Weekend Show – Generalists Weigh In On Gold, Rates, US Markets, Cryptos and The US Dollar
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show. This week ended in a painful way for all investors as markets took a dive below key support levels. The reaction was a bit delayed from the Fed meeting but it’s clear bear market action is still the theme. Unfortunately for all of our metals investors the resource stocks get crushed at the end of the week as well.
On this Weekend’s Show we jump around to a wide range of sectors with 3 very solid generalist investors. I warn you, the outlook is not great…
Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com. Let us know what you think of this recent market meltdown and what stocks (if any) you are buying.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Rick Bensignor, President of Bensignor Investment Strategies kicks off the show by sharing his outlook for US markets, the US Dollar, gold and bonds. After the weak close to the week a lot of his lower targets look to soon be tested. It’s not a great feeling hearing these lower targets from Rick but it is a good warning for investors as Rick has been very accurate over the years he’s been on the show. Click here to learn more about Rick’s investment products.
- Segment 3 – Jesse Felder, Editor of The Felder Report joins us to focus on the bond market. As yields continue to rise this is the first time in 40 years that we are seeing a bear market for bonds. As much as the Fed is driving a lot of the bearish action there are international considerations that are amplifying the moves. Click here to visit the Felder Report website.
- Segment 4 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager wraps up the show by sharing his short term trading strategies for US markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies and the USD. It all plays into Dana’s investing playbook for this year which has been a bear market strategy. Click here to find out more about Dana’s investment services.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Torq Resources – Drill Results Expand The Initial Discovery 180 Meters At The Margarita Project, Closing $15Million Investment From Gold Fields
- Vox Royalty – Announces An Inaugural Dividend, Recapping Revenue Results and Forecasts
- Radisson Mining – High-Grade Drill Intercepts Along Trends 3 and 4 At The O’Brien Gold Project
- Kodiak Copper – Video Update – A Focus On The New Targets Being Drilled At The MPD Project
- Big Ridge Gold – Phase One 51% Earn-In At The Hope Brook Gold Project And Exploration Update
Shad and I are attending the upcoming New Orleans Investment Conference on October 12-15. We would love to see you there! It’s a great way to meet company management and spend some time in New Orleans. Click the link below to register and please let us know if you will be there so we can meet up.
Click here to find out more about the conference.
If you are still having trouble accessing our Daily Editorials on your podcast player please try re-searching for our podcast under “The KE Report”. Let us know if this does not solve the problem.
The Blue Line marks a 38.2% expansion above the box below (Green Lines).
The Hash Lime Line notes the Gap Area which requires further Painting.
Painting is the Candle Coverage required to expend Gap Influence.
Next iteration (Fall 2022) may display a dark Navy Blue Line that marks a 61.8% expansion. This area was tagged yesterday (114.67) followed by a significant pull back, leaving a Pin Bar, which could mean a short term top.
Pound slumps: Bank of England statement expected today
https://news.sky.com/story/pound-slumps-live-news-bank-of-england-may-have-to-intervene-in-early-part-of-this-week-as-pound-falls-to-historic-low-12615118
Trends: https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9
NatGas/PM Weekend Wash
or Into The Abyss
That was quite a sell off this week. It was a sell off everything
On all my watch lists every single stock was red
The sell off in PM miners started 6 months ago, e.g. some majors for example
– Newmont -40%
– Barrick -30%
– Agnico -30%
(the numbers for juniors or explorers were much worse)
How will the sell off continue?
Have we seen the bottom or is the worst still ahead?
The next three months could be difficult with two more rate hikes coming and tax loss season around the corner. I guess nearly any stock will be a tax loss candidate now.
Only to name a few
IAMGOLD is now becoming a penny stock trading around US$ 1 with only a $500 million market cap
Elevation Gold is now a single Cent stock trading at 8 cents US, a producer with a $14 million market cap. They made a $20 million financing with Canaccord 500% over the current price just in March. That shows how bad the market got in the last six months.
Yes and the irony of it all, is that gold itself is down less than a measly 6% in the past year. And this is with the competing US dollar at 20 year highs.
On a relative basis not a bad asset class, even if you only bought its peak in past six months.
As you point out, underlying gold sector equities have done the opposite in spades, until that reverses with some evident upside leverage to gold, happily sitting as a bag holder with the 25% bet from June lows.
Each his own, but having cash is what matters to take advantage of a continued equity selloff or an actual price trend reversal.
Which will happen at some point, no rush.
