Jordan Roy-Byrne – If The PMs Have Bottomed, Then When Will Resource Investors And Generalist Investors Return To This Sector Again?
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to discuss both the short to medium-term outlook, as well as the longer-term outlook in the precious metals sector. We start off discussing the encouraging rally we’ve seen in gold, silver, and the mining stocks over the last few months, but that they are approaching some key resistance areas where PMs may need to correct and consolidate these moves through both time and price. We then get into continued low sentiment in the PM space, despite the recent move higher in the metals; and that the mining stocks overall have not really provided the upside leverage yet, like they will when the true secular bull market gets underway.
Jordan differentiates the nominal moves higher that we’ve seen in gold, silver, and the mining stocks since 2016, where there was still strong general equities markets, and points out that in real terms, that was not a secular bull market yet, and that the real bull market is likely just getting started. We wrap up with how he is expecting next year to play out for US equity markets and gold, and at what price levels he expects to see more die-hard resource investors return to the sector, and then after that the lagging factor in the generalist investors getting involved at higher levels.
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Click here to visit Jordan’s site and keep up to date on his market outlooks.
JRB thinks the bottom isn’t in for precious metal stocks, if the conventional market crashes precious metal will follow it down.
I believe that Gold, Silver, platinum, and palladium, will follow the conventional markets initially but will soon recover. It is the base metals that will do poorly, because the economy will be in the tank. DT
Hi DT. That’s not the take I got from Jordan, in talking to him the last few months or in today’s interview.
Jordan believes the PMs have bottomed at this point (gold at $1618 and silver at $17.40), and that when the stock markets do start rolling over next year, that gold and eventually silver and the mining stocks will diverge from the general markets and start going higher into a true secular bull market.
He was actually one of the few guests we’ve had on the show that was in agreement about the “non-confirmation bottom” that Silver and the mining stocks put in during the month of September, and continued into October and November, even when Gold kept hitting lower lows and didn’t officially bottom until Nov 4th.
Most of the fund managers, newsletter writers, company executives, and technicians we brought on the show during that time period were still concerned and convinced Gold, Silver, and the mining stocks were going to make much lower lows during that same time period (because gold had broken down through the $1675 support).
So, in that sense, I’d tip my hat to Jordan for understanding and noticing the significance of Silver and the mining stocks leading the charge higher from September to present. He even said back in September/October that “We may look back in a few months and realize that this was the bottom once Silver turned higher in early September.” — Bingo.
Hi Ex, JRB says, “Because they have rallied (referring to precious metal stocks) with the stock market they will likely sell off as the stock market rolls over towards key support levels.” “However, that is the time we want to be buyers.”
I take this to mean that when the S&P rolls over the bottom will be reached. Then precious metal stocks will diverge. DT
Hi DT. Listen to the interview above with Jordan at the (4 min 51 second mark) and he makes it very clear where he stands:
“Looking at technical analysis just by itself, you can make a really strong case that gold and silver – they’ve put in a major bottom, and the cyclical bear market is over. We’re in a new cyclical bull, and it may take a little time, but I do think we’ll confirm we are in a new secular bull in a few months.”
He then goes on to unpack that the key thing to watch for next year is for the general markets to continue correcting and for gold, silver, and the mining stocks to diverge from general US equities to the upside, and thus for the PMs to be in secular bull market in “real terms.”
Also check out his comments around the (9 min 35 second mark), where he highlights what investors should look for as far as the S&P breaking support, and where he thinks PMs will pull away from that corrective move and diverge to the upside.
I actually spoke with Jordan for over an hour today, and he is looking for a short-term corrective move, followed by break outs to higher highs in 2023 and 2024 and believes we’ve seen the bottom since September when silver and mining stocks bottomed first, and then confirmed by gold bottoming in November and launching higher by over $200. If the markets correct bad, then we may see some corrective moves in the PM sector in sympathy, but he’s not anticipating lower lows.
The vibe I got was that he thinks many of the resource investors that exited over the latter half of 2022 got out at exactly the wrong time, which is precisely what we see at bottoms. The big moves higher in the sector are coming in the later part of 2023 and 2024 where he thinks many investors will come back to this sector. He makes that point at the very end of the interview above as well.
Hey Ex, did you see that news about the stock “Influencers” on Twitter and several other social media sites were charged by The SEC for running a ” PUMP AND DUMP”. That scam is as old as the universe, and it still works. LOL! It doesn’t say much for our species! LOL! Again. DT
Yes DT, I’d seen something about that a few months back where some Twitter “influencers” were engaged in pump and dump schemes with companies paying them to spam promote companies across platforms with dubious claims in a number of sectors. I believe most of them were in the tech/growth stocks, biotech, and cryptoverse, but there may have been a few in the resource sector, as I didn’t dig in that deeply to the news when it broke. Yep, not a surprise…
Have The Winds Of Change Begun To Blow?
