Jordan Roy-Byrne – Ugly Chart And Monthly Close Under $18 Set Silver Up For A Potential Move Down To $14
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review his technical outlook on silver, gold, and when they will diverge from the general equities markets. We start off by getting his technical levels to watch for support in silver down around $14, now that we saw a monthly close under $18 and with such an ugly chart. Next we pivot over to gold, and where he’d see support coming in if things were to break lower. We then get into a larger macro discussion about the nature of the bear market in PMs and general equities, how long it could last, and what catalysts would cause the precious metals to diverge from US stock markets.
Click here to visit The Daily Gold website and keep up to date on Jordan’s technical outlook.
The Fed is boxed. Any decision is wrong unless there is a reset. I am sure they want the first domino to fall in someone else’s sandbox….then they will act too late as they didn’t see it coming.
To the penny silver’s low today happened at the Fibonacci-based 233 month moving average:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&yr=19&mn=11&dy=0&id=t9172361420c&a=570135236&r=1661988609849&cmd=print
2 interesting charts to look at for gold : the 244 SMA and the 94SMA and their touch points. I’m tranched @ $17.20, $16.60 & & $16 + premiums. Of course who is to say that $11.70 isn’t in play with the Goldman’s, Morgan’s & Citi.
Correction: Above comment was for Silver, not gold
Of course the 244 & 94 SMA are Monthly touch points
Thanks.
It’s a good sign that SILJ is still 5.5% above last month’s low even though silver took that low out today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88138509034&a=1236226397
Of course “good signs” don’t guarantee anything.
Even better, SILJ:GDX is still over 15% above last month’s low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=18&id=p47513833245&a=1223550651
Matthew, do you see SILJ getting down to the $5 area?…my bet is that it eventually will, come tax loss-selling season….
Possible double bottom for Silver vs Gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71519308132&a=1144482232
It is also positive that silver did not make a new low vs the best money, gold.
Tomorrow, Friday 9/02 will be an interesting day for metals with the jobs Report
Gold has now almost completely filled its 7/28 $32 gap (measured from the 7/27 close) as it reached “the 1720 area” that I mentioned a week ago:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=10&id=p00324301612&a=1232021571
Matthew, you can throw out all your charts…here’s what you need to look at. The bottom is in when both Silver/Gold ratio & DXY hit 120 around same time…..there you go, saved all of us a lot of time.
Lol, I think you mean the gold-silver ratio since 120 ounces of gold to 1 ounce of silver is probably not going to happen.
The silver-gold ratio is currently 0.0104 so I think I’ll throw out your prognostications before any of my charts. Thanks anyway though. 😏
Btw, you don’t understand inflation or the rising interest rates that comes with it if you are already worried about another 2013.
Another weak day for CRB vs Gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=15&id=p53483642211&a=1123440412
Matthew, watching The Price Of Gold go up and down like a yo yo is frustrating, when will we see a Pop in the precious metals. These days it seems to be The US dollar that is affecting precious metal prices, the dollar can’t go up indefinitely. When do you think we will get some relief? Thanks DT
DT, sentiment is now supportive of a turn immediately as it is about as negative as it was at the flash crash low of 2.5 years ago. The caveat is that even the worst sentiment can’t make further downside impossible and crashes often do begin at oversold readings. The bright side to immediate further downside is that sentiment would get even more supportive of a strong rise of the multi-month variety.
Gold tested the 200 week EMA last month so maybe now it is going to test the 200 week simple MA which is now slightly above gold’s correction low so far. There is precedent for the “need” to test both of them as we saw the same with the 600 week MAs years ago. In late 2015 gold broke its 600 week EMA on a weekly closing basis but was unable to do the same with the 600 week SMA below it until almost three years later (when both MAs were much higher) which marked the very important low of 2018 at 1167.