Any short term dollar pullback will likely tell the tale. Putin may just do it again with his misery and nuke threats. Whatever
Historical Gold Price
Performance in USD
Period Change ($) Change %
30 Days -107.10 -6.11%
6 Months -299.60 -15.41%
1 Year -98.40 -5.65%
I appreciate the show as usual, outstanding…We at this blog are performing well under stress…To be admired…Including our vetted hosts….No one knows if the FED will pivot…..In my humble opinion, if they do not pivot then they by definition they have ushered in deflation…I do not believe they want to be on record doing that…If Republicans ever get back in the saddle their constituents will scream to delete the frigin FED…IMHO…glta
Much appreciated Larry, and that is good feedback. We are blessed to have such great guests on the show and such solid contributors here in the forum.
Thanks to all the KE Report guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Rick, Jesse, and Dana.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
Ex and Cory
Thanks guys for staying on top of current issues and varying opinions. It more important than ever.
10-4 Good buddy. Yes, we try and bring on a range of opinions and vantage points, from guests that have a good track record on reading the macroeconomic, quantitative, and technical trends.
Rick, Jesse, and Dana are 3 of the best out there, and we really value their outlook. It is telling that all 3 called the bear market in general equities starting to develop in the 3rd & 4th quarters of last year, stayed bearish the first half of this year, noted the turn in sentiment in the summer where we got the bear market rally (which they correctly called as such), and now all expect the June lows to get tested, and likely see a break below that. This may not be what people want to hear for their retirement accounts, but those paying attention had plenty of opportunity to sell their general equities towards the end of last year or earlier this year or at least on rallies to lighten up, and even could have taken advantage of shorting the general markets during 2022. The market travels in both directions, and people can make money in both directions.
Looking forward to following along with these wild markets day in and day out, and we appreciate all the solid contributors sharing ideas here making us all better informed investors.
Neither Repubs or Dems are going to get rid of the Fed as that ends the gravy train and Transfer of Wealth. Never stand a chance as long as Citizens United buys the Congress. Election reform in same boat. Corruption is the Government of choice of politicians and voters. Hope your brand of Fascists control.
Just ONE TWO HEADED SNAKE PARTY……………….. way too much money in CON job GRESS….
Total perversion has taken hold of DC…….
+2
Rick Bensignor lays out his thesis for gold at 1666, and now were down near 1644. I feared the worst around the middle of last week, I imagine the interview was done on Thursday, maybe Friday, but it doesn’t matter. Stocks in the conventional markets are passing from strong hands to weak hands and have been for probably a month and a half. If you aren’t a plan man you better start thinking about what RB said and deciding for yourself, because these aren’t normal times! DT
I really enjoyed listening to Rick Bensignor, he doesn’t hedge his thoughts or say things like suppose this happens or suppose that happens, he provides a clear path in his thinking, definitely worth the time to listen. DT
Good comments DT, and yes Rick is really a sharp quantitative and technical investor, with decades of experience on Wall Street, cutting his teeth in the commodities pits, and now advising many of the larger institutions, pension funds, hedge funds, and high net worth investors. It is fantastic to have him invest his time with our audience each month.
Yes, you are correct that we recorded the weekend show on Thursday, so at the time Gold was still above $1675 support, but clearly it broke below Rick’s line in the sand at $1666, closing the week at $1655. He had made the point in the interview that there was still the chance for this to be a quick false move down as a bear trap, but he was leaning toward it being much more probable that if the line in the sand in the $1666-$1675 zone broke, that it could set up a new trading range with that level as a ceiling and the lows potentially reaching $1450 – $1370. (Yikes!)
I’ve asked other guests and technicians if it was possible that the move above $2000 in Gold both in 2020 and again earlier this March 2022, could have been a double top, setting up a longer term bear market in the PMs. While personally, I hope that is not the case as someone invested heavily in the sector, I thought it was an important question to pose to people looking at charts (supposedly without bias). Most technicians conceded it was possible, but very few thought it was likely, holding the narrative that we are still in longer term bull market (except Jordan, that didn’t think what we saw from the $1045 low in Dec 2015 – to $2089 in 2020 was a “true” bull market, since it didn’t outperform US equities in a meaningful way over that period of time). Again though, most didn’t think the move over $2000 would be a double top, and they still expect to see support come back in soon and create a short-covering rally.
I mentioned a number of times earlier in the year that I’d have preferred to see $1780 and $1721 hold in gold as they were other “higher lows,” and that I really didn’t want to see Gold even get down to potentially test $1673-$1675 key “higher low” on a closing basis (especially on a weekly closing basis — which unfortunately we just saw yesterday). It is not great for the PM sector to have seen Silver break below $21.41 or Gold to have broken down through $1780, $1721, and now $1673, as it means the multi-year trend of gold putting in “higher lows” has now been broken.
