Jordan Roy-Byrne – The Nuances Of Technical Analysis On Gold, Silver, and PM Mining Stocks
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to discuss his technical outlook on the gold, silver, and precious metals mining stocks, and reviews the rationale and challenges with some technical theses that we see regarding silver being in a bull flag or GDX being in an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Jordan breaks down some of the key technical nuances of using technical analysis in concert with intermarket analysis and fundamental macroeconomic trends, to determine both the bearish and bullish scenarios.
We wrap up with getting Jordan’s view of the gold versus S&P ratio chart on different timeframes, and that a breakout here would be the key determinant factor for a real bull market in gold, silver, and the precious metals mining stocks.
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I hate it when I hear things I believe.
Ha! Good one Lakedweller2.
Lately there have been a lot of infomercials on the boob tube, comparing the valuation and the loss of purchasing power in the US dollar in relation to physical gold since 1970. It always takes the hucksters for the public to see the light. Ex wouldn’t know about this because he doesn’t watch the “boob” tube, I can’t figure out why? DT 😍
Guilty as charged DT.
I’ve not had television service for over 20 years now, but I do have a big flatscreen TV that I will periodically watch films on, via blu ray or streaming services. There is not enough time in the day or in life to spend it sitting around watching television, commercials, sports, game shows, news, “reality shows”, etc…
When I’m not researching financial markets online (which is still a huge time investment in front of a glowing screen, but with a goal of growing capital, so it is participatory and has a payoff), then I’d rather be out in the real world living it up. Cheers!
Ditto on TV……… Waste of time……….. in all ass pects…
+1 OOTB
Bear flag in gold.
HZD, Silver beta down, looking quite bullish if it has a bit of a pull back.
HZD three year weekly…
Gold looks like it will get smashed again to drop it to at least tag its 50 DMA at $1854. who knows where silver will go in the next two weeks.
SLV:GLD weekly MACD has already rolled over and I expect more pain for silver investors in the next two weeks. I am expecting AG and EXK to get reamed (even more) in that time.
I keep flip flopping on the metals but as of right now, I am back in the camp that thinks silver will be dead money until after the summer. Very frustrating stuff, but the speed and magnitude of the 2020 rally strongly suggested that silver would need to correct/consolidate for years. Don’t get me wrong, it could rally back to tag its declining 100 WMA, but it will likely be rejected yet again until that MA gets much closer to the 200 WMA or crosses below it (which I project should happen around August).
I will hold through anything at this point, but I think silver needs more time. I sincerely hope I am wrong about this. You will know I am wrong when silver takes out the February 2 high. Until then, it’s all just noise and frankly medium term bearish.
Even under a bullish scenario, silver could be range bound until 2024.
I should have sold AG when it was making lower lows vs silver 2 months ago despite silver being up around 40-50%.
At this point, I am expecting AG’s and SIL’s September low to get broken. I have no timeframe on this happening but I think we will be seeing new multiyear lows before the end of the year.
This is not trending bull market action.
The 200 DMA for silver and silver miners is likely going to be a battle ground for at least 6 months.
Sil is setting up a H&S top (what’s new). It just needs to get to the neckline around $26-27 and bounce for a few days to form a right shoulder.
When we get our bounce in silver and gold, I expect there to be some hooting and hollering around here, but until silver gets above $24.75, there is nothing to do but watch it remained trapped until late 2023 or 2024.
I wish I listened to myself re: silver’s declining 100 WMA. Instead I smoked the hopium and it looks like we are stuck in the mud.
Down continues. Back lower in the range. Going to have to have a big day to break even this week. Looks pretty orchestrated.
I don’t think it’s orchestrated. The charts told us to expect this weakness. I have been harping about silver’s declining 100 WMA, which I thought would cap any advance (and it has). I don’t think silver will break out until that 100 WMA crosses below the 200 WMA. Unfortunately I let a certain someone convince me that silver would blow through the 100 WMA.
It is extremely rare for the 100 WMA to turn down sharply within a bull market and be quickly recovered. I would put it at .0000001%. Silver has shown its hand. It’s headed lower. I wouldn’t be surprised if we made a marginal new low in silver later this year. Heck, it could happen a lot quicker than that. I always underestimate how low silver will go.
That being said, I suppose silver can pop back up to test that declining 100 WMA at any time. I assume any test of that MA will be sold hard.
It’s quite possible that SIL:SLV will test its 2016 low before the end of the year. Talk about a depressing chart. So much wasted time and opportunity!
And I’m so tire of hearing we needed a sentiment reset or a “scary correction,” that is a load of BS. In strongly trending bulls (which we have not had in 12 years), corrections are mild even after enormous runs or bounce extremely quickly.
