Michael Oliver – The Breakage Of The Largest US Stock Market Bubble Ever Is Nowhere Close To Being Over

Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, joins us to outline the technical momentum factors that project the bear market in US equities has much longer and lower to go, but conversely that gold, silver, and the commodities still have much higher to run.   We start off reviewing what will happen as the largest asset bubble in history continues to pop, and that last week’s market weakness was the signal that the bear market rally, that started last October, has mostly run it’s course at this point. 


We discuss that the prior dozen years (2009-2021) leading up to last year’s initial corrective year in 2022, was an unprecedented rise in paper assets, fueled by easy money and low interest rates. However, this artificially created environment created incorrect assumptions and bad financial decisions from so many market participants, from individuals and institutions, to businesses and governments. The economy and markets became hooked, like a junkie, on the constant injection of central bank liquidity. Now the Fed has yanked the needle out of their arms and there will be further economic ramifications that we see unfold for some time. The dynamics have now drastically changed, after more than a year of the Fed’s intense period of monetary tightening, taking rates up over 5%. Michael believes that what we saw in 2022, is only the beginning of the unwind in markets, which could be one of the worst bear markets to come in US history.  


We review the relative strength that gold and silver showed in 2022, compared to almost all other asset classes, something he expects to continue moving forward.  A primary factor that gold is sniffing out is that as the central banks will need to get busy printing more money in the near future, it will continue to devalue the purchasing power of fiat currencies, and will underpin a move higher in the precious metals. While silver and the PM mining stocks have lagged the moves in the gold, he expects that when sentiment does truly shift back to bullish in the sector, that they will take off to the upside catching up and outperforming the upward moves in the yellow metal.




    Aug 09, 2023 09:50 PM

    Despite the tougher day in gold and silver prices, the GDX still closed in the green. GDXJ was down a bit in the red, but a number of PM stocks were actually up on the day in positive territory, which was a nice divergence to see.

      Aug 10, 2023 10:24 AM

      Hey Ex, Lion One drills 6.6m of 80.78 G/T AU at Tuvatu Fiji, this could be the main feeder, look for more as if their drill results aren’t off the chart anyway. DT

        Aug 11, 2023 11:34 AM

        Yep, I saw that from Lion One, and it is just continuing to stack up the bonanza grade drill results, and has been for some time now. I’m curious to see how things go as they ramp up into production over the balance of this year and heading into commercial production by about this time next year.

        The Hedgeless Horseman and I chat about Lion One in the editorial I’ll be posting in about an hour on the site, so stay tuned!

    Aug 09, 2023 09:37 PM

    I am waiting with baited breath for the umteenth time, for this bull market in PM miners. Years ago. It was sideways to down, and then Doc nibbling…

    Aug 10, 2023 10:16 AM

    Doomberg: “Our Fragile Energy Economy”

    Nate Hagens – The Great Simplification Episode #83 – Aug 9, 2023

    “On this episode, Nate is joined by Doomberg – the anonymous energy/finance analyst team (visually presenting as a talking chicken icon) who uses an energy lens to analyze global trends in the economy, with so far some remarkable accuracy. In this wide ranging discussion, Doomberg and Nate cover the interactions between geopolitics, debt, climate policy, and – of course – energy.”

    “How have the narratives created around different types of energy – from renewables to nuclear – affected current policy making around the world? Will the increasingly precarious state of the global debt and monetary system shift the geopolitical landscape? How have increasing global tensions combined with a rise in green energy policy affected nations’ desire for energy security – and what does it mean for future policy as we enter a period of decreasing energy availability?”

      Aug 10, 2023 10:51 AM

      Thank you, smart chicken

        Aug 10, 2023 10:27 AM

        Hey Terry, chickens have pea brains, but I guess you hadn’t noticed! LOL! DT

        Aug 10, 2023 10:12 AM

        Yeah, I like Doomberg’s take on energy, and he is a pretty smart green chicken.

    Aug 10, 2023 10:33 AM

    bingo….gdx feels the need for speed…..cpi questionable data supports inflation, enough….

