Weekend Show – We Make Sense Of What To Expect For Market and Metals In H2 2023

April 29, 2023

Welcome to the Weekend Edition of the KE Report. With one of the lowest volatility April’s even, we now look ahead to the second half of 2023. Expectations for the second half of 2023 are all about recession, rate cuts and a much worse market environment. We focus this Weekend on what is reasonable vs extreme vs guaranteed.


Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email. We love hearing what all of you think about the markets, metals and companies we featured this week. Or email addresses are and


  • Segment 1 and 2 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx kicks off the show with a discussion ranging from an earnings season recap, currency moves with the Dollar remaining weak, Fed rate cut expectations and the de-dollarization narrative more in the media. 
  • Segment 3 and 4 – Christopher Aaron, Founder of iGold Advisors and Senior Editor at Gold Eagle wraps up the show by diving into the gold, silver and GDX charts. Christopher has never been this bullish on the show before. He explains a number of different factors he likes in the charts.


Marc Chandler
Christopher Aaron
    Apr 29, 2023 29:36 AM

    First Republic Bank expected to collapse by Monday and Fed won’t pivot. QT means deflation, the banks are “Too big to bail”! Deflation! DT

      Apr 29, 2023 29:45 AM

      America is a big Ponzi Scheme controlled by professional gamblers. DT

        Apr 29, 2023 29:07 AM

        This is what you get when you have a nation run by criminals.

        The US Government is a government of the criminals, by the criminals and for the criminals and is the greatest criminal enterprise the world has ever known.

          Apr 29, 2023 29:47 AM

          Yes, and directed by a historical crime syndicate cult.
          Honest Gold/Commodity money possible
          when this is finally resolved.

      Apr 29, 2023 29:56 AM

      +1. “Too big to bail…”

      DT – That continues to be a great line and eventual mantra for the end of this monetary experiment gone wrong.

        Apr 29, 2023 29:49 AM

        Hi Ex, a bullish statement cannot always be taken at face value, and nobody likes the responsibility of spreading alarm by making dire predictions, but the financial weather has been overcast for quite some time and it is now showing up in the marketplace.

        Now is not the time to counsel caution, those days are behind us. The bargain hunters will be few and far between, the investment trusts which are expected to show up by making new purchases are bewildered. The bankers cannot be expected to support prices when their livelihood is in jeopardy. The support is crumbling. When the pendulum which has swung so high on the upside reverses as it now has the downside will be as great as the upside was. DT

          Apr 29, 2023 29:06 PM

          Yep, it’s going to be a wild ride…

        Apr 29, 2023 29:35 PM

        And too big to jail.

          Apr 30, 2023 30:45 PM

          Yes, that’s also the case…

    Apr 29, 2023 29:23 AM

    Wall Street banks have most of the unpayable derivative debt and Regional/smaller banks are failing. Sounds like a plan to me.

      Apr 29, 2023 29:13 PM

      Yanis Varoufakis has the solution, “Let the banks burn.”

    Apr 29, 2023 29:57 AM

    Shad and Cory

    Great interview with Marc Chandler

    I think Marc’s perspective is correct. The USA Federal Reserve will not cut rates over the next 12 months; the May rate rise of 0.25% is probably done. However, the upcoming deficit/debt crisis (i.e., the debt ceiling “debate”) will shine a very bright spotlight on the USA interest payments on their debt ($929 BILLION American Dollars at the end of Q1 2023. see link below). Therefore, the Federal Reserve will not be able to raise rates after the “debt ceiling” debate and resolution (July?), and will most likely “Pause” for upwards of a year to let the economy stabilize: Goals will be: Inflation=Down, Unemployment=Up, GDP=Down, Stocks=Down.

    Part of this stabilization process could result in a tectonic shift of wealth out of stocks and into old-fashioned savings acounts (4-5%) at local/regional banks [This will be especially from retireees that have lost so much wealth within their 60/40 retirement funds and, additionally, have lost confidence in financial advisors]

    From a precious metals perspective, I believe the highest probability outcome should be a steady uptrend in Gold and Silver, as they adjust their value relative to World-Wide Debt (Government, Busines, Consumer). WIth respect to PM stocks, I firmly belive that the high quality, hand-picked Explorers will benefit, even though the overall stock market will be declining over the same period, due to the resource colonialism that is now in full-gear.