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (12/21/2022)
“2022 has been a difficult year for financial assets with the traditional 60/40 portfolio suffering one of its worst annual performances on record. This has many investors asking whether the damage done means stocks and bonds now offer an attractive buying opportunity. Perhaps what they should be asking instead is whether a larger regime change is underway.”
“Of course, that is a very difficult question to answer from a macro perspective but it is made much simpler by way of technical analysis and trend-following studies. In this regard, I recently wrote about the Coppock Curve but there is another way to approach the issue that is just as useful if not more so.”
“The 30-year history of the ratio of the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) to the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX – a traditional 60/40 portfolio) clearly shows there are times to own precious metals and then there are times to own stocks and bonds. Furthermore, these periods typically trend for a number of years before reversing in the other direction…”
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/12/21/have-the-winds-of-change-begun-to-blow/
Charlie Munger Fans @CharlieMunger00 – 5:49 PM · Dec 20, 2022 – Twitter:
“🧐You can buy the top 33 #Gold Miners globally for US$249b with 643m ounces of reserves worth US$1.224 trillion (at today’s spot price)”
— Source: Factset Screen
https://twitter.com/CharlieMunger00/status/1605379811060224001
Matt, Would you please look at ABX and tell me what you see. In the coming Bull (hopefully) my expectation is that ABX would at least double from here.
You’ve mentioned BBB a lot of times, what’s your projection here? I sold my last at 0,16 in April 2020 to rotate into other stocks. It hasn’t really done much until lately (almost 100% from the lows). I know you’ve been buying this really hard, what does your Palantir say?
Cheers!
Caspian, I don’t own Barrick but I think it looks good and should easily double from here within the next 12 months. Of course if I turn out to be wrong about the sector I will be wrong about Barrick as well.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=1&dy=0&id=p09803401828&a=1248420369
Brixton has a lot going for it especially during a strong bull market which think is imminent. Explorers can strike it rich in any market but I think it’s safe to say that hitting pay dirt in a bull market is much better.
.35 looks likely in the near term (1-2 weeks) with .39-.40 happening soon after. It then wouldn’t surprise me if it hits .61-.62 in January. After digesting that move for a few weeks the 1.44 P&F price objective will be in play. Like Crescat Capital I think it can go way beyond 1.44 but there’s no point in adding to my guesswork now. No price projection/target is a sure thing, not even .35 so I’d rather assess its prospects as they come.
(ORE) (ORZCF) Orezone Intersects 21.00 M of 5.35 G/T Gold at Maga Hill at Its Bomboré Gold Mine
21 Dec 2022
https://ceo.ca/@globenewswire/orezone-intersects-2100-m-of-535-gt-gold-at-maga
GDP 3Q is 3.2%….inflation is 8%…you decide….both are ‘1984’ fake revision numbers….ministry of truth statisticians earning their pay and happy to have a job…glta
Gold Update!
If it helps and makes everyone feel better and not get alarmed this current correction in gold/silver is a nothing burger to me. If you can recall i posted probably over a month ago that the monthly candle for xau/hui/Gdx could paint a red and so far its bingo! This is precisely what i was looking for within the trend im looking at. It is nothing more then a stop gap/pit stop/consolidation slight correction etc..
Im now expecting January to be big and february to be explosive.
Impact silver as i mentioned is going to take off next month and not look back. February will be big for all miners. .32 is a buy of a lifetime big money accumulating here.
You heard it here first. The dialogue lately with brixton and everyone horney on it capped it at .30 which makes sense. Contrarian view. But don’t sweat it we are headed higher and for those who are not sure when or what to do as far as exit strategy, its wayyyyy to early for that unless your a trader.
Merry Christmas to all and thanks to the crew and contributors here. Best wishes to all. I will check back in after the new year 🙂
Hi Glenfidish and thanks for sharing your technical outlook. Catch ya in the new year buddy!
Glenster,
Thanks for your post. Always appreciated.
So, are you saying that I should be adding heavily into IPT to what I currently hold now versus my original plan to do so within the first week of January?
Not sure I’d miss the bus over the brief time period of holding off, while thinking I’d reduce any potential risk of me taking a hit from a negative event occurring right after Xmas.
Thoughts?
Hi Canuck
Thank you for the kind words.
When i take a look at impact silver and the 2 year bear market we just had, you can see that it was one of the last to have bottomed. When combined with the trend lines and matthews pitchforks the .31/.32 area was of big significance. Due to the length of time of the correction and the support area of impact you can see how this area has now become major support. When you add in the most recent market structural change with major wedge resistances in many ticker breaking to the upside it more reassures me this .31/.32 is solid and im as confident in the .15 brixton support i made as iam in this one.
