Weekend Show – Rick Bensignor and Jesse Felder – How To Beat The Bear Market
This week was a quiet week for markets, metals and currencies, giving investors time to assess the recent pops in many markets and sectors. It seems as though very few people we talk to think this is the start of a new bull market. However is sounds like there might be still be some upside before everything rolls back over.
Since bear market mentality abounds we focus this Weekend Show on how to beat bear markets.
Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email to let us know what you think of the show and any companies you would like to see us feature. Our email addresses are Shad@kereport.com and Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder and Editor of The Felder Report kicks off the show by first focusing on the current rally in the US markets and if this is nothing more than a bear market rally. We also discuss the US Dollar drop, similarities of gold currently to 2008 and where investors go if inflation does not go away.
- Segment 3 and 4 -Rick Bensignor wraps up the show with the focus being on how to beat a true bear market. His 7:11 SPDR ETF Report has beaten the markets so far this year by 514 basis points, and over 10% since inception in 2020. We breakdown the best opportunities out of the 11 SPDR ETFs, energy secotr, precious metals, energy and financials.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Scottie Resources – Exploration Update From The Blueberry Contact Zone, Map Outlining High-Grade Results With Over 7,000 Meters To Be Released
- Reyna Gold – Exploration Update On Overall Mapping, Sampling, and Drill Targeting For 2023
- Graphene Manufacturing Group – Update On The $5mil Bought Deal Financing and Answering Your Questions On The Battery Developments
- Tier One Silver – A Focus On The Hurricane Project, Sample Results From The Magdalena Target
- AbraSilver – A Focus On The New JAC Discovery, More Drill Results Including 25 Meters Of 754g/t Ag
- Golden Shield Resource – Mazoa Hill Step Out Drill Results Intersects 13.4 Meters Grading 12.24g/t Gold, Other Targets Also Drilled
- Vizsla Silver – Closed An Upsized C$35 Million Bought Deal, Drill Results From Around Napoleon and A General Drilling Update
- Aztec Minerals – Step Out Results From The California Zone Continue To Extend Gold Mineralization
- Birchcliff Energy – Company History, Current and Future Free Cash Flow Estimates, Divided Stress Test and Valuation Comparison
- Kuya Silver – Bethania Silver Project Update; Exploration At The Carmelitas Prospect, Near Term Toll Mining Options
- Webinar Replay – Awale Resources – Exploration In Suriname and Cote d’Ivoire, underpinned by a Newmont Earn in JV
Trend Quality: https://tinyurl.com/k8h8jpm9
Likely Constructive PM Pull Back
NatGas Bobs Sideways
War Over Soon?
GDX Targets: https://postimg.cc/7bTRTfbM
The November 4th rise is stair step.
The following two are abrupt.
Targets are decent.
Fibo Bogie Range: 25.29 to 24.99
Great discussion with Jesse
Sounds reasonable that the rally was just a short squeeze
Did DOC not also said that the bottoming process for gold will still continue until mid next year?
I made some early tax loss selling. Will be interesting how tax loss selling works out this year.
I like Jesses statement „cash under the mattress is the worst option“
But what should I do with my cash?
When is the washout coming?
It seems to me Jesse was talking about the stock market and not the miners. If so, I agree with him. Stocks have had a bear market rally while the gold/silver miners rallied out of what I believe is a major low.
I was again a buyer yesterday.
If stocks do manage to go much higher from here there will be a lot people proclaiming the end of the bear market and they will very likely be wrong.
GDX priced in QQQ bottomed months ago and has already gone up over 30% since:
Hi Matthew, any new stocks on your radar that you haven’t discussed lately on The Ker that you feel comfortable to share, just curious? DT
Hi DT, no I don’t have any new ones to share but most of the sector is going to perform so well that the likes of HL and even larger companies are going to perform like good juniors while good juniors will perform like we haven’t seen since the 1970s. The gold and silver miners are going to blow away commodities in general.
Of course silver will blow away gold and the silver miners will blow away everything.
For the first time since June silver has back-to-back weekly closes above its 200 week MA:
A strong pullback in SLV:GNX = a strong buy for silver.
Hi Matthew, thanks for your feedback, much appreciated. I also like your take on the silver miners in particular the juniors, interesting! DT
Looked at the holdings of SILJ and very surprised at the silver junior miners that are NOT included in that ETF.
I bought some more Impact on Friday.
Best of luck with your purchase charles!
Pull backs should be bought imo.
Thanks Glen! I am pretty loaded up. Good luck to you as well.
‘History of Asset Bubbles’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (11/12/2022)
Inflation’s Impact On Thanksgiving
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (11/19/2022)
Great show. Thanks.
