Dave Erfle – Unpacking The Further Pressure On Precious Metals Post Powell Press Conference
Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to share his observations during and coming out of the recent Fed meeting and Jerome Powell press conference, and the technical pricing levels he is watching in gold and the mining stocks. We discuss the potential for further downside pressure in the precious metals sector, the lack of interest from generalist investors, the illustrative price action in bellwether stocks like Newmont and Barrick, and the upcoming tax loss selling season. Overall, there is a lot of negative trends and sentiment in the sector, but Dave shares some ideas on how he is navigating these volatile markets.
Click here to follow along with Dave’s resource stock investment at The Junior Miner Junky website.
How do we know what Joe’s reasons were. We don’t. The way the markets are rigged, nothing is good for metals. Unless it suddenly changes. If Joe is saying he always says sell because the metals markets are rigged, then he should say so. My account is range bound and has been for some time. I know fundamentally my account should be going higher most all the time. But, it doesn’t. But fundamentally most politicians, Central Bankers and Wall Street should be in jail. But they are not. So the fact that most of the economies in the Western World should collapse due to derivatives alone and PMs should go up because of the fraud, is not a basis for Selling or Buying because of corruption. So what is Joe’s reasoning?
Joe was right, whether based on luck, deep technical analysis, or divine inspiration. The biggest bag holders for more than a year on this site heap the greatest amount of insult. Yet their profound wisdom has them in a deep hole. Just like your paid guru Paul.
Joe came on with his “Sell Everything and go to Cash” posts quite often before 1-3 month rallies since last year, and he missed each one of those trades which were far more profitable that simply running to cash that is being eroded by 8% inflation.
Since Joe provided no context (fundamentally, quantitatively, or technically) on most of his posts for over a year as to why he was saying “Sell Everything” it was simply a binary guess. He could have said “Buy Everything” and deploy all your Cash, and if we’d had a big rally, he won’t be anymore “right.”
Anyone, at any time, can come on and scream buy or sell with a megaphone, and it is just pissing in the wind, if they don’t provide context as to why they feel this way. Also to come on and implore everyone to do what some random dude on the internet says, as if there is a one-size-fits-all approach for all trader is the height of ignorance and hubris.
Those few here that are impressed by his megaphone posts yelling at us in all caps with no data or logical context, simply because we corrected further in a bear market, reveal a lot about how dim their bulbs are and that they lack discernment of signal versus noise. Joe has been all noise.
A corrective move in a bear market playing out further doesn’t change that or make him divinely inspired. Congrats, he guessed correctly on a 50/50 bet. Amazing…
As for some of the technicians being “wrong” that is a much more nuanced discussion.
Many of our guests on the show discussed the $1675 level in gold as a key support level (now short-term resistance level) because it was actually germane and there was a thought process and data behind it. That level wasn’t a random “sell everything because Joe says so” call, but rather a specific well though-out technical target. It was tested a number of times and became increasingly more relevant as well… from the double-bottom where it held in March of 2021, to the August 2021 early morning raid where it was tested and held again, to a few more tests on the intraday and even at the daily close. Just yesterday, gold shot right up to that level again initially on the Fed report language, and it acted as resistance and it turned around plunged straight down.
So only someone that doesn’t understand the purpose of technical analysis (it is not a crystal ball, but rather looking at probabilities) would say technicians were “wrong” for discussing that level, simply because gold is below it now. It was a support level, and it was relevant about a half dozen times, including yesterday when it has now shifted to resistance.
If people can’t understand the difference between useful data that is well-reasoned and how it can offer an insight, and Joes all caps demands for everyone to “sell everything because they’ll have bills to pay” is truly lost and probably shouldn’t be investing their money in the first place.
And look at the big rally today in the commodities and metals, and Gold is right back up to this key pricing level – currently at $1676. Coincidence… I think not…
Joe didn’t get it right; my portfolio is down only 10% and it is looking better by the day. Joe is predicting a market crash that hasn’t happened yet. So far, I have escaped unscathed. In a true market crash, everything gets washed down The Niagara River and over the falls. DT
Joe’s the ultimate amateur with his SELL, SELL, SELL at every LOW. He gave us glimpses of his reasoning and all it showed was a lack of technical and fundamental understanding.
Brixton’s up 81% since July. The SELL, SELL, SELL mentality would’ve been DUMB, DUMB, DUMB…
My Brixton is up about 58% in two months, it is one of my larger holdings. DT
The same goes for Hecla which is still up about 25% since its July and September lows and was up nearly 50% recently.
And you’re a pro LOL
Agreed Matthew. There are a number of stocks that are up from where he said sell, sell, sell, everything, not just in PMs, but in many resource sectors, and in the general equities. His blanket call lacked reasoning, data, context, or anything substantive as to why anyone should listen to him.
