Jordan Roy-Byrne – Gold Is On The Cusp Of A New Secular Bull Market That Will Move The Whole PM Sector Higher

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review why the technical and fundamental picture is setting up to have gold poised on the cusp of breaking out into a new secular bull market, that will lift up the entire precious metals sector to higher levels.  All eyes will be fixed on where gold closes this month and quarter this coming Friday.  A close above $1953 in March would be the highest quarterly close on record, and a close above $1986 would be the highest monthly close.  Gold is presently within range of those resistance levels, so they are very much on the table for how things finish this week. Ultimately though, it is likely going to take breakout in gold to all-time highs above $2100 to really get some momentum going in PM mining stocks and silver.


From a macro sense, Gold has been continuing to outperform general equities and continues to make higher levels against foreign currencies.  Also, to further validate that Gold is setting up in a new bull market, when Gold corrected in February and early March it was only about 8% over that time period, and then quickly recovered those losses and blasted back higher once again for the balance of March. This is in alignment with what one would expect to see in bull market corrections.


Jordan feels that whether this breakout move higher in gold to new all-time highs happens in a few weeks or a few months, he feels it is coming and that it will lift the GDX and GDXJ to new highs once it then starts to really gain traction on the way to $3000 in the longer term.    In addition, a breakout to new highs in gold will also drag silver prices higher along with it, but ultimately, it is when silver can break through the $26-$28 resistance zone that it can then break decisively back up north of $30 and beyond.  




Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

    Mar 29, 2023 29:08 PM

    IBKR is a new experience. Will need a sabbatical.

    Mar 29, 2023 29:38 PM

    Despite all the naysaying about how bad the PM stocks have been doing, compared to the metals, it really comes down to which kinds of stocks one holds and which particular stocks one is talking about.

    For those true contrarian investors that were using the weakness last summer and fall to accumulate some of the torqued up mid-tier and junior gold and silver producers, and not just gambling everything on drill plays that may or may not prove up an economic deposit, then many of those are up quite nicely double-digits off their lows of last year.

    For example, one of my larger silver producer positions, (SVM) Silvercorp Metals is up 91% from it’s September 2022 low of $1.98 to where it closed today at $3.78. I didn’t personally catch that low, but I did buy my last meaningful tranche in July at $2.29, so it is still working out to be a solid trade, and has a lot of room to keep running higher over the next 12-18 months.

    SVM appears to have formed a cup & handle pattern of sorts, which is set up to resolve bullishly over the next year+.

      Mar 29, 2023 29:51 PM

      One of my larger gold producer positions is still (CXB) Calibre Mining, and look how much it is up from it’s media scare low about US sanctions of Nicaragua, where almost everyone overreacted (just like usual) and the stock bottomed at $0.52 in October of 2022, and closed today at $1.29 up 148% in the last 6 months.

      Is that something to be crying in one’s soup over? I think not…

      Is that outperformance to the gold or silver price moves, just like Silvercorp was? I think so….

        Mar 30, 2023 30:01 AM

        I’ve got back into (EQX) Equinox Gold in later 2022, and have a medium-sized weighting in it, and have just been sitting on it for the eventual rerating higher, which as been happening over the last few months.

        EQX was channeling sideways in that $3.20-$2.90 zone for a while, then made it’s spike low last year to $2.35 in November of 2022 (on blockade issues at one of their mines that was resolved). Well EQX closed today at $5.21 for a gain of roughly 122% over the last 5 months.

        Is that outperforming the move that gold had since November? Of course it is…

          Mar 30, 2023 30:23 AM

          We’ve discussed (IAUX) I-80 Gold Corp on here a number of times, we’ve had guests on the show that has discussed them, and we’ve the CEO Ewan Downie on the show a number of times (just had him on again last week in fact).

          IAUX made a double bottom last year at $1.52 in July of 2022, and then again at $1.53 in September of 2022. Since those 2 lows at $1.52-$1.53, it shot up 109% to to $3.18 in December, dove back down to make a higher low at $1.99, and moved up again to close at $2.34. That is still up 54% off it’s lows of last year and is solidly outperforming the move in gold.

