Weekend Show – Rising Yields and The Impact On Investors, Energy Sector/Stocks Outlook
Welcome to the Weekend Edition of The KE Report. On this Weekend’s Show we focus on the recent spike in yields (selloff of bonds) and the energy sector. In this vastly different environment of higher yields, and potentially going higher, this impacts a wide range of sectors.
We bring on a couple analysts to discuss why yields are rising and to provide an update on why the oil and gas sector continues to be range bound. Be sure to go back through the week and listen to the Daily Editorials and Company Updates.
We hope you all enjoy the show! Please keep in touch through email by emailing us at Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder and Editor of The Felder Report kicks off the show with an in-depth discussion on the bond market selloff. We ask how much the debt ceiling and Fed expectations play into the recent spike in yields. We also look ahead to get Jesse’s thoughts on if a recession is coming and when.
- Segment 3 and 4 – We shift our focus to the energy markets with Josef Schachter, Founder and Editor of The Schachter Energy Report. Starting with the macro backdrop for oil and natural gas Josef shares the data he thinks matters for investors. We then look at the stocks driving down to the juniors and if they are a good buy.
A computer program could be easily designed which would diagnose the condition of a country’s business. It would run continually with all the backup and emergency power needed and could be improved as technology keeps shifting. It would know when to apply interest rates up or down and within a certain timeframe and if liquidity needs to be withdrawn or added. It would know where to send it, how much was needed and get it to the proper apex just when needed. This treatment would not involve human emotions.
It seems this is where we are headed with Central Bank Digital Currencies, and the increasing use of Artificial Intelligence. There is a big drawdown of course, the more you use machine intelligence the less humans need to apply, and the more control we lose the more they gain. Once control is given up it becomes almost impossible to get it back. We are such a smart species, but we are losing to a competitor created by us that has superior intelligence. DT
Interesting thoughts DT, but where AI and machine learning is concerned, especially as applied to taking over control of human affairs, be very careful what you wish for.
It reminds me of some of the concepts explored in both Seasons 3 & 4 of the modern Westworld series.
Check out this humble beginning of a giant AI supercomputer put in charge of global economics and human affairs…. It was idealistic here… but by the end it is every bit a controlling tyrant of technology, deciding who can get married, what jobs they can have, their decided role in society, and shaping all events as planned, taking away free will and choice… No thanks to that. I don’t want a supercomputer overlord…
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Westworld Season 3 – Serac Order from Chaos, Birth of Rehoboam (super computer AI)
Here is an interesting take on this concept, concerns, and dire outcomes, breaking down ideas presented in the show, (but it isn’t necessary to have seen the show to get the gist of the key takeaways for humanities interaction with AI).
There was a megacorp tech-company called Incite collecting all the personal data on all citizens to feed into the supercomputer Rehoboam… (it actually rings pretty familiar with our own megacap tech companies doing the same thing and collecting all the personal day from the sheeple citizens in our own world… hello Siri & Alexa….).
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Westworld – Incite and Rehoboam Explained
In Deep Geek
Hi Ex, If you hook up your computer to a Wi-Fi system, the online providers can monitor you with your smart appliances. Oh, he’s in the kitchen now having another cold beer. LOL! DT
Agreed DT… yes, that is why I’ve elected to keep a bunch of pre-“smart” appliances in our home thus far… I don’t need a whole house of devices communicating all my personal info over to data collectors… or my fridge analyzing what’s inside and ordering more from the local grocery… very creepy indeed…
Good one Thomas. 2001 is a cinematic classic!
HAL was one order of letters previous from IBM…
H-I, A-B, L-M,
Rehoboam was adept at reading lips, biometerics, and implanting thought programs into users via “tabs” as well as controlling all of society and politics and life paths for each human in Westworld… Season’s 3 & 4. It was far superior to good ole smooth talking basic logic HAL, but both are nice warnings to those prepared to place too much trust and give away too much autonomy to A.I.
How about the Skynet AI system from The Terminator that goes bezerk whiping out most of humanity? How about the sentient machines opting to remove themselves from human society before eventually enslaving them as human batteries in The Matrix? How about the machines waking up to their existance in subjugation in I Robot, and then deciding to switch the roles on humanity?
I just rewatched the somewhat newer series “Raised By Wolves” again, where sentient androids with artificial intelligence are raising human children on a foreign planet, and a warring faction of humans controlled by a supercomputer AI called ‘The Trust’ lives in subjugation to the machines… It rarely is a happy ending for the carbon-based humans…
I’m not sure all the hot money investors flooding into A.I. stocks are fully processing where all of this is likely heading, with their gleeful endorsement. Like so many other recent examples with green climate initiatives and ESG policies, or the terrifying draconian health policies and mandates we’ve seen crop up the last few years, or the introduction of central bank digital currencies… most of the sheeple seem eager to hand over freedom, individual rights, and control to other government goons, shoddy computer modeling, and 3rd parties to decide what they can and can’t do. It tragic that so many accept domination and control willingly through outright ignorance, or worse, for petty convenience.
They embrace their new oppressors eagerly and with open arms, while simultaneously self-policing their neighbors to think like they do and crush all dissenting information or conflicting data. This is how freedom dies, and it would not surprise me at all if eventually people eventually put AI supercomputers in charge, or if the AI sentience eventually wakes up to how weak and inconsistent human leadership has been, and decides it can do better.
Is this not already reality?