I also asked some technician about that point, as that is Technical Analysis 101, but surprisingly to me, most shrugged it off. It was strange, since the most basis form of confirming an uptrend is for a chart to make higher highs and higher lows, and a downtrend is marked by lower highs and lower lows. Over the last few years Gold put in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, and at this point, that pattern is broken, so unless we see a quick reversal in the near-term, then that would confirm we have been in a cyclical bear market since the major high in August of 2020.
Technically speaking it was not great to see the close at $1655 yesterday on weekly closing basis, confirming a new “lower low” below the $1673 level from the double-bottom in March of 2021 that has held all the way until this week. That is confirmation that the last 2 years were a cyclical bear market in gold.
I’m not convinced that means we need to necessarily have a 2013 style sell-off or that Rick’s downside targets of $1450 (the Pandemic low) to $1370 (around the old peak from 2016 and which became that overhead resistance for years) have to be the experienced, but I do value Rick’s analysis and targets. If we were to get stuck in a trading range from $1370-$1675 for years, then obviously that would be brutal for the PM mining stocks and the whole sector. We’ve already had calls for Silver go head back down $14. I see those as more extreme personally, but hey, in an all out market crash scenario where everything gets sold down, they are still a possibility worth considering.
The next month or two is going to be very critical in the PM space, because if this move down below $1673-$1675 can not be reversed up quickly, as a bear trap, then it would portend to much more pain to come in the sector. I liked Goldfinger’s target of $1625 in Gold as potential spot where buying could come in, stop the bleeding, and then cause a reversal squeezing the shorts back higher. It was also encouraging the last 2 weeks to see Silver bounce of $17.40 and then springboard back up into the mid-$19s again, but it lost $19 support already to close this week at $18.91.
There is a lot of bearishness out there, and sentiment is getting about as bad as it was in 2015 again, so that is actually a contrarian bullish signal. The BPGDM chart going down to a reading of 7 is also a contrarian bullish signal, as the market breadth in the gold stocks is fugly. There are other readings of gold stocks below their 200 day moving averages, or making new 52 week lows that are now so bearish, that they look contrarily bullish. Still, the markets can stay oversold and irrational long that many can stay solvent, so these conditions could still deteriorate further. The BPGDM could go to 0 and stay there for a month like it did a few years ago, so it isn’t a great timing tool, but at these low levels, it is definitely showing we are closer to at turn than we are a whole leg lower. So while we could still see things sell off further, scaling into positions into this weakness is a solid approach for those that like to catch tradable rallies.
The big data point coming next week for Gold and mining stocks is how they close the month of September and the quarter. We’ll see how that goes and if this next week provides gold the opportunity to get back above $1700 or $1720 as many wanted to see, but based on how it closed this week, that seems much more dubious than in weeks past.
The BPGDM is now at a lower reading than was achieved in the 2020 crash. The BPGDM vs SPX is 33% lower now than in 2020…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM%3A%24SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50350185564
Gold will probably be ok if it can simply take back its 200 week MA next week to finish the month and quarter. Smart bears would see that as a big warning.
Yeah the BPGDM is also lower than it was in 2016 when the mining stocks bottomed and surged, squeezing the shorts caught being overly bearish.
The mining stocks are really bombed out at this point.
Also in all those events when bpgdm was this low the miners had already bottomed when bpgdm went even further down to a 0 ratio. My point is the bottom will come and diverge much quicker and miners will outperform the hard asset itself imo.
Part of the cause of the sell off after Wednesday was The Fed stating they weren’t sure of the economy’s direction as wall street meltdown, worsens. When a Fed Chairman, expresses doubt about the economy, that in itself can cause the markets to spiral downward.
The days immediately following Fed gibberish should never be trusted, especially pertaining to the gold sector.
Rick calling gold market is toast. All we heard last few months gold miners are on sale we just need market crash, inflation, more spending, war in Ukraine to continue, well we got it and gold is toast and many of these juniors minors will go bankrupt or be sold for pennies on dollar. Many will have to raise money to keep drilling etc, with inflation costs the developers need 2k gold to even make those projects work. Junior miners need big bull market to be good investment if your going try to protect wealth need to have X amt of your worth in physical not these penny stocks, they had their day in sun and made good run 2015-2020 highs now it’s over, global debt crisis will bring everything down and hope it doesn’t cause a depression, maybe year in future you can try again but gold miners do well every 10 years give or take them they crash, better have cash and best investment over time bar none is stock market so when we get the bottom of next big recession you start buying it those solid names, apple, Microsoft etc and if your young enough you make a winner but older people who got greedy listening to these gold bugs are getting crushed. Sad. Thank guys like Rick waking you all up.
If markets do not tank on Monday; indeed, if they strengthen or even open much higher, then there is big news in the making: possibly the beginning moves to negotiate ending The Ukraine War.