          I did not catch the exact low at $1.52-$1.53, of course, but I did buy some tranches last July at $1.78, $1.63, $1.65, $1.60, and then in October at $1.77. I sold the position in December at $2.89 to harvest the gains last year.

          However, I’ve been averaging back in during pullbacks in 2023 (with my most recent tranches added in early March at $2.02 and $2.05, because I have little doubt that the stock will eclipse it’s recent high of $3.18 and likely double that over the next 2 years. If I just hold to north of $6 from here it will be another 3 bagger on top of the nice nearly double I got on it last year. That’s just my personal thesis and definitely not investment advice.

          The point being though, that we a number of contributors here on the KER forum, and then guests on the show, and then the CEO himself on interviews multiple times talking about I-80 Gold during much of last year and into this year. Any investor could have jumped in and made 50%-109% if they were accumulating lows and selling highs, or even more if someone was trading in and out of the stocks buying dips and selling rips.

          When people keep proclaiming that the PM stocks have been dead and boring during this move higher in gold and silver…. I keep scratching my head bewildered by this sentiment. There have been plenty of pullbacks to buy and tradable rallies to sell into when following most of the producers and most advanced developers for the last 6 months for anyone paying attention.

            Mar 30, 2023 30:47 AM

            (CDE) Coeur Mining is one we all talked about a number of times every year for a long time. It’s one I swing-trade and position-trade over and over and over again and have for years…

            Last year CDE made a triple bottom of sorts at $2.54 in July, $2.59 in August, and $2.65 in September of 2022. It then proceeded to go up 71% to peak at $4.35 in November of 2022, so not a bad return in just a few months. Then it dove back down $3.13 and $3.11 in late November and early December, but then turned back higher and ran to another peak at $4.27, and even that was a 37% spread that could have been traded. Now recently in early March, CDE pulled back down to $2.83 and then in a few weeks shot back up another 32% to close today at $3.75.

            So that was a 71% gain opportunity, followed by a 37% gain opportunity, followed by a 32% gain opportunity all in the last 6 months for a total potential of 140% gains. Now nobody is going to trade it perfectly back and forth, but nobody has to. There is plenty of meat on the bone there to snag some easy double-digit trades, but or just buy the dips and keep holding.

            I did buy CDE last July at $2.67 (and the intermediate low was $2.54 so good enough). I also added another trance in February at $2.91. Again…. it closed today at $3.75, and I could see it easily doubling from here over the next year or so.

            >> Is the action in CDE, just like the companies mentioned above, and so many other companies I’ve not mentioned outperforming the moves in the metals? Of course it is.

            The irony is that so many dis on the mid-tier producers, smaller producers, and larger developers in lieu of drillplays that may be touching 52 week lows. Look, if the producers are going to respond immediately and leverage the moves in gold and silver, then why in world are people not positioning in them near oversold corrective moves?

            We see this same pattern play out over and over again, at each bottom, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ move up sharply double-digits, and they are made up of mostly large, medium, and some small producers, and some of the larger developers. We talk about it, investors know it, and then you check with folks portfolio performance and they are sour grapes because their basket of penny dreadful drill plays haven’t moved up a lot yet. Well what about your producers? Oh, you only own explorers…. Sure they can have epic moves but they are so much riskier than a known entity like Coeur, or Equinox, or Silvercorp, or just holding GDXJ or SILJ.

            I heard people popping off at the New Orleans Investment Conference and at VRIC that they don’t hold any producers, because they want to swing for the fences with exploration plays. Alrighty then…

            Why not make 30% or 50% or 70% or 100% in some producers when the markets turn higher, and THEN take those profits and go buy some beat up explorers making near 52 week lows instead? It’s just mind-numbing to see the same pattern over and over, followed by the same sentiment blues about the explorers not moving much. Rinse and repeat…

            Here is the Coeur chart, and it has had plenty of tradable action for anyone that just bought dips and sold rips….


            Mar 30, 2023 30:04 AM

            How about (HL) Hecla…. come on now… we’ve all talked about this forever… How many people actually hold it in their portfolio though, and buy the dips and sell the rips on good ole HL?