    Aug 10, 2023 10:19 AM

    News Report:
    Pre-Market: whatever the News was:
    General Markets: up
    Metals: down
    Let see if the algos have it right for today

      Aug 10, 2023 10:30 AM

      3 hours after opening and my account turned green. Algos don’t know nuthin.

        Aug 10, 2023 10:28 AM

        Green is good…

        My account is down very slightly in the red today… (not so good)

        Aug 10, 2023 10:05 PM

        Soon as it went green, it turned around and wiped out the weeks profits …. like it had eyes in the back of its program.

    Aug 10, 2023 10:23 AM

    Downgrades and Warnings, Moody’s Investor Services outlook on 27 American Banks! DT

      Aug 10, 2023 10:26 AM

      Bank failures are no bigggee as we must have thought about repairing bridges in the next 100 years… give them that money under the table.

      Aug 10, 2023 10:29 AM

      DT – Thanks for that post on the bank downgrades. That point came up today in our discussion with Brien Lundin.

    Aug 10, 2023 10:16 AM

    markets…the /Gc is taking this opportunity to test the breakout bar of 7/12 with the breakout volume..that low is 1940ish……..Markets are amazing…

    a break below 6/28 bar could establish a new intermediate top has formed….not easy at all….

    Aug 10, 2023 10:30 AM

    just noticed…the /GC price in USD will not take off until it(USD) begins to weaken in value relative to the jpy yen…today still has an uptrend against yen…although the ABC up is extended to 1.272% expansion and testing the previoushighs……toppy toppy…glta

      Aug 10, 2023 10:26 AM

      Hi Larry – A lot of the folks we’ve been talking with expect to see the USD heading down to the 98 level. I’m not sure how that will shake out as to it’s individual ratio with the Yen, Euro, Pound, etc… but they should be moving up noticeably relative to the greenback.

    Aug 10, 2023 10:28 AM

    Uneventful analyst response on conference call. I’m wondering if I we’re the only one attending

    Added — VZLA @ $1

    Aug 10, 2023 10:41 AM

    Uneventful analyst response on conference call. I’m wondering if I we’re the only one attending

    Added — VZLA @ $1

    Added to FSM @ $2.89

    Aug 10, 2023 10:59 AM

    Uneventful analyst response on conference call. I’m wondering if I we’re the only one attending

    Added — VZLA @ $1

    That conference call above was SILVERCREST METALS

      Aug 10, 2023 10:25 AM

      Thanks for that 3rd clarification Marty (3 times a charm).

      I was thinking you were discussing a Vizsla conference call and was confused, but now I see you meant for Silvercrest.

      For the most part I skip most of those conference calls, preferring to read the transcripts as I can skim through them much faster than hanging out on a call, and then just talk to the company directly with specific questions or follow-up .

    Aug 10, 2023 10:58 PM

    Michael Oliver will be proven right about the headline: “The Breakage Of The Largest US Stock Market Bubble Ever Is Nowhere Close To Being Over”
    What does appear to be over is the impressive rise since late last year.

    Aug 10, 2023 10:05 PM

    HL closed with an oversold daily RSI reading. It’s already an appealing long term buy but a big gap down tomorrow (ideally an improbable 20 cents) would make it a very appealing short term buy as well.

    Aug 10, 2023 10:18 PM

    GLD’s rising 50 week MA is now just over 2.5% below and move to it would fill a big weekly gap from March…

    Aug 10, 2023 10:39 PM

    GDXJ finished up a penny on much higher volume than the last 3 days…

    Aug 10, 2023 10:43 PM
    Aug 10, 2023 10:00 PM

    IPT is still 22% off its June low and closed just above its 10 day MA for the first time in about 3 weeks.

    Aug 10, 2023 10:13 PM

    The silver-gold ratio is 6% below its lowest monthly close of 2008. A monthly close above it would also constitute a breakout from a 12 year old parallel channel. Such a breakout would be very likely to set off bull market moves that leave no one in doubt.

    Aug 11, 2023 11:30 AM

    While waiting for the PMs one might look at betting on the fall in markets that Mr. Oliver is betting on.
    Personally, I’m in SOXS and up over 27% in less than ten days, having bought the majority at $8.31 nd second tranche at 9.37. Just sayin’.