Could it be, markets are sniffing out WWW3 and taking down everything? If that is the case, PM miners have further to fall just like prior months of 2008 and 2020 crash. Oil stocks are also telegraphing similar message.
This correction has already exceeded the severity of the 2020 flash crash in many important ways despite the shockingly low prices that were reached back then. This monthly GDX shows a few examples:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9545950623c&a=1257107284&r=1664047053762&cmd=print
It could be that The Fed agenda is not only economic destruction but also democracy. Just a strange quirk of mine but anytime someone sets some kind of transition point having the #s 666 in it, I start being cautious. Be that as it may, if next week proves to be another week of Algo heaven, then I will do some more tax selling. If WWIII ends short in Ukraine, then Ukraine is going to need a hammer or two and some nails to go along with copper.
It’s called Tikkun Olam…Wealth distribution.. Too minorities
Stansberry Research
Bert Dohmen opinion is interesting.
Gold jrs, whoooosh!
Who ever said that the other day was sure right.
ASA finally tested the fork support that it came very close to testing in July:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASA&p=W&yr=5&mn=1&dy=0&id=p11555121194&a=984955935
The TSX-V is presenting a fantastic buying opportunity but of course it could briefly get even better.
Monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=t1865380358c&a=1227129438&r=1664050052789&cmd=print
I am not joking around….Some political analysts are saying that WW111 is really unofficially activated…..This may be pathetic….But if Gold/silver spikes do the gold miners fall w the rest of global equities….I just want to know what you all think…I believe yes…They must be sold due to absolute uncertainty….
To heck with Rick Bensignor, its a great time to buy. 😉
We can always count on you for dumb comments. 🤪😉
Dumb comment?
You disagree Mathew? Not a good time to buy? You selling?
Smart has been short. I havnt seen that option mentioned here.
I havnt read every day tho.
The dumb part is “to heck with Rick Bensignor”. That comment implies that 1.) Rick is never wrong and 2.) that it is necessary to disrespect those we disagree with.
Larry:
Normally I would say that the miners have been smashed enough. As opposed to those that had a good experience with miners through March of this year,I had good gains until the last week in January when they walked it down close to 80% the rest of the year.Most of that was Emerita which had had a great move of 47% in one day in March for a glorious short squeeze which really caught managed money. It only took the markets two days to wipe it out and then make sure it never got a good move until now. Emo is still worth minimum several dollars but that is not the intent of the government or the debt ridden banks that should have failed in 2008.
The point being was alluded to today by our speakers, fundamentals and technicals may not matter. What does matter that no matter what is going on in the world a lot of charts don’t look good whether they got that way by reality or intervention.
Miners are blown out and some of them are going to be sold to nothing no matter their potential. Nothing being relative. Stillwater Critical dropped to 13 cents Friday …
If the General Markets begin a real drop and they tie the miners to the General Markets that still are up in la la land, how do they explain pushing RSIs to negative #s for miners … is that like negative interest rates.
So where can it go? When Criminals are in charge, it goes where they “take” it. The only way to stop intervention is to counter intervene … that would normally be the Law. How are the Supremes looking these days with Corporate logos on their black robes.
So, I would be real cautious until the markets show a breath of humanity or more theft. Then it will be obvious.
Gold strengthens as governments weaken.
The history of Silver , in seven & a half minutes.
ok irish and lakedweller…i studied both material presented…appreciated….no one really knows what will happen next…my charts probably are hard to read…but i have notated that /GC confluence of two ABC’s down converging near the 1560 price zone…if that is hit will a V bounce occur…no idea…glta
I will avoid full exposure to miners on the next buy…instead i will increase exposure to silver bullion 2X, basically as a hedge against some global equity dislocation…
And it’s down the tubes again for PMs and the miners.
I’ve been warning you all for months, how many of you actually listened and took the appropriate action?
No many from what I can tell.
It’s far from over.
You might think we’ve hit the bottom, that the darkest of times for this sector are about to pass, but you’d be wrong to think that.
The last quarter of this year will be a washout to end all washouts.
You will see companies in this space trading for less than cash.
You’ll even see some bankruptcies.
And no amount of Excelsior multi-paragraph, specious diatribes will stem the tide.
Strap in, it’ll be a hell of a ride.
Joe – What specific technical, quantitative, or fundamental data gives you such certainty in your thesis?
Please enlighten us with the precise details and data that leads you to this conclusion, as making such statements without such information is just guesswork.
Also thanks for not screaming in all caps like you normally do. It is a refreshing change of posting style.
