Jordan Roy-Byrne – Could These Macro And Technical Factors Be The Bell Ringing At The Bottom?
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to unpack the macro and technical factors that may be the bell ringing that the bottom is in for gold, silver and precious metals stock ETFs (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) charts. We start off recapping points made in the prior episodes and articles from Jordan pointing out that back in September we noted that single digit daily sentiment readings, the lowest net speculative position in 20 years, the inversion of the yield curve with the 3 month and 2 year over the 10 year treasuries, and the non-confirmation bottom in silver and the mining stocks when gold continued to make new technical lows. The preponderance of evidence is that the low in PMs is in place at this point, ending the 2 year cyclical bear market.
Next we review how the US dollar weakness has been another tailwind for the PMs, and discuss if we’ll see a medium-term pullback if the greenback starts to rise, and if we see tax loss selling hit after US Thanksgiving and heading into the first few weeks of December. Jordan feels the larger debate now really is, if we’ll see the kind of rebound we did in 2009, 2016, and 2020, and if we’ll start to see real outperformance in the precious metals sector relative to general equities and other asset classes.
He feels we may still see some basing and backing/filling for the next few months, more like what we saw in 2018 or 2001-2002, but that ultimately, we need to start seeing confirmation of gold, silver, and the mining stocks outperformance over other sectors. The crucial piece of fundamental news is still going to be when the Fed announces that they’ve done their last hike heading into the first quarter of 2023.
They Don’t Ring a Bell at Bottoms
Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA – The Daily Gold – November 17, 2022
“They don’t ring a bell at bottoms” …they run over you with a truck.
Yup they don’t ring a bell and sometimes you do feel run over by a big truck!
Great to hear from you Big Al. Hope you are doing well.
My wife passed so I could be doing a lot better. But, I will thanks for the thought.
Good point Lakedweller2.
As the saying goes we just all need to “Keep on trucking.” 🙂
I have been heading toward the light at the end of the tunnel until they turned it off.
Next Fed meeting, Dec 13-14, coincidental with a large volume sell off in the pm micro crap stocks approximately 30 days in advance. It may be that some traders have taken their tax loss selling in the last week in anticipation of lower prices after the next Fed decision, maybe a new low for some as the USD rebounds up several pennies. I anticipate at least a 50 basis point rise.
BTW, I think the Fed’s data is almost wholly the price of gold, they being fans of Volcker, that would make sense. Really, I wish for these idiots to shut the hell up and let the markets decide interest rates.