Weekend Show – Metals And Energy Focus With A Dive Into The Stocks
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show. We are in a slow time for major economic data and central bank meetings so we take a more focused approach this weekend towards investment strategies in metals and energy stocks.
Please keep in touch with Shad and I through to share your thoughts on the markets, our guests and the companies we featured throughout the week. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital joins us to share his outlook on the junior metals stocks, the investment angle for CRD assets in Nevada and what has peaked his interest in the vanadium sector.
- Segment 3 and 4 – We switch our focus to investing in energy stocks with Dan Steffens, President of the Energy Prospectus Group. We start with comments on the crash in natural gas price along with his investing strategy for the stocks. We then move to the oil sector. Dan shares a lot of stocks that he likes for a variety of investors.
BDC..I sold boil when/NG hit 3.0 round number plus it hit a .382 rally from the smaller swing …plus OBV on all intraday overbought…plus RSI diverging on low ertime frames…the only problem and it IS big…the bar was extremely bullish on large relative volume…so, it is a wait and see…glta
BOIL has huge potential here.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOIL&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p84110185618&a=1366543376
I wouldn’t be surprised if NG quickly tops $4 before stalling.
Good comments on Nat Gas guys. I agree with Dan Steffens point that it will probably be up in the high $3’s to $5 range by the 2nd half the year and longer term once those new LNG ports are built, it would not surprise me to see natural gas in the $5-$6 range again as a more stable pricing level for the longer-term floor.
It is likely that investors looking back at the low $2’s we saw last month are going to regret not getting positioned in UNG or BOIL. My strategy is going to be adding in a few of the nat gas company stocks in the near future, or at least the hybrid ones with good nat gas credits and exposure in their production mix. Dan mentioned a few worth consideration, and there are a few more Josef had mentioned in his recent segment.
I had a look at BOIL and UNG they trade on an electronic exchange in the US, they both look compelling, but I need to find something suitable on a Canadian exchange. Joseph Schacter’s picks were on an Australian and US exchange. DT
Ex, NatGassers may well retrace next week. Market makers must have some decks to clear. Note that this index has done a 1:1 ABCD, with a top testing 27.2% extension possible: FCG: https://postimg.cc/qNtjVs28.
DT, Betapro have leveraged nat gas ETFs traded on TSE(HNU, HND)
Hi Terry, thanks for the heads up, I want to get into the energy market, I will check them out! Decades ago, I spent time living and working in Australia, great place, I really enjoyed myself maybe too much. My daughter lived there as well, and she wants to go back. DT
Interesting Nat Gas thread going here everyone. Nice!
Thanks for the heads up on the possible retracement in the gassers BDC. That may be a good spot to start nibbling on some of them.
NG stalled today.
Great trade, Larry. Look to possibly play KOLD this week.
I will keep folks posted with the latest diggings.
Monday/Tuesday – and Sunday night.
If the sharp drop over the last month really warranted the emotions of this site’s contrary indicators it is unlikely that SILJ:GDX would have made higher lows since February 1st.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=18&id=p04616421570&a=1099402535
The week ended with clear buy signals for the sector including the silver juniors vs the gold seniors (“risk-on” is a buy)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76415233914&a=1366196883
SIL:GDX turned clearly bullish days before the sector lows of Friday 2/24…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL%3AGDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p33360961631&a=1366522121
I nibbled on AGQ Friday close. At very minimum, I’m hoping it will close that gap
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p29931495520&a=1366528232&r=1677948762712&cmd=print
Your timing is probably perfect…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p78732913105&a=1366541937
Along the lines of “other metals”, I picked up a few shares of First Tellurium yesterday. They presented at MIF yesterday and I believe they were sponsored by Brien Lundin (sp?) and there was also some support from Chen Lin at the Jan MIF. I know … everyone has some Tellurium dollars stored right next to their Lady Liberty Silver Dollars under their mattress, but I got some shares anyway.
HL is already 14% off its low and looks great. It’s an easy “buy” especially on decent down days.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p84767660440&a=1206811097
Matthew – Thanks for sharing that Hecla chart, and agreed that it’s made a nice move higher over the the last 4-5 months, and future pullbacks to support (like what we’ve seen recently) should be accumulated for those still scaling into positions during sector weakness.
Personally I’m fully allocated to the positions I want in the big boy Silver producers like Hecla, Coeur, Silvercorp, and Gatos – having added a lot last summer and fall on that sector weakness at lower levels.
However, I would be curious to get your thoughts on (AG) First Majestic and how it is set up currently. I’ve not had a position in that stock since the 2016 run, because it got to a point where it had a pretty heavy premium compared to most of it’s silver-producing peers after that; climaxing in the huge surge in 2021 during that brief #SilverSqueeze mania to Feb 1st 2021. Now, AG finally looks like it’s more beaten down than most of the other prominent silver producer leadership, and compared to SILJ, like we discussed a few days ago. Any support levels you’d be watching for in AG?