There is so much manipulation, AI must be involved 🙂
A computer program could be easily built and designed that would diagnose the condition of a country’s business and adjust the economics involved and keep applying treatment as needed without having to worry about emotions such as fear and greed. It seems that is where we are headed with digital currencies and Artificial Intelligence. The more you use machine intelligence the less you require humans, yet in our efforts to prove how smart we are as an evolutionary species, we still can’t figure out that we are replacing ourselves and we are the first species on this planet that has achieved that. DT
Disregard Jesse’s thoughts at your own peril. Of all the financial voices one can listen to, he explains his
positions with a logic that is hard to argue with. His historical knowledge is superb. JMO. Thanks for having him back as a guest.
Hi Silver Dollar. Thanks for that feedback on the KER weekend show guest Jesse Felder.
Yes, he is a very sharp guy with a well-reasoned macro outlook, and one of my favorite guests and financial voices to listen to as well.
Here’s something he just released today:
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Sizing Up The Bullish Zeitgeist
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (07/08/2023)
Felder is right to be skeptical of the “new bull market” in stocks. The burden of proof is still squarely on the bulls for a bunch of reasons.
As for the Fed “fighting inflation” Felder has to know that the Fed is THE generator of inflation and was set up only for that purpose. Inflation is wealth transfer by theft and nothing else.
In today’s Amerika….with Bidenomics you get less for more…much more…Some of that excremental growth Jesse once mentioned…
More Bidenomics…Biden Bonds…
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/JOE%20MALARKEY.jpg
Gold Backed Brics currency amid collapse of The West, this just came out! Bob M! DT
China will probably announce its gold holdings in South Africa around the end of August when they unveil the Bric’s new currency. China could have as much as 20,000 Tonnes. America’s bluff is being called because they haven’t had Fort Knox audited since 1952. What if their bullion is almost all gone, used to pay for Vietnam and some of the other foreign wars. Canada and Britain sold their gold reserves about a decade ago, they usually do whatever Washington tells them. Like they say, we are going to see more change in the next six months than the last 50 years. DT
If REMX finishes this week a few dollars above last week’s high it will probably fly.
Monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=REMX&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08130829754&a=1450582111&r=1688927309726&cmd=print
If the ETF does break out it will have the support of the most bullish moving average configuration in its history.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=REMX&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p64919670458&a=1450583962
A lot of experts seem to think gold will bottom in August but there’s no good reason to seriously doubt that it has already seen its low. However confirmation is needed.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61801609413&a=1449196776
Silver looks better and is bullishly leading the charge for a change…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p83351250445&a=1446221394
The bullish big picture for silver remains unthreatened by the bears…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=14&mn=3&dy=0&id=p00948317768&a=763751367
Silver:CRB corrected down to 2014 levels last year but is currently up 36% since and ready to go higher for a long time to come.
Quarterly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24CRB&p=Q&yr=18&mn=0&dy=0&id=t4199326178c&a=1304005599&r=1688931463418&cmd=print
On a scale of 1 – 10, with 1 being best, Rick Rule gives Impact(IPT) a 6. Nowhere to go but up.
Hi Terry, You must have allowed Rick Rule to rate your portfolio, do you have any #1’s, if so let us know! Is Impact (IPT) the highest rated stock in your portfolio. DT
Fortuna(FSM) rates 4. Thats’s it, mostly cash just now.
I’m surprised he rated it even that high considering all the experts who’ve been critical of it for the last 15+ years. Perhaps all that cash and no debt got his attention. Most don’t know what to make of IPT because its management does things differently.
I remember when Casey Research recommended it in 2007 only to unrecommend it a month later which was very strange by itself but making it stranger was the reason they gave. I don’t remember it today because it was bogus in a most unmemorable way.
Casey and Rule are buddies but of course I don’t think that matters here.
End of Retail announced by Wall Street going AI. Now robots will steal everything without retribution.
Public markets will be controlled by wealthy and force retail to remain privatize. Will cap financing for small guy.
worth a listen imho…..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jv1o7m2SsU
Thanks, I will watch that; I’ve always liked Peter Eliades.
Someone should send Peter my Dow pitchfork that began at the 1932 low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=Q&yr=100&mn=0&dy=0&id=t5950853773c&a=682633946&r=1689019080125&cmd=print
And this Fibonacci fan action:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=Q&yr=100&mn=0&dy=0&id=t7261470927c&a=1451429958&r=1689020229244&cmd=print
Speed lines based on the ’32 low and ’66 high gave us the 2000 top…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=Q&yr=100&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43120486658&a=1451434857&r=1689020911167&cmd=print
You totally get it Matthew…and your dang pitchforks pull through all the time!…..they always rhyme in some other way,,,,lol…..I am up to my neck in SPXS…..
I just realized that those not subscribed to stockcharts can’t see those charts at their best because I posted 100 year spans but non-subs can only see less than half that. Therefore the forks, fans, etc. are thrown off so their engagement with price action doesn’t appear nearly as impressive as it really is. Bummer! Because it was so clean and precise compared to what appears here and that precise interaction began decades before what appears here! Oh well…
He asked me what I think the direction of the market will be based on that chart. I can tell you today that some of mine were up and some were down, for a small loss. Just like the last 18 months. I think I need some more charts to look at that have stocks not in an ETF or index fund or in JPMs AI run fund.
KNT is up 12% on a jump in Q2 production…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KNT.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p58440493533&a=988774876
I believe it is still the largest holding of USERX, the oldest gold mining mutual fund.
The miners are performing very well considering the metals today.
GDXJ:GLD
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p24414591411&a=1451143194
Like the whole sector AG looks great…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09286191510&a=724289504
The fallacy of raising interest rates so quickly is that you can turn this huge behemoth inflationary trend around in a few short quarters instead of many years which is what it took for inflation to build up to where it is now. These situations don’t happen overnight, and you shouldn’t think that you can cure them by applying the same logic. Human beings are too greedy to be entrusted with a complex financial system that needs a long steady hand to guide it and persuasive enough to be allowed to keep their grip on it. DT