Jordan Roy-Byrne – Without A Breakout In The Gold To S&P Ratio There Won’t Be Legs To The PM Bull Market
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to outline that the key determinant factor for a real bull market in the gold, silver, and the precious metals mining stocks will be when gold decidedly breaks above the S&P 500 on the ratio chart. We go on to discuss how there are plenty of historical periods one can point to as evidence that the gold and silver mining stocks outperformed and diverged from the US general equities in prior bear market periods. He points out that really what we are seeing presently in the markets is more akin to what we saw play out in the 1960’s, more so than the analogies to the 1970s many pundits have put forward.
We wrap up by having Jordan address the pushback we’ve heard to this thesis, mainly that the precious metals sector can break to a new bull market without the general equities correcting or without the divergence, or that in a bear market the PM equities would just tank along with other markets in a sell everything event. Jordan outlines why historically and with the data we have, neither of those counter positions really are evidenced.
John Rubino has some nice thoughts on Dolly Varden. DT
Orea Mining (SYL-TSX-OREA) Continues to Bolster its Management Team To Focus on 5 Million Oz. Montagne d’OR Gold Deposit.
Sea Change: Gold conference AND breakout?
No. Curse continues!!
The ‘Massive Momentum Structure’ In The Stock Market Is Breaking Down, Part Deux
Jesse Felder – February 1, 2023
Big Tech layoffs could have a serious impact on culture, leadership expert says
Brian Sozzi · Anchor, Editor-at-Large Yahoo Finance – Wed, February 1, 2023
Potential culture shocks in Big Tech aren’t too hard to find.
Salesforce (CRM) — long a champion of its friendly Ohana employee culture under co-founder and CEO Marc Benioff — said earlier this month it would slash 10% of its workforce and execute select real estate exits and office space reductions.
Microsoft (MSFT) — which has cleaned up its once rough Steve Ballmer-esque culture under CEO Satya Nadella — followed that news with 10,000 layoffs of its own. And Amazon (AMZN) then revealed 18,000 layoffs, although its culture has always been survival of the fittest dating back to founder Jeff Bezos.
In November 2022, Meta (META) unveiled 10,000 layoffs. Snap (SNAP) canned 20% of its workforce in August. Both of these companies were once put on a pedestal for offering generous employee perks such as high-end free lunches.
Powell Says Fed Can’t Shield Economy From a Debt Default
Jonnelle Marte – February 1, 2023
– Fed chief said central bank will monitor money markets closely
– Chair expects Congress to reach a deal to raise debt limit
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned against any assumption that the central bank can rescue the economy if Congress fails to raise the federal debt ceiling — a move that could force the Treasury into a payments default.”
“No one should assume that the Fed can protect the economy from the consequences of failing to act in a timely manner,” Powell said at a press conference in Washington Wednesday after the Fed’s latest policy meeting. “There’s only one way forward here, and that is for Congress to raise the debt ceiling so that the United States government can pay all of its obligations when due.”
Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates Another 0.25% To Highest Since October 2007
Jennifer Schonberger · Senior Reporter Yahoo Finance – Wed, February 1, 2023
“The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates Wednesday by a quarter percentage point, bringing its benchmark rate to a new range of 4.50% and 4.75%, the highest level since October 2007.”
“In its statement on Wednesday, the central bank acknowledged the slowdown in inflation as the Fed continues to assess the impact its interest rate hikes have had on consumer prices over the last year.”
“The 25 basis point rate hike marks a further slowdown in the Fed’s pace of rate increases after the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points in December and 75 basis points at each of its four meetings from June through November — the fastest clip since the 1980s.”
Fed officials acknowledged in Wednesday’s statement “inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.”