I’m satisfied with the exposure I get from SILJ but I do consider it a buy here. Buy and hold types might wait for a little more strength to get comfortable but I’d welcome a retest of its low next week as long as the rest of the sector doesn’t do something to change my outlook.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01332614634&a=1366600545
The following chart is a bit noisy but the main tool in play is the Schiff fork (green) which marked the low a week ago.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p08966714114&a=1366596451
The parabolic SAR is now long and there’s an important pivot point at 6.80 that needs to be overcome.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p79885485137
The equivalent Demark pivot is much closer at 6.57:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p01276168174
Matthew – Thanks and good thoughts on AG, and yeah, a nice pullback to retest those lows would actually be perfect, and I’m looking to get in for a more of a position trade a few months to a year as First Majestic rerates back up higher again, more in alignment with where it has traded in prior periods compared to peers, SILJ, and Silver, and then I’d fade back out of it again in lieu of other good risk/reward scenarios.
AG hasn’t been so oversold vs silver since the covid crash…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15912476240&a=1366612730
Yeah, that is another factor that really got my attention lately with First Majestic… how oversold versus silver, SILJ, other silver and gold producers gold, it has been. First Majestic has introduced a lot of gold with the acquisition of Jerrit Canyon in Nevada last year, but they have had challenges there where it didn’t quite go as projected thus far. This paired with a few hurtles at the Mexican mines, and higher costs with inflation pressures, have really caused many to jump ship… but those problems will get worked through, and they should be able to climb their way back out of the penalty box if they can put together a few better quarterly operations reports.
I likely won’t hold AG for a really long time, but maybe something like getting positioned on the next pullback for the balance of this year or early next year where it has an outsized move to play catchup a bit to the rest of the sector. Just mulling that over, and the charts are much appreciated.
Silvergate, a federally insured bank with ties to crypto just blew up, the whole crypto market is a fraud, but still the deniers are out there. When they go to retrieve their money they will here this, “We are sound but need a bit of time to work on some technicals”, then dead silence and dial tone. DT
Gold Holds Key $1800 Support as Recession Fears Mount
David Erfle – The Junior Mining Junky – Friday March 3rd, 2023
“Gold Futures opened 2023 at $1825, then reached a year-to-date high of $1975 on February 2 after the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year. But continued signs of inflation, a strong U.S. dollar, and rising bond yields on the back of a surprising release of a very strong U.S. jobs report for January all helped to push the gold price towards key support at $1800 by the end of the following month.”
“After a two-month roller-coaster ride beginning to the new year, the volatility in the gold market is far from over as geopolitical tensions are not letting up, which is working in gold’s favor in terms of finding a bottom in this downtrend…”
https://mailchi.mp/79caa3fee5e1/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1601689
The BRICS are meeting in August to form a new currency as an alternative to the US dollar, to give their currency legitimacy it must be backed by gold. At this time Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa comprising almost 3 billion inhabitants will have to reveal how much gold they have in reserve. They have been buying gold and storing it for a couple of decades for this moment when they will rock the financial foundation backed by The US Dollar. Canada, and Britain, do not have any gold reserves so they will be forced to buy in the open market and Europe and the US will be under pressure to reveal their gold holdings, and buy if necessary. This will give gold a huge boost. DT
Something bad may happen before that meeting and currency alternatuve gets off the ground and it will all be forgotten.
DT – The BRICS nations are definitely working on a new trade network, on finding ways to bypass the PetroDollar stranglehold, and on coming up with some new unit of exchange between nations disenfranchised with the US wielding it’s reserve currency status upon the globe in the way it has over the last few decades.
Sure, it is possible gold may play a part in that tansition, in either a major capacity or a minor contributing capacity. It will be interesting to see a reveal of just how much gold those nations have really mopped up over the last few decades, because it is likely going to be a larger amount than many economists or politicians have currently anticipated.
If other nations slow on the uptake get the memo that the ole pet rock is actually still highly sought after by leading emerging nations and a number of central banks as a diversifier of capital holdings and as money itself, then it could spike more interest in the yellow metal once again as other global players scramble to shore up their own reserves.
That scenario has been imagined and romanticized about for some time now, but we may finally be nearing that “tipping point” type of moment where the momentum shifts from disinterest to keen interest. If that plays out over the next few years, then goldbugs will go from the laughable lunes to prudent prescient players, and my guess is that the masses will soon awaken to the reality that they don’t have any exposure to this PM sector at their own detriment.
Here is the US Debt Clock. Something we used to post regularly here on the KER blogs.
If you were other countries looking at the solvency of the US Economy, how does this look?
Larry, you timed it to perfection: https://postimg.cc/zb18cyyY
Updated Saturation: https://tinyurl.com/52euebw7
The NatGas decline is now (Sunday night) continuing: escalator up, elevator down. Comstock hit qualified saturation on February 16th, but failed to do so Friday: https://postimg.cc/FYfH7f80.
It appears that recent lows may be tested, or that market makers, hedge funds, etc. are simply clearing the decks in preparation for the secular bull now brewing.
Comstock down early. Target 12.30-12.50 or 11.45-11.65 if deep.
