Weekend Show – Big Picture Investing Themes Looking Past The Banking Crisis
Welcome to the Weekend Edition of the KE Report! Every Fed week is a big deal for markets but now with the banking issues in the US and around the world this was a particularly important meeting. Be sure to go back through this week’s posting where Shad covered the market moves and a number of company updates.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report website kicks off the show with a discussion on the banking system. This is ties in with lending conditions and how markets move in times of tighter credit markets.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital wraps up the show with a focus on the junior resource stock sector. It’s a different investment take on the production side of the industry.
Bingo Richard, I have been talking about a Deflationary Depression on this site for 10 years, a very long time. Only through deflation can you cure the system, the rotten parts must be allowed to go bankrupt. Deflation is the disaster that will lead the economy out of this quagmire.
The Fed still thinks they can guide the economy, but they destroyed it in the 1920’s leading up to The Great Depression of the 1930’s and this is a replay of their losing ways. The worse the economy gets the more others will see The Fed as the cause and eventually The Fed will have to pull funding and let the Crash takeover because if hyperinflation is allowed all eyes will be on The Fed as the cause and their days will be numbered. The Fed never wants to see a loaf of bread selling for a wheelbarrow full of cash. DT
The Uranium stocks mostly rolled over in November of 2021 and cracked a long time ago, heading in a downwards pattern the last 1 1/2 years, so at this point the corrective move is closer to the end then just beginning to crack. There were a few good swing trades over this corrective period of time, just like there always are in bearish periods when there are relief rallies, but overall the sentiment in the Uranium stocks has been ugly since the early part of 2022 and continued to deteriorate into 2023.
I was actually nibbling at some of them again and adding to my positions over the last 2 days. Uranium is not like many other metals or other energy commodities like oil or nat gas, because it has a unique fundamental supply/demand situation based on global energy trends in Nuclear energy. Also the fuel supply in the open market has all but been mopped up, and utility companies will need to contract directly with companies for more supply in the next 18 months.
More Uranium will still be required even if manufacturing slows or consumers buy less stuff in a recession or all out deflationary bust, or the lights go out. It is still about 20% of the power contribution in the US and about 14% globally, and it stable baselode power that will be required in good economic times or bad economic times. So even if global growth slows, we are at a huge imbalance short-fall of Uranium in 2023, and were last year, and will be next year. All the reactors under construction and coming on line are going to need to buy fuel in advance, not to mention the 430+ other reactors still in service and having their lifespan’s extended.
When people erroneously lump Uranium in with Copper, or Zinc, or Iron, or even Oil, they are doing themselves a huge disservice, as well as those extrapolating out the last few years onto the next few years. Uranium is going to continue to trek higher for the next 3-5 years, with pullbacks along the way of course, but those are pullbacks that should be accumulated.
Justin Huhn is one of the more well-informed individuals tracking the Uranium and Nuclear fuel cycle, and as he recently pointed out, the real Uranium Bull market has not even began yet. All of the huge moves higher in recent years were some of the easiest money to make for those of us that were positioned correctly, but the big moves haven’t even really started yet.
Uranium Market Minute – Episode 200: The Uranium Bull Market has Yet to Begin
Justin Huhn – Uranium Insider – Mar 9, 2023
There has been some price-based deterioration lately and the weekly oscillating indicators are bearish. There’s also “trapdoor” potential for next week.
URA peaked in January along with the gold and silver stocks but the similarity ended there.
Short term, bulls can find legitimate hope in the oversold daily chart which is due for some relief and might be forming a double bottom.
Matthew – Thanks for sharing the URA charts and technical comments.
Past saturation indications on CCJ and URA have been accurate. If not successful bottom retests Friday, significant saturated lows are possible Tuesday or Wednesday. Will monitor. BDC
Rick Rule recently made several positive comments about Cameco.
Rick is pretty plugged in to the Uranium sector, and was influential behind the scenes in getting the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust in place (taking over the Uranium Participation Corp) to track physical U308 prices, and then URNM ETF which is really the best way to track the Uranium miners and a lot better ETF than the URA in the choice of companies selected and the weightings.
Now there is also the newer Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) which is probably my favorite ETF to really track the U mining stocks, and removes the heavy weighting in the URNM to the Sprott Uranium Trust and the larger producers.
URNJ is like the GDXJ or SILJ of the Uranium sector, and thus more congruent with the Uranium mining stock investor’s experience in the sector.
If I could only hold 1 Uranium position in my portfolio moving forward, it would be URNJ.
However, I prefer building my own ETF with my own weightings and then rebalancing accordingly.