            For goodness sakes, it’s been in business 125 years, so it’s pretty damn good odds that it is not going out of business or going to $0 anytime soon. HL is a super easy way to play the silver/gold space in a safe Tier 1 North American jurisdiction. It’s a freakin’ layup of a company to have in one’s portfolio to capture the moves at turns in the metals prices.

            Look at the pricing journey it has been on since just last year, which is a very similar story to all the aforementioned companies. In double-bottomed in (you guessed it) July at $3.43 and September at $3.40. Noticing a pattern here? Most of these stocks bottomed in both July and September last year (a few took a bit longer), but these moves also mirrored the lows in GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, etc… Last summer when sentiment was terrible, a few of us were discussing buying in July, and buying in September into the blood in the streets, when others were warning to sell everything and cower in cash.

            Well, since the lows in HL at $3.43 and the backtest down to $3.40, it ratcheted up 90% to $6.47 in January. Again, even if someone didn’t catch the exact lows or sell the exact highs, that is plenty of spread to make some cake on buying one of the oldest gold/silver miners in North America.

            Personally I bought some HL at $3.63 in mid July last year, and then added more at $3.51 in late September last year, but elected not to get fancy trying to trade it, and just have held it thus far. Well, it closed today at $6.16, so the trade is working out pretty well so far, and again, I could see this trekking much higher. HL was up at $9.44 just in the summer of 2021, and that was a valuation before it has now gobbled up both Alexco Resources and ATAC Resources just over the last year.

            Where will HL head at $2200 gold and $30+ silver…? Higher…. Maybe not as high as a drill play, but it is far lower risk overall, and more of a sure bet to at least react to the higher metals prices to come.

            Here is the (HL) Hecla chart to demonstrate that investing in PM mining stocks is not rocket science:


            Mar 30, 2023 30:11 AM

            The point of all the comments and charts above, is that it is not difficult to find opportunities to trade and capitalize on in the PM mining stocks, and there are tons of other companies I could have picked to illustrate the exact same points.

            I was literally just going down some of the larger weighted positions in my personal portfolio and putting up facts, numbers, and charts as to how they absolutely outperformed the moves in both gold and silver, and they were easy to accumulate during the silly oversold valuations we saw last year in July and September, because they are relatively stable companies to hold.

            One doesn’t have to be perfect or nail the exact bottom or top to still do very well in this sector, as the moves are so exaggerated that with windows of 30%-100% moves over just a few months, there is plenty of room to get in scalp some great gains, while one is waiting for tiny micro-cappers to wake up. If people have not been taking advantage of this price swings over the last 6-8 months, then I’ve got to wonder when they plan on buying, after gold and silver break out to new highs and these things go up another 30%-100%?

            Mar 30, 2023 30:14 AM

            I’m out of steam on this thread, but as I look near the top of my portfolio weightings, here were a few more companies that are weighted just a bit smaller than the ones just charted above.

            (VZLA) Vizsla Silver – It’s made a move from a low of $0.91 in (you guessed it) July of 2022, and closed today at $1.52.


            Mar 30, 2023 30:18 AM

            How about (DV) Dolly Varden. We’ve talked about it on here over and over, guests have come on an talked about it, and we’ve had the CEO Shawn Khunkhun on the show a number times to unpack their newsflow.

            It made a move from it’s low at $0.355 in September, shot up to $1.15 in January of this year for a 3 bagger (over 300%) in just 5 months, and has settled back down to a modest $0.93 at the close today.


            Mar 30, 2023 30:25 AM

            I’ll stop ranting here, but the point is easy to see on every chart posted up above.

            If people truly liked “buying low” then they would have been deploying cash (not selling everything to run to cash) last July and September, like some of us on here mentioned we were doing.

            The reality is, most investors really don’t like buying low. They like buying after the easy gains have been made, and once the price charts look pretty.