If the 200 week MAs are broken along with the 2021 low, we will get more drama in our miners but it would probably be brief under these circumstances. From there we would get a worthwhile intermediate rise at a minimum but it would probably be the beginning of something bigger.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p51656997455
The worst thing would if all of September is bad and we end up with an ugly quarterly close.
Thanks for the prompt reply, much appreciated Matthew. I think we all benefit from your expertise. DT
This is all very hard to witness…It will pass and then the bet against america plus the now old indebted declining west, in general, will eventually succeed…But as you see, not easily….Ultimately no one knows exactly how this will all play out…It is hard for me to imagine a world where the USA asks for and demands assistance and requests permission and must co-operate to get along…I actually think it is here now and that the hang-time will eventually just vanish…glta
D.C. AG sues former MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor For Tax Evasion
David Hollerith and Alexis Keenan – Wed, August 31, 2022
“The Office of Attorney General for the District of Columbia (OAG) is suing former MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, claiming the billionaire bitcoin influencer has “unlawfully deprived the District of tens of millions of dollars in tax revenue.”
“The lawsuit, brought based on an investigation following a whistleblower’s suit against Saylor, also names MicroStrategy (MSTR) — the publicly-traded cloud data company turned largest corporate bitcoin holder that Saylor co-founded — as a defendant, alleging that it conspired to help him evade taxes he owes.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-saylor-sued-tax-evasion-dc-212626974.html
So, gold & silver getting clobbered, just as Doc & Joe predicted. Inflation on the prowl, what difference does it make?
( Portfolio dipster dumpster trash bin) Smells like teen spirit…
The ones I like most and mention regularly are still well above their July lows…
SILJ +5.5%
HL +15%
IPT +16%
KTN +21%
BBB +22.5%
ASA +7.3%
Buzz, your comment on the Joe/Doc contra the herd prediction not a favorite here.
Aussie miners close Thursday down 4-10%
The point made by Jordan on SENTIMENT…He thinks that like other productive bottoms the retail speculators must be crushed to like net short, basically….Maybe EX could ask what that looks like on the $BPGDM indicator…Or do we just need access to a sentiment.com subscription?
Hi Larry, I’ve talked to Jordan in the past off-mic about the BPGDM Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index, and since it is more of a breadth indicator, he doesn’t place much importance on it for sentiment, but I do as it is instructive when the whole sector is oversold or overbought. Dave Erfle puts more value in it and we”ve noted it in both a few prior interviews on the KER and also in discussions off-mic.
The BPGDM was down at a reading of 10 in early to mid July (after hovering around 13 for a few weeks) so I had added to a number of positions late in the first week and into the second week of July, and then we saw a 4 week rally in many of those stocks.
It is not a precise timing tool, as it can stay at negative or positive breadth readings for a few weeks, but when it gets to extremes, it can be instructive. For example, when the BPGDM was flashing 100 for 3-4 weeks in July of 2020, I had noted the gold stocks had become a frothy overbought sector, and I started trimming back positions. As we know most things topped and turned down a few weeks later in August of 2020 and have trended lower the last 2 years. So in a similar sense, the really low readings we saw in early July were a signal that accumulating more in gold stocks there was not buying them when they were pricey, and longer term should look like good value when we look back at this period in a year or two.
As for sentiment there is the DSI Daily Sentiment Indicator, but I believe you must be a subscriber fir that data.
Larry – Here is a good discussion between Goldfinger and Bob Moriarty discussing the very low readings in the DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) so a very timely discussion.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Bob Moriarty: A Major Low In Precious Metals Is Imminent
>> Bob Moriarty: “Well, as you are well aware I track a variety of things that measure sentiment. But the one that I give the most credibility to, and your timing on this is perfect. We’re doing this conversation on Wednesday and as of Tuesday, the DSI for gold was 11, and it was 9 for silver. Silver’s down about 2% today. Gold’s down a few dollars. So certainly the DSI for silver will go lower and it could go lower for gold. Anything below 10 tends to, it will always mark a major bottom. Now, if it went down to say 6 or 7, that would just be a screaming opportunity. So I happen to believe we’re days or minutes away from a major low.”