Agreed that the historical credit bubble that took interest rates to zero, has come to an end. First disinflation, then possible deflation. And with every financial cycle in history, credit expansion has limits and has a way of self correcting. in the end. Now its time to pay for that debt. In every bubble, the con that is embedded is finally revealed………….in this case it’s the magic of calling debt an asset, a triple “A” asset to boot…………….just like the ACB’s were rated as triple “A” in 2008……sound familiar ?……and when that asset is revealed as toxic, it’s time to stay clear of those that own them !
Peter B. is a level headed guy, and I agree with him, now people are going to go back to earning, saving then buying things and not relying on cheap credit………………….the banking party is over for this cycle………just hoping it can be a more gentle unwind for systemic stability…………but I fear it’s too much to ask for !
Before some genius invented mortgages, houses were affordable…………in 1963 my dad bought a nice 3 bedroom home for $12000 cash…………..and very happy not being a slave to bankers !!!!
Gold’s Strong Turn!
Internal Pull Back.
Dropped to the 78.6% area.
Turn, trading range, or
deeper pull back?
GDX looks great and the bears are on thin ice.
Speed line and fork breakouts: Daily HUI looks strong and shows no sign of topping.
SILJ is struggling at resistance but finished the last two sessions above its 50 day MA.
My Silver producers are telling me it’s time for a bust out! There is nothing like a good Bust Out! 😍
LISTEN UP! “FORGET GOLD”! something far BIGGER is happening with SILVER. – Rick Rule
You are spending too much time infatuated with the uranium market when you should be concentrating on silver producers especially the small cap species. There is lots of time to get into the uranium market after this bull run in silver becomes a fete complete. LOL! DT
DT – I spent some time sharing information on the Uranium sector this weekend, because I’ve been in it for a dozen years, feel most retail resource investors and even some of the pundits and talking heads in the resource sector still don’t even understand the basic fundamentals of the sector. I read and listen to people, even smart savvy investors, shoot their mouths off all the time talking about it having topped, or simply following the commodities sector moving forward, when they don’t know jack squat about the real drivers of the sector, the solid companies in the sector that will actually get their projects into production, or they don’t have a clue about how the nuclear fuel cycle works. I posted Justin Huhn’s Uranium Insider link because he does have a fantastic grasp on the uranium and nuclear fuel sector, and does get it.
I was just spending a bit of time on it this weekend because it caught my attention, but the vast majority of my portfolio is positioned in the gold and silver and PM royalty stocks at present and has been for over a year now, and I’ve mentioned that dozens of times here on the forum and in interviews I’ve done.
As far as focus on the Uranium stocks, I only maintain 7 positions in the sector as this point and it’s about 13% of my portfolio.
As far as focusing on Silver, especially silver producers, there are few contributors on this forum or site that have shined more of a focus on this area of the resource space than I have for over 15 years as a silver bug, so I’m not sure what you are talking about as far as focusing more on Silver stocks and producers. That is my main bread & butter and has been my focus for years. (??)
> I hold 12 Silver Producers in my portfolio at present, and they are some of my most heavily weighted positions. How many silver producers do you hold at present? 😉
> In addition, I hold 5 other Silver Developers and 3 other Silver Explorers. How many do you hold at present?
>> Here is the list of the Silver stocks I hold currently, with the producers first, developers next, and explorers last. I don’t run into many investors in discussions I have with them about portfolios that have more portfolio positions or percentage of a portfolio exposed to silver mining stocks, so your comments struck me as kind of funny amigo. 🙂
Americas Gold & Silver
Avino Silver & Gold
Impact Silver Corp
Vizsla Silver Corp
Dolly Varden Silver
AbraSilver Resource Corp
Discovery Metals Corp
Silver Tiger Metals
Excellent response. The future is an unknown and more so than ever because of intervention. We do what we can but asserting absolutes is always a risk. Thanks for your in depth search for possibilities.
Thanks Lakedweller2. Good point.
Don’t worry, reality ultimately puts very real limitations on interventions. As Chen Lin has been saying lately, silver is the next lithium. I’d add “and then some” to that.
Just wait until the herd realizes that deflation is not the threat that they currently think it is. That of course will happen as risk assets fly away from it (as usual).
No PAAS, KUYA, Eloro, AG, or PSLV ?
Bonzo. Nope. I’ve not held First Majestic in a while, and based on their recent underperformance, gratefully so.
Pan American.. too big for my tastes but a solid company and not as much torque as Hecla, Couer, and Silvercorp.
Eloro is intersting to me as a polymetallic with tin, silver, lead, zinc, copper.. Still watching for entry.
Kuya is a cool little company, moving towards toll milling in Peru, and making some interesting discoveries in Cobalt, Canada.
Sorry Ex, I didn’t mean any harm, I just wanted to get a list of your silver producers! Next time I will simply ask you to share what you are invested in as you always oblige. Take care amigo! Cheers, DT
I am looking at Cartier Silver and their new property within yodeling distance of Eloro. Santacruz also is knee deep in Bolivia. I am trying to get under the radar of the algos. Fat chance.