Though this could revert back to ‘Likely’,
the turn is now ‘Confirmed’ (04:30).
Bought BOIL for the bounce, close stop.
Stopped out.
New NatGas rule: Analyze Until Seven – Off Until Eight.
BDC…ok so you gave some back…no big thing…you will make it back…you learned that you want all 7 time frames agreeing to trade the /NG beast?…is that what you analyzed?…any answer appreciated….I think I kind of do manually what your system provides…not totally sure…..I could see a 50% or .618 retrace of this initial single leg A up in /NG…glta
Thanks Larry!
The Seven and Eight above refer to 07:00 and 08:00 NY time. PMs can be traded that early but, for me from now on, never NatGas. I will log out and probably have breakfast then. Too many good looking losing patterns.
Saturation is a Quality measure, not Quantity. Any level greater than 1 is enough for a turn; however, a triple {7} means Quantity of Quality and should be respected as such.
BDC
NG is obviously thoroughly broken but what’s not obvious to most is that it hasn’t been so wildly oversold from a momentum perspective in at least 30 years (stockcharts only provides 30 years of data). Momentum is more important than price when it come to investing rather than actively trading the short term. NG is most likely at a major low here but it could be a long time before it turns into a bull market. The gold space is not at all in the same boat and the bull market launch that I see coming soon has not been negated. What we need now is for silver to confirm gold and I bet it will do so soon, possibly this week.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NATGAS&p=W&yr=9&mn=3&dy=0&id=p47839762622&a=1367635057
KOLD: https://postimg.cc/ZCYhpbFq.
All The Hallmarks Of An Echo Bubble
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (03/04/2023)
Hi Ex, HELLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO is anyone out there! DT 😉
Hi DT. Apparently there are still a few of us resource investors out there… ha!
5 figure loss on Monday morning already. Month 14.
drip drip in the wrong direction with the underperforming metals. Gold however holding water as usual.
Best to sit and watch with cash.
(TSX: ORE) (OTCQX: ORZCF) Orezone Intersects 1.72 g/t Gold Over 40.40m at P8P9 & 5.59 g/t Gold Over 15.00m at Maga
March 6, 2023
https://ceo.ca/@globenewswire/orezone-intersects-172-gt-gold-over-4040m-at-p8p9
I took another look at the “bail-in” provisions for tge banks and it appears that deposits that are unsecured would be vulnerable to bail-in. They consider the FDIC insurance amount of $250,000 secured deposits.
Are they still secured if Congress fails to pass the debt extension and FDIC can’t get emergency funding to cover deposits if the US Defaults.
My guess is all deposits in the Banks would then be subject to theft (bail-in). Real people lose their emergency cash (for the few that have savings). Then lose their cars and homes… then are subject to the whims of the Fascist autocratic state that has transferred ownership if most all property.
(Food for thought when witnessing “who” opposes extending debt and “who” looks toward restructuring options.) Welcome to Monday.
/NG…not trying to belabor….but on weekly bottoms that matter…it takes the market a few weeks to accumulate before the thing launches…weekly
There is a possible Gartley ‘Zigzag C’ forming.
It may culminate at the 61.8% level.
https://postimg.cc/nCXjXwBC
I posted this chart on Saturday (above on this thread) and it’s behaving well today. It gapped up big but now that gap has already been dealt with.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=18&id=p04616421570&a=1099402535
Gold may be heading south.
November test possible.
Possible yes but luckily highly unlikely.
AG is significantly outperforming HL and SILJ today and I’m not surprised.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p54970804907&a=1366596451
hope springs eternal. but not a strategy.
Having cash is
We await ‘Joe the Tell’.
It looks like hope because you don’t understand. You and Doc always feel most confident that lower lows are coming when the sector is at a low because you don’t understand. Millions fell for the Fauci and friends fraud because they didn’t understand.
“If you want to be loathsome to God, just run with the herd.”
—Soren Kierkegaard
That’s complete BS, as far as me.
Doc can speak for himself.
I follow the Data.
You dream.
Yet to be discounted, from 2021:
https://postimg.cc/f3Ynn429.
That was for jon syl which is why it’s not indented under your name.
Nevertheless, playing the big swings without reporting my every move often does look like dreaming to those who don’t understand!
My mistake. In any case, for the record, this is my other target bogey (broken) from back then: https://postimg.cc/4nyJMzFG (1711.61).
Using the same method and Gold’s most recent high and previous low, the current number is about 1570, which is unlikely but not impossible.
1570 gold would be very bad news in my opinion but I also would not say it’s impossible.
Fauci God or nothing else help with your goofy arguments or calls.
I agree so it’s a good thing they don’t need any help.
AGQ managed a new MACD (12,26,9) buy signal today despite its 2% drop…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p78732913105&a=1366541937
It’s good to know that anything is possible, even 1570 gold.
Well if you’re not a bag holder and holding cash that is bullish.
Except it ain’t going to happen.
Saturation: https://tinyurl.com/52euebw7
Possible NatGas swing next week.
STEO report due Tuesday.
PMs approach top.