Dave Erfle – Gold Bottoms In 7 Year Cycles

Shad Marquitz
September 8, 2022

Dave Erfle, Founder of the Junior Miner Junky, joins us to outline the pattern of gold bottoming in 7 year cycles, and why that has him cautiously optimistic that we will be seeing the bottom in 2022.  He points out that the precious metal bottomed in 2001 during what was dubbed “the Brown bottom” and also synching up with the end of the Dot Com bubble, followed by the bottom 7 years later in 2008 due to Great Financial Crisis, and then the bottom 7 years later in late 2015 as the Fed was about to start their first rate hikes in near a decade.    


We also recount how everyone was so sure gold was going to break above $2000 in the year 2011, and conversely how everyone was so sure gold was going to break below $1000 in 2015/2016, but neither of those actually happened. We pose the question that with everyone convinced gold is going to break below $1675 support, if we aren’t at one of those similar inflection point, and Dave lays out a number of contrarian data points that could provide a catalyst to prevent the breakdown so many are convinced is a foregone conclusion.



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    Sep 08, 2022 08:12 PM

    Who’s Going to Buy the Debt?

    September 8, 2022 – By David Brady

      Sep 08, 2022 08:08 PM

      In a recent forum post David Brady added this point:

      David Brady 8h

      “China continues to load up on Gold via massive imports and domestic and foreign-owned production. At the same time, they’re dumping US Treasuries and have their lowest holdings in 12 years. What does that tell you? It’s not rocket science.”

        Sep 08, 2022 08:11 PM

        US Government Debt Held By China And Japan

        China’s treasury holdings drop below $1Trillion to a 12 year low. (they’re blowing out US treasuries)

          Sep 09, 2022 09:46 AM

          Thanks Ex…Keep that thought reminder about debt in mind and never let it skip past us here on site…That massive USA debt market, once it is rejected by the BRICS etc…and returned to USA and not renewed or turned over that will create hell for Amerikas money laundering business…Our last main enterprise…SAD but true…This struggle is so invisible and quiet, shmukes like me, cannot see this enormous behind the scenes desperation of holders trying to dump the chit…

          Of course the economic meltdown of assets is accompanied in USA by real world meltdown of supply chains and everything else…So in my eyes the current meltdown is much more serious and real than anything in my lifetime by a signal of 5X…GLTA!

            Sep 09, 2022 09:17 AM

            Agree Larry:
            CNBS had a round table “discussion” on The Fed this morning, and it was so scripted it was sickening. Things must be bad as it was a round robin of faulty statements in support of Fed mistakes. It was like gathering the prisoners in a prison and have a discussion about unfair convictions and guilt. Nobody guilty of anything.

            Added: paper markets doing good overnight and red candles being met with more green until things got closer to US opening and more counterfeit shorts piled on. Most all paper prices for metals half of what they were in other parts of the world.

            Sep 09, 2022 09:53 AM

            The FAKE FED……….. continues …….. just more BS from the FAKERS………
            thanks Lake and larry…..for the outline……… I can not stand listening to those JERKS….
            Glad you took the time…….. appreciate….

            Sep 09, 2022 09:14 PM

            Good points guys and this is a good thread going here. The creature from Jekyll Island lives on…

        Sep 09, 2022 09:39 AM

        It wouldn’t surprise me if China doesn’t already have 25,000 tons of gold, way more than they need. China will not be shipping any of their gold holdings to other countries if ever. Their holdings already are probably so huge that this will cause an in balance for other countries who have none and are looking to buy. This is a long term problem for the rest of The World if China keeps stacking, and they will. I wouldn’t be surprised for some of the gold producing countries to start limiting the amount of gold that can be exported. DT

          Sep 09, 2022 09:16 PM

          There is clearly a shift in the longer-term accumulation and holding of the yellow metal from the West to the East.

      Sep 09, 2022 09:08 AM

      David B nails it!

    Sep 08, 2022 08:18 PM

    Aug 23, 2022 23:55 PM
    The dollar will be toast very very soon but possibly temporarily but that will give the jeti fuel to blast gold higher consecutively in the months ahead. Many of the miners have already bottomed since July and gold will put its final monthly red candle this month. Note not a new low! The miners will lead this time up..

    To those speaking of crossing averages and or spring end of first quarter before anything meaningful happens let me tell you that you will miss the current move in process. The gains in this move won’t be a joke enough to make up for losses. Just a típ lol..

    My signal continues miners and gold up to year end, then correction. Last we spoke i mentioned a pause or a month stop gap, the pattern has changed “ notice “ how i tell you before hand. So no sweat but I would be all im at this current moment.


    Sep 08, 2022 08:22 PM

    Timely call? We will see as dollar looks finished for now

    Aug 24, 2022 24:15 AM
    The dollar surely has been that rush to safety and outperformed the equities market when it was clear the fed would not help this time around so quickly. You were vocal on that for front a short while ago expressing the rate hikes and fed not letting down to possibly further down the line. The market sniffed that long ago and that dollar was the Recipient of that call.