It’s all good DT. I’m always happy to share what I’m trading and holding in my portfolio, and just didn’t want the impression to be there that I was not still very constructive on the Silver mining stocks, in lieu of Uranium. I do expect both Silver and Uranium stocks to blow peoples minds over the next few years, and both have a more speculative zany audience (which I appreciate).
I look at a number of other resource stocks and periodically hold different base metals, specialty metals, uranium, and oil/nat gas stocks during different phases, but I’ve always been a bit overweight to silver and gold stocks, and my primary focus since late 2021 has been adding to a very overweight portfolio of PM stocks for the most part.
Like you mentioned, once the PMs have a nice run for the next 1-2 years, then I’m likely to start rotating some of those properties into other commodities stocks in bigger weightings further down the line…
Yeah, Lakedweller2, we’ve had the Cartier Silver guys on the show previously, after acquiring that project down in Bolivia, and need to reach back out to them for an update sometime soon.
A good example of the benefits of diversification in one’s portfolio…
Today on Monday the 27th, thus far… the PM stocks are quite muted, with a slight downside bias, but most of the Uranium stocks are up 3%-5%, so it is wise to spread one’s risk and also potential opportunity around to different sectors in the resource stocks, as well as different stage of mining for the companies in one’s portfolios.
Gold is in a high risk high reward situation so both hedges and leveraged positions make sense. One obvious source of leverage is silver and another is the miners.
Note that gold has already moved 25%/$400 off its October low.
It took about 7 weeks but GDM:Gold has recaptured speed line and 50 day MA resistance…
On the way down to my range bound life, I am looking at Bolivia.
(My thinking is that they don’t have enough 5 star hotels for Wall Street or Hedge Funds to go there.)
They can’t destroy the dollar and eliminate the debt for the banks by stopping inflation. They don’t care about anything but saving Central Banking. Destroying corporate control is not an option.
Whether the Dollar continues as lone primary world currency, or another is added creating a duopoly, it is possible that after the dust settles a standard to secure stable value may be enabled. Gold, the monetary metal, fits the bill.
Gold would again become price fixed. Current conditions suggest $3000, though this is fully dependent upon the inflation/deflation outlook, and reality, at that future time. BDC
‘Nothing Is As Expensive As Free Money’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (03/25/2023)
There’s little reason to own copper producers when you can own gold producers…
Just a note that I was listening to some recent speeches on the global scene and I found one set of comments made by the President of Kenya to be of interest. He signaled pointedly to his business and citizen community to get out of the US dollar, and he specifically stated the timeline of: ‘within the next two weeks’. He immediately followed that up with a clear reason of a change occurring at that two-week time period. His words, to me, weren’t an off-the-cuff set of comments of gloom and doom, but rather a warning of something incoming. Anyway, thought I’d share.
His warning is consistent with the charts.
Among other things, the HUI is up 18% versus the dollar in just the last 2 weeks and it’s just barely getting started.
The last three gold bull markets saw gold rise by roughly 7-8 fold and the current one could easily do the same (starting from the $1,045 low of 2015) but here’s another way to arrive at $8,000 or so:
Interesting chart Matthew, and yes the pathway to higher gold prices eventually as high as $8K makes a lot of sense technically, and I really enjoyed Michael Oliver’s points as well about the 3 historic periods where gold went up 7-8 fold, in the recent interview with him (that part starts around the 16:45 min mark)
That chart doesn’t make much sense once it has expired so here it is one more time:
Thanks for the reposted chart, and yes, I was more looking at the annotated notes you had left as the rationale for higher prices, but they make more sense in context with the chart now. Much appreciated.
GDX is at a 70 week high relative to the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index but based on momentum/strength it’s at a 156 week (3 year) high. However, this is the beginning of a bull move while 156 weeks ago was near the end of a bull move.
Money flows out of oil into gold.
Terry – that was an interesting article on the somewhat recent outflows from oil & nat gas, and inflows into gold as more of a safe haven in uncertain times.
The recent pullbacks in the energy sector, are making some of the oil & nat gas stocks far more attractive as an overall group, with many that have had their valuations cut in half over the last 6-8 months.
I still believe PMs are the place to be for the next 2 years, but am considering starting to accumulate another portfolio of oil & nat gas stocks during this current corrective move in the energy sector.
As predicted recently, uranium stocks are starting to crack. This will be a year of struggle for most asset classes. The current BTFP insures that bank failures are more on the radar then inflation now and is just QE of another form. It also has reversed almost 2/3rds of the QT that the Fed began months ago. There definitely now is a danger hardly discussed by the pundits and others—and that is the potential of deflation if credit contraction accelerates.