As mentioned above he’s been carrying on that way since last year and completely missed the rally from the end of the September to November, the Q1 Run from Jan through March (actually for many stocks into April), the rally from mid July through August, and the mini-rallies in September and October (often taking place right after he came on offering his financial advice that everyone should sell everything).
It’s a sad and tragic comedy that we have even spent any time at all discussing his posts, but some people are easily hoodwinked and think because he made a binary call (sell) and that since we have had a larger corrective move that somehow makes him “right” or special in any way. Well… he is “special” but not in a way that helps investors with rational thought.
Again, if he had said “Buy, buy, buy” and “deploy all your cash” without any reasoning as an anonymous guy on the internet, and we had a big rally, it wouldn’t make what he posted any more “right” or valuable to anyone with a functioning brain or any sense of discernment.
At least it is amusing to watch the “Joe was right people” chime in and display their discernment skills, and it gives us something to chat about… so there is a silver lining.
Joe can tell us what he is buying instead of telling us what to sell when he doesn’t know what we own. Something improper about that kind of comment in the scheme of things.
He’s never said what he was buying, missed many of the buying opportunities in equities that have run, or during tradable rallies when one buys low, to then sell higher as the rally plays through. All he has ever given for a timeframe even is everything will smashed to new all-time lows in December, so if that plays out, we’ll see if he comes on says buy, buy, buy… #WhatWouldJoeDo?
Joe’s SELL SELL SELL would have worked on TLT, which is down about 40% in a year.
“Sell” would have worked at the top of the housing market before the 10 year rate was increased. But personally, I need somewhere to live that is not more expensive for what you get now. If Joe had said “sell your houses now”, I still would have said “why?”.
Also: if he said sell everything, what do we do as every option has been distorted. Reasons are critical, and if Joe makes them known, then We can decide what he actually is saying and we can make our own decisions (as we do already).
Good points, but again, if he didn’t say what specifically to sell, and provide the reasoning for why his opinion is that people should sell, and provide some data or context, then why in the world would anyone give his comments a second thought? Only a ding dong would take some random guys noise of “Sell, sell, sell” or “buy, buy, buy” as anything worth even remote consideration.
Markets go both up and down, and anyone at any point, has a 50/50 chance of getting things correct if they give themselves a large runway or even a short runway. It is like betting on “Even/Odd” or “Black/Red” on roulette. If someone screams “It’s going to be Black” and then the ball lands on a black number, are they somehow clairvoyant? Nope. That is what his “amazing” call adds up to.
Thanks Ex. I am so relieved to find out markets go up also…been so long and my memory is not as good as it was. In that case “Ever Upward”! 😎
Yes, at one point what goes down must pause and then go up, and vice versa. It will be nice to see that pattern again, eh?
TBT is up about 160% for the year so that “SELL” didn’t work. Or did he mean buy TBT, since it is inverse.
Go Metals was up 125% at one time but I thought I would wait for drill results before selling it. It dropped back to up 60% but I am still waiting. It could go up more and it would defeat the purpose of buying it in the first place. I have only had Africa Oil a short time and it is up 30%, but everyone is running short of oil. I think I will try to get 35% and rethink it then. Not gonna sell sell sell.
Joe was a proponent of sell everything and cash is king….fully ignoring what inflation was doing to that cash.
Now on to more important chatter….will brixton be breaking through .20 anytime soon????……those surprise closes are impressive.
After deep and careful thought considering Macro and Micro issues the possible answer is: Why Not. It got this far.
Why not about at least half of the way today. Preopen ask is over .16 and Matthews charts think so. Let’s get +20% today. Gold up + $35 preopen … so if they can tell the algos to go play golf today …
Added thought: Saudis say they are investing into Credit Suisse which is in trouble. I wonder if The Fed is funding the Saudis or bailing out Credit Suisse under the table, making the Saudis buy a cover for misuse of Fed Funds. It may help Brixton as it all could be a diversion.
– 30% off open as algos couldn’t get a tee time. Same ol morning hit. But, a good open and may generate some pressure for a good day anyway.
Nine Mile another good start.
Emerita hit as usual to adjust my account. Takes limited effort.
Copper over + 6.5% in US and BBB hit back to Even despite already over daily average volume. Let’s see what happens next as resistance coming from the alternative universe.
Has anyone looked at Argonaut Gold lately, selling for 35 cents. Gold is currently up $40 US. DT
DT – Thanks for bringing up AR. I haven’t really looked at it since the day the sucker punch press release came out where they fired the CEO and founder of a dozen years suddenly without any explanation, and then announced the huge cost overrun at their massive Magino development project, which was billed as doubling production and halving their costs for the 2 years before that. I sold the minute I saw that news break, and haven’t looked back, as I have no confidence in the remaining board of directors based on how all that went down. However, maybe it is a case where they’ve been taken out behind the woodshed and beaten down to a level where it is attractive again. They do still have 3 other operating mines, and an additional development project beyond Magino, but they left a bad taste in many investors mouths. I’ll have another look though, to see how the valuation stacks up now versus what the assets they have and debt they’ll have etc…
Argonaut used to be a great case study for meeting guidance, hitting milestones, and growing through acquisitions and organically, and then about a year ago, they completely unraveled. This sector is full of land mines… that is for sure.