            Maybe when gold gets up to $2400, $2600, or $3000 or silver gets up to $35, $40, $50 then they’ll feel like it is safe to get back in the water and buy high, after these mining stocks have rerated much higher. They’ll feel good because they’ll be part of the herd at that point in time and get reinforcement from everyone about how things are really going well for the sector. 😉

            I’ll be ready to shave off some shares I bought during the height of negative sentiment in the summer and fall of 2022, to hand them the bag when they are finally ready to deploy their cash near the next intermediate peak.

            Ever Upward!

            Mar 30, 2023 30:41 AM

            It’s become very apparent Ex that those boring PM stock comments are aimed directly at Matthew………and in particular to Impact especially… you’ve pointed out, many have had nice moves already, hecla being one of them which Matthew has his buys clearly stated on….I’m more impressed by those who make calls then those who chide them and never make any….unless it’s in hindsight.

            Mar 30, 2023 30:52 AM

            Wolfster – What in the world are you talking about??

            Those comments were not directed at Matthew in the slightest, and had nothing to do with Impact Silver (neither were mentioned directly or even hinted at indirectly). I have a large position in Impact Silver, and like the stock a great deal. I also appreciate Matthews charts and when he points out he is buying them. How that was your takeaway from what I posted is confusing and definitely missed the point.

            Look , I clearly stated a number of times in both July and September of last year that I was buying, and mentioned adding to a number of the stocks listed above, when Joe the prophet was advising us repeatedly to sell everything and go to cash. My comments weren’t just in hindsight, but buying into the negative sentiment lows last summer and fall with my dry powder was the right call.

            The point, which you seemed to have missed completely (based on your response back to me) was that most investors don’t like buying low or when valuations are silly, and then likewise they struggle selling into the strength, sitting in stocks like bumps on a log.

            The other point was that people continually are not positioned correctly in the mid-tier producers, smaller producers, and more widely followed developers when there are bottoming/basing periods in the metals and then they turn higher. As a result, many PM investors that love mining stocks, repeatedly miss some of the easiest gains to capture in the PM mining stocks.

            We routinely hear from or read comments from waves of investors whining that their explore co is not moving higher with the metal at each turn higher; when people could have simply bought household names like Coeur, Hecla, Silvercorp, Equinox, etc… and had large double-digit gains without much risk or need for much due diligence.

            If nothing else they could have just bought the ETFs. Instead though, most are out of position and in only risky earlier stage exploration stories at each of the turns in the sector, and then miss some of the easy torque to rising prices. We saw it when the metals moved in the first 8 months of 2016, in late 2018 and into 2019, we saw it coming out of the pandemic lows of 2020, we saw it in the silver squeeze in early 2021. The metals moved, and the producers moved, and some of the more liquid developers, especially ones with big board US listings, and yet many of the tiny micocappers didn’t participate as much. (a few rare exceptions did move in the tiny drill plays in outsized moves, but they are the exception).

            That was the point I was making, about having exposure to the companies that are going to initially move when the metals take off, and that there were huge spreads of gains in many producers or developers over the last 6 month that could have been exploited, even if one didn’t catch the bottoms or tops.

            Hopefully that helps clear up any confusion as to what the posts and charts up above illustrate.

      Mar 30, 2023 30:01 PM

      Great series of posts! I know we differ in our approach in that you bravely buy on the way down to average in and I like to wait until the percentage of stocks in the industry has stopped dropping and starts improving. So I like never get the bottom and likely get an worse average price for each move. But I can be risk adverse and hate buying declining assets all the way down.

      One of my timing secret weapons is the silver cross index of the GDX:
      When it reaches an extreme and then returns, it’s usually a good idea to do something somewhere around there. You won’t catch the exact bottom as it’s the percent of the GDX with a 20 day over the 50 day EMA, but when you reach a breadth extreme and then it reverses, it’s a very consistent positive sign. I use it in combination with other points to protect profit/capital.

      I look at breadth *daily* because it’s just consistently a good signal of major changes after it reaches an extreme. Just part of my daily process to CTRL-click a bookmark folder and bring up all my breadth charts after they update in the early evening.

        Mar 30, 2023 30:04 PM

        Hi DL, and great comments regarding tracking the overall sector breadth for signs of a top/bottom, and I appreciate the heads up on using the silver cross gold miners index on GDX. It looks like a tool similar to BPGDM for looking a sector stocks breadth. Nice!

