM stocks, because my thesis is that they will have good leverage to rising prices like most companies, but have built in “probable growth” in production, and aggressive drill programs. Some of them are still suffering from perception problems from a few years back, even though anyone that has taken a closer look at their strategies heading into next year 2023-2024 can see they will be much different companies by that point in time, with bigger production profiles, and bigger reserves in the ground. By this time next year, some of these companies should be raising the eyebrows of more analysts and more investors, but I prefer positioning in them when they are still out of favor and mostly ignored.

    Aug 19, 2022 19:29 AM

    Germany PPI Inflation At Record High

    RTT News – Aug. 19, 2022

    “Germany’s producer price inflation accelerated unexpectedly to a new record high in July, primarily driven by higher energy costs, data from Destatis showed on Friday.”

    “Producer prices grew 37.2 percent year-over-year in July, well above the 32.7 percent surge in June. Economists had forecast inflation to ease slightly to 32.0 percent.”

    “Further, this was the highest annual increase since the survey began in 1949,” Destatis said.

      Aug 19, 2022 19:53 AM

      37% inflation in Germany…. wow!

      Don’t worry though folks…. according to experts back in Feb/Mar of 2021 – inflation will just be “transitory” due to a few short-term supply chain bottlenecks and it will clear up by the summer of 2021… Oh wait…. nevermind… looks like it was stickier than most people’s short-term attention spans…

      A large part of this is due to the high Nat Gas prices in Germany. Maybe they shouldn’t have shot their mouths off about shutting down their nuclear plants to go “green”, as they have completely failed as far as their energy policies. After failing with Solar/Wind, they ironically started importing Nuclear energy from France and started buying Coal. In their brilliance, as a solution, they decided to become totally dependent on Nat Gas from Russia, even though many countries warned them it wasn’t a good idea to put all their eggs in that basket.

      Boy… who could have seen this coming? (only anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together).

      Now they are conceding that maybe, they should keep their remaining 3 nuclear plants in operation instead of phasing them out. (ding, ding, ding – sure took them long enough to come to their senses)

    Aug 19, 2022 19:44 AM

    Even when The Holy Roman Empire was in decline they gave their peasants “Bread and Circuses”. Circuses are everywhere these days, look at the political situation, it would be funny if it wasn’t real, instead it is painful to watch. There are no longer “Checks and Balances” in The US, the media is owned not by the public but the 1% that controls The Government. You may not get the circuses if you can no longer pay your cable provider, and the cost of bread is going up so fast that one wonders how they will put food on the table. The monarch has no clothes and it is clear to all. This is the season when there is no reason. DT

      Aug 19, 2022 19:05 AM

      You left out one very important factor in an empires decline and destruction: the decadence.
      Every empires decline was preceded by immorality, decadence and other filthy stuff that destroyed the fabric of society.
      “Woe to those who call evil for good and good for evil”, said Isaiah. Well, we are seeing that today, as we saw it in other ancient empires right before the fell. And as usual the 1%:era are behind it.

        Aug 19, 2022 19:45 AM

        Ditto Batt………… no doubt about that ……….

      Aug 19, 2022 19:20 AM

      For better or worse, Russia is now the keeper of Western Civilization.

        Aug 19, 2022 19:37 AM

        Funny right…I agree….no woke twisted libtard religion over there…Probably their benevolent tyrant model of gov. is working better than our two party one gang system…..

        Aug 19, 2022 19:47 AM

        Russia and Putin are just horrible and evil. Think about it:
        – they think a marriage is between a man and a WOMAN (yea, they are able to define what a woman is unlike others in the US)
        – they promote the core family, values
        – they take Christianity seriously
        – they want to protect their children from LBTQ propaganda. They don’t want teachers to persuade their children into changing sex, esp without parents consent
        – they punish criminals and pedos
        – they want to control their borders
        – etc etc

        Truly horrible…

    Aug 19, 2022 19:34 AM

    DXY weekly…Almost at a TAS profile top where sellers predominate 108.39…

    Aug 19, 2022 19:36 AM

    See you all Monday. Same market intervention.

      Aug 19, 2022 19:40 AM

      Don’t forget to check out the KER Weekend Show (prior to Monday).

    Aug 19, 2022 19:07 AM

    I believe that “The Crash” I see coming is going to start in Europe with a European Bank, probably an Italian Bank or a Greek Bank. That will detonate a Western tornado that will hit Wall Street. DT

      Aug 19, 2022 19:36 AM

      I know it’s serious and dire wherever you look, but I can’t help to notice that everyone and their dog is expecting a crash now.
      So the contrarian in me thinks it’s not going to happen, but hey, I’m more wrong than right.