> Goldfinger: “What time frame are you talking about? A couple weeks or a couple days?”
>> Bob Moriarty: “It literally could be today or it could be within the next week. I don’t see it going much beyond that.”
> Goldfinger: “This is a really interesting situation because it is exceptionally rare to see the DSI for both gold and silver fall below 10 simultaneously. There are so many indicators are lining up simultaneously that are pointing to an overbearish sentiment extreme. I want to mention a few things that add some weight to the idea a low in precious metals could be imminent. The futures commitment of traders data, the CoTs, as of last Tuesday, shows that commercial traders have covered almost their entire net short position in silver futures. And then looking at the open interest in precious metals futures, it has fallen significantly. The open interest has fallen substantially in the last several months.”
http://energyandgold.com/2022/09/01/bob-moriarty-a-major-low-in-precious-metals-is-imminent/
According to someone on another site the DSI is now at 9 for gold and 9 for silver. We don’t need any lower than that to have a very significant low but of course that fact doesn’t mean that we can’t go lower.
In addition to sentiment, many other technical factors are at levels/readings not seen since 4 years ago and in some cases many more years than that.
OK EX……I am going to study that site sentiment .com or what ever…See what the costs are to join etc…Yes, I would post the readings here on site…lmao…..Plus look into the DSI thing…Never heard of it…Many Thanks EX…glta
To an algo, the dollar is up again. All the rest is smoke.
Matthew-
I’m watching this chart. When RSI gets in low 30’s, I would start deploying in AEM, PAAS, HL, AGI
The daily chart looks ready for some relief…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p32696367839&a=1109754834
If these two are the target you’ll get your lower RSI reading:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76150190739&a=728079605
Well we have our lower low in silver now.
I suspect we are within a week or two or three of making a major low. For me, this is not surprising at all. One stock I am watching is PAAS, which I think is a buy now, but it could drop into the $13s in the next couple of weeks.
Even if you miss buying the ultimate low, I don’t think there is any rush to get into PAAS as it may be rolling across the bottom for a few months IMO. A conservative approach would be to wait for a solid weekly close above the 20 WMA before getting long.
The same is true with silver itself–a weekly close above the 20 WMA should mean the absolute low is behind us.
I am adding to Santacruz. It keeps going lower (as well as everything else). The recent earnings looked pretty good and got trashed. So it seems to be overly punished as things go. Stillwater Critical continues its mistreatment. I continue to attempt to add District Metals but the MM doesn’t like to trade on OTC or wherever he works. Normally I give up after a few hours of bidding more than the ask and add to one of the other miserable stocks I hold. Keep those algo trades and shorts coming.
I think I mentioned adding to i-80 yesterday. Their recent drill results continued their pattern of good hits, and since they continue to go down in retribution, I do rebalancing to add there.
I did it…just cause… I moved my Empress to Santacruz and Stillwater C.
Good thoughts Lakedweller2. I am looking at adding more Santacruz potentially today as well, and have considered adding to my Stillwater Critical Minerals, but since that is more battery metals and PGMs then I think the priority right now is adding to the PM stocks first. Silver is crapping the bed, so there are many names starting to look attractive for firing off some dry powder, but there are so many to pick from it is hard to narrow down which companies should get the extra capital, balancing the technicals and fundamentals.
Things are bad enough that buying in this range is prolly a good idea, IMHO…
Ex:
Thanks for the feedback as always. Toward end of day, I added to my Nevada Sunrise and Brunswick Exploration. Both getting a lot of volume interest.