BBB looks great. It hit another 8 month high this morning and volume is already above the average for the full day with the VWAP at .195 as it “backs and fills” before going higher.
In other news:
The Canadian dollar is blasting off from a perfect H&S bottom…
My Cap off and account moving. Brixton back on track as well as a bunch of others. Game On!
It’s decade long bottoming pattern sets it up for a massive move higher. $2 cdn within 24 months.
The situation does look big-picture superb:
Gold now + $45 and I am sitting at 60% of open, acting capped.
Of course this excellent Market day has absolutely nothing to do with the elections Tuesday.
Hopefully, the miners finish the day near the top of their range today instead of the middle. Given gold and silver’s move, today is a bit underwhelming. That being said, the miners have arguably been discounting a rise in the metals for a number of months already. Also, moves in mid-tiers like AG and EXK of 10% or more in a day tend to mark unsustainable moves. Better to keep the daily gains under that level for the health of the move.
Absolutely no idea what lies ahead, but I am skeptical of moves in gold and silver much past their 100 WMAs (maybe silver can rally to about $26 on an overshoot which is obviously a very large move from here). The miners are in better shape IMO. In fact, if one ignored the metals, I could make the case for a massive move higher in the miners over the next 12-24 months.
Brixton looks like it is on the cusp of a moonshot higher. A break out past the 200 WMA with a potential backtest thereafter will set it up for an absolute monster move.
Lots of green on the screen today in the commodities sector.
Gold up nearly 3%, Silver up around 7%, Platinum up around 4%, Copper up over 7%, Oil up over 4%, Nat Gas up over 6%.
A good way to wrap up the week…
3rd walk back today.
Gold bugs have been conditioned to not give investment advice over the last decade, given the devastating bear market and basically trendless basing over the last 7 years, which has seen some enormous price spikes and equally massive retracements.
Other than telling my immediate family to buy gold as insurance, I sure as hell have not told any of them to buy mining stocks for fear that it would just be setting them up for massive losses or pathetic underperformance. Even if the HUI goes up multiples from here, I will be weary of recommending speculation in the space. Maybe its the perfect contrary indicator. I think this is going to be a pretty lonely ride higher.
FREAKY FRIDAY……… almost over and gold and sliver looking good……….
So, next week will be a big old smashing pumpkins…… 🙂
Have a great weekend……
You know it. We are used to rug pulls.
I wonder if Joe and his peanut gallery listened when I said to BUY, BUY, BUY IPT and that it wasn’t too late. He and his amateur fans did nothing but bitch and whine when they should have been buying. Irrational fear kept them from noticing or caring that IPT and much of the sector made no material new lows since June or July.
take a look at your trend setter ipt, not much of a barn burner for more than a year. one of many u should have done a BYE YE BYE for more than a year. Although a nickel recovery from its low is not bad.
Then there’s Joe with his SELL SELL SELL for more than a year missing out on the trend.
You can’t change the fact that you’ve acted irrationally for the last several months and couldn’t spot any of the meaningful positive divergences that were happening the whole time. The same goes for Joe but you were the better contrary indicator this time since he sat out yesterday’s “scary” action. Lol
I’ve been buying IPT aggressively lately since you and the rest of the herd have kept it on sale. Thanks for the ridiculousness.
Give JOE some credit he was right, many said no way he got no technical data to back him up but sometimes you just have to go with gut feeling.
Besides many technical analyst been wrong for over 2 years now, I like to know if their always quiting past markets, 1970’s, 2011 time frame etc, why didn’t they tell us to sell when inflation was taking off because in past when inflation soars gold and especially miners go down when fed has to raise rates, and then when they pivot then gold bugs get rewarded, well why didn’t they say that over year ago, because they don’t even follow their own technicals. One could have started to take profits and hang onto core holding for long term but could have used gains to buy back now and not suffer draw down in overall portfolio.
After all gold is suppose to protect against loosing overall wealth not to try and hit HR like many newsletters that pump 5, 10 baggers like Jordan R. Look at his portfolio, and I can speak on this because I was member for years, as I have in past and only get balls broken, but he invested let’s round off to approximately $150K in portfolio and it ran up since 2015 to 2020 showing good gains, but didn’t sell as everything went down into March 2020 so he sold when portfolio hit 150k, and then bought back in April to get gains right back into August 2020 and then watched again those profits evaporate over last 2 years, so over last seven years got little to show for $150k investment today. Common Man !! That suppose to be real money portfolio investment, if you don’t believe me join for trial and go back into archives and see for yourself what portfolio did during that time line.
Just like I been saying it’s nice to invest in thisarket but you still have to buy and sell like Doc, and David Erfle did not like Jordan.