      Part of me is saying that the Demonrats have something up their sleeves, they want to push the markets higher so that they can show ppl that they are doing good. A tell is that they changed the definition of recession and lying about other statistical crap.

      Another part is saying that they just don’t give a fukk about ppl (a fact btw) and want this to crash and burn so that they can introduce BBB-ish.
      It’s probably the easiest thing, and then to blame the FED.

      But again, what do I know…

        Aug 19, 2022 19:03 PM

        Battaglia, fascists are in charge and their idiot supporters are all leftists (of course).

        Biden’s big spending bill takes $80B of OUR money to hire more IRS agents … to take more of OUR money and snoop on what we share on Venmo/Cash apps. They are not going after the wealthy. They’re coming for small businesses, entrepreneurs, and hardworking Americans – Tulsi Gabbard @TulsiGabbard, Twitter, August, 9 2022.

          Aug 20, 2022 20:14 AM

          ” Battaglia, fascists are in charge and their idiot supporters are all leftists (of course).”
          Hahaha!! If i could upvote that comment I would +1000.

          It’s funny how the morons first went ballistic over Trump, then COVID, the Ukraine, then … well, just put in anything WEF/NWO tells them to in that list. (There were a lot of other crap even before that.)

          It’s really visible and painfully obvious for those who are able and want to know, how the DeepState changed from being “Republican” to now leftists Demonrats. When the “real” left (anti war hippies and others) were against wars, pro personal freedom, pro civil rights, against state interference etc, the DS was positioned against that. Now, all of a sudden, it’s quite the opposite. How can they not understand this? Well, they are useful morons and hopelessly programmed. The leftists who know about this DS transformation. are in on it and steering the other lemmings.

          Today’s leftists are, as Lenin called them, useful idiots and they will march to their death when they are no longer needed, loving and defending their Soros/Schwab-paid executioners.

      Aug 19, 2022 19:42 AM

      Yep. We are back to watching for one of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) banks to go belly up.

        Aug 19, 2022 19:40 AM

        I vote Italy as Draghi just ran away…although it should be Deutchebank.

    Aug 19, 2022 19:15 AM

    gdx some intra-day buy signals…took it…glta

    Aug 19, 2022 19:43 AM

    will dxy roll over here just before reaching the TAS profile top of 108.39?…the high so far is 108.215…that is pretty close!…for a trader…lmao

    Aug 19, 2022 19:15 AM

    Day NEM …It has formed an RSI-14 divergence w the previous low of 44 price on 7/24….very telling imho…glta

    Aug 19, 2022 19:46 AM

    Jackson Hole and the usual seasonal pressures look like more of a concern this year (though not to me) so good volume probably won’t return to the sector until after Labor Day regardless of the price action.
    The complexion of the gold sector has definitely improved and yet another down day today doesn’t change that (beyond the short term of course).
    I don’t recommend trading based on the parabolic SAR but noticed something interesting regarding it:

    Aug 19, 2022 19:56 AM

    SILJ:GDX could fall another 3-4 percent from here and it would still just amount to a bullish backtest of the nearly 1.5 year downtrend that it broke out of. It is currently at its 100 day EMA and has the 100 day SMA and fork support nearby. It’s worth noting that SILJ:GDX went up up 20% in 3 weeks and is currently still up 12.5%. This measure of “risk on” vs “risk off” looks better now than at any time since it topped well over a year ago.

    Aug 19, 2022 19:21 PM

    Ichimoku cloud resistance helped to stop SILJ as well as SIL, GDXJ and GOEX. It was the safest/highest quality miners (like those found in GDX, HUI and XAU) that never reached the cloud before turning down.
    Gold and silver both performed in line with the smaller cap miners and reached the cloud.

    Aug 19, 2022 19:30 PM
    Aug 19, 2022 19:43 PM

    Silver:Gold is still above its 5 lowest daily closes which all happened last month.

    Aug 19, 2022 19:48 PM

    IPT filled a big gap today and might need to attempt a retest of its July low.

      Aug 19, 2022 19:29 PM

      Hi Matthew and any other investors following (IPT) Impact Silver.

      We just posted a 20 minute interview we did with Fred from Impact Silver, and he goes through the production operations, Capire development project that may potentially utilize ore-sorting technology, and 3-4 key exploration targets for the balance of the year and moving into 2023.