Dave Erfle – Have The Precious Metals Bottomed For The Intermediate Term?

Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review his technical outlook for  gold, silver, GDX and GDXJ, and what further pricing data he wants to see to indicate that the precious metals sector did just find an intermediate-term bottom.    One of the key signals will be silver, the GDX, and the GDXJ further outperforming gold on a percentage basis, and the PMs sticking above their 200 day moving averages. 


We discuss how the low sentiment in the summer doldrums has presented a good opportunity to pick up the very highest quality companies on sale, and that after the seasonally week period in late June and early July, that we normally see more interest in the sector moving into August and September.  We wrap up getting Dave’s thoughts on portfolio construction in an environment like this, and which types of companies he’s adding to and which ones he is avoiding.




Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to follow along with Dave’s market commentary.

    Jul 11, 2023 11:58 PM

    this shorting /ES will not be easy…stopped out at break even…..i never give a short anything….even if it costs me to re-enter…glta…..pop and drop is possible at 8:30 AM tomorrow…..with CPI etc…glta

    Jul 12, 2023 12:33 AM

    (IAU) (IAUX) i-80 Gold Announces Best Results To-date from Underground Drilling at Cove

    10 Jul 2023

    “Results Include 18.9 g/t Gold 29.3 meters and 14.9 g/t Gold over 32.7 meters and 15.7 g/t Au over 22.5 meters.”

    Jul 12, 2023 12:10 AM

    Ex, no doubt those are good drill results, you have been following this play (IAU) for quite a while. It looks you have a “Tiger by the Tail”, I’m not sure who sang that song as I don’t follow country music and it has been such a long time……….. DT

    Jul 12, 2023 12:55 AM

    next short of /Es…4528 to 4545…glta

    Jul 12, 2023 12:59 AM

    Big breakout for SLV:

    It has to be bullish that the comment section remains dead.

      Jul 12, 2023 12:39 AM

      With the exception of a dozen or so comment section has been dead for months.

      with the dollar at an annual low, the touted prospect of BRICS for a counter currency and backed by gold end of August, The bag holder gold pop up jubilation has set already set in as before, and their dregs largely remain dregs with underperformance.

      This finally could be the big one, who knows, certainly not anyone calling for it for more than two years.

        Jul 12, 2023 12:46 AM

        As usual you’re vapid and vacuous. Clueless.

          Jul 12, 2023 12:32 PM

          I’ll let, bell weather IPT will show the way, now up 4 cents from its recent annual low 22.5 and with 40k shares traded, let’s see if it can make a higher monthly low in July. LOL
          Meantime with minimal cash invested except some leverage , will sit with long dated calls on the majors which still have to breach their lows, and will likely be first out of the gate and gas UNG which has been fine since purchase
          Must admit the so called sheeple are getting greedy with this general market rally measured by spx. Those in the know are watching or holding the bag.

            Jul 12, 2023 12:18 PM

            If you were honest you would have noticed that IPT is up 20 percent since bottoming on June 30th while SILJ is up 12 percent since bottoming a day earlier. None of the gold/silver mining ETFs have matched IPT and IPT showed significant strength before the rest as I pointed out in real time.
            Being the bellwether that IPT often is, it should be no surprise that it took back its important “P” price pivot 3 days ahead of the ETFs and shot above a 50 RSI(14) reading 2 days ahead of them. As it turns out, IPT was “right” again when it didn’t stand out from the pack during the multi month potential bullish setup that fell apart weeks ago. It telegraphed that more time/work was needed but even I didn’t bank on the signal because I never fixated on my observations about IPT’s leading behavior the way you pretend that I have.
            You’re just a nasty weasel looking for ways to purposely misconstrue every little thing I share because you can’t stand taking responsibility for your actions.

    Jul 12, 2023 12:04 AM

    Two days ago I said “HL:SPY is ready to fly” and look at it now:

    Jul 12, 2023 12:47 AM

    The Canadian dollar looks great and notice that it bottomed with the miners last year.

    Jul 12, 2023 12:08 AM

    Joe and friends better buy more dollars, a lot more.

    Jul 12, 2023 12:14 AM

    The dollar ran into significant resistance 6 weeks ago which I highlighted at the time with this chart:

    Jul 12, 2023 12:44 PM

    Major’s breadth may have started to bottom out. I want to see the bullish percent and silver cross indexes both above their 20 day average, but I’ve started to add trading positions to my core positions. I’ll add the remainder when the double bottom breakout confirms and the breadth gets better on the longer term metrics (BP and SCI).

    It’s also worthwhile to take a look at the chart of 5, 10 and 20 year yields. They’ve reached resistance and gold can have a very strange interaction not just with rates, but with more forward inflation expectations and real rates expected for years out. We can get inflation numbers coming down and gold going *up* rather than down.

    I’m still pretty much only in actual producers, with the majors and growth oriented juniors. I totally agree the top quality is the place to be. The speculative plays going up in sympathy is a later stage thing and we’re likely just not there until gold consistently has a two on the front of the price.