Much appreciated Charles.
Thanks to all the KE Report guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Jesse & Rick.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
Our conversations with both Jesse and Rick are always very insightful, and both gentlemen have a great grasp on the macroeconomic and market forces at work.
I think it was quite significant how Rick’s position has changed 180 degrees on the precious metals, from pretty convinced that lower levels ($1450 or $1375) were in store (once Gold had broken down through $1675 and the $1661 final line in the sand he had). Obviously, gold has now clearly reversed back up substantially higher, and As a result, Rick feels that the recent move back up so firmly confirms that it was a false breakdown below $1675, and that level should now be support. He mentioned he’d feel comfortable buying any pullbacks from here (down to $1720) if the US dollar should rally back higher in the weeks to come.
In addition, Rick’s thoughts that Gold may regain more of it’s “safe haven” appeal in light of the recent implosion in cryptos was also interesting. Personally, I don’t think it ever lost it’s safe haven appeal, as evidenced by the huge rally we saw in February/March when the Ukraine war commenced, and Gold shot back up over $2000 again, but nice to hear a generalist put another vote of confidence in the yellow metal.
Gold has thousands of years of history as a store of value, and those silly TV commercials and crypto herd-thinkers claiming one should “drop gold” a few years back to jump into the new “digital gold” or “gold 2.0” by getting into Bitcoin, have seen that thesis shredded over the last few years, when the cryptos merely traded like growth tech stocks, not stores of value or like currencies.
Thanks for the summary on rick’s previous calls and the 180. When it comes to predictions or chart analyst/technical direction, i think we have all learned in are years of investments it all comes down to probabilities. The key is who or which technicians get those probabilities correct more often then none. He or she who does gains plenty of credibility like mr bitcoin garoth soloway as of late. Its never easy and the homework must be done and planned prior to.
My current views in response to bdc on the dollar is i would be slightly bias and take the current bullish sentiment and go contrarian on it. Actually in fact i did mention weeks or month back my target for the dollar was as low as 102/103 on this down move and i personally believe the dollar will then rally even if it does not go as low as my above numbers and will likely make a higher high but gold wont make a lower low it will however retest that lower breakout. we need to retest the breakout imo. we will see what happens.
The low in the miners is in imho. Once this correction finishes i believe we will have another meaningful move higher.
Hi there Glenfidish. Yes, good points on technical analysis being about probabilities, and that the technicians that have a propensity to be right more than they are wrong about these probabilistic outcomes really stand out from the rest of the pack (like Gareth Soloway and him outlining the crypto crash fairly accurately in advance, even those most of the HODL’ers were mocking his TA the whole time).
Thanks for sharing your technical outlook on the US Dollar and what it may mean for the PMs. The greenback has been a difficult one for many to call as well, with many perpetually thinking it was rolling over the whole way up, only to see the buck keep going higher and higher until peaked out recently at the 114.70 level. Many are watching 105 and 104 as a potential support level (which it did get down in the higher 105’s the beginning of last week). Whether or not it gets down to 102-103, as you are looking for or not, I agree with you that it is due for a relief rally, and may have already begun that the middle to end of this last week. Some technicians think it will rally back up to the 108-109 level before rolling back over again and heading much lower, and the other camp believes the dollar is still in a strong uptrend and is going to go up and make even higher highs (possibly up to that 120-121 level). It’s a tough call and again, most technicians and both the dollare bears and bulls have been wrong-footed on the greenback almost all year long.
Regardless, as far as Gold – it does seem like the move down below the key support of $1675 on three different occasions recently to the $1622-$1618 zone, does seem like it could be the intermediate bottoming area. If the yellow metal can hold onto most of it’s recent gains, and bottom in the low $1700’s (like that $1721 support), then that would be ideal. Gold has already tested the $1673-$1678 zone PLENTY of times now, and tested the lower $1600s in that $1622-$1618 thrice, so it isn’t necessary to backtest those levels again, and actually would be much better if it didn’t and instead put in a higher low, like silver has been doing.