    On another note, I believe the unemployment numbers have been lower than expected, due to the 4 MILLION people in the USA, that have stopped working (or looking for another job) due to Long Covid symptoms; these people are essentially moving to government subsidized disability benefits.

      Apr 29, 2023 29:59 AM

      “Three years after the start of the pandemic, some 16 million Americans have long COVID, meaning their symptoms continue well after the initial infection. An estimated 4 million people say long COVID has significantly reduced their ability to carry out day-to-day activities. For many of them, that includes their jobs. Economics Correspondent Paul Solman has the story.”

      Apr 29, 2023 29:03 AM

      BrianE – Thanks for the kind words of feedback with regards to the Marc Chandler interview. We appreciate getting his unique take on general markets, bonds, currencies, and macroeconomic data.

    Apr 29, 2023 29:52 AM

    Somehow I think I approve of Christopher Aaron’s opinions. Ever Upward!

      Apr 29, 2023 29:32 PM

      Christopher is a very sharp guy, and I tend to agree with him that the cup and handle pattern has become slightly invalidated by the higher series of 3 peaks well above ($100-$150 above) the 2011 high of $1921. In addition, as he pointed out the super long consolidation sideways (but not a contained downward channel like would have been a typical handle).

      In contrast, I resonnate more with his rectangular consolidation below the $2050-2089 ceiling, eventually flipping and adding the distance of the trough to the breakout point, giving us a $2500+ gold price in the next 12-18 months.

      I also thought his view that we may be in the 5th wave of the bull market that started at the Dec 2015 major low of $1045, culminating in the $2500+ peak, was much different than many of those calling for much higher prices in the $3,000-$4000 range on this move. If that outlook is correct, then the 5 wave move higher from Dec 2015 to next year, will be followed by a 3 wave A-B-C bearish consolidation back down, after this coming big move higher.

      Many PM investors, that wanted to see big breakouts to higher levels before deploying their cash will finally get giddy and bullish at the top of this coming move, (likely becoming the next batch of bag-holders), when they should have been getting uber bullish on PM miners last July and September when the valuations were silly and worth getting giddy about.

      That’s an interesting take that pulling profits in a year or so at the next peak may be wise, and an idea I’d also been considering figuring since blast off in Jan 2016, that the run higher in the mining stocks has already been going on 6-7 years already… I feel like we are 2/3rd’s of the way through this bull market at this point, yet many are claiming, bizarrely, that we are in the first inning. The first inning was clearly 2016, where gold tacked on a few hundred bucks, silver rallied bigly, and the mining stocks ripped higher by 300%-1000%. That’s a first inning and was 7 years ago now

      So many commentators (erroneously) keep suggesting the bull market didn’t start until 2019 (even though the metals and miners were up substantially from where they begun their journeys in late 2015/early 2016). Even before 2019 began there was another big rally frim Oct 2018 through the Q1 Run of 2019.

      So people using the point years after the PM rally began from the Spring of 2019, thus have much longer timelines for how long this current run will go, as they negate Dec 2015 through May of 2019, which is an error in judgement.

      The sad truth is that many investors simply failed to accumulate positions during that time period (most stocks or PM ETFs never made lower lows than their Jan 2016 lows when the bull market began). Most investors are not the contrarians they think they are, but rather are herd animals that feel good buying long after a sector or stock has moved up a large amount off it’s bottom, and is already well into a bullish impulse leg higher. The reality is that most investors are merely trend-followers, not buying low and perpetually missing the easiest gains off bottoming periods. Rinse and repeat.

      It was the same thing even with the recent dips last year, when some stocks did stillretrace down bigly. So now, folks that missed years of opportunities to buy low are hopeful that there is much longer to this current rally than there actually may be.