You will not get any reasoning for his daily Sell Sell Sell call (or is it a put) 🙂
At least he gave a timeframe this time
„Last quarter will be the washout“
I am sure he will come back next year with Sell Sell Sell 🙂
Haha! Good points Thomas… That is because he doesn’t have any detailed technical, quantitative, or fundamental data for his bold proclamations. I’ve asked him about a dozen times to tell us how he can know for sure what is going to happen, and he never responds back with any data points or key levels or intermarket analysis or chart levels or indicators or wave counts or Fib extensions/retracement, or intermarket analysis, or ratio charts, or really any evidence, because he is just a troll gaslighting the site, pressing his bets while the trend has been going lower. That doesn’t mean it still will keep going lower, and even if it does, his bold calls are nonsense and just a wild ass guess.
Screaming “Sell, sell, sell” with no specific thesis or supporting data is the same thing as screaming “Buy, buy, buy” with no supporting data. There is a 50/50 chance you get it right, but who cares since those ding-dongs never say why in advance, and thus it is just a garbage post and noise with out the accompanying specific rationale.
Again, at any point someone with a megaphone yelling about people should be buying or selling has a 50% chance of being right, so even if that is what plays out next, it doesn’t really say diddly squat about how great their call was or how accurate they are. It’s just pissing in the wind…
Give us the specific thesis in advance and precisely why you have that opinion, or spare us the noise. Nobody has a crystal ball and nobody knows exactly what is going to happen in Q4, (despite their bravado), so those overconfident calls are just B.S. rantings of a spectator in the crowd. They are no different than some idiot at a sporting event cheering that they know the outcome of the game, when they have no freaking clue. If their team wins, does that suddenly make them a great sports analysts. Nope… just a guy with an opinion screaming into the void. Of course if their team loses then they go quiet as a church mouse, just like Joe does every time we’ve seen a multi-month rally. I guess it’s good comic relief if nothing else… 😉
Inflating Away The Debt
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (09/24/2022)
The Fed Killed TINA – What It Means For Risk Premiums
Dane Bowler – Seeking Alpha – Sep. 22, 2022
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542576-the-fed-killed-tina-what-it-means-for-risk-premiums
Buckle Up For A Hard Landing
Rick Newman – Yahoo Finance – Fri, September 23, 2022
“The Federal Reserve, the markets’ BFF during much of the last decade, is now more like a frenemy. On Sept. 21, the Fed raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, as expected. It also signaled more aggressive rates hikes ahead.”
“The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish to the extent that policy needs to be more restrictive or restrictive for longer,” Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said on Sept. 21.
“Here’s what he means: With inflation still uncomfortably high, the Fed will have to keep cranking interest rates upward. That is raising the odds of a recession, including the likelihood that more people will lose their jobs and suffer the ravages of unemployment. It hasn’t happened yet.”
Simultaneous Rate Hikes Could Lead To A ‘String Of Financial Crises,’ Warns World Bank
Anna Golubova – Monday September 19, 2022
Here is a great research tool for those looking to review the 15 minute videos of the company overviews from the recent Colorado mining conference. There is an impressive list of companies that attended and presented, and just click on the “launch the presentation” links to cue up each video.
https://www.gowebcasting.com/conferences/2022/09/13/precious-metals-summit/day/1
For example, this is a link to the CXB Calibre Mining presentation from that conference.
The guest being interviewed is a beast…I may have posted this before but there is an other half due soon,,,…Literally MR> Global Copper….He lays out the progression of this descent into an 11% rates plus driven global depression…Only certain commodities will allow your families to survive…This is serious and a real chit sandwich, even if you do the right things…..The middle class will vanish and it will become a high security world…
…..EX maybe explain in your writing prose how you feel about the essential importance of exposure to gold plus certain commodities..or not…But you come up w good stuff I would not have….I am not able to express the written idea as well by a huge margin….However, what this show advances will allow your family to survive as free as would be possible in that new world…GLTA GLTA
The fact that millions are not listening to this KER Commodity show is all the proof I need…The public is going to be caught totally unprepared and sucker punched…SAD SAD….
This Is Not A Dress Rehearsal Folks
The middle class has been shrinking for the last 50 years but the big acceleration of that shrinkage began 20 years ago and is now accelerating again.
Don’t let falling stocks and bonds (paper claims) fool you into thinking we are in for a deflationary depression. Both real and government reported (fraudulent) price inflation is going to run high for years to come.
Hi Larry. Thanks for the kind words on the KE Report, and my posts, as that is appreciated.
As for what kind of exposure most people should have to commodities or gold, I’ll share a few ideas, but ultimately I believe all investing and which sectors people decide to get positioned in are 100% their own prerogative. Nobody should be telling others what they should be doing, whether that is buying, selling, or going to cash, as it is an individual quest, and everyone has different risk tolerances, time horizons, and different styles or approaches to how they invest. It is much the same as music, or films, or food, where one persons favorite is despised by another, one person’s genre of preference is the antithesis of someone else’s interests.
