Weekend Show – Recapping Strong US Data That’s Turned Markets Down, Be Ready For Choppy Markets Moving Forward
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show. The February turnaround for markets continued this week on the back of more positive economic data which has investors shifting rate hike expectations in the near term. We recap the many data points and key levels to watch for markets, currencies and metals.
Please keep in touch with Shad and I by emailing us your thoughts on markets and the companies we featured throughout the week. Out email addresses are Shad@kereport.com and Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Rick Bensignor, President of Bensignor Investment Strategies kicks off the show by sharing his outlook for markets, bonds, the US Dollar, gold and gold stocks. Rick called the turnaround in markets perfectly and now is looking for a choppier market moving forward with a bias to the downside.
- Segment 3 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of the Marc to Market website is up next with a recap of US economic data this month and the key central bank meetings to watch for in the coming weeks. We focus currency moves and how that correlates over to investor positioning.
- Segment 4 – Christopher Aaron, Founder of iGold Advisor wraps up the show with his technical analysis on gold. We revisit the Dow to gold ratio and relationship of the miners to the gold price.
Very bullish, so far: https://postimg.cc/QBPhJfZH.
Agnico oversold compared to gold. I think it could go down some but oversold doesn’t remain oversold forever…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=6&id=p25471370757&a=1357082139&r=1676740744595&cmd=print
I bought it at $45 yesterday with a limit order. It’s corrected over 20% now from the high. I think over next 18-24 months it hits $80 and long term looking for $140 to sell.
You have very optimistic target but more power to you!
Need to break this trend line, maybe 2023 will be the year for Agnico
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=6&id=p95052838120&a=1357103795&r=1676743711672&cmd=print
This is like ten year target btw, but see it as currently in a massive trading range of $20-$80 and once it breaks out will reach $140 – again multi-year time horizon though for that to happen.
Ryan, thanks for sharing your longer-term outlook on Agnico Eagle.
I believe we’ll see a lot of even the largest companies become 3 baggers or 4 baggers in the next few years, where the mid tiers and smaller producers could go up 5X to 10X. I don’t think most bulls are even as bullish as they should be in the context of how these things could get rerated. Most are still suffering from recency bias and extrapolating the recent past onto the future for perpetuity.
Gold and Silver are going to break out to new highs, and then more generalist investors will discover the sector, and more hot money speculators that have been off chasing other sectors over the last decade, will rediscover the resource stocks once again.
As mentioned in the interview with Christopher, if we just look at the valuations today in mining stocks (at relatively high historic prices in PMs and other base metals too) compared where they were trading at the 2011 high near similar price levels, or even the 2016 high (at lower price levels) then there is an insane amount of catching up to do for how development projects and producers resources and ounces in the ground should be valued… just at today’s prices.
Once gold blasts up through $2100 and heads to $2400 and then close to $3000 and Silver blasts up through $30 and eventually makes it up through the all time high of $50, people will be kicking themselves for not accumulating more aggressively during the last year.
Ex, there is an outside chance that yesterday was the turn. Numbers and patterns support this. A big data week is upcoming. Sunday/Monday will be interesting!
Thanks for the heads up BDC. Also, it is interesting what you noted above about the possible turn in Nat Gas. Boy that has been a wild and volatile market over the last 2 years. (They don’t call Nat Gas trading the “widow maker” for nothing…)
Since Larry mentioned it in 2021 I have concentrated on NatGas, learning much and with more to go. I am now 100% long via BOIL. Maybe not the smartest approach, but ETFs are not futures, where all could be lost. I now use stops only for an initial buy, at first using a 2% trailer, like an ante in poker. Other than that, it’s heat or heaven! BDC
NG1 may have bottomed somewhat deeper this morning.
If so, then a successful ‘weekend wash’ buy.
Nope…lol.
AEM was a fantastic buy yesterday.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75265885152&a=1357114317
For the record I think Ryan’s outlook is conservative. $80 will be exceeded well within 18 to 24 months. Of course I reserve the right to change my opinion and the near term action (days to a week or two) has the potential to cause me to do so.
