Jordan Roy-Byrne – Gold, Silver, GDX, GDXJ Upside Price Targets
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review the technical support and resistance price levels he is watching in gold, silver, GDX, and GDXJ. We start off reviewing the all-time high monthly and quarterly close we saw last week to close up March, and that we have a chance to make a new all-time high weekly close based on where things are currently if things hold up going into Friday’s close. Jordan is encouraged to see silver and the PM mining stocks outperforming gold recently, and noted that GDX and GDXJ did pop above key resistance yesterday, and we’ll need to see some follow though. Another point he stressed was that a key indicator he follows, the advance/decline line and rate of change is signaling that we may see a healthy breadth thrust across the gold and silver mining stocks, which is constructive for the whole sector.
Next we got into a nuanced discussion about where the PM mining stocks are at present, and that many of them should actually be referred to as cheap, rather than undervalued; with the later designation being reserved for companies that do have resource estimates or economic studies that indicate that they have true value that is not being properly factored in. For many stocks in the sector though, especially the earlier stage drill-plays, they don’t really have the demonstrated and defined value to leg to stand on, which is a key distinction. In addition, many producers, have seen considerable cost increases from a similar gold price 12 years ago or even 3 years ago, and thus their margins have been compressed, which explains why they are more cheap versus truly undervalued.
We wrap up with Jordan outlining that we are still quite early in this new secular bull market unfolding, and that based on different takes at the price projections from the cup & handle pattern, that there are logical ways to point to a gold price in the $3000 – $4000 range by late 2025. This kind of move will drag the whole precious metals sector up with it, and should offer some solace to investors that may have missed the move higher in PMs over the last 5-6 months, as there is still plenty more room for upside appreciation in the sector.
Phony jobs #s cut off news.
Whoops … big dump of news. Not many drill results after jobs. We will see. Is it Thurs news or Fri news?
It is always………..Years away………….
Impact, IPT, financing, canceling the recent rise in price.
I have more than enough but am a buyer today anyway.
I bought back in at 36.5, 31 and a bit at 30…
WTIC might fill the gap it recently formed and drop back $10ish, that may cause a short term squiggle for this micro/junior market.
jon sylMar 22, 2023 22:46 AMGot my long dated calls on NEM and AEM. Leverage good here, already up a smidge with the dollar tank.
NG, in particular BOIL also look interesting for a scalp, maybe end of day.Reply
Still holding out on Boil, but may soon add to the nem aem and also fnv. Doing nicely with the leverage. Plenty of time if the sector equities have the big rocket shot as is case with gold itself.
Gold up tons, the sector equities still can’t match end of January highs, incredible underperformance.
At this rate the bagholders that have held thru the gold rally, ever hopeful, to recoop will need one hell of a gold moonshot. First let’s see how they perform with any gold pullback/consolidation in here.
IPT what a joke as posted by Lake. This thing has basically done nothing more than sell off at .40 cents and have pop ups around 26 or so for months. The BELLWEATHER.
Folks loaded up to the gills as with many other dregs for more than a year.
I gather everyone cleared the decks on this one at .40 cents again. As with each of the other pop ups the past months. Sucked in again with acquisition story and other BS. hopium
The chart tells the story,
Awaiting another EX dissertion on how to buy low sell high with surgical precision as a path to riches.
With plenty of retrospective simple to follow instructions.
jon syl, I’ve been advocating and actually doing it, buying low and selling high for many years, and mentioned in real time in July and September of last year that I was buying (not retroactively), while you were dithering about how Joe was “right” and about going to all cash.
I posted the results recently and my trades as a recap of what I had mentioned I’d done at the time, and as an illustration of how well this sector has actually done in the last 5-6 months despite bellyaching like you regularly provide.
Maybe if you whined less, and learned more, instead of only focusing on coming on here on brief down days, then you too could make more money in this sector, even off supposed ‘dregs’.
Most people dont stare at a screen all day. Sure, you can and watch charts for buy/sell.
Most dont, some people simply like to buy a share they feel is going to increase.
ipt for those people has been nothing but a big disapointment.
As far as I.m concerned ipt has been a dog since it hit about $1.25?
But, I dont stare at a screen all day, I dont need to and I prefer other options for my life.
I have noticed over the years that you (ex/shad) and Mathew like to attack or insult people with opinions other than yours, just a thought but I dont believe insults will expand the viewership or encourage the comment community.
The whole sector has been in correction mode since IPT was 1.25 so your assessment is funny. AG and CDE among many others are much larger than IPT yet have performed almost identically. All three fell about 80% since topping in 2020.
You’re as bad as jon syl if you think Ex is insulting and attacking by calling a spade a spade. All joni does around here is whine about things he doesn’t understand. He’s garbage.
There’s nothing wrong with having a buy and hold strategy. That’s what I’m doing with my base metal plays for the most part. Also have some trades that are shorter term. One must do what one’s comfortable with.