          Mar 30, 2023 30:58 PM

          I love the bullish percent index as well. It’s less “all or nothing” than the silver cross index, which tends to just rocket up and down once a good portion of the larger producers get moving one way or the other.

    Mar 30, 2023 30:27 AM

    I got your point Ex. I was commenting directly to your first paragraph and the naysayers about PM stocks vs the metals which has been made especially by one individual in particular who cherry picks their examples and focuses on the 2 or 3 that haven’t moved from Matthews array of picks and charts.

      Mar 30, 2023 30:32 AM

      I think you’ve been up too late Ex.🤣🤣🤣…….you actually thought I meant you… don’t make calls in hindsight. You’ve been very clear where and when you put your money to work.

        Mar 30, 2023 30:14 AM

        Hi Wolfster, Yeah, I’ve still not gone to sleep and it’s very early in the morning, so I apologize and must have misread your post. I didn’t realize you were talking about Jonsyl’s comments, and did mistake them as directed at me based on how it was worded, and thought you were insinuating I was going after Matthew or making calls in hindsight. Sorry about that, and I get your point now. Thanks for unpacking further what you meant.

        Yes, there are some folks that cherry pick only the companies that haven’t performed, like he does with harping on Impact and regularly going after Matthew. However, to your point he conveniently missed the big gains in Matthews prior calls on Hecla or Coeur or Kootenay or Brixton even the rallies that Impact (Jonsyl’s favorite “dreg” to rip on) has had repeatedly during a number of counter-trend rallies.

        Just for clarity, people could also do that on the other side and point to the crazy moves higher in some explorers as proof of why it is bullish to go all in on explorers, but I purposely didn’t do that. I was trying to use household names like Hecla, Coeur, Silvercorp, Equinox, Calibre, Dolly Varden, and Vizsla to illustrate the same kind of trends that GDX, GDXJ, or SILJ had gone on over the last 6 months, while pointing out additional trading setups that appeared in individual stocks, that could have maximized gains.

        My sincere hope is that a few people read over the thread above and examples used, as a provocative thought experiment, on the makeup of their own portfolios, and if they have exposure to the more liquid stocks that will receive the initial bid in a new upleg in the PMs. In addition, I hope they go back and analyze the sentiment/psychology/and technical analysis side of investing and consider if they were “buying low” last summer and fall, and if not, then why not? Were they buying in the fall of 2018 or the spring of 2019, etc….? If not, then why not? How will it be different at the next intermediate low then?

        The intent on me sharing those examples, was to give investors an idea for one pathway to good returns in this sector, with lower risks, and with companies that are already vetted players in the space.
        More importantly, my wish is for investors to keep learning nuances in this sector and to capitalize on future pullbacks that we see down the road, by getting positioned in some of the companies that will have good outperformance to moves in the underlying gold and silver prices.

          Mar 30, 2023 30:37 AM

          One more final thought before I get some shut-eye…. I don’t mean to imply that there won’t be great gains in a number of the exploration stocks. They can have the most extreme moves to the upside… but not all of them, or even most of them… only the select teams that initially make a new discovery that animates the markets, and then further they delineate special projects that turn out to be economic mines to be developed.

          My point was more along the lines of investors trying to hard to find some obscure company they feel is overlooked or underappreciated, but snubbing their noses at some of the bread and butter producers or explorers that have shown consistent high torque to metals price movements. Sometimes, especially in early moves in a new bull market, it is the established names that pick up the bid first, and one can get nice torque by stepping down in size from the majors, but still going with producing companies with a good growth wedge.

          In each of the rally periods in 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, as well as the recent 6 month blast higher since Sept of 2022, companies like Hecla or Coeur or Silvercorp, or many other peer companies got a bid and had big moves, and yet many investors had not producers at all in their mix. If nothing else having a stake in one of the ETFs like GDXJ or SILJ would give investors a vehicle for capturing the initial moves in the metals.