But Barrick Gold collect 5 percent dividend while you wait
If you invert NEM it is in blow-off mode. Would you buy this chart or sell it?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24ONE%3ANEM&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p28774766401&a=1220061406
Covid low is the high volume characteristic that stands out….That low typically does get retested…If on light volume you will get a the buy flurry….And this monthly view is getting oversold…The weekly has a fresh TD9 count of 3 this week…and sorry to say the weekly swing low to high 1.618% expansion is at 31.73 which is near the monthly swing low…I have no idea what will happen…It needs to be respected….Especially during the next equity leg down…imho
There’s always plenty about charts that should be respected but aren’t. For example, the peanut gallery crowd here should have heeded the weekly reversal of late April but instead foolishly made fun of technical tools like the pitchforks from which that reversal began.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p57351829156&a=1197925784
I said around May or June that it could be mid August before we bottom if we didn’t take off very soon and I also said more than once that there’s real crash potential but those things don’t stop me from reporting other possibilities. If too many people expect a retest of the 2020 crash lows it probably won’t happen so it’s best to be open minded.
Matthew, I have a large bid for NEM at $38.78.. What are the odds?
CaliJoe, that’s a tough one. The odds are probably better than I think but it did just hit/test its final 4 year uptrend support as well as a big Andrews fork support. I’d consider buying at least some today…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69620207975&a=1087443334
Relative to its 40 week MA NEM is more oversold now than it was at the bear market low of 2015…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=8&mn=11&dy=0&id=p26023927839&a=1087879477
On that 2nd chart, notice that it reached the same fork support that was tested in the 2020 crash.
Thanks Matthew, I nibbled some NEM at close today. I’m guessing there will be B wave bounce soon.
Weekly NEM looks ripe for a major low. The drop to 40 (and perfectly to my fork support) has been technically quite symmetrical to its rise to 85. In other words, that huge 3.5 year rise has already been sufficiently corrected in less than 0.5 years. Don’t forget the fractal nature of nature including human nature and therefore price charts. Fast large declines on any scale are a feature of BULL markets of the same scale. For example, the huge fast decline in stocks in 1987 (and 2008 too) should have been bought and was erased completely in one year while the large but slow and grinding decline that began in 2000 was a bear market and new highs weren’t seen for almost 7 years.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68314265077&a=1240426234
GOLD monthly chart….confirmed ABC down…These are not common on monthly charts…They occur in bear phases…https://tos.mx/bhg4wUk
NEM:GLD just reached 30% below its 40 week MA (200 day equivalent) for the first time since the crash of 2008. The 2020 crash didn’t come close to that level and would have had to drop another 15% to get there. The “price is king” crowd doesn’t understand the significance of such things.
NEM:GLD and NEM also seem to be on a 4 year cycle with respect to weekly oversold RSI readings…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM%3AGLD&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61928500409&a=1242271352
The stock market has so many ways to make you feel ecstatic, while it steals your money. There is a thrill of watching a stock break abruptly and then recover at the end of the day. The big picture is what you can’t forget. Most investors never think the situation will get out of hand. They believe The Fed is all powerful.
Most people believe that an increasing of the rate would discourage the market, and a lowering of the rate would encourage it. But the stock market can produce a common stock mania which runs counter to all logic and economic reason. Who would ever think we would see the situation we are in now and it would get so out of hand. DT
Good discussion, and real talk from Jordan as always. Corey good question on 2013 similarity. What if the Fed keeps rates higher than everyone expects? There’s been so much liquidity pumped into the markets over the last 2 years, something we haven’t seen ever before, even in 2009-2010 with the start of QE. It may take much longer for that to be squeezed out of the markets.
Also, Tommy Thornton was interviewed the other day by Mining Stock Daily, he was asked if there will be a time that the speculators (crypto/High Beta Growth/meme stock guys) will eventually revert to PM stocks. Tommy said he didn’t think so. At the same time, I think it was Jordan in a recent article said that in the 70’s, to protect from inflation & declining rates, you had EM stocks and Commodity producers, not much of a selection. Today it’s: Crypto, Growth Stocks, PM stocks, Gold/Silver, Tips, EM, etc….PM’s may be more of a trading vehicle going forward vs. LT Investing.