I have run out of fundamental and logical explanations for this one year down trend ending in being range bound for months. Nor do I have any logical reason for my stocks alternating days going up and down to balance near zero gain and loss while moving within a range no matter the Economic or political situation. Therefore I find intervention and orchestration as the most likely explanation. Charts reflect daily action and therefore can be influenced by uncontrolled variables outside the scope of free and regulated markets. Rigged is the term most often used by those more familiar with historical market behaviors and factors affecting their performance. Possibly just me but I no longer think so.
Green, one look at a 25 year monthly chart of XAU shows that your last paragraph holds no validity. Much bigger corrections were common throughout the last bull market even while the sector was on monthly buy signals which it currently is not.
My point was not made well. 1998-2007 HUI or XAU does not even remotely look similar to the price action since 2016-2023. that is undeniable. Sure there were large corrections, but they were instantly bought back up, creating numerous super bullish pennant consolidations. It was beautiful.
HUI was up 10x by 2007 and 15x by 2012.
In comparison, the HUI is only up about 2x in the 7 years since 2016. Not only that, but the chart itself is essentially trendless. All we have gotten is vertical ramps lasting 6-12 months and then grinding retracements for literally years, during which time almost all of the previous move is wiped away.
SIL hasn’t even made a higher high than the 2016 peak 7 years ago! And it would need to basically double from here just to retest it!
In any event, I think the miners will shine one day on a relative and absolute basis, but that day is a long, long ways off. I am hoping silver can pull off what wheat did from 2005 to 2008. but that’s all it is–hope. Even if I am right, we still have at least months of consolidative action. And that’s the bull scenario. If the stock market were to crash, there is no way the miners are spared.
The price of eggs has crushed the gold miners. Comparing eggs to silver miners is just depressing.
Can someone rationally explain to me why the Dow is crushing the miners since 2020? Highest inflation in 40 years, QE infinity etc.
In the last few days dow:gdx has bounced right back above support and is back above the 50 WMA. All we need is a new multiyear high to complete the trifecta.
The dow looks absolutely perfect. GDX not so much. I find it quite hilarious that folks here continue to pan the stock market when it is and has been destroying the miners.
Even the nasdaq is recovering vs GDX.
With miners you get all of the downside of stock market corrections and more and hardly any of the upside.
Even nasdaq:SIL looks good, with the 100 and 200 WMAs still rising and the 50 WMA still well above the 100WMA.
You literally cannot win. And silver miners on an inflation and risk adjusted basis may be the worst asset class of all time–I’m dead serious.
The rally in the PMs since the fall has been predicated on interest rates reaching a top around 5% and maybe yearend cuts. What happens if oil goes to $110 in H2 as forecast by GS (Curie), MS and Raymond James. There could be more hiking later thus year, dollar rallies, Miners get sold. Locking in nice profits here. Better risk reward in energy.
Throw a dart at something, anything, and it will outperform miners.
Many believe that “the rally in the PMs since the fall has been predicated on interest rates reaching a top around 5% and maybe yearend cuts” but they are mistaken. The past year has been a period of transition that most will get wrong since most don’t understand gold OR interest rates or even the dollar as it relates to gold.
I getchya, think you are spot on.
And those eggs are void of nutrition with a dyed yolk, engineered to have a standard shape and weight. People overeat but the body remains hungry.
At least when you buy a gold or silver coin, it’s the real deal.
IMPACT Silver Signs Binding Conditional Agreement to Purchase Plomosas Zinc-Lead-Silver Mine in Mexico
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/impact-silver-signs-binding-conditional-230000481.html
SLV has returned to its rising 20 week MA for the first time since October and right after its first bullish cross above the 50 week MA in 2.5 years. The current configuration of that cross and price is much better than the 2020 setup…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42730429455&a=1350366006
David Brady: Could We See a Precious Metal Buying Mania?
Palisades Gold Radio – Feb 8, 2023
“David discusses Fed Chair Powell’s recent statements, but argues that financial conditions have not tightened that much. Powell has said some real doozies recently, like the economy is strong, and the labor market is doing well. David says, “give me a break, the metrics around labor markets are startling wrong.” Bernanke has stated in the past, “When the data is bad, you have to lie” because it’s about maintaining confidence. The economy is not doing well, and neither is the labor market. The Fed statements are just justification for their policies.”
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Financial Conditions
2:28 – Labor Contradictions
6:44 – Hikes & Latent Damage
10:15 – Redefining the CPI
14:43 – DXY & Gold Outlook
18:48 – Final Fed Endgame
23:27 – Mine Nationalization
25:35 – The Metals Reversal?
32:50 – Leading Indications
35:14 – Fed Still Matters
38:50 – Dedollarization
42:44 – The Fed Trifecta
48:06 – Entitlements
53:23 – Wifey Wrap Up
> Talking Points From This Episode
– Fed policy is all about maintaining a narrative while manipulating statistics to support it.
– Outlook for the dollar and why he is so optimistic on precious metals.
– The move away from the dollar and why Fed policy still matters.
https://youtu.be/LOMDiKiHET8