Weekend Show – Banking Sector Issues Push Money Into Safe Assets, A Major Drop In Energy
What a wild week! More banking issues in the US and Europe drove safe assets much higher to end the week. Investors are worried this is the start of larger issues for banks. We focus this Weekend’s Show on the banking system in the US and fall in energy prices.
Please keep in touch with us through email. We love hearing your thoughts on the show, our guests and the companies we feature throughout the week. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 – Mike Larson, Editor-in-Chief at the MoneyShow kicks off the show by sharing his thoughts on the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Collapse, the inflation data (PPI) this week and related pop in gold.
- Segment 2 and 3 – Rick Bensignor, President of Bensignor Investment Strategies joins us for an extended interview covering everything from the banking issues in the US, key levels to watch on the downside for the SP&, gold’s breakout and potential to hold all time highs, the major drop in yields and the energy sector. Rick has been extremely actuate calling these markets.
- Segment 4 – Josef Schachter, Founder of The Schachter Energy Report wraps up the show with a focus in the drop in oil and natural gas. Josef has been waiting for a pullback below $70 and for the stocks to enter some of his buying ranges.
This is very interesting, what is SOFR? The new U.S. Libor alternative. SOFR is based on transactions in the Treasury repurchase market, where banks and investors borrow or loan Treasuries overnight. SOFR has been in use for almost 5 years, since April 2018. Jay Taylor recently interviewed Tom Luongo about this new accounting system being employed by The Federal Reserve. Although Libor is still dominant in the setting of the overnight lending rate, SOFR seems to be a more advanced system that is being adapted by The Fed.
This U.S, Central Banks are worried about The London based banking system which employs libor because with central bank digital currencies the American central banks and The Fed can by bypassed and made redundant by London Financial Markets. London is still The World’s financial center. The U.S. banks know their days are numbered if Central Bank Digital Currencies are adapted, and they don’t have their own system in place. This is part of the one world system of governance. DT
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-sofr-explainer-idUSKCN1HA0H1
Rick thanks! I think this is the site you were talking about:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
those are good recommendations by Joseph.
does anyone have any oil technical on this short term deflationary collapse?
Does anybody here know that the Dolly Varden Mine was managed by Herbert Hoover in the 1920’s, not much going on here! The ides of March are upon us! Beware! LOL! DT
+1920. Yes, both CEOs of Dolly Varden (Gary Cope in the past, and then the new management team under Shaun Khunkhun over the last 3 years) have brought up the illustrious past of the DV Mine and how Herbert Hoover had been the boss for a stint in the past.
I’m far more excited about the overall land package is pulling together in the present, now with all the Homestake Ridge assets in concert with the Dolly Varden Mine, Torbrit Mine, and new and expanding Wolf Zone on the older land claims. Their new geological interpretation and drilling the last 2 years has broken the code on this overall project and I’d be shocked if they are taken out in the next 18 months by Hecla or maybe a surprise bid from one of the other big boy producers.
I would have thought that after the kind of day the gold and silver market had on Friday that posters would be chatting like magpies, about their investments.
I guess people are terrified because they don’t know precisely what is going to happen in the next moment. It is the unknown which causes panic, even this upshot in the gold market means that there will be a sudden decline somewhere by something that will bring the system down. You should be prepared by now. DT😏
The cell phones will be busy next week placing orders and brokerage calls to find out what their advisors think. It is small comfort to know what precious metals are doing if you are involved in other stocks. When you are completely in the dark your imagination has free reign to play. You might put in an order to buy or sell but it is impossible to predict where it went if the market turns violently in one direction. I hope that the sequel from Friday isn’t an epidemic of fright. DT
DT – The Gold chart above spurred little, if any, commentary. People must be waiting for more details, maybe starting tonight (Sunday).
Hi BDC: There was a cross in Santacruz Silver Friday after hours for over 6 million shares at 57 cents. Not too often something like that happens. DT
DT
There was a crossover trade of Snowline for 3 million shares the day before the B2 Gold 5% ownership News Release. Conjecture on CEO.ca: It was B2 Gold buying a block of shares? Dots now being connected?
BrianE
Agreed DT. I’m actually a bit surprised at how quiet the KER Forum has been on this weekend show, all things considered, and with Gold futures ending after-hours trading on Friday up at $1993 (pretty close to that key psychological $2,000 level once again).
>> At Friday’s normal market close:
– GDX was up 4.87%
– GDXJ was up 5.52%
– SIL was up 4.45%
– SILJ was up 6.09%
My trading account was up roughly 6.5%.
Many individual PM stocks were up high single-digits or double-digits.
One would think investors in this sector would have been a bit more constructive on how the week closed, but alas…. sentiment is still pretty reserved and people have become doubtful and jaded because other prior rallies the last few years have been sold off hard.