      Most blindly assume there are many years ahead to the coming PM rally, and maybe there will be…. but not without corrective digestive periods. Most commentators using intermarket analysis or focused on macroeconomic themes, are not expecting a disheartening 3-wave A/B/C consolidation phase after the intermediate top of this coming rally into 2024. It was the same when we saw the PM sector top out in for large consolidations at the peak in Aug of 2016 through Oct of 2018, and then again in Aug of 2020 through Sep of 2022. Everyone was so sure those rallies were going to keep on going, and anyone suggesting they were really overbought on most time frames, and that it may be a good time to pull profits were berated as to their technical views, or rebuked as not being true believers of the rally to come. Well, we know how that all worked out…

      If we see another one of those drawn-out corrective periods, after Gold keeps popping up on this next run into late 2024, then most will overstay their welcome once again… just like Aug of 2016 and Aug of 2020, when they thought the sky was the limit. I guess we should eyeball Aug of 2024 carefully, based on the last 2 periods where so many thought the rally should keep going so much higher (but didn’t) in that month separated by 4 year periods…, but instead spent long periods digesting those moves higher, as the bull market has unfolded the last 7 years.

        Apr 29, 2023 29:48 PM

        My experience has been that no matter what someone thinks is going to happen, one may want to take profits as it goes, if you get any profits. During weak markets, maybe 50% or so may be a big #. During good markets, maybe 100% or more is good. Never expect much length to any upside move. Expect long duration to downside. Just my view.

    Apr 29, 2023 29:09 PM

    Just for clarity I do believe gold will probably break $3000 eventually, but was simply pointing out I agree with Christopher’s point that we may see a more meaningful consolidation after we get up to $2500-$2600 gold, before gathering the energy to start the next 5 wave pattern up through $3,000 gold.

    Apr 29, 2023 29:47 PM

    I have been approached by a number of investors wanting to buy precious metal stocks at this time, I tell them to stay out of this market until the financial air clears because I see a crash coming and there will be bargains galore.

    If the crash doesn’t happen there will always be opportunity where there isn’t so much uncertainty and fear. Likewise, if the crash does happen, I am waiting to deploy capital. DT

      Apr 29, 2023 29:00 PM

      The crash has already come in my market. Some of my stocks are under ten cents. The one I have done the best on is Fathom Nickel because my early buys were 5cents. Hard to crash too far from 5 cents.

        Apr 29, 2023 29:55 PM

        You think so, HEH! Your buy at 5 cents could go to .005 cents. LOL! DT

    Apr 30, 2023 30:29 AM

    Everyone knows that gold bottomed in 2015 and that the gold miners delivered a spectacular mean reversion in 2016 but the case for the bull starting in 2019 is a damn good one since that was the year gold took out the top of a huge 6 year base. Proof of 2019’s significance is easily spotted in the 14 month $700+ move that ensued following that 6 year breakout. (Note that just because an asset puts in a long term low does not mean that it is automatically in a bull market. For example, gold’s 1985 low wasn’t broken for 13 years but it sure was not in a bull market during that stretch.)
    Among many other things, since silver didn’t confirm gold with its own 6-7 year base breakout until a year later in mid 2020 it makes sense to suspect that this bull market is BARELY getting started even now in 2023.
    In addition, silver bottomed versus gold about 4 years after gold bottomed versus the dollar just as it did in 2003 (gold bottomed in dollars in 1999). The best moves in the sector, especially the miners, happen after major lows in silver vs gold and the 2020 silver:gold low was the lowest in history.
    We have entered an era of currency destruction and therefore inflation that will last for decades but few understand that fact so most continue to prematurely look for a major high for gold.

    The gold-silver miners now need to break out of their 7 year consolidation/base versus the stock market and they will. THEN we will see the kind of bull market that most no longer believe will happen.

    XAU:SPX monthly:

      Apr 30, 2023 30:48 AM

      Ditto…………… on……….. but few understand that fact so most continue to prematurely look for a major high for gold.

      JT Long…
      Gold in 1971,,,, $35
      Gold in 2023..$2000plus
      Gold in 10 yrs…
      with $32 Trillion in Debt going to $50 Trillion…. lol…… better get in and HODL….

