Dave Erfle – Is The Bottom In Place In The Precious Metals Sector?
Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to discuss the data and macroeconomic factors, as well as technicals pricing levels that he is watching in gold, silver, and the mining stock ETFs to determine if we’ve seen a bottom put in in the precious metals sector.
Dave outlines historical periods and chart patterns that are similar to the moves we’ve seen in Gold, GDX, and GDXJ over the last few years, and then in the moves higher we’ve seen coming out of the 4-5 month consolidation sideways to lower. We also review the positive signal back in September, when both silver and silver stocks bottomed first, and then lead the way higher in the sector.
We wrap up with thoughts on if this move up is sustainable, if we need to see more consolidation in the sector to finish basing, the importance of the US Dollar as a headwind or tailwind, and what technical levels to be aware of.
Click here to follow along with Dave’s resource stock investment at The Junior Miner Junky website.
BDC – Thanks for sharing your US Dollar technical targets.
It’s been quite a pullback from 114.74, down to 105.60 yesterday, and now bouncing up into the mid 106’s (currently at 106.31).
As Dave Erfle mentioned if we go up and back-test that 109ish level in the buck, then it would correspond with a brief pullback in the PMs and mining stocks. That would be healthy to see after such a nice rip higher lately, as long as the correction doesn’t keep going and wipe out all the recent progress made.
Ex, the odds are against a break of the Dollar’s spike low yesterday, but this would open those flood gates of negativity which have been holding for so long. Awhile back Rick Ackerman’s target was 97 or so. My thinking is that a non-linear event is possible at any time, whether adequately reflected in the Dollar Index or not, which will result in revolutionary upheaval throughout the post-WWII financial world. Bugs are likely very well positioned now. – BDC
Powell’s aura at Jackson Hole was one of pure misery, as if forced, rather than resolved or committed, into doing something far from his comfort zone.
I would expect that the attendees to the G20 are sharing in some of the same misery as Powell did at Jackson Hole.
Dollar Edges Lower As Safe Haven Premium Dissipates
Peter Nurse – Investing.com – Nov 16, 2022
“The U.S. dollar weakened in early European trade Wednesday, handing back overnight gains…”
“The dollar had seen selling on Tuesday, following the release of a weaker-than-expected rise in producer prices, which added to the cool consumer inflation data last week that hinted the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking run may be near its end.”
Speaking of safe haven, there was a time when gold would have popped after the missile strike in Poland
I stand corrected sort of as it turned out to be Ukraine air defence. Still an initial pop of $30-$40 would have been the norm in the past.
I remember the days before JPM took over the Silver market and 2008 when Gold was treated as real money and a safe haven. That was preCentral Banking propaganda blitz about archaic relic.
There was one day when the news was as limited as “Iran continues its nuclear development program.” That was good for $50 in gold alone.
Once regulators, politicians and Courts elected to be influenced by money interests, whatever reality in the markets was made secondary to personal gain.
Range bound and heading to the lower part again. Same pattern, same algos, same result. Just look at FTX and you will see where the Regulators are at in Regulating.
Exceptional listen on Juggling Dynamite: Hedgeye interview on FTX debacle. Want to learn something valuable? Better listen: http://jugglingdynamite.com/
Also there is a good, detailed discussion on wealthion.com between Adam Taggart and Jim Bianco. The reach of FTX debacle is far and wide, but mostly criminal.
Several FTX articles on wallstreetonparade.com
Probably should change the site to criminalsonparade.
Multiple days of walk back … all day long after positive openings. Doesn’t appear normal to me.
MO. dollar…perfect .382 pullback off top from the swing low beginning…glta
Dollar up … doesn’t that mean the cost of metals goes up. Of course not…
Price of oil down. Doesn’t that mean the cost of producing metals goes down and profits up. Of course not…
Can’t miners adjust price of their product to adjust for costs or changes in currencies or cost of labor or cost of Gov regulation…. Of course not…
Worst performers today pushing the account red were Emerita, Stillwater Critical, Impact and Summa. Asked my Broker what happened and he said they were down because they shopped at Target.
Tax loss selling in Impact(IPT)?
Could be tax selling. It is hard to say as my account alternates days up and down. I noticed my silver stocks were batched at the bottom of the chart that tended to say to me a batched treatment. If the account activity wasn’t so repetitive, I would be open to valid market activity reasons.
Current Dollar Target Range: 107.49 to 108.93
Maximum Bearish Range: 111.17 to 112.76
(Based upon Fibo retracements.)