Mentioned this earlier, Semis are unstoppable
There is a general strike in France right now because The French Government wants to increase the old age pension from 62 years to 64 years. The French Government is broke, they can’t afford to have baby boomers retiring at 64. Wait till they realize that they will have to back their own currency with gold. (The Euro won’t exist). They are reviewing Orea Mining’s Montagne d’OR deposit in French Guiana for environmental reasons and have been fighting this issue since Macron came to power about 5 years ago. The French Supreme Court has turned down the environmental issue two times and the third time is happening soon. Montagne d’OR is a joke, because The French Government will need this deposit. You can’t make this stuff up, Montagne d’OR is 5 million ounces of proven resources and France will need every ounce of it. Orea Mining (SYL-OREA) is listed on The TSX selling for nothing, it soon won’t be. LOL! DT DYODD! LOL!
Vic Sperandeo on Lead-Lag report 2/01 on YT
I posted the following on Saturday the 21st when SLV was 22.02 and two days later it fell 1.09 (5%)…
Silver has been very strong but it still wouldn’t surprise me if it soon takes a quick 4 or 5 percent dip to set a bear trap.
Hi Matthew, I recall you saying that! DT
I don’t know what tomorrow holds but weeks to months out looks superb.
I expect gold will soon take out the $2000 mark. The big gong in The Great Hall Of The Stock Exchange should be sounded out when gold hits $2000. It will be a moment to be remembered.
Looks like a good place for Brixton to turn:
Silver Santa @DirkDirkrc 7:27 AM · Feb 1, 2023 – Twitter
$SCZ.V -” Santacruz Silver does 37.3% Silver & 31.9% Zinc & 21.3% Copper. And the Silver production is rising. That’s more Silver production than First Majestic, Silvercorp Metals, Hecla Mining, SSR Mining, Coeur Mining, Pan American, Hochschild, Fortuna Silver.”
Chen Lin – Buying The Dips In Gold & Silver, China Watch
Soar Financial – Feb 1, 2023
“Chen Lin is predicting a 99 year long bull market in silver – he explains his thesis, discusses China’s influence on silver and gold. ”
99 years …. I am going to have to eat healthier.
Chen Lin – “2023 The Great Bull Market of Gold or Silver?”
Metals Investor Forum on January 27-28, 2023 #VIDEO
David Morgan – “Is Silver An Asymmetric Trade”
Metals Investor Forum on January 27-28, 2023 #VIDEO
Glenn Jessome, President and CEO of Silver Tiger Metals Inc. (TSXV:SLVR | OTCQX:SLVTF) Presents:
Metals Investor Forum on January 27-28, 2023 #VIDEO
Andrew Pollard, President & CEO, Director of Blackrock Silver Corp. (TSX-V:BRC) (OTC: BKRRF) Presents:
Metals Investor Forum on January 27-28, 2023 #VIDEO
David Wolfin, CEO of Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (TSX: ASM) (NYSE: ASM) Presents:
Metals Investor Forum on January 27-28, 2023 #VIDEO
Gold back up to $1973…
It’s intriguing to see the yellow metal getting close to that key psychological $2000 level once again, especially after seeing it dive down intraday to $1618 on November 4th just 3 months ago. (when all the calls for gold to head down to the $1500s, $1400s, and $1300s were coming from all over the place).
Also of note is the continued slide lower in the greenback.
The US Dollar is now down to 100.83.
That weakness in the buck is buoying many other markets higher as a tailwind.
Gold has been in overbought readings for a while now, but sometimes markets take things to extremes before working them off. It would not be a surprise to see Gold get capped from moving higher soon… maybe slightly over $2000. The Dollar, conversely, has become pretty oversold now, and is due for a bounce, which may coincide with a number of other markets topping and then rolling over for a little bit.
Still, one has to point out that if there is any merit to the January Effect, and the old market adage “So goes January, so goes the year…” well it looks pretty darn good for Gold and pretty rough for the Dollar. While both trends may consolidate for a bit, the larger trends do seem to be in motion as they kicked off the year.