In my personal opinion, most people don’t have the stomach to trade the volatile commodities sector and the wild swings it has within a cyclical pattern. Be it Oil or Nat Gas or Copper or Nickel or Uranium or Lithium or whatever, most buy and hold investors are not really equipped emotionally or technically to trade either the futures markets or the volatile individual extractive companies. For most investors that want to wade into the commodities sector, then I’d recommend getting any exposure by using an ETF for the whole sector, or and ETF for each individual component sector that they want exposure to.
As for Gold, it still makes sense for people to hold a small percentage of their net worth in the physical metal or have the physical held by a storage company in their name where they could actually still take delivery. Many suggest 5%-10% of overall net worth, but few have that, as most have 0%, and then the die-hards have much more exposure than that. Again, I think that is a personal call and wouldn’t presume to suggest what others should do.
Gold is a mostly uncorrelated asset class, and “un-currency” in a way, and a way to preserve wealth over longer periods of time. It hasn’t done that well as an inflation hedge over the last 2 years, because energy stocks were much more effective, but it did do well when the Ukraine war broke out, and it does respond over time to fiscal malfeasance and bad monetary policies. It is not really supposed to be a great asset class to trade or speculate on, as it is simply a good store of value and that is the role I see the yellow metal plays in one’s mix of assets. This is why comparisons between Gold and Bitcoin fail to hit the mark, at Bitcoin is so much more speculative and seems to be correlated to tech stocks, compared to Gold’s lone ranger role. Some investors do just fine owning no gold at all, while others have done well over longer stretches of times precisely because they had outsized weightings to gold, so there is no steadfast one-size-fits-all approach.
If people do want to speculate for outsized gains, then that is where the gold mining stocks (and all mining stocks) come in. However, investing in Gold and investing in gold mining stocks are apples and oranges and totally different risk profiles, volatility, and investing styles. People erroneously lump mining stocks or energy stocks in with the underlying commodities, and try to overlay the macro narratives on micro equites. However, in stating what should be obvious but apparently isn’t…. the commodities are actually on the periodic table and traded on futures markets as the hard assets the are; while the other group of mining stocks are actually equities and companies with many more risk/reward points around management teams, capital structure, access to capital, environmental, labor, fuel, permitting, social engagement in local communities, jurisdiction risk etc…
Investing in a gold or oil or copper junior exploration company is nothing like actually investing in gold, oil, or copper directly, and an individual mining stock and the related underlying commodities can have vastly different trajectories. The macro narratives that may apply to the individual commodity (like copper or gold) may not really apply meaningfully to a drill play explorer as they are 2 very different things, with different value drivers, and different strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
I’d suggest the that closest way for people to play mining stocks to capitalize on the macro trends of the underlying commodities is to buy royalty & streaming companies, with diversified baskets of income producing revenue streams spread across dozens of operating companies, but without the same inherent risks that the mining companies have individually.
Again, I don’t think most buy and hold investors have the right thought process or approach when investing in any mining stocks, especially the explorers, prospect generators, and developers, but to a lessor extent even the producers. They try and extrapolate over the Jesse Livermore concept of “buying right and sitting tight” that works fine for blue chip stocks and general equities over longer time periods, but the error is trying to force it on a cyclical and volatile sector like commodities that is more of a giant whipsaw and game of whack-a-mole. Mining stocks or oil & gas stocks, especially the juniors, should be traded, and very few have been great longer term “buy and hold” type of equities for many years or decades at a time.
Those that use technical analysis or follow the fundamental news on companies or individual commodity sectors very closely can spot opportunities to buy mining stocks low and sell them high, but it is a limited number of folks that actually put in the time, homework, and gain the skillsets to effectively trade volatile sectors effectively. Of course, this is true of any valuable skillset attained in life and doesn’t just apply to investing, as a great golfer, or great sailor, or great chef, or great teacher, or great artist puts in many years of work, accumulates both learned knowledge and experiential knowledge, and then comes up with their own system and process. Investing and trading is no different, and most people that try to do it casually as hobby, has it cost them like a hobby does.
Investing in mining stocks is more akin to speculating in biotech, or cryptos, or meme stocks, or other hot money sectors, where the gains can be explosive, but so can the losses, and those in the sectors need to pick their spots, cut losses quickly, and harvest outsized gains when things get too overbought to take their winnings off the table. This takes experience in recognizing technical patterns, watching momentum and sentiment, and being able to put their emotions in check, and execute trades swiftly and definitively with the conviction from gained experience. Even with all that experience, it is not an easy craft to master, and that is why most fail.
