It was mentioned in the interview with Jordan that we don’t really see companies going out and increasing their production in major way or doubling it, but actually we do see that, and still hardly anybody notices or cares….

It’s not just Steppe Gold either, which I hold precisely because that massive increase in production paired with exploration upside makes them a “holy grail” gold producer. It’s also the doubling of production over the next year or so projected at Karora Resources as they have built out their 2nd decline, or I-80 Gold doubling of production from last year (with plans to then double that the succeeding year, and then double that again the year after that), or the substantial grade-driven growth and exploration upside that we’ll see at Calibre or Mako Mining or Silvercrest. Santacruz Silver has more than doubled their production output over the last year with many more mines. Avino Silver and Gold is going to massively increase production over the next 2 years bringing an additional mine into operation, and then bringing the old tailings into production. Gatos Silver has big production growth on tap over the next 1-2 years with great exploration upside. Cerrado Gold is going to double gold production over the next 2+ years. We just interviewed Silver X that will be greatly expanding it’s production profile over the balance of this year as their throughput and grade will improve. Equinox Gold is set up to massively increase it’s production output by the end of next year. We also talked today to Minera Alamos that just got the capital package announced to build it’s 2nd mine next year and more than double production. (stay tuned for that interview tomorrow).

So…. There is PLENTY of production growth in the PM sector to get excited about, but many investors are only seeing these companies where they are today (suffering from recency bias), and are not carefully tracking what the companies are communicating about where they are going in the next 12-24 months. Most of those companies that are doing all the right kinds of work to build legitimate longer-term value have corrected down with the rest of the sector, with investors shrugging off this value creation, and therefore creating a more compelling price/value arbitrage.

Then think about the many advanced explorers and developers also substantially increasing their resources, and yes in some cases seeing it go up 30% 50% 100% in a very short amount of time, yet selling down in the process on the low sector sentiment. Ounces in the ground have been getting less and less value over the last few years, and definitely over the last decade, despite the metals prices being at quite respectable levels and quite high historically. Companies put out resource estimates and economic studies crossing major milestones exactly as they messaged to the market they would, and these events are merely liquidity events for investors and funds to sell into.

There is much more going on than just the effects of margin compression on producers…. there is flat-out ambivalence to the PM sector by most investors at present, including many prior bulls or market participants. Valuations of the mining stocks to metals are oversold, and even amongst the mining sector, the good stocks are being discarded right alongside the bad & ugly. Good drilling news for exploration companies has been garnering the same wave of selling over the last 5-6 weeks and really for some time (with a few rare exceptions), so that isn’t because of inflation or producers margins.

The sentiment is still just in the toilet, even with gold having just been above $2000 in the recent past and Silver was up above $26. Sure a break above $2100 to new highs in gold will create some fanfare and headlines and will juice up the mining stocks, but they are starting from so far behind the 8 ball, and from such low valuations, that a break up to $2500 to raging all time highs in the metal, will likely not be enough to get GDX and GDXJ and especially most junior stocks to break out to all time highs.

Yep, that a sad but true state of affairs at present DT.

I don’t want to disparage the experts that are brought on the show for their opinions but when I listen to most of them these days they waffle and roll over. They don’t have a handle on what is going on out there, we live in a Mad, Mad, World. They try to make sense of investing by talking up a possible recession when the rules don’t work anymore. You can’t reason your way through this dilemma. To suggest that people should by gold and sell commodities is nonsense, the public is broke. They don’t have the time or the expertise to do so. They don’t have a clue about what has even caused all the inflation we are seeing in the system.

It is like expecting the Bull Market in conventional stocks to keep going up, it’s over, the printed money is going into a few high-flyers and that is sustaining the market for now, but it will not last. The prices at the pinnacle are over. The market is not readjusting itself into ” a more secure technical position”. Prophecy at its best even in normal times is the most hazardous of occupations. The skies are none too bright these days and that is a prediction that holds water.

There will be a panic, there will be a crash, we are entering a new economic era. The people in charge of the financial system don’t have a clue on how to guide the bridle, the system has proven itself to be too complex for them. The United States is the most bankrupt nation the World has ever seen, nothing but a major reset will allow us to travel down a different stream or channel. DT

Also added to Aztec again and just a few to snowline.

Good idea DT. As a warning to US Schwab holders, unless things have changed, their tech people don’t know the difference between a spinco and a share split. I got burned on the Vizsla spinco of their copper stock and the only way I could correct the tax errors was to sell both. I could not convince Schwab to even discuss it.I wrote the Vizla CEO to no avail as well as Eric Coffin gave it a shot.