I’d prefer gold to consolidate and not be so overbought before breaking through $2,000 again but I won’t complain if it doesn’t……have you looked at Northern Superior at all Ex. Ive accumulated some shares as I’ve reduced my gold holdings to only safe(relative term these days) jurisdictions these days. My only concern is I recently saw Grandich plugging the stock…hadn’t heard that name for a while.
We might get a day or two of consolidation but not much more than that so those who need positions should consider buying any and all weakness including the gap-filling dips this morning like this one:
*My opinion of course; I might be wrong.
Im good with any pullback that means breaking through $2,000 isn’t at way over bought territory so that $2,000 becomes support and things continue upwards from there.
Possible NatGas Bottom.
Pretty bottom SMASHED!
Made money (stops).
Michael Boutros has changed employment.
Silver up over $1 preopen with up 4% +. Even my silver stocks should be green for 15 minutes after open.
Don’t worry, the fed has yer back…
BTW, I have learned in life that the ones that say they have your back are the ones looking for a knife…
Totally false Dan…..they’ve already got the knife ….just looking for the most opportune time to use it. 😏
Haha, I think that’s more accurate.
Headlines like this don’t age well when the tide turns as quickly as this.
I was over confident. Only one silver stock in the green at open (Defiance) and less than 10 mins before account went red. The good news is the algo pattern seems similar to yesterday when it stayed negative until 2:57PM when it went green and then in the last minute went red. Down $400 yesterday and that would be a great day. I remember going to bed last night and Gold over +$30 and waking up to silver being over +4%.. The question is always the future and winners/losers are still being determined by someone with a computer.
What really pisses me off is the TSX.v index and their shenanigan’s, I bought a stock at 12.5 cents today and it is not registering as the price is still 12 cents but has registered my 10000 shares I bought.
So… who owns or has claim to those shares besides me, I can sell them but where did the exchange get them from?
I see something similar all the time, quite often when I buy a stock it doesn’t register.
I think they short the stock to me and many others and wait until later in the day and try and fill the aggregate trades at a lower price in one big trade. I thought it was illegal to short a penny stock but maybe not.
I have called them before about this but the person I talked to didn’t have an answer. So, yes, technically you can buy shares you already own if they short your shares to cover what you buy. This also skews the fundamental of economics of supply and demand when the exchange can create supply to satisfy demand then cancel that supply later at a lower cost to them.
I too have had some questionable trading in US. Sometimes when I don’t see a trade that matches mine and the Brokerage Firm price is out of step with what the OTC is showing for the US, I check the Canadian markets before making any further trades. If out of wack, I adjust the price and see what happens. Often the Brokerage price is under the market, but you can’t buy at those prices which makes me think that maybe brokerage firms are running their own markets which could be disastrous when things crash. What a mess.
Today I did a trade on Big Ridge, the bid was 12 cents and the ask was 13 cents. I bid at 12.5 and the trade went through immediately but the volume did not register on my dashboard. If I wanted, I could sell those 10k shares at my will, but where did they come from? Only the broker would know in a fraction of a second if I put in a bid for those shares. Anyone with a normal dashboard would have to see the bid come in then adjust or create a sell offer to satisfy the bid, at that time the volume would register on all dashboards, but what happened was the broker came up with the shares to satisfy my bid. Did they own them before hand or was there an automatic short to get rid of my higher bid for the sake of their supply and demand display on all the dashboards? …………. Is there a breach of SEC rules? Is this the arcade jon speaks of above? Man, if a stock can survive in this rat’s nest then it can survive on the bigger boards easily.
Hey Dan. Usually means your shares weren’t bought on the venture so weren’t recognized by it. Your shares were bought on one of the alternative markets instead.
Thus skewing supply and demand fundamentals, how this ‘other exchange’ stuff became legal I don’t know but it is exactly what I am referring too. That is their excuse for it all anyways but I question the validity of the whole operation as it appears to be a clandestine way of skewing data to the retail traders.