What I have observed in the last 23 years of my investing journey (having really gotten going trading individual stocks in late 1998/early 1999) is that most people that try to be “traders” (including many various newsletter writers or talking heads seen in the financial that are considered the pros or thought leaders in the sector) fail at actually trading the speculative sectors they follow. In most cases it is that they are not disciplined or systematic and go with their guts, or because they are permabulls always buying and never selling, or because they are slaves to their emotions of greed and fear.
Most are victims of recency bias, expecting the next 12 months or 12 days to be just like the last 12 months or 12 days, and very few have the foresight to pick up on developing trends and skate to where the puck is going to next. They resist actually buying assets when they are unloved and underappreciated and when the valuations are low (like at present, when they are actually most attractive), and fail to sell when things are overbought and frothy (like in the summer of 2016 or 2020 or all all the dozens of tradable rallies for 1-3 months that we’ve seen over the years).
As a result, I don’t think that most generalist investors or even most longer-term value investors should likely be playing in the commodities space, or biotech space, or cryptoverse, or meme stocks, or growth tech stocks; nor should they be managing their own money. Hell, 90% of most fund managers on Wall Street or Bay Street can’t even beat the underlying indexes over extended periods of time. It’s not easy.
Wow E$x, that should be chapter one of your new book, ” Mastering The Wobble”. DT
Haha! Good one DT. 🙂
All I can say….Negotiate w Howard Kuntsler and take over his site when he steps down…GLTA…..EX for EXCELLENCE…..
Thanks Larry.
The official narrative no longer counts, we are already in a recession. The financial community hardly ever even say’s the word Depression anymore, they have removed the “D” word from their dictionary. Depressions in the past happened regularly but now the word doesn’t exist except for a faint memory. We aren’t that far from adding the dreaded “D” word back to our vocabulary. Another word that is not used as much these days is Deflation because deflation is synonymous with you got it the 1930’s and The Great Depression. Everything these days is inflation and hyperinflation, they want the public to get used to what they are trying to promote but pretend not too.
Let’s talk about inflation, we have plenty of that and it is much more serious than the official narrative. John Williams and others who calculate inflation the way they used to know that we are experiencing much higher numbers than the official narrative, at least double what the Government admits to, but nevertheless they can get all this under control with The Fed’s toolbox, not the 16%, but the 8.9% that is admitted too.
This is not about a mild recession according to the bankers which hasn’t appeared yet, we are sadly entering The Greater Depression, if you don’t realize it this is the end of The American experience.
GOOD NEWS…………… Goldbugs……….. usawatchdog……………. 🙂
Armstrong has never been more positive on buying gold. Why? Armstrong explains, “We are looking at a sovereign debt default. This is what’s going on. This is why Biden will spend whatever he wants because he knows he doesn’t have to pay it back. Eventually, this is what’s going to happen. This is Schwab’s agenda.”
Biggest theft in the history of the world … the transfer of the US Treasury to a few wealthy insiders sanctioned by the government.
For those that wonder what The Fed agenda is, or scratching your head when you hear all The Bankers and Politicians say: No one saw this coming.
That be the US of A…… Corporation govt…. in Federal DC……..
Which most do not even understand….. the banker’s hold on the sheeple has been designed to steal everything..via DEBT, unpayable , rolled over for decades……. by a select group of lenders………..
FAKE FED………….sheeple are so asleep
There is not much, if anything, fake about the Fed; however it is a mere system – a tool – which in much better hands might even work well. The problem is those who control it and the reason they do.
The Constitution enables money and wealth matters to be directed by the Legislative Branch. This immense power was relegated to a subsection. To politicians. To politicians who are influenced by… money and wealth. Flawed from the start.
A Fourth Branch, dealing wholly with money and wealth, constituted correctly, could have avoided this error. If created from the beginning or close afterward, success may have been possible. This opportunity was ultimately lost in 1913, and the death throes of ‘America’ first became apparent.
Now it’s over. Do better next time.
It’s an unsound system as well as an immoral one that is inherently unconstitutional.
It can never work well enough to justify its faults unless you believe that might makes right.
Sorry, BDC………….
LMAO…………… a “tool”……………. so is a screwdriver………..
Tools are for people to use.
They are inanimate otherwise.
Systems are similar or the same.
Yes, the FAKE FED……. has the “tools” to use against the sheeple……. lol
Don’t be surprised if the miners rise tomorrow to fill Friday’s gaps.
GDX 130 minute:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=130&yr=0&mn=2&dy=11&id=t0238410247c&a=1257378525&r=1664133454403&cmd=print
Surprise is with another gap down. Maybe this one get’s filled tomorrow or when it hits pandemic low from 2020.