          Anecdotally, I’ve talked to a few different newsletter writers and individual investors that mentioned in previous periods of time that they actually did better holding a basket of the mid-tier or smaller producers, or more widely followed developers, and actively buying dips and selling rips. However, over time and once they learned more about the sector they ended up going down the food chain into a more speculative basket of vastly more obscure micro-cap exploration plays, and haven’t fared quite as well in returns. The takeaway I got from those discussion was that they are swinging for the fences and looking for bragging rights on the few outperforming success stories that do become the big sector winners like Great Bear. Honestly, I think one can outperform most other investors if they have mostly producers, royalty companies, and larger developers and then sprinkle in some smaller developers, explorers, and optionality plays. Again, one could hold an ETF as an anchor diversified position and then mix in some smaller juniors for the extreme leverage, versus only holding explorers.

          It just depends, as everyone has different unique risk tolerances, thoughts on jurisdictions, investing goals, and strategies, but I’ve asked dozens and dozens of investors or they’ve shared the information with me directly about their portfolios, and it is very common to see only baskets of really risky earlier stage explorers. I’ll ask about the producers and royalty companies and they’ll respond back that they don’t have any. Then I’ll check on the larger well-known developers, and they won’t have any of those either. That always just blows my mind, because there is nothing worse than being in a gold or silver bull market and holding a portfolio of companies that haven’t proved they have an economic gold or silver deposit yet. Why not at least have some position in companies with actual gold and silver confirmed and delineated and even profiting from the production of said metals?

            Mar 30, 2023 30:14 AM

            Silver looks good this am., up 1.78% to $23.75. The silver junior producers are where I am heavily weighted. DT

            Mar 30, 2023 30:42 PM

            Yes indeed DT. Silver looking good, and the silver stocks looking even better.

            It’s a nice green day across most of the resource sector today, and my portfolio is up 6.2% on the day, so not too shabby with a basket of roughly 60 stocks. Nice to see some activity in the sector again.

    Mar 30, 2023 30:55 AM

    You all gonna be rich !!!

    Mar 30, 2023 30:24 AM

    the /Gc trading cycle is due…it has pulled back a whopping 32% from the 2/27 T-C low…nothing…strong like bull….an abc down exists on 240 minute w target 1945 /GC June….a bit below that .382…load up….

    I have an order in for /NGMay at 2.04….that would be a confluence of abcd’s and extensions…glta

      Mar 30, 2023 30:40 AM

      Larry, how does that tranlate to BOIL?

        Mar 30, 2023 30:05 AM

        My guess is about 3.13 BOIL.

          Mar 30, 2023 30:21 AM

          boil 0n 30 minute shows the final? ABC down at 1 to 1 right here and now 3.26

            Mar 30, 2023 30:49 AM

            Market Makers v. Hedge Funds !!

    Mar 30, 2023 30:47 AM

    Hey, where are the negative nellys, why aren’t they out challenging Ex’s statements above, do you have to wait until a down day for silver? Come on, challenge him, give him rebuttal, get yer dukes up and fight, you all know yer right so defend yer positions, call him out, use yer facts, use yer emotions, come on, let’s hear it. Tell him how Impact is going down forever… seriously, I want to hear how you explain this is a bear market still…

    Mar 30, 2023 30:29 AM

    60 minute BOIL…Annotaded are the final? two ABCD down patterns….1:1’s are 3.46 and 2.78

    The 1.27’s are 3.23 and 2.52

    I will trade the boil off of /NG june…but this is the second op to go long a lot of time symmetry is lined up along w the expansions…glta

      Mar 30, 2023 30:08 AM

      I find the accuracy of the ETFs useful, but overnight price adjustments sometimes need to be interpreted via the futures. Cancelled an order in at 3.22. Tomorrow looking more likely, but watching closely. Saturations: — BDC

      Mar 30, 2023 30:13 AM

      I didn’t start all this with my comment about IBKR? (It was first up). Nah… but I invest in explorers like Nine Mile and Fathom Nickel which are having a good day. But… I am trying to navigate IBKR stuff and working on things to transfer. I think I will sneak away and come back later as I need to think currency exchange and money transfers and rebuying options, etc.