Sitting on 18% cash, from 12% – Jan 01, no hurry to buy, you could feel the fix happening 7 am -9 am EST, and McClellan article on 321gold – TIMELY !
SIL:SOXX looks terrible. This week looks like another kick in the teeth for bugs (what’s new?).
The damage done to the ratio since January 1 has been devastating and that peak doesn’t look likely to be taken out until late 2023 at best (or maybe never).
The fact that the silver miners can’t even outperform over valued and highly interest rate sensitive semiconductor stocks since 2020 says it all. Silver miners are STILL down over 50% vs SOXX since July 2020.
Today’s *massive* reversal in silver is just icing.
Looks like my miner moonshot thesis is about to be taken out back and shot, like old yeller.
Another year written off.
gold gets within a hundred bucks of it’s high amid jubilation of gold bulls.
The pump and dump penny arcade followers of the past couple years remain in the dumpster. Need multi baggers to break even.
Suspect gold will need to get to the stratosphere for that to happen at this rate.
Of course ipt, the bellweather is the great predictor of where we’re headed.
Love this site for the entertainment it provides.
Not sure why you are rubbing people’s noses in it. That is truly dickish.
I appreciate him popping in to mark low after low after low. He’s clueless like the herd he comes from.
Today is for buying. The odds of a big breakdown now are slim. Those who live in the moment are like animals and should find another hobby. Joe, jon syl and others showed repeatedly over the last 6 months how their emotions rise and fall with every tick so they were predictably most bearish at every single buyable low.
As for IPT, it has been more of a bellwether than jony understands. It warned of unfinished corrective business in the sector for many weeks by not participating in the short term excitement that was common and now it is hinting at the resumption of the upside action and silver breaking out while everything else is under selling pressure. For the last 2 months or so it traded mostly below .35 and did so on zero enthusiasm and low volume. Now it is well-bid and .35ish has become more a floor than a ceiling. In addition, IPT is now having days in which it finishes higher while everything else finishes lower. Today just might be one of them as it is currently flat while everything else is down 2.5 to 3.5 percent.
Of course it’s lost on the peanut gallery class that the gold/silver miners are up 50-60 percent (in general) since bottoming in the fall while the stock market is up around 20 percent.
I was hoping we would get a “smooth” ramp higher in silver for once, and yesterday really had me optimistic that silver would actually do it. I suppose this sort of whip saw action around the FOMC is par for the course.
In a vacuum of course, the mining indexes still look very good. I probably put way too much emphasis on ratio charts.
I was able to get a good trade on Magna as it had an early drop. But, the illogic of Gold being hit and Nasdaq up and a pop in the dollar and an early hit on the miners…all that makes me think it is an orchestrated misdirection across the board.
… all to be corrected tomorrow…
Nothing special about IPT. Nothing special about their facilities or their silver deposits. They are just waiting and hoping for higher silver price.
The company is in stellar financial shape and has many other positives but that’s not the point nor are its facilities or deposits. I’ve been trading it for more than 15 years and it often does move ahead of the rest for whatever reason. For example, in 2020 it topped out over 2 weeks ahead of GDX and SILJ and almost 3 weeks ahead of gold and silver. On a more micro level it routinely confirms or denies the message from the rest of the sector. Other juniors might be the same but I can’t count the number of times that I thought so only find out otherwise when put to the test.
nothing dickish with the post. It’s a fact that if you bought into the mantra of buying past lows, as is now promoted again with penny stocks which are an ultimate bang holders nightmare.
Gold is just fine and will be for some time. But that’s not what’s promoted by the group think crowd who are quick to ridicule any dissent.
Go for it Green. Mattew just gave you the go ahead with adding to yet another low in the penny arcade.
Until such time as the sector equities outpace gold on the upside and do the opposite on the downside things remain dickish.