    Apr 30, 2023 30:32 AM

    NG Energy had a 30% bounce last week

    Anybody an idea, what the reason was?

    At the KER interview from January is mentioned

      Apr 30, 2023 30:38 AM

      The extent and speed of the rally implies short covering.
      A pull back, maybe a bottom test, is now possible.

        Apr 30, 2023 30:18 AM

        (For NatGas commodity, maybe not GASXF in particular.)

          May 01, 2023 01:19 AM


      Apr 30, 2023 30:14 PM

      Getting close to point where there should be newsflow and hopefully it’s all positive

    Apr 30, 2023 30:07 AM

    I read this weekend:

    “Every five to seven years people forget that recessions occur every five to seven years.”

    “Reality will pay you back in equal proportion to your delusion.”

    Average performance sustained for an above-average period of time leads to extraordinary performance. This is true not just in investing but careers, relationships, and parenting.

    Apr 30, 2023 30:14 AM

    Shad and Cory

    I found myself re-listening to Christopher Aaron’s interview this morning. It would be GREAT to have him on the show at least once a month and/or when the trends change and he can give more insights.

    I really appreciated his steadfast, pure analysis of the charts; the discussion around multi-topping patterns and the rejection of the cup-and-handle narrative was most interesting. In a refreshing way, Christopher did not get sidelined by the POSSIBLE extraneous factors/catalysts (i.e., Fed rates, De-Dolloarization, Debt Ceiling Kerfuffle, &c) that MIGHT be responsible for the high-probability future trends of Au, Ag, and the mining stocks. Just a fantastic interpretation of the charts with a high-probability outcome.

    Perhaps it does not really matter WHY the Gold/Silver US$-denominated prices are going higher? I will just wait for reality to unfold before me … it’s going to be fascinating to both watch and participate.

      Apr 30, 2023 30:00 PM

      Yes, good points BrianE about many getting “sidelined by the possible extraneous factors/catalysts” as they forecast for the year(s) to come. Yes, Christopher is a very sharp technician, and his views of the longer-duration and shorter-duration charts are always worth considering. We do try to have him on the show every month or so with updates, but sometimes scheduling and travel can get in the way and cause longer periods between interviews. We did have Christopher on in February and March, prior to this April show, so we are in a mostly monthly groove now for scheduling.

        Apr 30, 2023 30:17 PM

        Great job as always guys!

          May 01, 2023 01:14 AM

          Thanks amigo!

    Apr 30, 2023 30:42 PM

    Gold bogies at this moment:
    2200 with pull back to 1977
    via BullionVault Spot Prices.

    Apr 30, 2023 30:36 PM

    SILJ just put in a new almost 3 year low weekly close versus GDX. The last lower weekly close happened just before the weekly breakaway gap of May 2020. SILJ:GDX needs to bottom before we can have a bull market in our miners.

    Apr 30, 2023 30:41 PM
    Apr 30, 2023 30:18 PM

    Silver topped at fork resistance and could easily drop roughly another dollar to bottom at fork support.

      Apr 30, 2023 30:41 PM

      That support fork is fairly steep, so silver may not drop far at all before touching it.

        Apr 30, 2023 30:59 PM

        That’s true; it could go mostly sideways until it gets there.

    May 01, 2023 01:08 AM

    Nice open but only took 30 minutes to take it red. Oh yeah…Fed Week. Lie and Fry.

    May 01, 2023 01:31 AM

    Another good set of drill results from Emo. Went green at open and then intervention came like clockwork. Let us see how much money they want to spend this week on price suppression. (I assume it isn’t always naked shorting)

    May 01, 2023 01:35 AM

    Deal Of The Weekend:
    JPMorgan gets loans and deposits (assets) for peanuts. Not clear who got liabilities of Republic, but might be Tax Payers on Fed balance sheet. Pretty good work for JP Morgan if you can get it.