I also agree with that post.
AEM $80 will be exceeded well within 18 to 24 months. Of course I also reserve the right to change my opinion and the near term action (days to a week or two) has the potential to cause me to do so.
Looking forward to the post here on which of the above forks was the correct option to have taken in the next couple of weeks.
A win/win prediction.
I think you’re suffering from cranial blood clots. 🙄🤪
Matthew – Do you own it?
Charles – I do not.
Got it. Thanks.
Very bullish: https://postimg.cc/K4n5VyPF.
Initial target 71.75 (ABCD 1:1.272).
I vote for Chris Aaron’s views as it is contrary to the single chart. AIs have the agendas of their handlers. AIs should only be allowed to stock canned soup at grocery syores.
Christopher is a sharp guy and savvy technician, and it is always nice to get his technical outlook.
Big bullish engulfing candle for SLV vs Yen…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3A%24XJY&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p23052445375&a=1345608331
At least SLV is trying to do the right thing.
I said last week that SOXX was a sell vs SLV and that a SOXX:SLV breakout wouldn’t stick. Yesterday’s action makes it a strong sell especially if it rises to fill yesterday’s gap.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOXX%3ASLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p45595052474&a=1350347609
Almost out of my Semi positions. I sold LSCC, AMD. I will wait for a setup to enter into a short trade.
Silver tested multiple supports and looks good. Notice the imminent 30 week MA cross above the 250 week EMA…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p42444151253&a=1345982699
HL’s action yesterday supports the possibility that we’ve seen the lows for the sector.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43355210717&a=1356419648
In addition: The Friday low ($4.93), came within a penny of the 50% retrace ($4.94) from 26Sep22 low to 26Jan23 high!
The rising 30 week MA (also at 4.94) was also tested. Stan Weinstein’s followers know that they should be long when price is above a rising 30 week MA.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86194998552&a=1324923309
I luv Christopher’s replay of 79-80 “last year gasp.”…….. FOMO moment of gold……………..It seems all we seem to talk about as we sit here as bass in the weeds…………..is when that next round of FOMO kicks in so we can all unload our paper !! Human nature being what is ………….not always about brotherly luv…………but it’s just OK , leaving some crowd in tears because they were just late to the party………..when the story just morphs and becomes to good to be true !
……………In any event………….what should the fair price of gold be at any given time, based on most of everything ever mined just lying around in dark vaults………………1600……………….1800……..2000……2500……….does anyone really think they know……..please let me know as I’m very curious…………….or maybe it’s just the game that the big fish pushing it around on margin at the comex think it should be that day, according to their computer ??? Or is it the wizards at the FED, speaking like gods, as they deem 5 % being some notional neutral rate that all indebted should pay ( this month anyway)…………with some warped notion of fairness…………….maybe it’s all true……………..if we just keep running in a circle faster and faster…………..we will eventually catch our tail………………..fun and games down the rabbit hole is what it really is !
LC: What is the fair value of the Dollar?
Exactly my point BDC !!!! The puppet masters really have us pretending on so many fronts……………….or maybe the emperor really does have an invisible suit after all !!!!!
Bottom line……………. it is all rigged………… been rigged since 1913……. PERIOD……
Yes Jerry, Time and again The Reserve Board has expressed fear of not having enough inflation. Now all of a sudden inflation is bringing on hard times, it is a much bigger problem than we thought. They only cry wolf when they want to bring about a drastic change in the economy, but we all know the wolf has been at the door for a long time and they ignored it until it was too late. Now they are touting high employment numbers, the genie of inflation has got everyone spooked because they finally took up the cause, but the rates must be lifted higher because the job market is so strong. WHAT A GAME!
Now the crazy investors are back buying Tesla and it has doubled in 6 weeks. Be a Bull on Tesla, it is the new General Motors. Wait till the elevator starts descending and Tesla hits $150, $100, $40, $20, $10, 67 cents, and then bankruptcy ensues. WHAT A GAME! DT
Yes indeed ,what a GAME……….