Sorry he’s right; you’re all dick with sides of emotion and confusion. You’d have done well had you been a buyer each time you and Joe were hyper bearish. Nailing a bunch of short term lows is almost as good as nailing a major low.
Per my pitchforks that you love so much the senior golds could correct a little more before heading higher since they were the leaders but probably less than you expect and many of the better juniors are unlikely to do the same.
Yep, that darned bellwether Impact, always going down…
It is 100% still in a clear uptrend. There, I just jinxed it.
not always going down, just most of the time it’s been promoted all last year and before.
If you were the clever enough to wait since it’s last low in your timeframe, then your up a dime. congrats
That’s why in this penny arcade we have to follow sentiment so much making these stocks emotional triggers for the uninitiated, today is a ‘buy’ day IMHO.
I don’t own any again, yet, but this may be a survivor IMHO, but don’t buy now, wait till it’s over 1$…
SCZ, Santacruz Silver
I’m sorry you’re down on all the dog gold stocks you bought….. my tfsa is at all time high amount so the “group think crowd” must be getting something right. Hope your 2023 goes better….year of the wolf. 👊
Here’s another one of those terrible penny stocks…
Will be looking for more follow through to the downside in the next handful of trading days.
I’ve been expecting SIL’s and EXK’s January 3rd closing price to get taken out and thought we might have gotten out of the woods on that with yesterday’s and this morning’s action, but lo and behold no dice.
So I expect to see EXK in the $3.20 area soon. If it really breaks down further from there, my mining moonshot thesis will well and truly be over, at least for most of this year. Short of that, I am still mildly optimistic that silver miners can spike higher before gold is due for a major pullback.
Over and out.
The 3 month correction in SILJ vs GDX is coming to an end and that’s a good sign for both of them not just SILJ.
SILJ:GDX 195 min…
I have been comparing TSLA’s bottoming pattern just before it went on its massive run between ’19 and ’22 to EXK’s price action since the September low, and they are still very very similar in structure.
That being said, in the very very short run (like the next few trading days) it’s still possible for EXK to drop even further. If it breaks below $3.20, you can probably put a fork in the TSLA analogy though.
As I’ve pointed out repeatedly it is common for the action immediately following a Fed decision to reverse and go the other way. In other words it makes sense to be skeptical of today’s drop in the miners as well as today’s rise in the stock market and the dollar.
So far, the miners have essentially returned to the levels they were at as Powell spoke. It’s as if that silly news needed to be cleared from (dumb money) investor consideration.
SILJ 130 min…
Big volume on ZSL. I’m hoping I can add more HL and EXK at much lower prices.
I just hope DOC covered his shorts on stock market, there’s more pain to come for bears. What was he thinking?
Exactly 7 years ago (early Feb. 2016) he shorted the miners at the worst possible time as well. Go figure.
now that’s dickish calijoe
It’s an honest question. What’s wrong with you?
Stillwater is up slightly today while most others aren’t, maybe just maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel.✌
Starting to show signs that’s for sure. Still needs more volume going forward. I might be adding to that volume if magna pops big again. It’s really rocking again.
… I could be worng I could be rihgt…
+1 Dan. Johnny Rotten… classic.
I think the resource market after today will start to PEEL OUT and do a DONUT! LOL! I love the smell of rubber and sugar in the morning! DT🤣
A fact for the day to ponder: Silver up 4% premarket. Every miner with silver in their name is down in my account. Time to silver shop.
Added some Ridgeline Minerals for my silver buy as it doesn’t have silver in their name but in the ground.
Added a few F3 uranium. Keeping it in the refrigerator.
Almost Replay of Yesterday: Open Green, Take down to $6000 t0 $7300 during day. Turn Green right before Close and on last trade of day, paint red. -$400 yesterday and -$800 today. They are running out of creativity.
Jordan Roy-Byrne – “The Biggest Breakout in 50 Years”
January 27-28 Metals Investor Forum 2023 #MIF #VIDEO