With regards to “attacking” other people’s opinions I would have to disagree that’s the case. When someone gives an opinion and gives the rational behind it, we all respect it here. We might debate but certainly don’t attack it. It’s when people make comments continually on down days only it gets tedious. IPT has been moving nicely lately and those who have been trading their shorter term holdings have done well. It’s all relative. My biggest holding Magna could be considered underperforming if one goes by price now vs its recent highs. Yet I’ve held the whole time from .60 and even accumulated more recently.
Look B/Southfront Fan – You don’t have to stare at a screen all day to pull up a chart and spend just a few minutes to ascertain if it’s approaching support or resistance, or if it’s oversold or overbought.
As with all investments, it depends on where someone gets positioned (one lump sum purchase or multiple tranches) to form their cost basis. To bash any stock, without taking into account where people purchased, and assuming your experience is the same as everyone else’s is an ignorant approach (stemming from the word ignore).
Anyone familiar with commodities knows they are not buy and hold investments, but trades, and you don’t just sit in these things for years or decades, whether its gold/silver, or oil/nat gas, or copper, or nickel or PGMs or soft commodities. These are not blue chip general equities and should not be traded as such, and there is a totally different playbook needed for investing resource stocks, more akin to buying Biotech stocks and playing different cycles within the sector or the micro fundamentals of specific companies.
As to your last comment, I don’t attack and generally don’t insult people, and almost never throw the first punch, but I will respond to attacks or lies or painting a person or stock or an event in an incorrect light. In this case, with Jonsyl, just like usual, he’s taken a swipe at me or he’ll take a jab a Matthew and then he wonders why someone will point out the lack of logic in his responses. He just painted what I do in a false light, and I’ll not apologize for pointing out not only is he wrong about what I’ve said (insinuating it’s always after the fact), but he’s off-base, and apparently doesn’t understand even the most basic concept of buying low into oversold conditions and trimming back into overbought conditions.
In addition, jonsyl has repeatedly come on here whining and complaining about specific stocks that he knows some people here invest in (normally on down days too, and silent on big up days which is telling), cherry-picking the rough periods and extrapolating them out as the only outcome people could have had. That would be fine I guess, and everyone is entitled to their own biases and opinions, but I have little patience for complainers or people that extrapolate out the worst case scenario on results each time and have the right to have an opinion on that likewise. That is clearly not everybody’s experience, and it doesn’t help anyone become better investors.
Pretty clear posting as to where I stand and why. No whine here, quite comfortable and for some time. This has to be third time I’ve bought into a leverage play which I dumped in plain view here and now rebought. Trust me it works far better than committing and then churning 95% capital in a dead in the water sector on a minute by minute basis.
Then the defensiveness and the childish characterizations as a defense, when the justified whining is from many here and departed who swallowed the cool aide. As with Southfront fan post above, who gets condemned for expressing the view that folks should not do such a thing. LOL
Except for the occasional flip I’ll wait to see the likes of the IPT and similar recently celebrated penny stocks, now dogs, show at least the ability to keep up with the commodity.
In the meantime this site is entertaining as a source of market news and views.
NG below 2 bucks looks like bargain, let’s see what Boil does closer to the close. Better bet than a lottery bet LOL
Lol….. believe you qualify for entertainment too. I get a good chuckle with some of your comments…… I can only imagine how much bigger my gains would be if I’d been in cash instead of all the penny dogs. 😏
each his own wolf. I’ll take what I can take and when and leverage with limited cash. You can do the opposite and nickel and dime your way to prosperity.
Jonsyl, you are a real piece of work. First you make and untrue claim about somebody, and then when corrected, claim setting the facts straight is “defensiveness” and “childish” (again, you’re the one dishing out the insults and keeping the conflict going, where there needn’t be any).
Likewise you love inflammatory language, as you go on to claim Southfront fan was “condemned” (haha!) The responses above were nothing of the sort and he’s no victim here. He shared his perspective and also took a swipe at Matthew and I, we shared our perspectives back and easily refuted the claims he made or his irrational suppositions.
You guys just can’t stand it when you are corrected after bearing false witness, or making illogical arguments, and while you are entitled to your own opinions, you are not entitled to your own facts.
It’s amazing to me that we have upwards of 20,000 people visiting this site every month, and each of these interviews has 300-1000+ folks listening (and growing), so I wouldn’t worry too much about the departed kool aid drinkers in your hyperbole. Here’s another fact. The only 2 people that I can think of that have come on repeatedly whined about their posts not showing up publicly, jumping immediately to conspiracy theories about censorship or that it was on purpose, or regularly come on to whine or take issue what others post contribute like wet blankets have been you Jonsyl and B/Southfront fan. That’s pretty telling, and those are the facts. It also gets really old and tiresome to listen to the complaining from both you guys for years now. Maybe try a different site that you like better and spare us all?