The dollar IS long term broken…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=M&yr=19&mn=11&dy=0&id=t2152278489c&a=578792218&r=1676759848012&cmd=print
The short term is worse than wobbly…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p95056911250&a=1328593224
There’s little reason for bullish bets on the intermediate term…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p90965500081&a=1294822234
The next year or two is going to rough…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=7&id=p93503234006&a=787551484
Countertrend moves or “relief rallies” tend to be exciting which means “convincing” to the average retail investor which is why so many currently doubt gold and believe that the stock market has bottomed (long term).
QQQ:SILJ
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p18974647761&a=1345035942
Right on Mathew !! But what do you expect from the pavlovian conditioning for the the past two decades, whenever there has been a hickup……..Bernanke and Yellen coming riding in to the rescue………….
THE crowd doesn’t yet believe that Powell has maybe dawned the Paul Volker sheepskin…….for the great reckoning………………..the next six months will be very interesting indeed………………….
Stagflation at best !!!
Anyone else notice the selloff in lithium names on Friday? Albemarle, LAC, PMET, LIT ETF, etc., all fell more than the broader markets. Was this somehow related to advance warning of Sigma/Tesla rumours or is the bubble beginning to burst?
Palladium is the only dog in the PM Pack.
Always interesting to read what Sir Plunger(!) has to say:
https://rambus1.com/2023/02/19/weekend-report-just-a-little-more-patience-were-almost-there-plunger/
CaliJoe, I didn’t note this as AEM above: https://postimg.cc/K4n5VyPF.
You’re lower gap is a breakout, and the higher one has just filled. BDC
Gaps don’t always get filled but often times they do. Not implying lower gap will get filled but if PM sector is dragged down with general equities, one never know…
If Agnico breaches $44.60 in near future then it opens up the possibility of closing the lower gap.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=10&id=p25584201188&a=1356718646&r=1676925582784&cmd=print
Yes, if that breaks then significantly lower.
If not, any test will be interesting.
Note those upside gaps.
Nice write up from Sprott on what they expect going forward in critical metals.
Another great week re interviews and comments
With my much more streamlined portfolio I must say for my holdings it was a yawnfest this past week. Slower volumes than even the usual summer doldrums. Hopefully things pick up as newsflow before PDAC starts. Appreciate the insights of the new guest Mr Middelkoop and look forward to future interviews with him.
Hope everyone enjoyed their long weekend. After the slow week for my holdings I’m itching for this week to begin. Cheers.
Thanks for those comments Wolfster, and yes hoping this week is a bit more interesting and lively than last week.
Last week was different in that several days I quit trying to trade and do other things. It made no difference, so this week I will be working on taxes and possibly weed killer on the yard. Need dog food and start throwing more things away. The false market has pretty well put itself into atrophy.
Hi Lakedweller2 – Yes, sometimes the best strategy is to let one’s portfolio have some time to breathe and let it do it’s thing as one has plenty of other things in life to work on besides just investing. Then one can come back to it and see where things are with a fresh set of eyes and outlook.
Bye the way, happy Presidents day!! Only, Joe Biden seems to have forgotten which country he is president OF
What’s in Ft Knox, seriously…
Happy President’s Day, and hope US investors enjoyed the long 3-day weekend.
It will be interesting to see where markets open up for Tuesday morning, and what we see play out on this shortened trading week.
Miner Merger Mondays Return Heading into Conference Season
David Erfle – The Junior Mining Junky – Friday February 17th, 2023
https://mailchi.mp/d3b3ac0b4a97/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1601669
Here’s another one. They’re snooping around Australia.
https://smallcaps.com.au/sibanye-stillwater-makes-off-market-takeover-bid-new-century-resources/
Thanks for the heads up on that takeover bid from Sibanye for New Century, to keep the trend of Mining Merger Mondays going….