    I agree that many technicians are set or have there eyes set on the 1.20 I was also speaking of that last week. A good old double top would be the icing on the cake for a top. I’m of the belief that the dollar will top here possibly this month or next and head down for a few months but that won’t be the end of its parabolic run. What I do like is that during that time gold/silver and miners will continue to rally. The metals and miners have sniffed out the dollar topping soon.

    In regards to the monthly candle for gold I see it ending exactly how it is today in the red possibly a red spinning top “neutral” or a doji

    Third quarter should be nice for us for a change

    Sep 09, 2022 09:28 AM
    Sep 09, 2022 09:50 AM

    ALERT! Great 2 part invaluable round table discussion ( to be continued) on about a resurrected gold standard and manipulation

    Sep 09, 2022 09:31 AM

    Thanks for your hard work Ex, I can’t listen to all yer stuff but listen to as much as I can. My wife and I work side by side in our living room so can’t have too many distractions for her in our cubicle room, haha…

    Defiance, DEF… one of my favourites that I buy under $0.30…

      Sep 09, 2022 09:24 PM

      Much appreciated Dan. Well, Cory & I do crank out a lot of interviews each week together, and the hope is that they are interesting, informative, or at least thought provoking as we try to draw out of our guests and the companies we interview some good nuggets and insights.

      Yeah, as for Defiance (DEF), I’ve still got a position in it, but not a large weighting. At this point, I’ve spread around my more speculative funds to a number of Silver developers, explorers, and even growth oriented producers with a lot of exploration upside. More or less, this has just created a personal silver mining ETF with the components and weightings that I like best for my investing goals and risk tolerance.

      Wishing you good trading sir!

    Sep 09, 2022 09:00 AM

    You will know silver’s low is behind it when it can rally enough to get the 100 day MA to turn back up.

    That being said, if you wait until that happens to buy, there is a high likelihood you will be buying near a major top and will just get whipsawed or forced to hold for a long consolidation period. As I have said with respect to the weekly chart, I expect such a rally could go all the way to the 100 WMA or just above (you could use the 400 day MA on the daily chart instead) before price comes back down. Thereafter I expect price to more or less stay sandwiched between the declining 400 day ma and a then flat to rising 200 day ma until those two MAs can cross, something that could take a number of months to occur.

    After we see the 100 day MA turn back up, I think one of the lowest risk entries will be buy silver on any test of the 200 day MA after the 100 day MA has crossed above it.

    An even lower risk buy would be to wait until the 200 day ma has crossed above the 400 day ma. A conservative but optimistic guess would be that that will occur sometime around July-October 2023, but that is really just a projection based on the slope of today’s MAs, which could obviously steepen or flatten out to a greater or lesser degree.

      Sep 09, 2022 09:09 AM

      Buying now is lower risk than the entries you’re suggesting. There’s no good reason to set the bar so high. Timing and risk management are everything in this business and the odds are now very high that silver has seen both short term and long term lows.
      If one must wait for more evidence a single weekly close above the 200 week MA should suffice as that MA happens to be at the level of an important support-turned-resistance…

        Sep 09, 2022 09:34 AM

        Looking at many of the silver mining stock charts, I agree–a buy on any weakness here will be well rewarded. That being said, I still think we could have a volatile mess on our hands between now and February of 2023.

        The more I look at the silver mining charts at least, the more I am convinced there is a huge run that will start sometime between now and the end of the year, with the caveat that there could be a violent and ugly backtest early next year before the trend resumes. I also believe that even if silver is going to be a bit hamstrung by longer term MAs, the miners are going to absolutely crush the return on silver and they could continue higher even while silver consolidates.

    Sep 09, 2022 09:48 AM

    Metals Investor Forum to start in a few minutes. You can stream by signing up at Metals Investor Lasts for 2 days and being held in Vancouver Canada.

    Sep 09, 2022 09:12 AM

    The bottom in these miners is in imo in most of them.. I agree with Matthew buying now or having bought for example Brixton at .11 weeks ago or a month ago was far better.

    Green I think we are at the same cross roads except buying now or earlier will reward you as I have repeatedly said we are going higher into December/ January possibly 3/4 month monthly green candles we will correct from there which is your whipsaw and back down argument. But getting in now will be rewarding imho. I agree it will shake many out and in it already has done that.

      Sep 09, 2022 09:47 AM

      You will never be able to time a low perfectly. I agree we are close enough. Every day that goes by without the share prices exploding higher lowers your risk.

      Sep 09, 2022 09:29 PM

      Good thoughts Glenfidish, and as I mentioned about 2 months back, I had done most of my remaining shoring up of positions the first and second week of July, and then most of them rallied from July 11th/12th – mid August. I trimmed a little back to raise some funds in about 6 of the companies I had added to (out of 29), and trimmed back 3 more since then.

      I did do a little adding of tiny tranches back in some names the last 2 weeks, and rebalanced some of the weightings in a number of gold and silver stocks to get everything in place in my portfolio for both weathering any further downside, but also positioning in companies that I’ve got higher conviction in that should get a bid if the PM stocks do take off in the next few months.