Meanwhile we get plenty of emails and messages from people that appreciate the site, the interviews, and the comments from contributors here, and actually share ideas to help out other investors. That’s the point of the site, to share ideas that may help people with investments. So if a few hecklers and site trolls don’t come back, when they get back what they dish out, or make untrue claims and get corrected, then I’ll lose zero sleep over that.
For the people that do respect this site, the guests and contributors here, and all the hard work that goes into, we absolutely appreciate your participation and support and may your investing be prosperous.
It might be worth adding a weekly breadth review to your process. One for general equities, one for each industry you are investing in. You’ll quickly become aware of when prices are really bombed out and then begin to turn up or when everything is riding high and begin to turn back down so you can lock in some gains. You can find things by typing in “gold stocks over” or “bullish percent index” or “silver cross index” into the symbol search on stockcharts.com and then there’s also advance decline and McLellan oscillators and a bunch of others. I usually turn off log scale and set the price as a line rather than candles to make it easier to read. I’ll often put related prices below the chart:
I’ve also noticed that optionality plays work in order of profitability. If you’ve got a company with declining production that loses money on each ounce produced, it probably needs a much higher underlying price than one that is already operating at a small profit and has growing production.
I tend to avoid venture exchange stocks as there’s enough volatility in the smaller main exchange listed producers for me. I’m far more likely to find an already profitable producer with optionality to higher prices that will kick off sooner among the larger small producers on the Toronto and New York listings. I’m sure some venture listed stocks will end up being huge winners, but I’ve found their lack of correlation with other prices makes them far more difficult to get right. Gold could hit hall time highs but my favorite venture gold stock might just dribble down and not join in.
Very good comments DL on incorporating breadth readings into the analysis.
Jordan got into that concept a little bit with his points on the advance/decline line, other metrics he follows for breadth within the sector. I typically use and discuss on here the BPGDM indicator, but others have brought up other niche indicators that track stocks making 52 week highs or lows, etc…
We just interviewed TG Watkins for the weekend show, and he spends some time getting into different breadth indicators he looks at for analyzing the general equities. Stay tuned for that.
I’ve become a breadth junky over the last five or so years. I don’t know why it didn’t occur to me earlier: If most stocks in an industry are going down why should the ones I pick somehow be different? And if a increasing percentage of stocks in an industry are going up and participating in a rally but the ones I picked did not, maybe that’s something I should think about.
Example would be improving breadth in crude oil producers, but Baytex isn’t really responding as well as others. It’s potentially on the chopping block next week unless it finally confirms that the breakdown is false.
Looking forward to the TG Watkin’s interview. His youtube videos concentrate a lot on his proprietary indicator but he actually has a lot of general technical analysis info to share that really comes out well in an audio interview format.
+1 Great point DL. If most of a sector is going up or down, then you are stacking the odds in your favor to pay attention to the breadth indicators.
Yep, TG is a sharp guy, and he really hones in on this topic in the interview we’ll release on Saturday.
Dana Lyons also utilizes breadth quite a bit in his quantitative and technical models when trading, to be in harmony with the major trends in the market.
Now, there is always the case to be made for individual sectors or stocks having something unique going on which can make them a good contrarian bet that goes against the herd, and while those can be quite rewarding, it’s always nice to have the sector wind at one’s back for a position trade.
Bought lots of EXK, FSM, SAND last week. It’s overbought on daily but monthly has a long way to go. Notice how Coppock is still under 0
EXK and the whole sector look great and have more potential than even most bulls realize. This bull likely has what it takes to match or exceed the huge moves of 20 years ago and 40+ years ago and the big drawdown since January is a crucial reason among others.
Your EXK has accomplished a lot lately…
EXK’s quarterly MACD never sold but it got close. Consider it rebooted and ready to go higher for many years.
Matthew, Your quarterly chart made me happy. I acquired mid tier Silver miners a couple of weeks ago. You’re right, this bull will go much further than most people have stomach for.
Ex posted this, it’s a must see for everyone who’s a resource investor
Thanks CJ, I just watched and Erik the HH totally gets it!
With silver’s recent accomplishments the silver miners are now ready to fly and outperform the whole sector.
Who Says You Can’t Time The Market? Part Deux
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (04/05/2023)
“A few months ago I wrote post about using the Coppock Curve as a market timing tool. Well, the Coppock Curve for the S&P 500 Index did, in fact, turn higher in March (even if you need a magnifying glass to see it). Other trend-following measures are positive for the index, too: it remains above its 200-day moving average as does the 50-day moving average. These sort of signals suggest this index is currently in an uptrend. However, it is also true that the Coppock Curve did turn higher prematurely in December of 2001, as well, before the S&P 500 Index fell another 30% or so into the fall of 2002. Like any other indicator, this one is not perfect…”