That’s an interesting move for Sibanye, considering they are mostly PGMs and Gold focused, but they have expanded out into Lithium and Nickel processing a bit… and now this acquisition gives them more Copper, Silver, Zinc, Lead. They are really just becoming a polymetallic powerhouse of a Major. I guess they can all be lumped into Energy Metals for the future.
Hecla buys ATAC
Nice move, after they took Alexco last year
Interesting M&A action still brewing in the Yukon.
I knew Victoria Gold had made a failed attempt at ATAC last week, but it looks like Hecla swooped in to make them a better offer. I guess that means that temporarily Dolly Varden is free to keep growing, as Hecla is going to have their hands full with both restarting the mining operations they picked up from Alexco and now the exploration/development upside from ATAC Resources projects.
It’s nice to see more merger and acquisition transactions in the sector once again.
Hecla has moved into the Yukon
Big time. First Alexco and now ATAC. Hecla is a substantial North American producer that has been around over 125 years, so they are investing in their future, and part of that is definitely in the Yukon.
I’m actually a little surprised that Hecla didn’t make a move on Metallic Minerals before ATAC, since their land is adjacent to their operations at Keno Hill, and compliments it better. However, maybe since Victoria Gold was trying to move on ATAC last week in a failed takeover, they felt they had to pull the trigger now on it.
If/When they make a move on Dolly Varden, then they’ll also have an even nicer footprint than they already do in the Golden Triangle as well.
Not much of anything happening.
The hopium crowd has all but disappear. They’ll all be back once again with any pop up with gold.
Got out and happy now to watch paint dry.
Gas goin to be free soon judging by BOIL, UNG. Makes crypto look good. Now that would have made a decent pair trade.
Snowline down 50% from Aug highs, next target before July – $1.20 US
ELORO, WE WILL SEE $1.50 before we see $4, US
Yes, but Snowline was way out over their skis with that valuation they were carrying last summer, and they had a higher market cap than many of the companies with millions of ounces already defined in resource estimates that had promising economic studies. Heck, for that matter Snowline had a higher valuation last year than many of the gold and silver producers actually pulling the metal out of the ground and generating revenues with large resources in place and all the sunk costs and permits in place.
Don’t get me wrong…. That is not to detract from the series of fantastic drill hits that SGD was putting out over the last year, but more a statement of the irrational exuberance that we often see from retail lemmings piling into the latest hot story, without giving much thought to where the pre-resource market cap had already swelled to on relatively earlier stage drilling.
We’ve seen this movie before…. There have been dozens of hot trending cult stocks that have ratcheted up to ridiculous valuations over the years as more and more of the retail mobs piled on with bluesky to infinity and beyond. For goodness sakes, look at New Found Gold’s valuation last year that was up at $1.5 Billion dollars for a pre-resource stage company, with no economics and no plan to be in production for years. It has since been chopped in half, as the air came out of the balloon and gravity set in, but it is still sporting a CAD $820 Million market cap, which is larger than most of the other developers with 2, 3, 4, 8, million ounces in the ground, or again, actual gold producers with larger defined resources and a legitimate business.
It’s hard to know how high a mania will take a stock, once it becomes divorced from any realistic underpinning of value and is surging to higher levels on strictly speculative imagination, but we do know that what goes up one side of the parabola, also comes down the other side of the parabola in a similar manner until it finds a more fair valuation for what is actually known.
I picked up more HL at 5.035 and 5.045. The HUI is about to finish lower for the 9th straight day (12 of the last 13 days down).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p70039984338&a=1206811097
IMPACT Silver Plomosa Zinc-Lead-Silver Acquisition Webinar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-PE14QALvc&ab_channel=IMPACTSilverCorp%28IPT%3ATSX-V%29
Definitely a podcast worth its weight in Zn-Ag. Thanks Matthew. Maybe time to get back into ISVLF, THATS GOOD NEWS!
IMPACT SILVER – ( ISVLF) new position today – 6K @ $.2118
TURNS: https://tinyurl.com/52euebw7
NatGas/PM swings complete,
or more next week?