That’s actually a pretty good sign that there isn’t much celebrating, as the Bull Market likes to shake most riders off his back, while climbing the Wall Of Worry…
Ever Upward!
I was up for the week but nothing significant. A regular Monday will wipe it out.
This whole green agenda is so far out of whack, yet people bought into the narrative and invested accordingly. You can flip a dime and get it to turn over, but you can’t take an information economy with an overproduction of capital, not nearly enough commodities, and very little industrial production of consumer goods and expect a quick reversal. These timelines take decades not years. DT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdGbhfGygNw
“When all the banks close….” – Bob Moriarty
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm-_GelhdR0
Tom Luongo. Start at about an hour.
I think other than a minor correction upcoming the bottom is in in Gold. Being more interested in the stocks which are undervalued I am still concerned that the liquidity crisis has not peaked. I am a little gun shy……..
We’ve been pretty consistent on here that the lows we saw in Silver at $17.40 early last September, then the lows in GDX and GDXJ in late September, and the triple bottom lows in Gold around $1620 (with the $1618 low on Nov 4th being the final test of that support level) was going to be the low.
So many technicians and market pundits had postulated that once that key $1673-$1680 level broke in Gold, that it was a clear path to a further pullback down into the $1500’s, or retesting the $1450 pandemic crash low from March 2020, or even calls that the $1375 level may have to get retested. Those were very extreme downside calls just last year, and many expecting gloom and doom in the PM sector for years that clearly has not played out.
It was clearly a bear-trap when it happened, and we said so in real time, and the savvy investors were accumulating that weakness in Sept/Oct/Nov las year. Once again, many investors failed to buy when things were “low” opting to freak out at the wrong time, to flee stocks to raise cash at the wrong time, and then to watch the whole sector plow higher double digits for 4 months straight from the safety of the sidelines. That was a costly stance and missed opportunity for many.
Then there were all those that suggested the charts were a mirror image of the 2011-2012 timeframe and calling for another 2013-style waterfall decline…. but again, what happened in Q4 2022 and heading into January of 2023 negated all of that. As Christopher Aaron mentioned on here, Gold did something very different than the pattern that played out in 2013 from that similar chart setup before than…. basically the opposite. It took the stairs down and then the elevator up (blasting up over $350 in just a few months).
Then we had a string of people touting how important January would be for setting the tone in the general markets and PMs with the January Effect. Well if people actually believed that and “ate their own cooking” then they’d have taken the pullback from Feb-early March as another opportunity to load up when things were discounted in valuations. It felt bad buying into that correction personally, but that is how it always feels right before a turn. Again, most were not scaling into weakness, but rather preparing for everything to get smashed much further.
Even just 2 weeks ago we had a few different calls from technicians on the show and on other platforms warning we were likely going back to retest the lows from last year, only for Gold and Silver and the mining stocks to blast even higher for the last 2 weeks.
While anything is possible in these wild markets, what is most probable is that the lows of last year in late Q3 for Silver and GDX/GDXJ, and in Q4 for Gold were THE lows, ending the 2 1/2 year bear markets, and starting the next leg of the bull market.
Commodities are down hard vs silver since I first posted this chart last summer to show the big top as it formed… and it’s just the beginning:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p21350702839&a=1077794175
The CRB peaked vs the miners last August with a monthly overbought RSI reading and is now on obvious sell signals. Priced in dollars AND commodities the miners put in major lows last summer-fall while everyone thought they’d go much lower.
CRB:XAU monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24XAU&p=M&yr=12&mn=11&dy=0&id=p63285847928&a=1121398236&r=1679258190840&cmd=print
The Most Reckless Monetary Experiment In History
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (03/18/2023)
I am totally confused…………..can someone explain to me what is the difference between QE 1-4 where the Fed was buying ABS and long term securities……making bankers whole and buying just longer term debt to make bankers whole and calling it Abpbfdkhmz…………..
Smells like the same stinking terd that happened in 2008 in the face of rising interest rates except now the system has 30 % more debt………someone please correct me if I’m wrong !!
EX……………….you know that gold has now cried wolf 3 times at close to 2000………….once it pants a flag at 2100 and doesn’t look back……………..the lost sheep may just come back to the flock!
Like in any market it’s all about confidence !!!
Nouriel Roubini has just stated that we are just in the first inning of this reckonning……..
Agreed LarryC. Once Gold breaks out to a new high at $2100+, then many will flock back into the PM sector once again, on the basis of the momentum trade.
However; capitalizing on the deep pullbacks over the last 8-9 months was the time to be deploying cash into the oversold low valuations across the sector.