Now taking that all in im know guru but i stand by my call but one must ask themselves what there time horizon is. if it is long 2/3 years you will be fine with this buy at this level. if it is short then you can play it the way you said with no guarantee it wont take off soon. My signal and charts tell me its a matter of time.
hope this helps.
That totally makes sense to me Glenster.
I do plan to drop more into this one. I have a suspicion there may be a surprise event coming (though uncertain of time and magnitude), unpredicted by charting, so am trying to remain calm and strategic with the approach, especially given I have a tendency to not practice short-term trading.
Thanks for taking the time to respond.
Golds daily cycle likely topped. Wait for 5 day rsi to hit oversold and a swing low to buy the dip.
Thanks Gary Savage lol!
You can at least link to his website if you’re going to steal his work.
I reference Gman all the time. And he doesn’t own cycle theory.
SLV may need another week to consolidate before another burst higher.
Currently, price this week is still fairly far away from the strongly rising 10 WMA, which usually acts as good support and a bounce point in a strongly trending silver move, which is what we have.
On the daily and weekly chart there is absolutely no cause for concern. However, if we want this trend to continue higher in the very near term, the next two weeks are critical. therefore we could possibly see some wild moves in the next week, lower and then higher. But you never know, because as Gsavage likes to say, in a bull market, the surprises come to the upside.
The positive cross of the 10 WMA and 50 WMA for silver is a further indication of a major trend change (but by itself isn’t definitive, as we saw back in March of this year).
I am watching PAAS as a bellweather silver miner. The 10 WMA is on the cusp of crossing back above the 20 WMA, something I have been waiting to see for 6 months.
This is an extremely pivotal next couple of weeks in silver and the miners. In any other sector, you would probably see a smooth ramp higher without any drama. however, given history I wouldn’t be surprised if we get some sort of crazy headfake lower that looks extremely scary for a week or two. I’m not expecting that to happen, but I am mentally prepared for it given the track record.
Plus the weekly BB (20,2) for paas is getting narrow now and will be approaching historical extremes by next week–that is the breeding ground for headfakes.
certainly can’t go wrong predicting both upside and downside possibility. Then claiming success with the correct side of the coin. LOL
I’m not predicting both. I am firmly in the bull camp and am 100% long, so its up from here.
But yes, in the very near term (the next handful of trading days), a headfake lower is certainly possible. I’m just trying to let people know that it won’t signal a change in the major trend whatsoever and it is not time to panic. To the contrary, buy this dip. If you don’t want to risk getting left behind, but any red day IMO, but I would advise scaling in over a few days or a few weeks.
I should probably stop posting since my technical thesis is that gold is entering a bubble phase that I don’t believe will last beyond 2 years from the Sept lows. I plan to start unloading miners in size at 1.5 years out (or sooner if my financial goals are met earlier) and to keep maybe a 25% position between 1.5-2 years out and then sell that remainder at the end of that period. Could I be wrong and the bull lasts 10+years? Sure, but that’s not my thesis. Think wheat between ’06-08 or TSLA between ’19-21.
I am with Matthew on silj:slv. We don’t want to see it close below low set on December 20.
$silver:$xjy is on the cusp of breaking out of a 2 year consolidation.
Last set up that was similar was 2005 and silver priced in yen went on to go up 2.5x in about 7 months. silver in USD terms doubled.
Similar to silj:slv I don’t want to see $silver:$xjy close below the Dec. 20 low in the ratio.
Go figure, AG closed green today, just barely. Would be nice to see some positive, large follow through tomorrow.
Everyone knows my thesis. I’m all in and expect gold to spike over the next 2 years. If this spike plays out, I will be selling mostly based on time. As I said, if my financial goals are met in advance of a top 1.5 to 2 years from now then I’ll sell my entire mining position without hesitation.
I just pray that I can get out with enough time to exchange those USD for tangible items and blue chip dividend paying stocks, and that the world hasn’t devolved into Mad Max or the Dark Ages. I don’t plan on selling any bullion unless and until we hit 1:1 on dow:gold. Because of the state of the world, if we do get anything that resembles a bubble, sell miners early and often IMO because you can bet the US govt will not go down without a serious fight. Think capital controls, resource nationalization, confiscation, extreme windfall profit taxes or perhaps WWIII. Just my 2 cents. This is absolutely not “investment” advice.
Over and out and good luck.
My dad had the same advise for everyone more than forty years ago. Glad I didn’t listen.
When This Happens, New Secular Gold Bull Begins
Jordan Roy-Bryne CMT, MFTA – The Daily Gold – December 16, 2022
https://thedailygold.com/when-this-happens-new-secular-gold-bull-begins/