Dave Erfle – Reviewing Macroeconomic Catalysts, Pondering Which Ones Could Light The Fuse For Precious Metals
Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review some of the recent macroeconomic data points, and which coming catalysts could light the fuse for the precious metals sector. We start off reviewing how the FOMC meeting minutes, muted GDP number, and higher than expected PCE deflator news really comes down to Fed policy expectations around how much longer they will keep hiking rates.
Gold and Silver and related PM mining stocks have continued selling off and correcting down as some of the regional bank concerns have eased, and the debt ceiling brinksmanship nears it’s resolution. Dave provides technical support levels for gold, GDX, and GDXJ, but then goes on to outline a multitude of catalysts on the medium-term horizon, that could break the gold price and the rest of the PM sector higher later in the year.
We then shift the conversation over to the big disconnect in the move higher we’ve seen in the metals versus how the mining stocks have reacted . Dave also shares key considerations for how he is approaching investing in gold and silver stocks in the short to medium-term, within the context of a big picture outlook that precious metals are going to break out to new highs as this larger bull market unfolds.
US Consumer Spending Surges In April; Inflation Heats Up
Lucia Mutikani – Reuters – Fri, May 26, 2023
“U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in April, boosting the economy’s growth prospects for the second quarter, and inflation picked up, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again next month.”
Ivanhoe Mines CEO On The Commodity Market Upswing
May 25, 2023 – Bloomberg
“Robert Friedland, Founder & Executive Co-Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines, shares his view on commodity prices and whether a super-cycle is under way with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker at the 2023 Qatar Economic Forum. The government of the State of Qatar is the underwriter of the Qatar Economic Forum, powered by Bloomberg.”
Getting geared up to purchase CDE again- it’s closing in on the monthly BB again. Have traded in and out about 3 times but probably won’t this time around–thinking of holding it as a long term play since my average cost will be the lowest yet.
+1 Richard. (Doc Postma?)
I was planning on adding some to my Coeur position as well (today), but decided to look towards any further near-term weakness to scoop up some more shares.
If Silver does pull back down to the mid to low $22’s, then I’ll likely top up a number of Silver producers and developers.
Great interview. Made a lot of sense concerning where we are at this point in time.
Lakedweller2 – Thanks for that feedback on the interview with Dave E. Yeah, I also thought ot was a nice summary from him on where we are at in the economy and markets.
One Federal Reserve Note started out equal to the value of one United States Silver Dollar in 1934.
Even in the currently rigged commodity market, the United States Silver Dollar is now selling for around $22 Federal Reserve Notes, so despite best efforts to control silver prices and despite not minting United States Silver Dollars for decades, the Federal Reserve Note is now worth less than five cents against the actual United States Silver Dollar on the open market, and at the United States Treasury, almost $100,000 Federal Reserve Notes are pegged against each and every United States Silver Dollar still in circulation.
Hi Jerry, it is hard to say what will happen to the price of silver when the market crash comes. A lot of countries in The Western World will have to put themselves back on a gold standard and a lot have no gold or not nearly enough, and some have been dishonest in their reporting. The purchasing power of The Western countries will be paralyzed with their debt and the price they will need to pony up to buy gold to back their currency.
If the industrial component of their economies craters silver could get hit and not necessarily collapse but certainly not perform as well as most investors believe it will. I like to use history as a guide and if you look at the price of silver at the beginning of the Great Depression in the 1930’s it actually initially collapsed. This time around it won’t be a recession it will be a worldwide depression. DT
thanks for the comment.
At this point, … I believe anything is possible, and a slide down for silver is
not out of the question.
Our society won’t function without a prosperous home owning middle class, the reset which is now in progress will help restore an America that once had an economy not just for the rich. The system must be cleansed so we can become a nation of haves, but first this transfer of wealth will be bewildering to everyone. So very few of us are prepared for the downside of the pendulum’s swing. DT
DT………… I agree……
If you are interested in the direction of your society you need to listen to a really well educated American who is part of The Hoover Institute, (that is rather fitting if you ask me) his name is Victor Davis Hanson. In this video he explains what has happened to the prosperous middle class of the 1950’s and sixties. DT
Hanson has been spot on for a very long time…… I have been flowing him the last couple of years…
Classics have been lost…….. and the children are going to pay dearly…..
The BRIC nations are meeting in August in South Africa to discuss a new currency which will be backed by gold. The Americans will lift their debt ceiling in June and print more unbacked fiat funny money and offer that as their solution. It takes small wonder to decide which currency will be dominate in the very near future. This is by design for The BRIC nations, history is playing out once again before our very eyes. DT
And is happening VERY FAST……. sheeple are not even aware of it…….
Fed ‘Pause’ On Rate Hikes In Doubt After Strong US Data
By Ann Saphir and Michael S. Derby – Reuters – May 26, 2023