At this point PM investors should have already accumulated a portfolio of positions at a good low cost basis to keep riding higher medium to longer-term. Any further weakness should be used for accumulation as the bull continues to unfold.
One possibility is that a standard price for Gold is agreed upon by all significant parties, once the dust settles. Taking current conditions into account, that figure might be equivalent to $3000.
Gold has broken out of its 2.5 year channel based on weekly closes:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p25365893709&a=1376624900
Gold has closed 25 of the last 34 months above its previous record high monthly and quarterly close of 2012.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91805491679&a=712970417&r=1679264045817&cmd=print
UBS to buy Credit Suisse, I guess the Swiss authorities have decided that anything is better than a panic. The European Central Bank will back Europe’s banks by printing more money if needed. Europe is so far down the rabbit hole of debt, this is NUTS! Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. Lesson not learned! DT
Remember that these banks are broke either on bad investments or derivative off balance sheet fraud. The only place money to keep them afloat is coming from is the printing press and the bad debts are going on Central Banks balance sheets. This is check kiting in its finest and the serfs are getting loaded up with debt. And yet the Victims love being scammed…let’s ban immigrants and life will return to normal. (Just an example of diversion)
Gold 8pm (NYT): https://postimg.cc/LYkYb4vc
Breaking north!
This is staggering:
Four U.S. mega banks hold 88.6% of $195 trillion of derivatives in the banking system.
J.P. Morgan $54.3 trillion
Goldman Sacks $50.97 trillion
Citigroup $46 Trillion
Bank of America $21.6 trillion
Too Big Too Bail-DT
UBS To Buy Credit Suisse For $3 Billion As AT1 Bonds Get Wiped Out In Record Bail-In; Swiss Govt Grants CHF9BN Guarantee; SNB Offers $100 Billion Liquidity Backstop
March 20, 2023
“We finally have a deal, and what was at first a CHF1 BN acquisition priceof Credit Suisse by UBS, which then rose to CHF 2 BN, has now cranked up one final time to CHF 3BN (US$3.25 billion), or 0.76 per share, specifically shareholders of Credit Suisse will receive 1 share in UBS for 22.48 shares in Credit Suisse. As part of the deal, the Swiss National Bank is offering a 100 billion-franc liquidity assistance to UBS while the government is granting a 9 billion-franc guarantee for potential losses from assets UBS is taking over, i.e., this is a taxpayer-backed bailout.”
“More importantly, however, the bank’s entire AT1 tranche – some CHF16BN of Additioanal Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, a $275BN market – will be bailed in and written down to zero, to wit: “FINMA has determined that Credit Suisse’s Additional Tier 1 Capital (deriving from the issuance of Tier 1 Capital Notes) in the aggregate nominal amount of approximately CHF 16 billion will be written off to zero.”
“FINMA has determined that Credit Suisse’s Additional Tier 1 Capital (deriving from the issuance of Tier 1 Capital Notes) in the aggregate nominal amount of approximately CHF 16 billion will be written off to zero.”
That which is created by the pen can be destroyed by the pen.
Hardly any miners reporting but took 5 mins to take my account negative.(Seems they would be taking any loose change they have and be buying Credit Suisse with The Fed)
OTC and Schwab slow in reporting…things that make you go Hmmm ….(Grant Williams)
Here’s a new one: About 80% of my stocks have a “footnote 7”, which means current value may not reflect “actual” value of stocks. Those stocks have not even shown an open.
Might only be me but ceo.ca won’t open ….
Looks like it is open …..
John Rubino thinks there could be trouble at Schwab. DT
SGN, Scorpio, breaking out big time…
Wow. Thanks Dan for the heads up on SGN. Up 62.5% on huge volume on no news…. (or at least no news that is publicly available yet).
It is crazy that Gold futures shot up to $2014.90 in overseas trading, but then now have pulled back down to $1974 in early trading on Monday. A pullback of some of Friday’s afterhours run and the overseas run this morning was expected, but still there is little fanfare anywhere about gold spiking up over $2000 again briefly. Yes, it didn’t hold onto those gains, but still it’s up knocking on heaven’s door.
That’s a good thing that most investors and the financial media overall are apathetic about the yellow metal bouncing around up near all time highs once again. Man… if other sectors were up near all time highs that’s all we’d hear about, but nobody really notices or cares about the big move gold has had over the last 5 months. I’m not even sure anymore how many will even notice if $2100 is eclipsed for a new all-time high. Back in 2000-2001 Gold and the PMs started a new bull market cycle, and it took generalist investors 2 years until about 2003 to finally get the memo that gold had been trekking higher. Maybe it will take until late 2024 or early 2025 for generalists to really wake up to the larger bull market move?
