Michael Oliver – Precious Metals Will Benefit As The Largest Asset Bubble In History Continues To Pop
Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, joins us for a discussion on how macroeconomic themes and technical momentum trends will impact the general US equities, gold, silver, and the precious metals mining stocks. We start off reviewing what will happen as the largest asset bubble in history continues to pop, where it is will continue to expose compounded errors in decisions and assumptions, made by individuals, businesses, and governments, that arose from over a decade of low to zero interest rates. That era of free money, fueled by a constant injection of central bank liquidity, resulted in the longest and steepest move higher in general stock market indexes on record, from 2009 to 2021. However, now the dynamics have drastically changed since then with the Fed’s intense period of monetary tightening, taking rates up over 5%, and with general equities and financial markets starting to unwind.
We reviewed how Michael had noted the momentum signals in the general equities having topped out in January-February of 2022, beginning a new secular bear market in stocks. With regards to the financial sector, he had warned in late January to early February of 2023 that the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) looked ready for an ambush, which then played out during March and beyond. He also noted that the broader and more diversified Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) started showing cracks over the same time period. Michael points out that piling into a narrow selection of heavily-weighted mega-cap leadership is skewing the major stock indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, giving investors and the media a distorted view of what is actually happening in the broader markets. He is watching for signals of a rollover to the current intermediate-term rally, where the general equities will enter the next leg down in the bear market, and that this should be a boon for the precious metals sector.
We review the relative strength that gold and silver showed in 2022, compared to almost all other asset classes, something he expects to continue moving forward. A primary factor that gold is sniffing out is that as the central banks will need to get busy printing more money in the near future, it will continue to devalue the purchasing power of fiat currencies, and will underpin a move higher in the precious metals. While silver and the PM mining stocks have lagged the moves in the gold, he expects that when sentiment does truly shift back to bullish in the sector, that they will take off to the upside “like a wet bar of soap,” catching up and outperforming the upward moves in the yellow metal.
The Implosion of the Biggest Stock Bubble in US History with Michael Oliver
WTFinance – May 11, 2023 #Video
0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Major macro trends Michael is currently watching?
7:42 – Why is the current market not normal?
15:00 – How will you know when the crash is occurring?
24:25 – Real Estate or other real assets to perform?
26:45 – What would it take for Michael to be bullish?
30:25 – One message to takeaway from our conversation?
Inflation vs. Financial Stability
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – 05/20/2023
Trader Vic just said that Blackrock just bought 5% of PSLV and thinks other big funds will follow Blackrock into silver.
He Bonzo … Here is a link Blackrock & silver. This is a good omen for the future silver price , IMO
Just wait till silver soars and the premium in PSLV goes back to 20% as it did the last time silver went to $49
Blackrock knows what’s up but that doesn’t mean that silver can’t go lower in the short term. There’s a good chance it will drop another 2 dollars if it finishes the week near today’s low.
However it is interesting that Silver, SIL and SILJ have bullish P&F charts while Gold, GDX and GDXJ have bearish ones. Gold’s P&F price objective is 1250 but the P&F action that followed last year’s bear trap makes me completely unconcerned about any significant breakdown let alone one that would take gold to 1250.
Matthew, a $2 drop in silver won’t bother me as long as it goes up to $200 and PSLV’s premium goes back to 20%
Bonzo, I’m with you on that!
+2 or +20
Don’t get carried away. Silver is not going to
$200 anytime soon.
No not soon but I’m guessing much sooner than you think.
Trader Vic said last week that silver would go to 1000. it could when Biden starts WWIII with China and Russia before Nov. 2024.
I will not be surprised to see triple digit Silver a few years out, but for now, I’d be thrilled to see it simply break above the $30 resistance areas and stretch it’s legs into the mid $30s for a while. Most silver mining stocks would really get moving in a big way should that happen, and from there the rest of the move higher to test long-term resistance at $49-$50 and then beyond will simply be gravy. (delicious gravy though…)
Shad / Cory , why has my comment just gone POOF. I posted it below BONZO
Hey there IrishT.
Your post had gone to moderation for some reason. Sometimes it is the links that causes that, or if you edit a post with a link then it automatically goes to that folder.
You should see that post now in the thread under Bonzo’s post. Cheers mate!