    May 01, 2023 01:25 AM

    Safe Haven Or Industrial Demand? Why Silver Has Returned To The Spotlight

    By Hareesh V – Economic Times – Apr 30, 2023

    “Silver prices have surged to a near one-year high on the back of increased demand optimism and a weak US dollar. Silver’s boost comes from industrial demand, particularly from China, where consumption and industrial production have picked up after scrapping Covid restrictions. In addition to traditional uses such as jewelry, coins, and photography, new areas of demand have arisen for silver, such as renewable energy and electric vehicle batteries. The balance between demand and supply will be a significant driver for prices, with global silver demand outpacing supply.”

    “Though both gold and silver are considered safe-haven assets, silver is more of an industrial metal recently. Almost 60 per cent of global consumption of silver is accounted for industrial usage and the rest is for investment purposes.”

    “Silver is currently largely used in the areas of renewable energy such as solar and wind power. It is one of the fastest-growing demand areas for silver. Silver is an essential component of photovoltaic solar panels. As the demand for solar panels increases, so does the demand for silver. As per Silver Institute data, silver demand from the photovoltaic sector climbed 15 percent last year and is likely to surge 28 percent this year. Silver demand from this sector has been three times higher than its 2015 levels.”

    “The global shift towards electric vehicles is another significant driver of silver consumption. The commodity is used in the production of EV batteries and the production of electrical contacts and switches which are essential components of electric vehicles. Silver is also largely consumed in healthcare applications, water purification, and the making of smartphones, and electronics.”

    “The boost to the metal is also associated with a struggling US dollar, an alternative safe haven asset, which has been falling more than 11 percent from a twenty-year high hit last September. Hopes of an accommodative policy decision from the US Fed caused a correction in the US dollar. A weak dollar usually drives commodity prices higher through increasing demand.”

    “A spike in gold prices also attracted more safe-haven investment in silver as the commodity is often considered an alternative to the yellow metal. The balance between demand-supply would be a significant driver for prices. As per the Silver Institute data, global silver demand outpaces supply. Silver demand has increased by 38% since 2020 while mine production recorded a shortfall.”

      May 01, 2023 01:24 AM

      Great article on Silver Supply/Demand.

      Let’s not forget Platinum, too

      World Platinum Investment Council

      Bullet Points
      “Platinum deficit forecast for 2023 as demand to grow by 24%, while supply by just 3%
      due to severe constraints
      • Automotive demand set to rise 10% in 2023 on increased platinum for palladium
      substitution and higher loadings
      • Industrial demand in 2023 to increase 12% year-on-year, almost matching its
      strongest year on record
      • Investment demand in 2023 forecast to improve by over 900 koz on strong bar and
      coin demand and much lower ETF and exchange stock outflows”

      Hydrogen economy
      “Looking beyond today’s report we continue to highlight the strong link between platinum and
      the hydrogen economy. While hydrogen-related platinum demand is relatively small, it is
      expected to grow substantially in the medium term; as hydrogen demand becomes
      meaningful platinum could become a proxy for investors looking for exposure to hydrogen. An
      emergent new end source of demand for a commodity is a relatively rare occurrence and
      somewhat unique to platinum at this point in time, which only strengthens the investment
      case for platinum, particularly in a deficit market”.

        May 01, 2023 01:26 AM

        For sure. Platinum has the potential to rerate much higher relative to it’s ratio compared to Palladium, Gold, and Silver (as our buddy Steve Penny has pointed out a number of times). Platinum has been in the endangered species bucket, with many expecting electric cars to kill the internal combustion engine cars, and with it for Platinum demand to go extinct, but that process is going to take far longer than most have been forecasting. Also, as you rightly mentioned, there are new potential uses for Platinum like hydrogen fuel cells, not to mention the potential for increasing investment demand to move prices at the periphery.

        Personally, I’ve only got 3 stocks with meaningful exposure to PGMs at present, but over time may up that to 4-5 positions. We got on a platinum chat here just recently, which encouraged me to go add a starter position back into Jubilee Metals (which I had sold on the big move higher in 2021 after an epic run from 2018), and have been positioned in Sylvania Platinum and Stillwater Critical Minerals for a while as my other 2 fishing poles in the PGM pond.