There are a number of technicians and quant guys that were quite vocal that if $1675 broke again, and wasn’t quickly reversed, that the odds were a move down in Gold to the $1500’s or even mid $1400s. I felt that view was too bearish then, and still feel it is too bearish now, all things considered. However, if the US dollar was to ratchet up to 120-121, coinciding with a general market smash to new lows, then while I see it is less likely, it would still be a potential outcome. There are some that still think as the Fed keeps hiking rates in December and the 1st quarter of 2023, that there is more weakness to come in the PMs, so we’ll see if that plays out. To me, it seems much more like the forward looking markets are already eyeing the end of the rate hiking cycle in Q1 2023, and thus see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Personally, I’m very impressed with Silver, having bottomed in early September, before Gold and the mining stocks, and then lead the charge higher making a pattern of higher lows. The PM mining stocks then bottomed a few weeks later in late September and have been clawing their way higher as well since then, even when Gold was still making lower lows. That is that “non-confirmation bottom” we’d talked with Jordan and Dave Erfle and Steve Penny about a few times in Sept & Oct, even when many were still way too bearish and expecting the other shoe to drop and for the metals and miners to really fall out of bed. Remember the $14 Silver calls, and projections for GDX and GDXJ to blast down below their 2016 lows and lower? That looks to be off the table for the most part now.
Overall, the move higher in Silver, starting with that big short squeeze off of $17.40 and then into the mid $19’s was the first shot across the bow. Then the move up in the mining stocks starting in late September to present, in fits and starts, when some folks on here were advising everyone to “Sell everything and go to cash” was a nice contrarian signal once again. Since then Silver and the mining stocks did not fall out of bed and kept moving higher, that was the cue that the precious metals were holding together better than most were giving them credit for.
It looks like on Nov 4th, Gold finally got the memo and put in an intermediate intraday low at $1618, before reversing course and blasting up over $173 to $1791.80, (getting above both the 144 day EMA and briefly the 233 day EMA before retreating back down).
Like Sherlock Holmes would say when he was pursuing Moriarty, “The game is afoot”. The conventional markets haven’t rolled over yet because printed fiat is being injected into this shell game. Raise interest rates and counterbalance that by injecting money into the conventional markets.
We could see a sensational phase where The Bear Market suddenly goes parabolic for one or two days and then quickly rolls over taking everything down. DT
Gold Tailwinds Now Much Stronger Than Its Headwinds
David Erfle – The Junior Mining Junky – Friday November 18, 2022
“After an unprecedented run of seven consecutive monthly losses in Gold Futures, November has begun with a strong two-week upside reversal of $170 amid growing expectations that the Fed is edging closer to a potential ‘pivot’ away from aggressive interest rate hikes. Gold hit approximately $1620 for the third time at the beginning of November, printing a ‘triple-bottom’ which marked the end of the multi-month correction and the beginning of a rally. ”
“Last week’s lower-than-expected Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data increased the rally in gold, as the U.S. dollar sank below key technical support at 109 in the DXY. With the recent parabolic rise in the world’s reserve currency being bullion’s strongest headwind during a sharp decline from its March high, it is no coincidence that the greenback peaked on the same day gold made its late September low…”
There is a good Andy Maguire interview on GATA. Org. Should be first or 2nd up. Paper markets aren’t all they are said to be. …. Other than criminal (that hasn’t changed).
Most companies don’t consider the small shareholder, what they call The Moms and Pops, of the industry. Mining companies are doing themselves a disfavor by excluding the little guy from rights offerings through a private placement. The fat cats and the rich guys get all the advantages of being able to buy new stock at a concession in price, not to mention the warrants.
A rights offering in a Private Placement should be offered to the small investor who is already a shareholder if he can come up with an investment of between $5000 to $10,000 on a first served basis in a junior exploration company, based on market cap. Public shareholders in larger companies should be able to buy a concession in price which would be determined by a vote at an annual meeting of shareholders. This would serve the company and the shareholders. It’s time for reform of a privileged system. DT
World headed for silver deficit – report
The world is on the brink of a major silver supply shortage this year, the Silver Institute,……….
We have been hearing this for more years than I can recall, what might be interesting is this is reported on RT.
700 million viewers in 100 countries.
The dollar is extremely unlikely to make a new high anytime soon but it could have a big bounce soon.
My Kootenay position has almost doubled in the last few weeks. It jumped 53% in the 10 days that followed its October low but has now pulled back about 15%…
Those who doubt silver’s near term upside potential should obviously be in no hurry to buy it.
KTN is in SILJ but IPT, GSVR, ZAC, and other small silver producers aren’t.
That’s ok with me. IPT remains my favorite silver play and it wouldn’t surprise me if it ends up in SILJ again (which would give it a boost).
I wonder how many Tesla owners are aware of this EV risk…
Most of them with more money than sense. Aside from salt water flooding in coastal areas, there’s the range issue, especially with this big chill we’ve had recently. The interior heater draws power from the battery pack, reducing range even further, besides the effect of lower temperature.
Don’t think humans went to work today… not sure any humans work in the Central Banking system anymore. Some just look like them.
Wiped out last week’s gains and continuing the trip to the lower part of my assigned range bound existence.
No … I do not like passive investments.
Dollar Index : Fall 2022 : Bouncing Back