I guess there are likely a great number of investors that got wrong-footed last year when Gold did break below the key support of $1973-$1975, and had proclaimed that gold was headed down into the $1500s, $1400s, and $1300s…. (nope).
When gold instead rocketed off $1618 on Nov 4th and has now tacked on over $350+ they are likely thinking… “Well, I missed that move and don’t want to chase it here…” (never mind that they called for the exact opposite of what actually played out and caused anyone listening to them to also miss the recent rip higher).
I wonder what they may say when Gold eventually does clear $2100 and goes to $2200 or $2300 or $2400? Will they keep saying they don’t want to chase it any higher? 😉
Should be interesting. going forword,…. glad it popped up…. on bad news… at least it is showing some signs
Considering 268 million people got the jab…. might be slowness in their awareness.. 🙂
Agreed OOTB. At least these concerns about the health of the banks shows that in a real pinch and with real uncertainty, that Gold did pick up a safe haven bid once again. The pet rock lives on…
Credit Suisse down about 54% today…. but who’s worried…right?
LOL……. only a bank that is 168 years old or younger…. 🙂
The dollar will soon be in the 90s.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p93418243637&a=470842113
Yep, would love to see 2 more days with the Slo STO down to catapult into the 90s
The yen is about to get its first monthly MACD buy signal in 7.5 years.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=M&st=1990-04-09&id=t7324167714c&a=453668152&r=1679324184036&cmd=print
Meanwhile, the dollar is working on its first monthly MACD sell signal in 3.5 years.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=M&yr=16&mn=0&dy=0&id=t3912726660c&a=578792218&r=1679324503510&cmd=print
My account has been locked-up for 6 days while I try to get a new brokerage firm. It is very possible I won’t be able to move all or part of my account due to them being mostly OTC microcaps, despite being traded in the open market. We will see. It has been an OK time to attempt this change as my account is still range bound in the lower part of its range. But, it is no fun being defenseless.
ditto on defenseless………..
Success… sort of. Interactive Brokers accepted some of my stocks for transfer. The comparative logic is not readily apparent, but that is ok. It is a start.
Glad to hear that….. hope it works out…
OOTB
Thanks. I think it is good to spread things out just in case something actually goes up.
I’ve had an IB account since 2007 and in early 2011 I decided to transfer OTC stocks from other accounts to it and boy did that make IB uncomfortable. They got me on the phone to ask all kinds of questions but ultimately approved the transfers.
I expected IB to turn all of them down except I-80 as it was on the NYSE. However they turned down it as well as Eloro. They took Magna and denied Emo. They also took Dolly Varden and Eskay as well as a couple of Australian that have been in my account since I had Novo. They also allowed First Tellurium, Brunswick and Firefox but not interested in any of my Nevada stocks. I am curious to see if my alternating day scenario continues with 2 brokerage firms in the mix and how the Bid/Ask compares real time, as well as the currency adjustments.
Martin Armstrong today: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com
How about a rename of Impact Silver to Sloth Silver or Snail Silver. It isn’t having much positive impact anymore.
ipt the acclaimed market trendsetter now described in such pitiful but honest terms.
You’re a myopic fool. Nothing unusual or worrisome is happening but you can’t be a short term price-obsessed ignoramus and understand that.
Could too much lead/zinc be weighing down IPT?
Looks like there could be some gold at Plomosas
Last I checked IPT was the purest silver play out there with over 90% of its revenue coming from silver and the number two credit being gold. That’s likely to change soon though now that it has picked up that zinc project.
Silver bottomed last year about 2 months before gold and the yen and I gave it the “all clear” 5 or 6 months ago but it’s been lagging lately with respect to important “technicals” even though it is up 7% vs gold in just the last 6-7 sessions (down from +9% in 4 sessions last Wednesday). With the gold-silver ratio still around 88 there’s plenty of fear out there and understandably so. Herd perceptions forever rule the short term and the herd is currently worried about a banking system collapse. Fear is the one emotion that matches or beats greed when it comes to motivating people to take action.
Silver underperformed gold for 11 weeks straight as both fell in dollars but last week marked a low that I think will hold for a very long time. Now silver needs to prove itself while also confirming gold’s action as more than just a fleeting news driven event and it will.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p68048885187&a=1266243855
Green Part 2 for the day. Barely….
Red again …
SILJ should dump this turd or at least cut its weighting way down from #1 holding.
First Majestic Temporarily Suspends Mining Activities at Jerritt Canyon
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-majestic-temporarily-suspends-mining-201500253.html
Renamed First Pathetic Silver
The Canadian dollar closed above its 20 day MA for the first time in 5 weeks while giving its first daily MACD buy signal since December.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p98594355303&a=1359362289
https://tinyurl.com/52euebw7
NatGas Bottoming.
Gold WOW!