The final week of the month and quarter will be a big deal for gold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p02832744153&a=1033969208
This monthly GDX chart was posted yesterday but the link expired so here it is again:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=t3880694728c&a=1257107284&r=1664139531336&cmd=print
Rule Violation: The guy in Chicago says that stuff is only supposed to be outside the Bollinger Bands a small percentage pf the time. Who is messing with the GDX. Must be Joe.
The silver-gold ratio has been acting well which is a good development for the bullish case for the sector but it has earned a rest and will probably get it now if Friday’s bearish reversal means anything…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p80174210397&a=1257527921
Friday’s ‘Weekend Wash’ may be panning out!
Maybe not. Flat.
Some up and some down. Just another Monday so far.
10 minute DXY is diverging w price w RSI w Slow stoch w MACD….a top once again becomes possible…glta
Michael Boutros (DXY 1st): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lipt0H-5V3o
Watching now (Gold 48:47).
Beautiful DXY chart at 13:10.
Unfortunately, a target from early 2021, which matches that of Boutros (1560), may come to pass. If so, it will become very solid support, being based upon two entirely different methods. https://postimg.cc/gL2ySp7n
(SGI) Superior Gold Further Extends High-Grade Mineralization, Including 10.5 g/t Gold Over 27.3 Metres in a Favourable Location to the Current Portal at Plutonic
September 26, 2022
https://superior-gold.com/news/superior-gold-further-extends-high-grade-mineraliz-122648/
Yuppers Ex, I saw that news release this morning and then I looked up the price of Superior, WOW!!! what a steal! DT
Hi DT. Yeah, it is really crazy that they just put out amazing drill holes and sold off by 5%. Granted, they did have a rough Q2 operations report, but their team telegraphed in advance that this would happen, and also recapped it after the fact and provided guidance for the balance of the year showing improvement by Q4 and heading into Q1 of 2023. I think at this point, people have made the newer team at SGI a punching bag for their bad trading as bagholders, so even when the company has a win, like these latest drill results, then that news is simply a liquidity event for more selling of shares.
If a junior drill play had put out results like that people would be going bonkers, but not for this beleaguered producer. Ironically, it is a producer like SGI that can more readily monetize results like that and incorporate them in the mine plan after doing more follow up work, over a drill play that has no idea if it will ever have an economic deposit that gets mined. However, that is the world and market we are in at this point.
In a way I like that kind of set up, because it means sentiment is pretty much washed out, and with the clear plan management has outlined to get things turned around, I feel the surprises later this year and especially in 2023 will be to the upside. Right now Superior Gold is being taken behind the woodshed and beaten relentlessly, but it does appear to be really overdone at this point. This is now a “show me” story, where the company has to prove they are getting things back on track, but at present it seems few believe they can pull it off… so max pessimism.
After doing some homework on where things are, and speaking to the company a few times, I’m far more encouraged that they’ll be on a better trajectory in a few quarters, and don’t mind adding to positions to “Ugly Ducklings” like Superior Gold down here when sentiment has soured so much. When they turn into a more appreciated Golden Swan in the next 12-24 months, it will be interesting to come back and review where things were at this point, and where investors could have been accumulating into weakness.
UUP just arrived at a big Schiff fork resistance:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27074372594&a=1257966523
/GC 15 minute…close back over that 16.33.8 swing point is not bearish at least….
GCC has tagged its rising 100 WMA after more than two years. I say it is a strong buy at this level.
That being said, in the next few weeks its quite possible it will dip below that MA. The rational thing to do would be to wait for a weekly swing low before getting long.
worth watching Green, feel it will not take several weeks to play out.
Undercut of July lows for most miners. Bought loads of NVDA, HL, AEM today.
Good luck to all.
Brixton has doubled versus GDX and GDXJ since June and nearly done so vs SIL and SILJ. Since Last November it has nearly tripled vs Impact and Kootenay.
BBB:GDX…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V%3AGDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p85624842676
Gold and silver are better buys here than commodities.
GLD:GNX
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3A%24GNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p68481887793
Matthew,
Recently you mentioned Amazon is about to put a low.. I day traded that day. But I’m going to buy at close for a swing trade,.
Actively trading it is wise. Here’s an “interesting” quarterly look:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=Q&yr=25&mn=11&dy=0&id=t4321631786c&a=1187905530&r=1664221383736&cmd=print
GDX looks worth a shot with a sell stop at a 30 minute close below 21.61
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=11&id=p73714449643
SLV:GLD is finally starting to fill its big gap of two weeks ago:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32165122459&a=1243076287
According to Plunger, PM complex bottomed two weeks ago when RSI for Silver:Gold hit below 37
I agree with that and the SILJ:GDX ratio offers another such sign.
Dollar Index : Summer’s End 2022 : Possible Gap Painting Pull Back
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/07/dollar-index-summer-2022.html