Home Prices Posted Biggest Drop Since 2012 In April 2023
Denial and cover-up remain the theme in our free and fair markets. Leadership at it finest.
Bought CDE, HL and SILJ this morning.
That’s a great looking HL chart. What will HL sell for with $200 silver?
HL would easily be north of 3 digits at 200 silver.
I bought more CDE and SILJ this morning along with more TSXV listed shares.
However, if the sector isn’t making a low now or very soon we could see much more weakness in the next few weeks.
I just listened to the guest Mr. Oliver…..Awfully great analysis…Thank you!
Much appreciated Larry.
Yes, Michael is a very sharp analyst and technician, and it is nice to start getting his thoughts on the KER.
HUI day chart…I think a low is due soon at 244/242 range…confluence plus huge volume breakout bar as support…I am betting that gets re-tested…glta
Emo had decent drill results again and got trashed with sell the news and other “emotional” rhetoric. The OTC went below .37 and before I could get my bid in, it turned. I bought 9000 @.38 knowing that the day isn’t over.
Schwab showing an RSI on EMo of 24.1 and big volume. Probably means nothing, unless …
I should have said resource estimate, but you will note that even ignoring lead and zinc #s, gold runs in excess of 1 gram in 2 of 3 properties reported on. Historically, those brownfields properties didn’t even report gold. Anyway, more to come.
Doc Jones summary of the resource is that MC well below fair value.
SLV is now at a significant price support so Friday’s close will be important.
It should be easy to see why things could quickly get much worse for the sector if this isn’t the low (or very close to it).
SLV vs GLD:
Thanks for the charts Matthew. I am beginning to wonder if that gap on the weekly chart of Impact Silver might get filled. It needs to shoot higher tomorrow or it will likely be on its way imho.
A breakdown here would suggest a move to that gap pretty easily (technically) and we know anything is possible especially with these TSXV stocks but I would still be surprised if it happened without some kind of scary macro development hitting all markets.
All things considered, that level probably represents a 5 to 10 times better value than it did in 2016. At .145 today the whole company would be selling for its piggy bank balance plus about $3 million which is nuts for a debt-free miner with IPT’s assets/prospects/potential.
Yes if it gets down there I will sell some of my royalty portfolio and back up the truck.
Powell Sparks Gold… At Least For A Day
Actions speak louder than words…but the right words from the Fed can have a big reaction.
Brien Lundin – Golden Opportunities – May 22, 2023
The roller-coaster ride of Fed rhetoric continues…and continues to drive the markets all over the place. In last week’s headlines, I first noted that gold was “Stuck In Neutral,” and a couple days later I shared that it was “Shifting In Reverse.”
“I guess I should’ve titled this issue ‘First Gear…Again.’ Because, while we’re not yet burning rubber, gold is moving higher once again — and we have Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to thank for it.”
Powell opened his mouth the very next day. Speaking at a financial conference, he said…
“The financial stability tools helped to calm conditions in the banking sector. Developments there, on the other hand, are contributing to tighter credit conditions and are likely to weigh on economic growth, hiring and inflation. So as a result, our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals. Of course, the extent of that is highly uncertain.”
“…We’ve come a long way in policy tightening and the stance of policy is restrictive and we face uncertainty about the lagged effects of our tightening so far and about the extent of credit tightening from recent banking stresses. Having come this far we can afford to look at the data and the evolving outlook to make careful assessments.”
“One of the things I’ve been stressing to you is that the Fed doesn’t want to surprise the markets. Even what might appear to be an off-the-cuff remark is carefully planned to deliver a message. In fact, some commentators noted that Powell appeared to be reading this statement, and thus there was no chance it was random or accidental. So he clearly meant to telegraph that a pause is the likely outcome of the Fed’s June 14th meeting.”
“The reaction in gold was immediate, with the price jumping about $20, as our chart indicates. Today, spot gold is down just a few dollars after Friday’s big jump. That’s encouraging, although the price is still well below the 50 DMA. So what to make of all of this?”
“Firstly, that gold and other investment markets are almost entirely driven from day to day by inklings as to future Fed policy. Anything hinting at more-hawkish policy drives everything lower, and indications of potentially more-dovish moves lifts every market. Second, ignore that first comment. Focus on the fact that we are in the closing stages of a four-decade-plus trend of ever-lower rates and ever-easier money…”